USA vecka 24
Marknaden kommer att bevaka en del viktig statistik...
Inflationen kommer att vara i fokus...
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Our Economy Right Now
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc
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M3 is back
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
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Second-quarter earnings: more cause for concern?
Earnings growth of 3.8% isn't going to help cheer up the stock market
According to Thomson Financial, earnings at S&P 500 companies are expected to grow just 3.8% in the second quarter, as the downturn in the housing market took its toll on profits from companies that depend on U.S. consumers.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={B6CC82F7-02F6-4481-A199-87DB433B7DE4}
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Fed doesn't have itchy trigger finger: expert
70% chance seen of rates staying on hold for 12 months
"If the Fed looks at where inflation rates are, while they are not going to leap for joy, they certainly are about where the Fed has a right to hope they would be. But obviously the Fed is not only looking where we are, but where we are going. I would say right now there is a lot of uncertainty," said Don Ratajczak, an expert on inflation and an economic consultant to Morgan Keegan
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={2919D6A5-D7ED-422A-BAE8-A94307BA01F9}
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Housing slowdown smacks Realtors hard
Nearly 60% of Realtors are women, and many people imagine that the flexible hours make real estate an ideal job for mothers. But that's hardly true when the market dries up.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-06-08-realtor-usat_N.htm
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Hör vad geniet Ed Yardeni har och säga om Housing.
Beware the bubble
In recent days we've seen stock prices declining on leading stock exchanges across the world, including our little Tel Aviv. Is this the end of the party? How do we know that a stock market bubble is indeed a bubble? Only after the bubble bursts and market prices drop, as happened in Asia a decade ago and in the United States seven years ago.
Everyone is smart, everyone is wise, and everyone is able to explain the reasons after this happens. Few of them, if any, were able to issue timely warnings regarding the inevitable bursting of the bubble.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3410839,00.html
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Att tänka på:
Options expiration week, which has historically proven to be a positive week for the market. Since January 2006, 12 of the 17 expiration weeks have been positive for the SPX. That is slightly more than 70%, compared to about 50% for non-expiration weeks. What's more, this strength has resulted in expiration weeks having an average return between 6 and 7 times greater than non-expiration weeks (0.73% vs. 0.11%) over the same time period.
this week is a Triple-Witching week,
While the financial media has been quick to point out that Triple-Witching week has been weaker in the past than non-triple and non-expiration weeks since 2000, there has been a growing change during the past few years. Since 2004, Triple Witching has been, in fact, growing more bullish with an average return of 0.35% in the SPX
från Schaeffer's
Vi får se hur marknader agerar denna gång
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Dags att börja bevaka en del rapporter...
bild
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Microsoft Finds Legal Defender in Justice Dept.
In the most striking recent example of the policy shift, the top antitrust official at the Justice Department last month urged state prosecutors to reject a confidential antitrust complaint filed by Google that is tied to a consent decree that monitors Microsoft?s behavior. Google has accused Microsoft of designing its latest operating system, Vista, to discourage the use of Google?s desktop search program, lawyers involved in the case said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/10/business/10microsoft.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
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This morning brings us news that Google has sent a 50-page document to state and federal antitrust regulators, alleging that Microsoft's Vista operating system violates the terms of Microsoft's prior antitrust settlement. Google charges that Vista's desktop-search functionality makes it more difficult for users to run comparable software made by Google and other Microsoft competitors if they so choose.
What's different about this debate between the competitors is the government's response. A memo from the Justice Department last month encouraged state prosecutors to dismiss Google's antitrust claim, indicating the Bush administration's somewhat laissez-faire stance on antitrust regulations.
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Apple tvingade marknaden att vända ner och det gäller att bevaka aktien närmaste dagarna...
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For the record, Russell is clearly nervous right now. On Thursday night, he actually contradicted one of his favorite services, Lowry's on Demand Investor, arguing that "Lowry's states that "90% down-days are usually associated with bottoms, rather than the start of major declines (but) it's also true that major declines often contain many 90% down-days. For instance, there were eight 90% down-days during the 1961-62 declines. There were four 90% down days in the 1984 sell-off, and there were six 90% down-days during the 1987 debacle."
