USA vecka 35

# 0 fel bild 

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Nasdaq kommer möjligen att fortsätta mot MA 50... 

och runt MA 50... 2600 har vi  61,8 % Fibonacci Retracement.

Man kan gå short runt dessa nivåer...om vi nu når dessa nivåer...

Se graf...

Lägg märk till att volymen var nästan dubbel så stor under nedgången än uppgången...

OBS glöm inte  Labor Day måndag 3 september...

ha det så gott

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Expecting Short-Term Top

The current correction has a more bearish slant. The price decline has been more violent, and the second down thrust has led to a much lower price low.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/070824_top.html

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Credit risk seen as top economic threat in survey

"Financial market turmoil has shifted the focus away from terrorism and toward sub-prime and other credit problems as the most important near-term threats to the U.S. economy," said Carl Tannenbaum, president of NABE and chief economist at LaSalle Bank/ABN Amro.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Countrywide Financial (CFC) i torsdags

150 million shares changed hands after the Bank of America announcement, some as high as 26.50! The huge volume and the fact that the stock closed below the average price over the last 2 days shows that the market was not impressed with the $2 billion. The reaction is very similar to the move that Goldman Sachs made 2 weeks ago when they announced they were adding capital to their distressed hedge fund. If "good news" doesn't make these stocks go up, what will? i

Ignore the headlines and focus on price action.

se bild

Aktien stängde runt 21 dollar i fredags

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Countrywide Financial

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

SPX

61.8% retracement 

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

SPX nästa mål att testa nivåer runt April high 2006 (1326)???

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Another finance firm in trouble

The finance company sector crisis deepened today with a firm that has loans of more than $630 million signalling it is on the brink of collapse.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/bayofplenty/4176700a13938.html

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Mortgage Mess Hurts Main Street, Beyond

An increasing number of homeowners and prospective homeowners are getting caught up in the fast-spreading mortgage crisis that is claiming victims from all income levels and demographic groups. Like the Pents, many are trying desperately to get their loan terms reworked but are finding it's not possible in a tightened market.

.....

"I've heard on TV where the lenders want to work with you," she said bitterly. "Bullcrap. ... These people are not out to help you, they're out to take your home."

Milca called her lender almost daily without response and piled up attorneys' bills and late fees. She had problems sleeping from all the anxiety, and her hair started falling out.

"Every month it was like 'Is this nightmare going to be over?'" she said. "How could somebody be asked to pay $3,000 a month on a mortgage that's $193,000? That's highway robbery."

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/08/25/ap4053912.html

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

At this time, we have suspended our Wholesale and Correspondent operations. Please continue to check our website for further updates.

https://www.homeviewlending.com/Default.aspx

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

What history tells us about market slumps

A sharp turn in the stock market can occur when investors stop disagreeing about the outlook for the economy and markets. Universal agreement provides a strong push.

"As it is happening, the investor must ask, 'When will I have the courage to start to buy?' " Bernstein said. "Because that's what buying opportunities come from."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/investing/bal-bz.ym.history26aug26,0,5870984.story

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

People & Power - Money Geyser- 05 Aug 07 - Part 1

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=JjglR2KYz5o

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

 Knowing What Ain't True

I recognize that many investors are concerned about the potential for inflationary consequences from the Fed's operations here. However, as I've frequently noted, a sharp widening of credit spreads is an indication that there is increasing demand for the monetary base (which we observe as a decline in "monetary velocity"). In that situation, an expansion of the monetary base doesn't naturally result in inflationary pressures. The inflationary pressures may come later, if the Fed fails to absorb those reserves back from the banking system as the demand for liquidity eases back to normal. But for now, I do view the Fed's actions in terms of repos and discount window lending as appropriate.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070827.htm

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

# 14

As a side note, I'm intrigued that investors have been so willing to lower their guard about credit concerns and the potential for continued blowups, based on nothing but the short-term interventions of the Fed. Most likely, the worst credit risks are being held in the hedge fund world, where reporting is monthly and nobody has to say nothin' until the month is over

