Rallyt över?

För dom som inte orkar. Detta är summan av kardemumman

Summary

The price pattern of the rally which started on 11/21 is corrective i.e. a short-term rally in a bear market, and the daily oscillators are overbought and beginning to roll over. This signals that a reversal to the downside is near which could bring about a test of the recent lows, or even new lows.

However, the hourly indicators turned up on Friday, signaling that there could still be another small push to the upside. Next week's Fed meeting and the unresolved situation with the auto industry can affect the market in the short term. 
 

"Markets are never wrong - opinions often are"

Även vix visar en trend vändning i sikte. Medan denna inte kan säga åt vilket håll så visar den wedge som bildats att ettutbrott skulle ge uppgång medan en studs och nya högre tal skulle trycka iväg Index mot en ny nergång. 

"Markets are never wrong - opinions often are"

Här är ett chart på vix.

"Markets are never wrong - opinions often are"

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Frågan är om OMX gör en typisk upp i öppning och falla hela dagen rörelse?? 

"Markets are never wrong - opinions often are"

Jag har sett tecken på att saker o ting inte är sig riktigt likt i helgen, tom tomtarma verkar ha spårat ur, nej det kommer gå utför hädanefter och hur ska det gå med julrallyt med dessa tomtar? 

Varning känsliga personer bör ej se bilden!

Mvh pricken

P/Es and Stock Prices
Our forecasts imply S&P 500 operating earnings of $40 per share in 2009, down 35% from our $62 estimate for this year. That may sound extreme, but not for the most severe worldwide financial crisis and deepest global recession since the 1930s. At stock market bottoms, the S&P 500 P/E tends to be in the 10-12 range. But low interest rates normally push up P/Es and 10-year Treasury now yield 2.66%, and will probably be even lower later while 30-year Treasury bonds are now at 3.0%, our long-held target, and also a low in recent decades, but may drop further.

So a P/E of 15 at the stock bottom sounds reasonable, but would put the S&P 500 index at 600 then, down 32% from here and 61% below its record close on Oct. 9, 2007. Wow! Earlier, we warned of the number 777, not the Boeing airliner model but the low on the S&P 500 in 2002. If it were breached, we noted, then the bear market that started in early 2000 would still be intact, and all of the rally from the 777 low in October 2002 to the peak five years later would merely be a rally in a bear market. Last month, the S&P 500 fell below 777. It has since bounced, but probably not for long as new lows lie ahead.

There are other reasons to expect considerable further weakness in stocks. High dividends can support stocks at least to a degree, and dividend yields in Europe are meaningful, averaging 5.2%. But not in the U.S. where the S&P 500 yield is a miserly 2.5%. And dividend cuts are coming fast and furious. In the U.K., dividends are constrained for financial institutions getting government bailouts, while in the U.S., the financial sector is slashing dividends.

Some 36 of the S&P 500 have cut dividends 46 times this year, axing $33.8 billion, with $30.8 billion coming from financials. Among those S&P 500 firms, about 20% of dividends this year are from financials, down from 34% in 2007. Elsewhere, REITs are cutting payouts, and GM eliminated its dividend. Only 202 S&P 500 companies have initiated or raised dividends 218 times this year, representing payments of $18 billion, with only $2.4 billion being from financials. In 2007, 298 did so and only 12 reduced or suspended dividend payments.

In troubled times, investors tend to withdraw from foreign markets to concentrate on the home scene they know best. That's why bear markets tend to be uniform. U.S. investors sold a net $92 billion in foreign stocks and bonds in the July-September period, a record flight from overseas investments, while foreign investors pulled over $100 billion from stocks in Japan, South Korea and India so far this year. U.S. stocks are actually falling less than most foreign markets.
P/Es and Stock Prices
Our forecasts imply S&P 500 operating earnings of $40 per share in 2009, down 35% from our $62 estimate for this year. That may sound extreme, but not for the most severe worldwide financial crisis and deepest global recession since the 1930s. At stock market bottoms, the S&P 500 P/E tends to be in the 10-12 range. But low interest rates normally push up P/Es and 10-year Treasury now yield 2.66%, and will probably be even lower later while 30-year Treasury bonds are now at 3.0%, our long-held target, and also a low in recent decades, but may drop further.

So a P/E of 15 at the stock bottom sounds reasonable, but would put the S&P 500 index at 600 then, down 32% from here and 61% below its record close on Oct. 9, 2007. Wow! Earlier, we warned of the number 777, not the Boeing airliner model but the low on the S&P 500 in 2002. If it were breached, we noted, then the bear market that started in early 2000 would still be intact, and all of the rally from the 777 low in October 2002 to the peak five years later would merely be a rally in a bear market. Last month, the S&P 500 fell below 777. It has since bounced, but probably not for long as new lows lie ahead.

There are other reasons to expect considerable further weakness in stocks. High dividends can support stocks at least to a degree, and dividend yields in Europe are meaningful, averaging 5.2%. But not in the U.S. where the S&P 500 yield is a miserly 2.5%. And dividend cuts are coming fast and furious. In the U.K., dividends are constrained for financial institutions getting government bailouts, while in the U.S., the financial sector is slashing dividends.

Some 36 of the S&P 500 have cut dividends 46 times this year, axing $33.8 billion, with $30.8 billion coming from financials. Among those S&P 500 firms, about 20% of dividends this year are from financials, down from 34% in 2007. Elsewhere, REITs are cutting payouts, and GM eliminated its dividend. Only 202 S&P 500 companies have initiated or raised dividends 218 times this year, representing payments of $18 billion, with only $2.4 billion being from financials. In 2007, 298 did so and only 12 reduced or suspended dividend payments.

In troubled times, investors tend to withdraw from foreign markets to concentrate on the home scene they know best. That's why bear markets tend to be uniform. U.S. investors sold a net $92 billion in foreign stocks and bonds in the July-September period, a record flight from overseas investments, while foreign investors pulled over $100 billion from stocks in Japan, South Korea and India so far this year. U.S. stocks are actually falling less than most foreign markets.

"Markets are never wrong - opinions often are"

jepp, jag har oxå 600 som mål nu

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

Vart man än vänder läser man att jullrally och januaryrallyt är på väg. Bruksr det bli som de flesta tror? Jag håller på dragis och steff. 

nja, jag vet inte om det rasar på direkten. jag håller på nils bohr

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

Isn't safe haven kinda giving an opinion, which is "often wrong" . ??? like you said :-)

just saying ???