usd/yen
idag
från chart of the day:
As a result recent sell-off in the market, many investors have turned their attention to Asian stock markets for clues as to the future direction of the US market. For some perspective, today's chart illustrates the current trend in large-cap Japanese stocks as represented by the Nikkei (blue line). Like their American counterparts (light gray line), Japanese stocks have been rallying since early 2003. It is interesting to note that the most recent leg of this rally that began in mid-2006 is still intact, however, the Nikkei is currently testing support (green dashed line)
det där skulle inte börsen gilla =)
Den har brutit ned nu i #6 och direkt slås börserna ned
Ännu roligare är det att köra JPY (Yen) mot högräntevalutor som tex NZD eller AUD. Blir lite mer häv då :)
Vad gäller Yen Carry Trade så finns det en naturlig sådan, förutom de som hedgefonder mfl kör. Det föreligger iom att så fort Yen stärks så passar mkt inhemska japanska investerare på att sälja Yen och investera sina surt förvärvade stålar utomlands. Hemma är ju räntan trots allt hela 0,25% :) Därför får vi en press på Yen fortsatt.
|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."
070313
"Carry traders putting pressure on JPY and CHF again
Now that the markets have quietened down again after the recent losses on the equity markets, risk appetite has already started to increase and there have been no surprises from the central banks, it seems that the so-called carry trades are on their way back. Accordingly, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, which benefited a great deal from the turbulence on the equity markets and the burgeoning concerns about US economic activity, have tended to weaken over the last few days. Even though further corrections on the equity markets are still a possibility in the coming weeks, which could again bolster the Yen and the Franc somewhat, XYZs analysts still reckon that carry trades will become increasingly popular in the medium term.
The Yen is going to come under severe pressure again as no further interest hike is expected from the Bank of Japan in H1 2007. For this reason XYZs analysts have upped their June forecasts to EUR/JPY 160 and USD/JPY 119. Yet their forecast of significant Yen appreciation for the second half of the year remains unchanged: since inflation rates should rise considerably in the fourth quarter due to the base effect and economic activity, the market is likely to price in further increases in interest in the second six months, causing a clear appreciation in the yen.
The Fanc faces less depreciation pressure from carry trades, because the interest outlook in Switzerland is much more aggressive compared to Japan. An interest hike from the Swiss National Bank in June should protect the Franc from a more pronounced depreciation, especially since the European Central Bank has still to decide whether it will push interest up at the same time or not. Hence XYZs June forecast for the EUR/CHF sits at 1.62. In the second half of the year the interest rate spread between Switzerland and the Euro area will narrow even more, which will make the Franc increasingly unattractive as a funding currency and create additional scope for appreciation."
mvh
ex nihilo
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#12 Vill minnas jag sett dylika mega-magnitud-formationer i Yen förr. Men BoJ verkar ha oändligt med stålar att kunna stödsälja sin valuta för att sötta exporten.
Undervärderad är den iaf med tanke på återhämtningen i Japans ekonomi och ev. återvändande inflation.
|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."
#16 ungefär som resten av världens börser ser ut? =)
Visa sida
Ogilla! 12
Gilla!
Lite linjer att hålla koll på
Mvh H3NPHLO