Russell's conclusion (provisional as always): "Over the last year the Dow and most of the major averages have gone almost parabolic bolstered by double-digit growth in the money supply, massive liquidity helped greatly by the yen carry trade. On top of that we had corporate buybacks of their own stock, mergers and acquisitions and takeovers. Finally, the markets enjoyed historically low bond yields and extreme ease of borrowing."
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SPX MA 21
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2
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Texas Instruments uppdaterar
TI prior Q2 earns outlook was 39c-45c
TI now sees Q2 earns 40c-44c
aktien faller med 2,99%
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Texas Instruments Inc. the world's No. 1 maker of cell phone chips, narrowed its second-quarter financial targets after Monday's closing bell. TI forecast sales in the range of $3.36 billion to $3.51 billion, versus its prior forecast of $3.32 billion to $3.6 billion. It pegged earnings per share between 40 cents and 44 cents, compared with its prior outlook of 39 cents to 45 cents. Dallas, Tex.-based TI, which makes chips used in phones, telecommunications equipment, and calculators, is looking to snap two straight quarters of revenue declines in this current business period. Its biggest
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
de tre major ix har liknande nivåer. 61,8 o fishfas vid ungefär samma. kanske lite makke o brakke där?
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Råoljepriset steg efter att
Saudiarabien än en gång minskat sina leveranser till Asien. I
juli var den levererade volymen cirka tio procent lägre än den
avtalade. Det var den nionde månaden i rad som asiaterna får
lägre leveranser än avtalat.
"Jag misstänker att saudierna är oroliga för ökade
lager. De har haft ett par motgångar efter att lagren stigit
för mycket varpå de har förlorat kontrollen av marknaden",
sade Michael Lynch, chef på Strategic Energy & Economic
Research i Massachusetts, till Bloomberg News.
Opec har även indikerat att oljeproduktionen inte kommer
att öka innan nästa produktionsmöte i september, vilket fick
oljepriset att stiga ytterligare enligt Thomson Financials.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
# 18 Tack
Djia samma mönster
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Russel, "the last bear" är bullish och Don Hays som har varit bullish är
superbullish.
timex market that just keeps on ticking.
This is Hays' currently recommended asset allocation:
"Long-term Growth": 100% stocks.
"Moderate Growth": 85% stocks, 15% bonds.
"Conservative Growth": 65% stocks, 35% bonds
Det var ett par veckor sen.
Hays' conclusion: "We always keep a smidgeon of cash just to help facilitate any operational immediate cash needs someone might have. But today, that smidgeon is the only cash we have. You see, our filter is telling us that the stock market in the next 6-30 months is going to be extremely good. This is not a normal allocation. It is very unusual for this model to give this kind of bullishness."
frågan är om det finns any cash along the sidelines
He, he ja.........
Dessvärre börjar min kassa se lika dan ut.....
Mvh sq52trader
The world oil market risks being tighter later this year if OPEC is inflexible over production, the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday, sharply raising its estimate for world oil demand in 2007.
http://servihoo.com/channels/kinews/afp_details.php?id=164672&CategoryID=47
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Subprime Crash Squeezes Out First-Time Home Buyers
``It appears that the impact of stricter lending standards, primarily arising from problems in the subprime market, is negatively affecting affordability at lower price points,'' Toll said. ``This in turn can and probably does impact the entire housing food chain including some of our potential customers' ability to sell their existing homes.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9WrgkMoBpyI&refer=home
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Beige Book: No sign of recovery in housing
Beige Book: Retail, factories gaining in May
Beige Book reports no increase in price pressures
Beige Book reports moderate economic growth
mer om en stund
Yet the strength of the economy, along with higher costs of fuel and food, haven't increased ``overall'' pressures on wages and prices, the Fed said in its regional survey, known as the Beige Book for the color of its cover.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaZXNOIdzyWY&refer=home
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
(MarketWatch) - The economy continued to expand at a moderate pace in most regions of the country, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its occasional Beige Book report on the economy.
