SP500
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MARKET IS BULLISH BUT OVERBOUGHT
The weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index below reveal that prices are behaving in a very bullish fashion. The index has broken above the gradually rising trend channel that prevailed from 2004. In March prices pulled back and successfully tested the support provided by the top of the channel. Since then the rally resumed, making new highs and apparently establishing an even steeper rising trend channel.
Because prices have reached the top of the channel, we must consider that the market is overbought, and there are plenty of other indicators that will confirm this; however, there is no technical justification to turn bearish at this time. It is possible for prices to continue to rise just below the top of the channel, or another correction may take place, taking prices back to the bottom of the channel. Worse could happen, but I do not expect it
Bottom Line: Overbought conditions in bull markets may cause more caution than usual, but higher prices can occur, even as the overbought condition corrects.
The S&P 500 Index and Turning Points of Business Cycles.
The S&P 500 index is one of the components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. How many months are between the peak in the S&P 500 index and the peak in the economic cycle? We found a few interesting facts looking back at the S&P 500 index on a monthly average basis and sequential growth of real GDP. The analysis spans recessions from 1969.
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Investor Survey Results (an AAII exclusive)
This week's survey saw bullish sentiment fall to 28.57%, below its long-term average of 39.3%. Neutral sentiment fell to 17.14%, below the long-term average of 32.2%. And bearish sentiment rose to 54.29%, above the long-term average of 28.5%.
Bullish : 28.57%
Neutral: 17.14%
Bearish: 54.29%
Att bearish sentiment stigit ökar chanserna för en fortsätt uppgång.
Marknaden har kan vara på överköpte nivåer mer än man anar.
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