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories of unsold single-family homes increased 2.2% to 3.85 million in July, sending the inventory in relation to sales to the highest level in 16 years, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. Resales of single-family homes and condos fell 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million, stronger than the 5.69 million sales pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Sales of single-family homes fell 0.4% to a 5.0 million seasonally adjusted pace. Inventories of single-family unsold homes represented a 9.2-month supply at the July sales pace, the highest since October 1991

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Car crach

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

The latest Investors Intelligence survey, the percentage of bulls dropped to 40.6 percent, while the percentage of bears jumped to 37.4 percent.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Bernie Schaeffer är bullish tror starkt på en fortsätt uppgång och att botten möjligen redan inträffat ...och vill att Fed skall sänka räntan...anars är vi illa ute,,, han skriver följande:

I see the biggest risk to the market as the potential for the Fed to not cut rates by its meeting on September 18. While I believe the market would eventually force a Fed rate cut if it does not occur by this next meeting, this very market action could get quite ugly until the Fed finally gets off its ridiculous preoccupation with inflation and gets real. I see the financial sector as being most vulnerable due to the potential for more credit market dislocation as well as the revelation that this sector has been heavy on the long side in the various quant portfolios that have been serially blowing up. When everyone feels a sector offers "value" it can get very ugly when fear enters the mix.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Är du björn spx970? :-)

Det är ju bulligt att andelen bullar har sjunkit. ;-) Det var väl botten på maj korrektionen förra året det såg likadant ut.

Mvh Silicon Valley1

#18

Var hittar man de där graferna?

mvh 

# 20

LÅNGSIKTIGT är jag bull men MEDIUM TERM så tror jag fortfarande på att botten möjligen inträffar under oktober...

Och det stämmer bra...att det är bulligt angående andelen bullar-bear... men jag tror att det finns fortfarande negativa nyheter som måste komma ut innan vi talar om botten... för Bernie själv blev tagen i sängen när senaste nedgången tog fart...för han trodde inte att det skulle inträffa för sentiment var  för negativa...

Det kan vara farligt att vara Contrarian ibland:-))

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

# 21

registrera dig:-))

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/Default.aspx

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

SPX970

Ja det är sannerligen inte så lätt att förutspå börsen. Jag trodde hela året på en korrektion i slutet på augusti.. men den kom i Juli.. :-)

Nu tror jag det kan komma en dipp till i höst... men frågan är när... inte säkert den kommer heller. 

Mvh Silicon Valley1

U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Declines by Most in Two Years

The New York-based Conference Board's index retreated to 105, from 111.9 in July, the biggest slide since Hurricane Katrina destroyed parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast. Economists had forecast a reading of 104, according to a Bloomberg survey.

...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afgowFBEAef8&refer=home

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Huspriserna i 20 storstadsområden
runt om i USA sjönk 3,5 procent i juni jämfört med i juni
2006, enligt S&P/Case Schillers index.

Enligt Bloomberg News enkät väntade analytiker att
priserna skulle ha sjunkit 3,3 procent i juni.

Motsvarande index för maj visade att huspriserna sjönk
2,9 procent jämfört med samma månad året före.

Under tremånadersperioden till och med juni sjönk
huspriserna med 3,2 procent jämfört med samma period året
före. Det var den största nedgång som uppmätts i indexets
historia.

S&P/Case Schillers index bygger på upprepade
försäljningar och anses därmed ge en mer rättvisande bild av
prisutvecklingen än vad som anges i samband
försäljningsstatistiken för befintliga bostäder. Det
begränsade urvalet kan dock innebära att indexet överdriver
såväl prisuppgångar som prisfall jämfört med bredare mått
utvecklingen för amerikanska huspriser

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Home prices fall record 3.2% nationally
Values down in 15 of 20 major cities, Case-Shiller finds

'With supply overhang growing and mortgage financing tougher to obtain, home prices are going to soften considerably further in the quarters ahead.'
? Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-home-prices-fall-record/story.aspx?guid=%7B02A14CEF%2D2941%2D4404%2D8056%2D418DDA9F0330%7D