Most regions reported steady, modest growth, with few heightened worries about inflation. The report's tenor was largely in line with the current views of Fed officials.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economic-report-us-economy-growing/story.aspx?guid=%7B65EB7EBA%2DE1F6%2D43D9%2DA34A%2DA0B2AA8F7862%7D&dist=hplatest
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Freddie Mac Has 1st-Quarter Net Loss of $211 Million
The net loss was $211 million, or 46 cents a share, and compares with net income of $2 billion, or $2.80 a share, in the first quarter of last year, the McLean, Virginia-based company said in a statement today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRRiTutdcLLQ&refer=home
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Regulators Quiet as Lenders `Targeted' Minorities
The U.S. agencies that supervise more than 8,000 banks haven't censured any of them for violating fair-lending laws, three years after Federal Reserve researchers began assembling data showing blacks and Hispanics are more likely than whites to be saddled with high-priced home loans.
--
``Black people and Hispanics have been targeted,'' said Alphonso Jackson, secretary of Housing and Urban Development, whose department is hiring to expand its own probe of discriminatory lending.
``Low and moderate-income people get one shot at home ownership,'' Jackson said in an interview in Washington. ``And if they don't make it work, they don't get a second shot.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2GDuS5EBhok&refer=home
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U.S. May crude goods PPI up 2%
U.S. core PPI up 1.6% in past 12 months
U.S. PPI up 4.1% in past 12 months, most in a year
U.S. core intermediate PPI up 2.9% yoy, 3-year low
Led by another big gain in energy prices, wholesale prices rose a greater-than-expected 0.9% in May, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Wholesale food prices fell 0.2%, the first decline in seven months. Energy prices jumped 4.1%, the biggest increase in six months. Wholesale gasoline prices rose 10.2%. The core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, the first increase in three months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for smaller increases of 0.6% on the headline PPI and a 0.1% increase for the core PPI. Headline inflation has risen 4.1% in the past 12 months, the largest increase in a year. But core inflation at the wholesale level is up a moderate 1.6% in the past 12 months
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Goldman's Second-Quarter Earnings Rise 1%, Beating Estimates
Net income climbed to $2.33 billion, or $4.93 a share, in the quarter ended May 25 from $2.31 billion, or $4.78, a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. Goldman beat the $4.78-per-share average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg for the sixth consecutive quarter
...
``The overall business model is going to be pressured by higher rates and more challenging capital markets,'' said Jon Fisher, who helps manage $1.7 billion at Fifth Third Asset Management.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBKoFWIrnD0I&refer=home
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``Inflationary pressures are certainly there,'' Julia Coronado, a senior economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the report. ``The pass-through is coming down the road. The Fed is going to be increasingly concerned about inflation.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaBMFdrpoDt0&refer=home
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MarketWatch) -- The dollar rallied to a new four-and-a-half year peak against the yen and rose against the euro early Thursday, after the Labor Department said U.S. inflation at the wholesale level rose more than expected last month, stoking speculation the Federal Reserve has to keep interest rates high. Led by another big gain in energy prices, producer prices rose 0.9% in May, higher than expectations for a gain of 0.6%. The core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, the first increase in three months, and above the consensus forecast for an increase of only 0.1%.
Separately, first-time filings for state unemployment benefits were unchanged in the week ending June 9 at 311,000, the Labor Department said. The euro was last down 0.2% at $1.3290, while the dollar was up 0.4% at 123.04 yen, after rising to 123.11 yen, the loftiest level since December 2002
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The End Of Cheap Credit?
The most important price in the American economy is not the price of oil, computer chips, wheat or cars. It's the price of money -- interest rates.
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Subprime woes weigh on Goldman, Bear results
Charge drags Bear earnings down 33%, while Goldman has 1% profit gain
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SPX
bevaka MA 21
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En del talar för fortsätt uppgång... topp runt 4 juli...En del andra SPX skall ner mot 1460
bevaka MA 21
2
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
S.E.C. Ends Decades-Old Price Limits on Short Selling
The Securities and Exchange Commission voted yesterday to end price restrictions on short selling, meaning that investors seeking to sell a share that they do not own will no longer be barred from doing so because the price of the stock is falling.
