Prechter: Be aware

har han slut på vågor nedåt?

eller är det minnen från dippen i oktober 1987? 

Gammal är äldst.

Jag är inte prenumerant men gissar att de nu räknat till 53, och med 52 komplex så kan 54&55 gå ganska snabbt.

Eftersom det handlar om en lång-tids short (från 2007 tror jag) så tycker man nog att det är bäst att gå ut i god tid, även om det kan vara några dagar kvar innan botten (enligt deras räkning).

Jag gissar att han har fel, sa se upp nu, med nasta vand datum 13 mars. Det betyder formodligen att 3000 dj ar in the cards:). Har sett 4611 som lagsta botten bland analytiker, med mest positiva pa 6100. Vet att det mest dystra innan oktober raset jag hittade var dj 10000, och dj foll over 2000 pinnar lagre an den dystraste prognasen da, som jag kunde hitta. Undrar om det ar detta han hanvisar till med snar vandning??

Mvh usdollar

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Fredagens recap of the wave battle. neely vs prechter.

 TIming of the Bottom
Tonight's STU attempts to estimate the coming interim bottom using a pattern of between 247 and 254 days that has come and gone and come back again in the S&P: Between Mar10 and Mar18. Now, they are the first to be skeptical of timing models and turn dates, especially based on patterns, which can come and go, but this timing may fit the current wave count: we are close to finishing wave 3 of (5) down, and then should have a relatively sharp wave 4 reversal and a final wave 5 down, which might truncate. All this may happen next week, or (more likely) extend a bit in time into the turn window.

Neely also sees little near term downside and a coming rally, followed by his huge shorting opportunity of a market meltdown. Hence he says to close out short positions. The rally could be pretty strong, certainly back to the S&P 800s, but as yet he does not see the type of Obama Hope Rally seen by the STU: a 38% - 50% retracement of the whole drop from 2007. Instead, more like the wave 4 rally, although a longer and more extended one than seen by the STU, followed by a stronger and deeper wave 5 drop. Note that their methodologies are related but different, and their counting systems are different - to Neely this short rally will be an X wave before his deep drop.

Wildcard is the continuing banking crisis, which is not abating. In the US, Citi and BofA are not out of trouble, and indeed may need further bailouts or complete restrucuring to survive. In Europe, banks continue to deteriorate, particularly those over-exposed in real estate (Englosh banks) and Eastern Europe (Austrian banks among others).

Mvh usdollar