Shanghai Composite Index

hehe skön utveckling 

Den börskraschen kommer få IT bubblan att blekna

Får mig osökt att tänka på detta gamla inlägg ;-)

#0 Det är 7 vågor från botten och det är en pågående impuls upp. Fattas alltså minst en rekyl och ett uppben. 

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

Någon med graf över Shenzen? Den lär väl ha spöat Shanghai... makalöst. Få Kinafonder som lyckas fånga detta. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

# 4 Hoppas detta hjälper:-))

Shanghai's index of so-called B shares jumped 3.9 percent to 289.21 at the 3 p.m. local time close today, taking the holiday- shortened week's advance to 25 percent. Shenzhen's measure, which slid today, has surged 16 percent this week. Both completed their best weekly performances since March 2001. May 7 was a public holiday.

``There is a reasonable chance that the merger could happen this year,'' Vincent Chan, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group, said in a research note published today. ``With A shares trading at a simple average premium of 100 percent over B shares, we think that this potential development offers arbitrage opportunities.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aaHe6tIanB9A&refer=stocks

World Indexes

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region3.html

eller

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=SZASHR:IND

vänligen

MÅNDAG 14 MAJ : Kina: KPI april kl 4.00

ONSDAG 16 MAJ: Kina: industriproduktion kl 4.00

Protectionism and Inflation

There is great irony to congressional attempts to "fix" globalization: The odds are that the most extensive damage will be inflicted on the very constituency in the US economy that the politicians are trying to assist - America?s middle-class. One of the most important lessons of the 1970s is that inflation is the cruelest tax of all. And yet that lesson now seems all but lost on Capitol Hill today.

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2007/20070507-Mon.html

vänligen SPX 970

ja man behöver inte ha ett så avancerat trendföljande system för att ligga lång i index ;))

betydligt svårare att gissa var och när det toppar

..innan det vänder ned..;)

pharma (shenzen)

skaplig uppgång sedan april 2006

..men håller med om att risken är hög

en liten jämförelse mellan nikkei och shang hai

(styrkan i uppgången inget annat)  ;)

det som tog 5 år för N225 1984-1989 har shang hai lyckats med på 2 år

Finns ett visst utrymme för rekyl i Kina ser det ut som...:-) 

Mvh PeterPG

Casablanca's stock market has plunged 20% in the past week.

http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070516-033323-8411r 

mvh SPX 970

Inte omöjligt att Kina och många andra index USA, Europa... bildar en tillfällig topp närmaste dagarna, veckorna...

Central Bank: Interest Rate Hike Possible

The wave of new money has pushed the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to a string of new highs, prompting worries about bubbles developing in the equity market.

Earlier this month, Zhou said bubbles building in the stock market were a concern.


http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/211267.htm

mvh SPX 970

Viktig statistik att bevaka ...

China A-Share Fever: New Account Openings Now Over 200,000 Per Day

Over the four trading days from last Wednesday to Monday, Chinese investors opened 897,000 new accounts, more than the total number of accounts that were opened in ALL of 2005!

http://bbb.typepad.com/billsdue/2007/04/china_ashare_fe.html

förre veckan över 1,000,000 opened new stock trading accounts.

frågan som ställs vad kommer att händ om en del investerare bestämmer sig för ta hem vinsterna,,, hur kommer dessa nya investerare som köpt aktier med hopp att bli rika att reagera...

mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

People?s Bank of China Takes With One Hand, Gives With The Other?

With consumer price inflation running "officially" at 3.0% and with stock prices growing at an annual rate of almost 200%, why would many Chinese find a 3.06% nominal return on their savings very attractive?

läs PDF

vänligen SPX 970

China taking bull market by horns

"In terms of theory, the central bank's measures will take effect on the stock market. But I don't know if they can really take effect or not," he said. "Because currently, the Chinese stock market is not reasonable. Nearly everyone is speculating on the stock market. "Even people who only have a few tens of thousands of yuan in savings are investing it all in the stock market. People are crazy now.They talk about stock issues at work, at home ... they only care about speculation, they don't care about what the government has done to control the economy."