The 5-to-0 vote, ending a rule that had been in place since 1938, when short sellers were blamed by some critics for having caused the 1929 market crash and the Depression that followed, came as the commission also voted to make it harder to engage in naked shorting, the practice of selling shares that have not been purchased or borrowed.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/business/14sec.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
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Apple
MA 21
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MA 21
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ERIC i USA
MA 21 och 50 korsar...
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här
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Eric usa
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Top Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:
Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) = +2.1 percent
US Oil Fund (USO) = +2.0 percent
iShares DJ U.S. Energy (IYE) = +1.9 percent
SPDR-Energy (XLE) = +1.9 percent
Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) = +1.6 percent
PS Hardware & Consumer Electronics (PHW) = +1.6 percent
iShares DJ Transportation Average (IYT) = +1.6 percent
PS Semiconductors (PSI) = +1.6 percent
iShares GS Semiconductor (IGW) = +1.5 percent
iShares GS Natural Resources (IGE) = +1.5 percent
Bottom Performing Sector Exchange Traded Funds:
SPDR-Consumer Staples (XLP) = +0.0 percent
iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Bond (IEF) = -0.0 percent
iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Bond (SHY) = -0.0 percent
SPDR-Financial (XLF) = -0.1 percent
Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) = -0.1 percent
iShares Lehman 20+ Year Bond (TLT) = -0.1 percent
iShares DJ U.S. Financial (IYF) = -0.2 percent
iShares DJ U.S. Real Estate (IYR) = -0.8 percent
iShares C&S Realty Majors (ICF) = -1.1 percent
Wilshire REIT Fund (RWR) = -1.2 percent
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
återknyter till bilden i #18. alla ix är nu över 61,8 nivå + fasen. etablering här och det är ny attack mot gamla topparna som gäller.
#45 Fina grafer. Vänder US indexen ner härifrån ser det ut att kunna bildas HS- formationer över hela linjen. Statten i morgon kan bli avgörande.
Mvh taxwell
SPX
Möjlig head and shoulders pattern
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Vix
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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Federal Reserve Bank i Boston har
beslutat att utnämna Eric Rosengren att efterträda den
avgående chefen Cathy Minehan, rapporterar Bloomberg News.
Eric Rosengren är för närvarande chef för
bankövervakningen på Federal Reserve Boston. Han har arbetat
för banken sedan 1985 och kommer ny att ta över chefsstolen i
juli. Han kommer då också att överta Cathy Minehans plats som
röstande ledamot i Federal Reserve Open Market Committée,
Fomc, den amerikanska centralbankens räntebeslutande kommitté.
Fedchefen i Richmond, Jeffrey Lacker, lärde känna Eric
Rosengren när de båda gick på University of Wisconsin, och
karaktäriserar den tillträdande Bostonchefen som en "verkligt
solid bankekonom", enligt ett uttalande.
Eric Rosengrens forskning har till stor del handlat om
bankkriser, bland annat om den japanska finanskrisen på 1990-
talet./
mer här
http://www.bos.frb.org/news/press/2007/pr061407.htm
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
#47 VIX (VXO) vs SPX longterm ;-)
mvh
PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.
Home buyers scared straight by rates
"Consumers have connected the dots," he said. They "realize the days of double-digit home price appreciation are probably over for some period and are looking for the safest mortgage they can get into."
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Lawmaker threatens to remove Federal Reserve power
If the Fed doesn't exercise its authority soon as the sole federal agency entitled to write regulations prohibiting unfair and deceptive mortgage practices, "then we'll find someone else who will," Frank said at a committee hearing.
http://www.komotv.com/news/business/7996732.html
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You Want Mortgage Rates? You Can?t Handle the Rates!
Yet we forgot one thing in all this free money. Rates only encourage spending or stifle spending. Sound economic policy is based on monitoring credit expansion. Of course asking the wolves to mind the hen house isn?t the smartest thing, this is the policy we have been following since the start of the millennium. But for consumers, rates do not matter. The first thing you learn in real estate investing is location, location, location. Okay, lesson one is finished. But the second paramount thing to understand is you become successful by the purchase price of the home.
http://drhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/06/you-want-mortgage-rates-you-cant-handle.html
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# 49 tack
Volatility index for DAX
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2
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49# Menar du att vi står inför en kraftig uppgång likt den tidigare eller en nedgång?
