S&P 500 Commercials=

Optionslösen denna vecka-Larry Williams "OOPS-buy på HOURLY-SPX chart" samt SEASONAL-trading talar för ett potentiellt rally from idag även om det långsiktigare är ett fortsatt bearmarket;

S&P500 Seasonal buy

Commercials än mer pessimistiska...voine...voine 

Det skulle vara väldigt intressant om någon kan rota fram en graf över hur det såg ut 2002, skiftade Commercials över till bull innan marknaden orkade lyfta då? 

Letade efter förklaringar till figur och hittade denna

edit: Gillade jag speciellt texten "The small investors are often looked at as the example of what not to do in futures trading"

Chart för 2002 här

mvh

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#3,

-Yupp...kolla upp själv;

S&P500 

Voine...voine...pessimismen ökar..;

Banker & finansinstitut ökar S&P500 säljpositioner.

commersials är ju sämst. är det inte de banker o institut som fått oss i denna härva? hur går de  'tunga' hedge fonderna då? hälften av dem verkar ju gå i putten.  

Detta ser inte trevligt ut (länk). Commercials är brutalt negativa. Ruskigt.

edit: Det positiva är att det knappast kan bli mer negativt. Historiska siffror från 2002 är jämförbara.

mvh

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

räknas madoff som commercial? räknas deutche bank som commercial?

"These three categories (Commercials, Large Speculators and Small Speculators) are based on the following definitions:

Commercials (aka hedgers) are people or companies that deal with actual commodities as part of doing business. They trade in those futures as a hedge against the risks they run in the course of that business. Commercials are exempt from position limits and post smaller margins than speculators.

Large Speculators are traders whose trading levels are high enough that they require reporting to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). These trading levels vary from one commodity to another, and often from one year to another.

Small Speculators are the traders remaining after the Commercials and Large Speculators have been subtracted from the total open interests.

These three divisions are not quite so well-defined in reality as shown above. Successful small traders become large traders while unsuccessful large traders become small traders, and commercial ?hedgers? often trade on speculation.

Though there are no hard and fast rules about the success of each of these divisions, it is generally assumed that the Commercials are the most successful. The large speculators used to be successful as well but in recent years have done poorly as a group. The small investors are often looked at as the example of what not to do in futures trading.

The motivating factor of a given group should also be taken into account. It should be remembered that the commercials are often short because they are hedging while the small investors are often long due to unflagging optimism.

The actual values are less important than the current trend. Are commercial traders reducing their position or increasing it? Also compare to past years to get an idea of typical holdings particularly for the commercials." 

tackar! 

Bruna staplar finner man i Br Punds och Swiss Francs.

mvh