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1/2 day trading in Sweden today. Auction @ 11.55, close 12pm UKT.

Q3 REPORTS:

AKER SOLUTIONS: Q3 better. EBITDA 1,122m, cons 1,102m, margin 10.1%, cons 9.9%. Order intake of NOK 16.9bn and backlog of NOK 59.6bn. Initially, we find the mix in the report better than the EBITDA number suggests. Margins in core divisions Subsea and Drilling Technology both came in higher than expected (beat of 0.7% & 0.9%), while Umbilicals still struggle and only reported a margin of 1.5%

SPONDA: Q3 EBIT 45.1m, cons 45m Rev's 2% light, compensated for by lower costs. Guid in line, Net to grow 6-8% vs moderate increase.

RAMIRENT: Q3 EBIT slightly 3% below cons 29.7m, cons 30.7m, guidance unchanged.

DETNOR: Q3 LBIT of NOK 2,318m, mainly driven by exploration costs of NOK 403m and a write-down related to its Jette development field of NOK 1,881m (ann Q2 mid Aug) - effectively writing down 80% total development cost so far.NOTE we had exp'ed write down 250m !! Due to Norwegian taxes, net loss becomes -589m. Jette is a marginal field carrying just 0.7/sh in our NAV - this value likely to be removed. .Case is still about Johan Sverdrup.

GREIG SEAFOOD: Q3 soft EBITDA -29m, cons +9m, Harvest 15,233 tons, cons 15,664 tons Production guidance of 72.5K for 2012 and 70K ton production next year (consensus 2012: 70K, consensus 2013: 72K).

Q3 due DNO; VAISALA; BONHEUR; GANGER ROLF

NEWS:

TELENOR: CEO opens up to the possibility of selling Telenor's stake in Vimpelcom. This is a first and very positive should it happen. It would not only bring in proceeds in the area of NOK 40bn, but it would also remove a lot of the negative stories and uncertainty.

NESTE OIL: Shell warns refining boom to end soon. Fast declining Neste reference refining margin should well affect Neste shares and now as the share has “recovered” close to EUR 10, we would rather Sell than Buy the stock at these levels.

YARA: Urea prices still under pressure.Urea prices down 5.4% this week (fob Yuzhny); nitrate premium up to 41% this week on lower urea prices; India tender with prices at USD 405/t cfr – marginally up from previous tender ; Chinese urea production up 22% y-o-y in September and up 12% Jan.-Sept. We say cont to stay away, downside risk to our Q4 f/c's

BROKERS: COLOPLAST - DNB d/g Hold to Sell

MHG - DNB u/g Sell to Buy

RESEARCH:

FRONTLINE - UPGRADE to HOLD from Sell; maintain PT NOK 12.9. Frontline 2012 will invest in newbuildings across "any" commodity shipping segment and charter them out as the market rises. With limited free float and a tight group of investors on a longish journey, this stock does not lend itself to normal recommendations so we have changed our Sell rating to Hold.

PT ADJUSTMENTS

TDC- Cut PT to DKK 44 (46); reiterate Hold. Weak earnings momentum ahead-we expect EBITDA to decline by 3% in 2013. TDC may also announce a more aggressive strategy for 2013-15 at its upcoming CMD on 6 November which could threaten dividend forecasts and cash flow further.

METSA BOARD - Cut PT to EUR 2.45 (2.65); maintain BUY. Cut EBIT estimates by 1-3% for 2012-14.

TGS-NOPEC - Cut PT to NOK 211 (212); maintain BUY. Factoring in marginally higher amortisation we cut EBIT and EPS estimates for 2012-14 by 1%. We still carry upside potential on 2013 investment assumptions.

LEMMINKAINEN- Cut PT to EUR 15.5 (17); reiterate HOLD. Cut our EPS estimates by 27% for 2012, 6% for 2013 and 4% for 2014 mostly due to the Q3 earnings miss.

NORWEGIAN CAR CARRIERS - Cut PT to NOK 2.7 (2.9); maintain BUY.

PROSAFE - Raise PT to NOK 55 (52); reiterate HOLD. Cut EPS estimate by 4-8% for 2012-14 based on an increase in our opex assumptions for some rigs.

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Helgdagar 2012

This week the Euro short base has traded to a 12 month low (post hitting a record high in June). The Euro continues to trade above key support at 1.2835. The Euro and S&P have been a market of one for the last 18 months (0.83 correlation) Recent price action suggests this relationship is diminishing (the historic range was -0.2 to +0.2) which we see as constructive. In the absence of an Apple rally from support (although should note $589/90 held), the S&P performance was impressive.

Of particular note was the 2.7% rally in cyclicals - this was closely linked to the steepening in US inflation break-evens where the curve steepened despite USTs remaining surprisingly well bid. UST 10yr yields are following currencies with increasingly compressed volatility but continue to hold key support at 1.7%.

S&P resistance at 1435 will be significant and will provide a challenge to make further short term highs (and a good region to reduce liquid delta if added sub 1410). We are on watch for a close through 1442/3, which will signal a reinstatement of uptrend. We remain positive on equities, expecting no major move lower despite significant demand for downside protection, with credit and funding (swap spreads back to lows) intact.

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