En referat från finans-bloggen.
Det är dyrt att hedga????.Givet ovanstående kommentar är det ju knappast någon förvåning att det blivit dyrt att hedga. Faktiska nivån på implied vol är hög jämfört med hur det tex var inför maj 2006 och februari 2007, särskilt för korta löptider. Put/call vol skew är också mycket brantare nu än vad vi haft inför tidigare påsäljningar, ja till och med brantare än vi hade efter februari paniken. Slutsats? Det har blivit dyrt att hedga och du måste tro på riktig krasch för att det ska vara värt. Det är ju också värt att konstatera att vol skew egentligen är den enda sentiment indikatorn som spelar någon roll nu för tiden - och den signalerar ju således såklart för hausse.
Mvh traction
#55 nej inte nödvändigtvis en stor uppgång. Jag menar att VIX inte förvarnar vid toppar. Däremot kan den vara användbar när den blir extremt hög under en större nedgång, dvs den indikerar sista panikutförsäljningen.
mvh
PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.
I'm an old-timer...
Richard Russell
I've held all along that the next war will not be a military war. It will not be a matter of the major powers fighting each other. The coming war for power and world leadership will be an economic war. It will be fought with competitive currencies and the movement of gold and the potential threat of nuclear bombs.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell061407.html
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
CPI running hot, but core remains cool
Consumer prices show 2nd largest gain in 16 years
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``We've seen a gradual diminution in core inflation,'' William Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston, said before the report. ``If everything plays out right according to the Fed playbook, they'll be on hold well into next year and then they'll start to ease a little.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHUgea4nnkbA&refer=home
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Det går väldigt fort från 8.03 till 25.8
New York Fed's Manufacturing Index Jumps to 25.8 This Month
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index rose to 25.8 from 8.03 the prior month, the bank said today. Readings greater than zero signal expansion.
Companies are revving up production plans as demand in the U.S. and overseas improves. A recovery in manufacturing, together with stabilization in home construction, will help the economy accelerate after the slowest pace of growth in more than four years last quarter.
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Capital flows to the U.S. rose sharply in April, reaching $111.8 billion from $30.1 billion in March, the Treasury Department reported Friday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economic-report-capital-flows-us/story.aspx?guid=%7B8D4268A3%2D3C07%2D4949%2D969B%2DA370EDE8CFB0%7D&dist=hplatest
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Crude futures touch $68 for the first time in 7 weeks
June Reuters/UMich consumer sentiment said 83.7 vs. 88.3
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Det index som University of Michigan
publicerar varje månad över stämningen bland de amerikanska
konsumenterna sjönk till 83,7 i juni, från 88,3 i maj.
Det framgår av preliminära siffror på fredagen.
Analytikerna som tillfrågats i Bloomberg News
prognosenkät räknade med att Michiganindex skulle sjunka till
87,8 i juni./ED-MS
.....................
U.S. consumer sentiment eased in early June, according to a monthly survey released Friday by Reuters and the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment index fell to 83.7 from 88.3 in May. Economists were expecting the index to fall to 87.0. The current conditions index dropped to 100.2 from 105.1. The expectations index fell to 73.0 from 77.6. Inflation expectations over the next five years fell to 3% from 3.1%, while inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.5% from 3.3%
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
China Sells Treasuries, Signaling Diversification
China, which owns more U.S. debt than any foreign nation except Japan, sold a net $5.8 billion of Treasuries, the first drop in holdings since October 2005, according to Treasury Department figures that go back to 2000. The nation held $414 billion of the $4.4 trillion of marketable Treasuries in April, according to today's report.
---
``It's part of the ongoing, gradual, long-term diversification story,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy for the foreign-exchange group in Boston at Mellon Financial Corp. ``It may not necessarily impact the daily market, but this does raise the concern about the dollar.''
---
Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, cautioned against conclusions based on one month, as the figures are regularly revised.
``There's no clear sign they are going dump Treasuries,'' said Chandler, noting that Chinese officials have said they have no intention of doing anything that would devalue their holdings.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=arhazjYdU1po&refer=china
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