Kinamarknaden slår rekord ??

Fundering kring Kina utvecklingen..

 The China Analyst - 07/15/04
China Analyst
July 15, 2004 | Volume 1, Number 1
Safa Rashtchy 650 838-1347

The China Analyst is our weekly report on the Chinese Internet and technology market. Our commentaries are based on data we collect daily in China using our staff and consultants as well as industry contacts in Mainland China and Hong Kong. Our goal is not to summarize news, but to analyze the most important developments in Internet, online games, wireless services, economy, technology, consumer behavior, corporate activities, and government regulations, and to discuss how these trends impact both our existing coverage companies in China as well as the broader, long-term development of the Chinese Internet market.

Summary of Internet Activity in China (MM) Jan 2004 Jan 2003 Y/Y%
Total Active Users 80 59 36%
Dial-up Subscribers 49 41 20%
ISDN Subscribers 6 4 50%
ADSL Subscribers 17 7 143%

Source: China Internet Network Information Center, Piper Jaffray China Research

Summary of Telecom Activity in China (MM) May 2004 April 2004 May 2003 M/M% Y/Y%
Fixed Line Subscribers 290 285 233 1.8% 24%
Penetration Rate 21% 21% 18% - -
Mobile Users 301 296 230 1.7% 31%
Penetration Rate 21% 21% 16% - -

Source: Ministry of Information Industry of China, Piper Jaffray China Research

SLUTSATS:

Mobile växer med ca 40 %

Fixed växer med ca  25 %

ADSL växer med ca 150 %!!!

Ericssons fsg var ca 75 % Mobile 3 % fixed  15 % Pro service (bla ADSL)  7 % Övrigt

Detta betyder sannolikt att  Ericsson kommer presentera mycket bra siffror för EM och främst Kina - eller??

Order Oceanien Asien
Q1 5,6 nya kontrakt bara Kina =0,7
Q2 7,6 nya kontrakt bara Kina =0,9
Q3 7,3 nya kontrakt bara Kina =5,6 !!!
Q4 8,8

Q1 6,7
Q2 9,0 prognos

Order totalt

Q1 27
Q2 28,3
Q3 28,1
Q4 29,4

Q1 33
Q2 36 prognos

Största marknader Ericsson Q1 ack

Order
USA 12 %
Kina 7 %
Spanien 6 %
Indien 5 %
Italien 5 %

USA 14 %
Kina 9 %
Italien 5 %
Sverige 5 %
Spanien 4 % 

Alla Q3 kontrakt börjar ge effekt nu!!

Dessutom:

Andel GSM/WCDMA (Där Ericsson har ca 40 % av marknaden) är över 90 % i Kina 260 milj mot ca 25 milj för CDMA (Där Ericsson bara har ca 10 %)