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/International__Business/China_taking_bull_market_by_horns_Analysts/articleshow/2062621.cms

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Vi fortsätter bevaka Kina,,,

Booming China stocks test government's will

"Investors putting new money to work in China's stock markets ignore the adage 'Don't fight the central bank'," global investment bank ING said in a report on Monday, warning that future pull-backs could unsettle risky markets globally.

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSSHA1506720070521

Richest Chinese Man Worries about China's Stock Market Bubble

(1) On May 9, the stock market in Shanghai hit an all-time record high 4000 points. The day before, on May 8, 420,000 new accounts were set up, which broke the record high for a single day. The total number of accounts opened in Shenzhen and Shanghai is reaching 100 million?nearly 10 per cent of China's population.

http://en.epochtimes.com/news/7-5-21/55535.html

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

The Shanghai Composite Index.

At the close this morning, it was 0.6% away from reaching
its 12 year resistance. Tomorrow should be the "big test" of what happens next.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Jämför

med  SPY

The 7 year chart for the SPY.

At the close yesterday, it was 0.7% away from reaching
its previous all time high. Today should be the "big test" of what happens next.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Chinese food for thought

Commentary from Todd Harrison who says "when the smartest money in Asia is raising red flags, it behooves us all to respect the risk"...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chinese-food-thought/story.aspx?guid=%7BA504D285%2D9482%2D431B%2DBFDE%2D672C484030AF%7D

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Greenspan warns of big fall in Chinese stocks


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Wednesday that there's going to be a "dramatic contraction" in Chinese equities and that the current surge on the Chinese stock market is unsustainable, according to media reports. In recent weeks, a number of financial firms, including Goldman Sachs, as well as Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's Bank of China have expressed concern about the possibility of a bubble forming in the Chinese stock market. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks shares listed on the larger of China's two stock exchanges, has gained 56% year-to-date.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

I väntan på Godot

 Market a real gamble for some Chinese

ChinaHR.com, a Web-based job placing firm, said that of the 2,500 responses this month to a survey, more than 90 percent said friends or relatives had invested in the market and 46 percent said they had opened their own trading accounts.

But just 10 percent said they had a firm grasp of the market, while 56 percent said they were learning as they went, according to the poll. It did not account for the remaining 34 percent.

http://www.kentucky.com/473/story/77623.html

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

China Orders Brokerages to Warn Investors of Risks

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=china&sid=azl.DTs9FRH8

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#23

"There are more brokerage account holders than Communist Party members in China,"

Intressant att se vad som händer när bubblan spricker och de upptäcker att deras tillgångar är borta..

I dec 2000, slutet av bullmarknad, små spararer (S) och A aktie på marknade är 6.4 miljader mot 2 miljader RMB, dvs 3:1, små spararen ha 89% av aktie på marknad.

nu, små spararer äger mer än 65% av alla aktie på Kina marknad, det är nummer 1 på hela världen. Små spararer och A aktie på marknad är 17.5 miljader mot 5.5 miljader, dvs 3:1. Det kommer till samma nivån som förra gångens bullmarknad toppen.

Kina, små spararer äger aktiemarknad. Stora fonder ser bara små spararer galen efter ko, och har svårt att hänga med. Stora fonder, gå inte in så mycket nu, men ser bara index galen gå upp. Små spararer nu har ett slag ord, "säljer aktier efter mitt död".

Today, SSEC -6.5%

en starta skot till ras av det kort huset.

Det är bara början,,,Det lär vänta lite till innan den stora raset kommer...

 

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

According to J.P. Morgan

A 20% drop on the Shanghai would cause a modest impact on their economy

A 50% drop would do significant damage to their citizens and economy with a strong likelihood that the Chinese would protest
with public demonstrations and civil disorder.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

8% ner idag inte dumt...

Hur länge andra marknader orkar hålla masken...???

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

pja ... 

varför tror så många att andra marknader ska ner för kina går ned?
Jag har svårt identifiera mig med en kines.. 

#29 Du pratar om en förhållandevis liten marknad och tillråga på allt är det interna A-marknaden som varit värst, titta på en svensk Kinafond iår så ser du inte alls samma galrna rörelser.

