Black Friday
"NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Discounters were doing well early Black Friday morning, with door-busters bringing in big crowds, while higher-end and some apparel retailers were seeing somewhat muted traffic despite big discounts.
Mass merchants like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and Target Corp. (TGT), as well as lower-end department stores like J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) and electronics retailer Best Buy Inc. (BBY), saw strong demand for big sales items, with electronic an early winner. But there was some robust demand for items tougher-sell items like cookwear and jewelry.
"I know what I want and the prices I'm willing to pay," said Winifred Tyson, who was carrying a couple of bags full of clothing and cooking gear at Penney's new Manhattan store.
Just a block away, though, there was less holiday zeal at Macy's Inc. (M), the early sales of which brought customers in, but not as many as the store expected, several salespeople in different departments said. One employee cited the recession and online competition.
While still extremely early in the holiday season, the more modestly priced stores seem to be seeing robust demand, while more mid-tier and upper-end are having a slower go of it."
"If you ask most people why the day after Thanksgiving is called Black Friday, they?ll explain that the name stems from retailers using the day?s huge receipts as their opportunity to "get in the black" and become profitable for the year. The first recorded uses of the term "Black Friday" are a bit less rosy, though.
According to researchers, the name "Black Friday" dates back to Philadelphia in the mid-1960s. The Friday in question is nestled snugly between Thanksgiving and the traditional Army-Navy football game that?s played in Philadelphia on the following Saturday, so the City of Brotherly Love was always bustling with activity on that day. All of the people were great for retailers, but they were a huge pain for police officers, cab drivers, and anyone who had to negotiate the city?s streets. They started referring to the annual day of commercial bedlam as "Black Friday" to reflect how irritating it was.
Apparently storeowners didn?t love having their biggest shopping day saddled with such a negative moniker, so in the early 1980s someone began floating the accounting angle to put a more positive spin on the big day."
Another Urban Legend disposed of."
Dom tidiga indikationerna är ju positiva även om vi inte har några siffror än:
"By all accounts, the holiday season appears to be off to a robust start, with lines longer and carts fuller than a year ago,."
NRF kommer ju först med siffrorna på söndag men rapporterar också positiva signaler:
"Retailers in all sectors have reported strong crowds, with high definition televisions, laptops, winter coats and Zhu-Zhu pets among the most popular items."
Sen ska man ju inte glömma att förra året så steg black friday försäljningen med ca 7,2% per shopper, medan hela Julförsäljningen sjönk med 3,4%. Bra försäljning kan bero på att man vill spara pengar på Julklapparna genom att utnyttja dom låga priserna under helgen.
På kort sikt är det ju dock givetvis positivt.
Hyfsade siffror än så länge
"Holiday spending totaled $10.66 billion on Friday, up only 0.5% compared with Black Friday 2008, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp."
"ShopperTrak has previously projected total holiday sales to rise 1.6% this year. Martin said he was sticking with this estimate after reviewing the Black Friday sales."
Marketwatch
Och sen verkar ju en del valt att handla över nätet istället för i affärerna vilket ökar totala försäljningen:
"Online Sales Average Surged 35% on Black Friday"
Och om sen regn verkligen var anledningen till att Northeast sjönk så finns ju hopp att dom siffrorna förbättras lite under lördagens shopping.
"Regionally, the firm said year-over-year Black Friday sales rose 4.7% in the West, increased 1.3% in the Midwest, edged up 0.6% in the South, but declined 4.9% in the Northeast, where there was rain in many sections."
Det är ju rätt mycket som förändrats sen tidigare år: En hel del affärer öppnade redan vid midnatt, en del av rea erbjudanena har förlängt att även gälla lördag/söndag, fler av reavarnorna fanna även på nätet etc. etc. Så det är lite svårt att avgöra vad det här betyder, men siffrorna är ju i alla fall positiva än så länge.
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Barry Ritzholt verkar inte så förtjust i de här försäljningsrapporterna. Om jag tolkar honom rätt så kollar ShopperTrak främst på hur mycket folk som besöker butiker, men att de egentligen inte har någon data kring själva försäljningen?
"Today, the WSJ ran this patently incorrect headline (which many TV stations dutifully (mis)reported:
Black Friday Spending Rose Slightly
Preliminary sales data showed shoppers spent $10.66 billion on Black Friday. That?s 0.5% more than last year. The figures were compiled by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago research firm that tracks sales at more than 50,000 stores
That?s simply wrong. We don?t have a clue yet as to how Black Friday sales were. Not even a remotely wild guess.
