AG enda

glest 4 6pack

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

zero

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

marketwatch

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

sakso

Commodities under pressure
USD strength is putting pressure on commodities.







Calendar
EC09:00Consumer Confidence (JUN)-30-31
US12:30Chicago Fed National Activity (MAY) -2.06
US14:30Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (JUN)-17.5%-21.5%





What's going on?
· US Personal Income MoM (May) rose unexpectedly on Friday (+1.4%), but that was due to extraordinary social welfare payments. Excluding this effect, personal income dropped 0.1%. On the same note, the US savings rate increased to 6.9% of disposable income (not including the paying down of debt, so the savings rate is actually even higher). The highest level since 1993). The savings rate is negatively correlated to aggregate profits, so one should expect weak profits over the next couple of quarters/years.
· Commodities are under pressure due to USD strength and treasuries are really well after the ECB EUR 442B lending operating last week.




FX
EURUSD+Buy dips to 1.4000-05 suppt area, poss 1.3975 for push to 1.4075, 1.4135. Stop 1.3930.
EURJPY0/-Seen pivoting around 134.0. Sell break below 133.50 or rally to 134.50. Target 133.0.
USDJPY0/-Sell rallies to 95.60-70, or a break below 95.0, for a 94.50 target.
GBPUSD0/- Risk of slippage to 1.6400-10, poss 1.6365. Buy here for 1.6550, stop below 1.6325.
AUDUSD0/+Look to buy sub-0.8000 for a re-test of Fri highs 0.8085. Stop below 0.7940.






Equities
DAX0/+Buy on dips towards 4730 and target 4830. Stop below 4710.
FTSE0/-Sell at the break of 4213 and target 4160. Stop above 4230.
S&P5000Neutral. Buy at the break of 930. Sell at the break of 910.
Nasdaq1000/-Buy at the break of 1484 and target 1509. Stop below 1474.
Nikkei






Futures
Gold0/-Sell around 938 and target 928. Stop above 942.
Silver0/-Sell at the break of 13.90 and target 13.65. Stop above 14.

Oil0/-Sell at the break of 68.35 and target 67. Stop above 69.






FX-Options
EURUSDIn general there were both sellers and buyers of both short-end EUR calls and puts
throughout Friday?s trading. EUR calls are still slightly favored, but the option market?s now seems
now seems more divided in expectations to spot direction, so ranging is very likely.

USDJPY The RR is favoring the downside a bit more, but no significant direction from the
options market. Ranging is also likely here, but with a better chance of spot moving down then up.

down than up.