En play som lär köras nu är long Hong Kong och short Shanghai A. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

# 32

Jag är mest intresserade av den psykologiska effekten:-))

På några dagar så har kina fallit merd över 20% om vi räknar dagens fall som dock återhämtat mycket av nedgången.

fråpn direkt

De kinesiska Shanghai- och Shenzehnbörserna fortsatte
att uppvisa stor volatilitet och indexen pekade nedåt under
hela handelsessionen. Men från att ha noterat nedgångar om
mellan 5-6 procent, återhämtade sig indexen ordentligt mot
slutet av dagens handel.

Marknadstemperatur kl ca 7.40

Nikkei 225 +0,4%
Topix Tokyo +0,2%
Hongkongs Hang Seng -0,3%
Singapores STI -0,3%
China Shanghai Composite -1,2%
China Shenzhen Composite -1,8%
Sydkoreas Kospi -0,2%
Taiwans Taiex +0,1%
Indiens BSE Sensex -0,3%
De kinesiska Shanghai- och Shenzehnbörserna fortsatte
att uppvisa stor volatilitet och indexen pekade nedåt under
hela handelsessionen. Men från att ha noterat nedgångar om
mellan 5-6 procent, återhämtade sig indexen ordentligt mot
slutet av dagens handel.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

återstår att se hur långt ned de "släpper" den?

..de har väl troligen inte vant sig med marknadsekonomi ännu?

..eller nasdaq år 2000 som jämförelse?

Nåt att fundera över...

Asia: Hot Market or Frenzy?

Does this mean I am bearish on Asia? Not at all. In fact, on the contrary, long term I am very bullish. So am I saying that Index investing is the wrong choice? Again, not at all. For many, it may be a good choice.

For me, what this really means is that I am sober-minded in my approach to the Asian markets. I believe Asia is an IDEAL place for talented active management. There is tremendous complexity investing in the many exchanges that make up Asia - Geo-political risk, currency risks, the list goes on. This complexity can lead to inefficiencies and dislocations that are much different than those in a mature market like the US. And for the active manager who understands the risks, the complexity can create opportunity.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va_print.aspx?EditionID=532



" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

In China, Volatility in Stocks Fuels Anger at the Government

Until recently, it was hard to blame the average Chinese investor for assuming that the stock markets only go up. Since June 2005, the Shanghai composite index has gained about 300 percent. Chen Junjie, 34, who works at a consulting company, used to joke that if the Chinese stock market had a motto, it would be "Even idiots can make money."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/08/AR2007060802607.html?hpid=sec-business

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

A Pop Without Punch

Last week's plunge on Shanghai's stock exchange made barely a ripple outside China. Here's why.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19142948/site/newsweek/

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

China's trade surplus (with the rest of the world) is up to $22.45 billion in May.

The figure, released a day before a meeting between China and the European Union to discuss trade tensions, compared with a $16.9 billion surplus in April.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/11/business/yuan.php

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Vi fortsätter bevaka Kina...

 ``Today's number and the stock market for the past few days make a stronger case for a rate hike,'' said Wang Qing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. ``If loan and fixed-asset investment growth shows continued rebound, the probability for an imminent rate hike is higher.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aWbS5.Iv.Ttk&refer=china

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

China's Industrial Output Growth Accelerates in May ´

China's industrial production growth unexpectedly accelerated in May, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates to cool the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Output rose 18.1 percent in May from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, after gaining 17.4 percent in April.

``Monetary tightening of some form is now imminent,'' said Wang Qing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3cywNhbkibc&refer=home

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

The bank system is not very much in shape right now. Lots of illegal loan is going to share market.

http://news.vnet.cn/2007news/20070614/183245.html

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Posted by Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Monday, June 11, 2007

We believe that within a few short weeks, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index will begin an extended, multi-week collapse on the order of 40% or more. That decline, when it unfolds should trigger heavy selling in US Cyclical stocks, and in stock markets around the world, with Brazil, Mexico and Germany especially over-extended. The S&P could tumble initally on the order of 10 to 12%, bringing the index back down to the vicinity of the mid-March lows near 1360, possibly somewhat lower. Readers are advised to assume maximum defensive positions and seek the safety of cash.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
mvh
S Borin