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

# 27

"We are fast approaching the rate of price decline seen at the end of the 1990-91 recession, and the odds strongly favor blowing past this mark in coming months," wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR Inc. "With supply overhang growing and mortgage financing tougher to obtain, home prices are going to soften considerably further in the quarters ahead."
The last time prices fell so much, it took more than eight years for home prices to return to their peak level.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve policymakers agreed to keep a close eye on financial market conditions at their August 7 meeting, but said inflation remained the most significant policy concern. The members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee clearly saw downside risks to the growth outlook from the market turmoil. Members agreed a further deterioration in financial conditions "could not be ruled out and, to the extent such a development could have an adverse effect on growth prospects, might require a policy response." But there was no sign of disagreement among policymakers that inflation remained the number one threat on August 7. A lower dollar and poor productivity data contributed to upside risks to inflation, the minutes said. Only ten days later, the FOMC issued another statement, saying that worsening financial conditions had increased the downside risks to growth "appreciably." The minutes released today do not include any discussion among Fed officials prior to the Aug. 17 statement

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Om ni orkar läsa

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
August 7, 2007
A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday August 7, 2007 at 8:30 a.m.

nu bättre

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awCzhx4hFXaw&refer=home

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Chanserna är ganska stora att S&P 500 testar stödet 1370-1371...

Brott under den är en signal för fortsätt nedgång...

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

New Highs: inga köpsignaler...

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

MARKET SNAPSHOT
U.S. stocks rise sharply on bargain-hunting
Technology shares, including Apple, Intel and Seagate, surge

"I'm not sure that there's a fundamental reason for it [the gains]," said Mike Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. "More than anything, we're making up some of yesterday's sell-off which seemed excessive in light of the economic data that was released."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/market-snapshot-us-stocks-rise/story.aspx?guid=%7B741AC017%2D1543%2D4B08%2DB7A5%2DFFF7F3EE4580%7D&dist=hplatest

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Det var väldigt bullish vändningen uppåt igår men jag tar den med nypa salt för jag tror cramer och c.o kommer att höja upp stämningen så att alla tror att det värsta är över...

Det bästa vore att vänta till tisdag-onsdag för att se vad som kommer att hända...

Står fast vid att vi skall ner igen... tills nåt annat tvingar mig att ändra mig...

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock market futures were pointing to further turbulence Thursday, declining as investors flail for direction while waiting for a firm stance from the Federal Reserve on interest rates.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Indications

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

GDP

Happy numbers

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Text of Bernanke?s Letter to Schumer
The following is the text of a letter sent by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Sen. Charles Schumer.

"I want to assure you that the Federal Reserve, in cooperation with other federal agencies, is closely monitoring developments in financial markets."--

Again, thank you for your interest and please be assured that we are following these issues closely.

Sincerely,
Ben S. Bernanke

Read that manipulating the financial markets

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/08/29/text-of-bernankes-letter-to-schumer/

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- H&R Block Inc., the biggest U.S. tax- preparer, said first-quarter losses more than doubled on costs to finance its money-losing subprime mortgage unit.

The net loss for the fiscal quarter, which ended July 31, was $302.6 million, or 93 cents a share, compared with $131.4 million, or 41 cents, a year earlier,

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aQbQVh_GLFbU&refer=us

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

The Myth of the Slow Crash

The confusing and contradictory nature of the economic data may in itself be strong evidence of major dangers that confront the Fed's decision-making process.

It is of the utmost importance to realize this: given the actual facts which it was then possible for either businessman or economists to observe, those diagnoses -- or even the prognosis that, with the existing structure of debt, those facts plus a drastic fall in price level would cause major trouble but that nothing else would -- were not simply wrong. What nobody saw, though some people may have felt it, was that those fundamental data from which diagnoses and prognoses were made, were themselves in a state of flux and that they would be swamped by the torrents of a process of readjustment corresponding in magnitude to the extent of the industrial revolution of the preceding 30 years. People, for the most part, stood their ground firmly. But that ground itself was about to give way.