What the WSJ should have written were words to the effect of:
"An analysis of mall foot traffic suggests that Black Friday saw a slight increase in shoppers. Since we did not analyze actual sales, or even credit card transaction, we actually have no idea how sales did. ShopperTrak?s guessed that sales might have been up as much as a half a percentage, but that?s just spitballing it.
Every year, various groups ? NPD, Retail Federation, Shopper Track, and others ? release this weak ass data that is almost never correct. And each year, the press laps it up like manna from heaven.
You call this a business model, printing bullshit press releases from trade associations and the like?"
Nja, han är nog ute och snurrar där.
ShopperTrack använder ju ca 50000 traffic mätare i lika butiker och malls och utnyttjar sen det bland annat för conversion analyser. Dvs Traffic to Sales. Och för att kunna göra det så har dom ju tillgång till försäljningen. Och dom anger ju både sales och traffic i sina rapporter.
"Our NRSE algorithm accounts for customer movement and sales in more than 50,000 leading outlets each week.
Since the implementation of the current NRSE forecast methodology in November of 2004, our weekly forecast of NRSE sales has averaged within the range of +/- 3% of the actual "final" estimated GAFO sales rate for the week based on the reports from the US Department of Commerce."
Fast hade han kollat upp det så hade han ju inte kunnat kritiserat siffrorna.....
#6 Ja, lät ju lite skumt. De borde ju rimligtvis ha fsg-siffror att utgå från och modeller som stämmer hyfsat. Om det inte är som viss statistik där felmarginalerna är enorma :)
Vi får ju se vad NRF säger senare idag, ligger deras siffror något liknande så har vi ju lite confirmering.
Sen är det ju sant att inga siffror är exacta, båda är ju estimeringar av olika slag.
Det var när Visa och Mastercard redovisade sina siffror som man hade mer säkra siffror, fast det har dom ju tyvärr slutat med.
NRF säger följande:
"National Retail Federation survey conducted over the weekend confirms the expected: more people spent less. According to NRF's Black Friday shopping survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend*, up from 172 million last year. However, the average spending over the weekend dropped to $343.31 per person from $372.57 a year ago."
Det ger 13,3% fler shoppers och 7,8% mindre spent. Totalt handlades för 4,4% mer än förra året. Det includerar visserlingen online shopping som i år startat tidigare än förra året och antingen kommer att ge lite lägre siffror för Cyber monday.
Totalt sett ser summan dock positiv ut. Sen är frågan vad media och marknaden hänger upp sig på; Fler som shoppar, att dom handlar mindre, eller totalen?
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Hmmm. NRF säger nu att total spending steg från $41 billion till $41,2 dvs bara 0,5%. Vilket är mindre än jag fick.
Det betyder att 195*343.31 = 41 000 och att jag måste köpa en NRF räknare......
Lite avmattning efter thanksgiving helgen:
"The first week of December, typically a lackluster time in the wake of Black Friday, was particularly slow. Sales for the week ended Dec. 5 fell 18% from the prior-week period, which included Black Friday, according to market researcher ShopperTrak RCT Corp. Last year, when the recession was in full force, sales fell a lesser 14%, according to the firm, which compiles shopping traffic at malls and uses sales statistics, as well as Commerce Department figures, for its estimate. (WSJ)
"After solid traffic the first couple of days, it looks like the middle of August out there," said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for retail watcher NPD Group.
En förklaring kan vara att dom väntar på "Jul rean" som flyttats fram före Jul dom senaste åren för att hålla försäljningen uppe.
"Nine of 10 people waiting to finish their holiday shopping are doing so to get discounts of at least 50%, according to a survey released Thursday by UBS and market researcher America's Research Group Ltd. A third of respondents said they are holding out for a 70% discount. (WSJ)
Visar också på faran att "träna" konsumenterna till ett visst beteende.
"Waiting for discounts is a lesson consumers learned well last year, when a sharp drop in spending and a glut of inventory forced retailers to dramatically mark down their wares."
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Visa sida
Ogilla! 20
Gilla!
"NEW YORK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Americans headed to stores in droves to kick off the holiday shopping season on Friday, though many said they were being more selective about what they buy and paring back what they spend.
Black Friday, the day after U.S. Thanksgiving, is often the single busiest shopping day of the crucial holiday season, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the retail industry's annual sales. The annual ritual of American consumerism is being
monitored closely for signs the U.S. shopper is again ready to propel the economy forward, after the global financial crisis last year led to the worst holiday season in nearly four decades."