Unemployment

Följande sammanställning från ZeroHedge är en intressant och gedigen genomgång över läget nu i USA. Tittar man igenom den så ser det väl inte riktigt ut som vi har "End of Recession". Recommenderas för alla som placerar på lite sikt. (Det var flera nya indikatorer som jag inte sett förr). Pdf

Mycket intressant rapport Ture, tack för den!

Mvh, /Leif

håller me #2 

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

Deutsche Bank - "By Q1, 2011 a projected 48% of total mortgage borrowers will have negative equity."

Dvs i stort sett hälften av husägarna har mer skuld än tillgång. Nu behöver dom ju inte få rätt i det, men om dom ens hamnar i närheten har jag svårt att se att vi stormar in i en högkonjunktur.

Undras om inte "Deutsche Bank" kommer att anses som förrädare på Wall Street. Och Karen Weaver får kanske silkessnöret.

Bloomberg har en notis också:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=ac9y1xr7yNhQ

Guess who ... asked the U.S. Treasury for a $10.7 billion capital investment as its eighth straight quarterly loss once again drove the ... company?s net worth below zero. A second-quarter net loss of $14.8 billion, or $2.67 a share, pushed the company to request its third draw on a $200 billion lifeline from the government The company, which posted $86.8 billion in losses over the previous seven quarters, has already taken $34.2 billion in federal aid since April. Detta bolag har stigit kraftigt de senaste två dagarna.

Aig kanske? Det har täcks en hel del stora blankningar där och den har gått upp kraftigt senaste tiden.

 

Mvh traction

Fast det låter mer som Fannie Mae.

 

Mvh traction

Visst är det Fannie.

Bifogar en insitksfull kommentar från FEDs ordförande:

July 16th, 2008 - Bernanke: (Freddie and Fannie) "?will make it through the storm", "? in no danger of failing.","?adequately capitalized"

hehe, han hade rätt på alla punkterna

joe6 fick pröjsa, men vaf--n, money goes round,round

bara bittra bears klagar lite varstans

av sjunkande antal betalande medlemmar på AG, verkar som att vi bears har det svårt just nu

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

fr ransq

NON-FARM PAYROLLS

US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls M/M (Jul) Exp. -325K (Prev. -467K), May -322K

Citigroup: -300K HSBC Markets: -375K
JP Morgan: -275K BNP Paribas: -350K
Morgan Stanley: -250K Credit Suisse: -275K
Goldman Sachs: -250K      Deutsche Bank Securities: -150K

Employment indicators in recent weeks have not favoured the outlook for today?s report. The most recent July ADP report showed that private sector jobs continued to be cut aggressively coming in at -371,000 vs. Exp. -345,000. Furthermore, ISM employment constituent fell by 1.9 points to 41.5, and the job differential for the Conference Board?s consumer confidence worsened.

There is however, a strong case to argue that seasonal adjustments could severely distort layoffs in July and show that fewer jobs were lost. Seasonal adjustments in the summer are usually due to auto maker plant closures but because many plants were already closed in May following the bailout of GM and Chrysler, this may cause an overestimated adjustment for this time of year. Indeed, Goldman Sachs did revise their call yesterday to a more optimistic -250K from a previous forecast of -300K.

Taking the seasonal factors into account RANsquawk expects NFP to come in around -300K.

Note that with the market balance tilted towards a slightly better than expected number, it may take a sub -250K reading to weigh on UST?s. Otherwise, any number around the expected -325K (+/- 50K) may well see the risk aversion trade put back on (i.e. positive USD/UST, negative equities).


UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

US Unemployment Rate (Jul) Exp. 9.6% (Prev. 9.5%)

In spite of the unemployment rate being a lagging indicator, it is rising at an unprecedented pace and with muted signs of stabilisation in the housing market has led many to believe that a recovery is too soon to call. Market commentators have noted that the usual relationship between jobless and other employment indicators has broken down recently which makes predicting unemployment accurately all the more difficult.

The consensus today is for a 0.1% increase on the month which would come as no real surprise given that the rate is expected to increase at least 0.5% more by the end of the year on Fed assumptions with US President Obama already noting on several occasions this week that he believes unemployment will likely rise above 10%.

Any surprises are likely to be on the upside, with a reading of 9.8% or above likely to spark weakness in equities as participants question the pace of deterioration in the employment sector. Any such reading could also negate a more positive reading on payrolls and see US Treasury yields come under pressure.

 

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

trimtabs courtesy of zeero 

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

mer beartalk, men nu är vi förvarnade, småbolag ska man låta bli shorta

MARKET COMMENTARY
We reported last week how Trimtabs CEO Charles Biderman was concerned investors were misreading initial US non-farm payroll data on account of not fully understanding the methodology that goes into compiling the estimates.

Joining "the payrolls are being misunderstood" brigade on Friday was also Gluskin Sheff?s chief economist David Rosenberg, who noted the much rejoiced-over reduction in the unemployment rate was actually due to a sliding labour force.

Others on Monday were also catching on, among them Stephen Lewis of Monument Securities who noted:

The financial markets last week greeted July?s US employment data as if they marked the end of recession. This was despite the fact that non-farm payrolls were reported to have fallen by 247K on the month. Admittedly, the unemployment rate subsided marginally, to 9.4% from 9.5% in June. But this was not a consequence of a rise in the numbers employed but of shrinkage in the workforce.