- Joseph A. Schumpeter, Business Cycles, 1939

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=15103#post15103

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

 
Ahead of the Bell: Mortgage Lenders

Credit Suisse Analyst Predicts Drastic Decline in Mortgage Lending Next Year


NEW YORK (AP) -- A Credit Suisse analyst said Thursday he expects a drastic decline in mortgage lending next year as the housing market struggles and lenders face a hostile climate.
Credit Suisse analyst Moshe Orenbuch said he expects $1.8 trillion in mortgage loans next year, compared with $3.3 trillion in 2005. He cut his estimate for lending this year to $2.3 trillion from $2.5 trillion.

The mortgage market has fallen into upheaval this year as the Wall Street banks that finance the industry decided the business was too risky and pulled out their money. This left cash-starved mortgage lenders scrambling for money, pushing more than 50 of them into bankruptcy.

With many lenders unable to sell their loans to investors, Orenbuch said he does not expect a recovery until the housing market rebounds in 2009.

Suffering from bloated inventory and an end to speculative buying, the housing market has stalled. Home prices fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter, according to Standard & Poor's, and there is nearly a 10-month supply of unsold homes sitting on the market.

Orenbuch said he expects existing-home sales to decline 6 percent this year and 7 percent next year.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Is A Subprime Recession Inevitable?

We'll also look at the estimates of the curre

nt subprime mortgage carnage. I will present some information you may not have seen elsewhere. For example, you may not know that mortgage lenders historically have assumed that 10-11% of all subprime mortgages granted will default. We don't hear that in the media. Also, the Federal Reserve indicates that only about 30% of all subprime loans are of the type likely to experience a large increase in payments in the near future. The media doesn't talk about that either. But we will in the pages that follow.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/forecasts_print.aspx

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Prechter: Why the Fed Will Not Stop Deflation

We hear it every day: "What about the Fed?" The vast majority of investors and commentators seem confident that the Fed's machinations make a stock market collapse impossible. Every hour or so one can read or hear another comment along these lines: "the Fed will provide liquidity," "the Fed is injecting money into the system," "the Fed will be forced to bail out homeowners, homebuilders, mortgage companies and banks," "the Fed has no choice but to inflate," "the government cannot allow deflation," "the Fed will print money to stave off deflation" and any number of like statements.

None of them is true.

http://bullnotbull.com/bull/node/44

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inget har förändrats...vi skall vända ner...

SPX MA 13 och MA 21

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

# 43

ett måste on ni missat den:-))

As I have said before, the Fed is a bank. It has private owners. The owners do not want to see their enterprise destroyed. Although Bernanke probably received distress calls from mortgage lenders, he probably also got calls from the Fed's owners saying, "Don't you dare buy any of that crap and put it in our long-term portfolio." The Fed's owners are smart. They exploit the banking system without taking on any of the risks. They let member banks make mortgages and lend to consumers, but they don't do so themselves.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

"As I have said before, the Fed is a bank. It has private owners. The owners do not want to see their enterprise destroyed. Although Bernanke probably received distress calls from mortgage lenders, he probably also got calls from the Fed's owners saying, "Don't you dare buy any of that crap and put it in our long-term portfolio." The Fed's owners are smart. They exploit the banking system without taking on any of the risks. They let member banks make mortgages and lend to consumers, but they don't do so themselves." 

Que?

Fed ägs av US goverment om man nu kan säga att någon "äger" dom. Dom opererar helt oberoende men på uppdrag av Congressen. Och ev överskott på verksamheten (vilket inte är ett mål) går till US treasury.

Privata ägare?? "our long term portfolio"?? (dom köper inte upp lån, dom ger ut) Memberbanks som ger ut mortaggelån??

Vad är det för totalt dravel av Prechter, man måste fråga sig om han går på samma droger som när han gör räkningar? (För det kan väl inte vara att man medvetet skriver saker som inte är sanna??)