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twiggs
A flat or negative yield curve destroys bank profit margins: they borrow short and lend long, pocketing the interest rate spread. When margins narrow banks stop lending money; investment in real estate and the stock market slows; and asset prices fall. Lower asset prices mean more loan defaults for the banking sector, precipitating further tightening of lending practices and starting the downward spiral into a recession.
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tran misslyckades
The Dow Jones Transportation Average made a false break above the May 2006 high of 5000 before retreating to test 4900/4880 -- failing to confirm the bull market. Narrow consolidation between 4900 and 5000 would be a bullish sign, while reversal below 4880 would be bearish. Twiggs Money Flow respecting the upward (green) trendline would be a bullish sign; a fall below the low of [1], however, would be bearish.
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The Nikkei 225 bullish narrow consolidation [R] continues below resistance at the April high of 17600. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals strong accumulation. Expect a breakout above 17600.
The target for the breakout is the next major resistance level of 21000 [17600 + (17600 - 14200)].
Long Term: The primary up-trend continues, with support at 14200 (preceding low) and resistance at 17500/17600 (preceding high).
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