So it appears, according to Lewis, that many jobless people are giving up hope on the chances of gaining employment completely. As he notes, this is not a positive for the US economy. Causing yet more confusion, meanwhile, are particularly tricky seasonal adjustments to the July data. Lewis explains:
It is surprising, indeed, that the markets reacted so strongly to the employment report when they were aware, or should have been, from extensive analysis of weekly jobless claims figures that there are serious problems this year with the seasonal adjustments applying to July?s labour data. The annual lay-offs in the auto industry, which usually occur early in July, were not as substantial this year as they usually are, because large numbers of workers in this sector had already been laid off. The payrolls numbers are drawn from the Dept of Labor?s Establishment Survey, which relates to pay periods including the twelfth day of the month.

It is worth noting that this timing would have meant that payrolls were counted at the point where the claims data had been suggesting the distortion from inappropriate seasonal adjustment for auto industry lay-offs was at its height. Since then, the claims series and survey data have pointed to an apparent deterioration in the labour market. It is not entirely clear whether this represents a genuine worsening in labour market conditions or merely the unwinding of previous faulty seasonal adjustments. On either explanation, however, mid-July employment readings are likely to have been giving an unduly favourable view of underlying labour demand. Since the seasonal adjustment applied to July data is the second most extensive of the year (January?s being the largest), it would, in any case, seem unwise to base a view on the economy on these data alone.

Meanwhile, even if you consider the numbers at face value ? Lewis still sees no reason for optimism based on the fact that an end to job losses implies an end to cost-cutting, which only puts increased pressure on companies to deliver satisfactory performances from regular operations. As he explains:

In all, non-farm payrolls have already fallen some 4.8% from their peak in December 2007, far exceeding the rate of contraction in any downturn since 1948-49. Private payrolls have fallen even more sharply over this period, by 5.9%. More than 60% of these job losses in the private sector occurred during a six-month stretch within the overall nineteen months of the downturn to date. This six-month period ran from November 2008 to April 2009. This was when US companies resorted to the famous cost-cutting that so much flattered their earnings reports for the first and second quarters of this calendar year.

On average, private payrolls were 1.8% lower in 2009 Q1 than they had been in 2008 Q4, and were then a further 1.4% down in 2009Q2. Private payrolls in July were only 0.6% below their Q2 level, however. This raises the intriguing possibility that one reason why the payroll declines have slowed is that companies have completed the easy adjustments they could make to the sharp worsening in economic conditions that occurred last autumn and are now having to think harder how to keep the cost cuts coming. A corollary of this might be that US companies? earnings for 2009Q3 will benefit less from cost-cutting than in the two preceding quarters. US companies may have to achieve an improvement in turnover if they are to carry on delivering earnings surprises that please the markets. It may well take time for them to target and implement further cost cuts.

Source: FT ALPHAVILLE

det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA

11#

I also noticed that Lowry's is not very excited about the rally.

the astute Lowry?s service notes, "The greatest shortcoming of the rally from the March low has been the lack of volume." Lowry?s goes on to observe, "Both short and intermediate term indicators of price momentum have reached levels that typically lead to market corrections."

 With job losses continuing to rise -- Biderman projects they'll top 400,000 in July--he sees a new downleg in housing starting in the fourth quarter or in early 2010, spurred by an additional wave of foreclosures, chiefly among higher-priced homes. "How are people expected to pay their mortgages if they lose their jobs?," he asks. "The answer," he says, "is they can't."

One of the damaging offshoots of the continued housing slump, as he sees it: "Banks will be hit with a tremendous increase in non-performing loans."

Lately, Biderman has been negative on the stock market and he's been decidedly wrong, given the robust resumption of the March-June rally. To make matters worse, his model portfolio has been recommending a number of short sales (a bet stock prices will go lower).

"The rally has been painful," he says, but he's convinced "it's fake and unsustainable." For the past 35 years, he notes, money managers have convinced themselves you buy stocks on dips, and it has worked. But that game, he believes, will come to an end because reality should soon come home to roost.

On the liquidity side, he notes that buying by corporate insiders is way down, while insider selling is way up. In addition, there are virtually no corporate stock buybacks.

"You have unemployment going up, wages and salaries dropping more than expected, falling consumer confidence, and many people have stopped paying their mortgages," Biderman says. "The only real improvement is in the stock market, and common sense tells you it can't last."

The economy, he predicts, will get worse, not better, and he believes the Dow Industrials, currently at around 9150, should return to their March low (6547).

Accordingly, says our bear, investors should now be aggressive sellers of stocks. Or put another way, when it comes to the market, it's a good time to be a wimp.

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Jag tror att Charles Biderman har alla de fakta oc siffror, men han kanske glömde en sak, "don't fight the FED". Även det är kortvarig effekt, men FED kan köper index högre.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#13 Lowry fick en intermediate buy signal den 4:e augusti och har nu alltså svängt om till bullish. 

buy signal på long term det kanske fungera. MACD postive cross på monthly.

men short term, Vix close = 24.99,  P/C = 0.53 här om dagen, antal av aktier i Dow över MA50 = 93%, det bör komma ner lite.