USA vecka 38

Earnings 

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Earning 2 

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Mer om earnings 

Whisper Number

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Whisper Number 2

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tål att upprepas

Bloomberg quotes from Greenspan's new book.

"Slowing productivity and rising wages abroad will probably cause U.S. consumer prices to climb in the next quarter century, Greenspan wrote in his book, ``The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World,'' published by Penguin Press. His outlook includes a reversal of many of the trends that aided the success of his own tenure at the Fed.

There are already some signs that political scrutiny is rising. Democrats including Barney Frank of Massachusetts, who heads the House Financial Services Committee, called last week for a ``meaningful'' cut in interest rates."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV9c2pZaxWkE&refer=home

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Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Dan Norcini

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5193_Charts_for_9-14-2007.pdf

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"Slowing productivity and rising wages abroad will probably cause U.S. consumer prices to climb in the next quarter century"

Det är klart, oavlönade slavar upptäcktes ju i Kina så sent som i våras, ,klart att lönerna går upp, det har de ju förövrigt gjort i väst under mer än 150 år och vi har ju knappast fått det sämre.

Tror inte hellre att ngn annan fått det sämre för att vi fått det bättre, det finns det dom som tror det, dessa återfinns allt som oftast på vänsterkanten, har Alan gått över dit?

ECB cash infusions may not succeed: Dodge
Reuters


Friday, September 14, 2007

ECB cash infusions may not succeed: Dodge
Reuters


Friday, September 14, 2007

ZURICH ? The European Central Bank's efforts to restore confidence to credit markets by pumping in liquidity are unlikely to succeed, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge was quoted as saying on Friday.

"I'm not sure practically, whether it would do anything," Dodge told the Financial Times in an interview, referring to the ECB's issuing of billions of euros in three-month money.

Interest rates have risen well above overnight money market rates as banks have hoarded cash as a precaution in case they are forced to bail out off-balance-sheet debt vehicles they helped to set up during an era of abundant cheap money.

"If I thought that somehow there was a magic wand and if we did that for three or four days, then all of a sudden the markets would clear and life would be beautiful ... There is no principle that says (this) is a bad thing to do, but I can't believe it will do the job," he told the newspaper.

Mr. Dodge also said it was not the duty of central bankers to "bail out people who have made losses."

Dodge also criticized credit rating agencies who gave triple -A credit ratings to highly structured products without explaining all the attendant risks.

"I won't let the credit ratings agencies totally off the hook. They didn't work terribly hard to make sure people understood their ideas," he said.

Mr. Dodge told the newspaper he believed structured financial products should be made more transparent so that buyers "can see clearly what they are buying."

But he said increased regulation was not the answer. "I'm not really sure ... that there is much value added by governments or regulators coming in and telling people what to do," he said.

A new business model adopted by banks of arranging loans and then parcelling out the risk among investors was flawed because those selling loans did not have enough incentive to make sure borrowers paid them back, said Mr. Dodge.

"You don't make the appropriate credit judgment if all you're doing is thinking, 'Gee, there's this opaque market out there that appears to have a voracious demand for more stuff."'

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Moody?s Sees Tripling of U.S. Junk Default Rate
Its model shows the current 1.4-percent rate jumping to 4.5 percent in the next year; sharp rises globally, too.

"Higher spreads and diminished liquidity are putting distressed issuers at increased risk of default," according to Kenneth Emery, Moody's Director of Corporate Default Research. "However, as long as the U.S. economy avoids recession, the default rate will likely remain below its long-run historical average of approximately 5 percent."

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/9789102

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Några charts

 Nasdaq

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Apple

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Intel

Aktien stängde  24,93 i fredags

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Trots att markanden gick upp senaste veckan så rädslan fortfarande stor.

 VIX  är fortfarande över MA 50 och 200

t.o.m MA 10 och 20

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Betty White Roasts Shatner

Enjoy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=402n91NyZHE

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Investor's Intelligence

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The chart of the cumulative NYSE advance /declines dating back to early 1990's. There was a financial crisis in 1998, the Fed lowered rates, the market took off higher, but the advance /decline sank like a rock. The plunging AD line was a long-term negative divergence that eventually undermined the stock market bull. But the stock market continued higher for another two-and-a-half years, and it provided some spectacular gains during this period of negative divergence.

Since 2002, the AD has solidly confirmed the stock market's march to higher highs indicating this has been a broad-based, well supported bull market. Now we face another financial crisis, and we need to watch the AD line again. If the market eventually breaks higher and the bull resumes, confirmation by the AD will be important if it is a sustainable advance. If the AD doesn't confirm, then it will likely mean that the primary trend is in its final stage.

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Chart from Arthur Hill. The US Dollar is correlated to 10Y rates, and both are heading lower. How low can they go? Low 10Y rates indicate financial crisis, or at least low economic growth, but could it also be deflation?

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Chart from John Murphy. 10Y rates are also correlated to the Japanese stock market. John's theory is that Japan exported deflation to the US starting around 1989 up to about 2003... is Japanese deflation back?

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Housing Cycles: Then and Now

Bilden av Raymond James chief economist Jeff Saut

 Rising inventories

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Största fokus kommer ligga på bankernas rapport  i veckan, tror jag.

Vh/Z 

Insider Buying Set Records in August
Friday September 7, 6:17 pm ET

Company Insiders Bought Stock at Record Pace in August As Credit Market Woes Stunned Market


NEW YORK (AP) -- Insiders purchased shares of their companies' stock at a record pace in August, analysts said, as credit market deterioration threw stocks into a tailspin during the month.
The trend of buying among insiders, who are typically long-term investors, was one of the few bullish signals last month, said InsiderScore.com, a Web site that tracks insider transactions.

According to Thomson Financial, insiders drove buying volumes to their highest monthly levels since 1990, with $465.5 million in purchases.

Insiders in the energy, retail and insurance industries led the buying spree, said InsiderScore.com analysts in a research report released Wednesday.

In the energy sector, insider buying was at its strongest since the spring of 2005, boosted by large purchases by RPC Inc. Chairman Randall Rollins, Cheniere Energy Partners LP Chief Executive Charif Souki and insiders at other companies.

Schlumberger Ltd. Director Michael Marks and Nustar GP Holdings LLC Director William E. Greehey also bought shares as their companies' stock came down from 52-week highs.

In the retail sector, which was hurt as economic uncertainty slowed shopping this summer, top executives at several companies bought stock as shares fell to 52-week lows in August.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Chairman Jay Schottenstein and other insiders bought 184,575 shares. Barnes & Noble Inc. Chairman Leonard Riggio bought 100,000 shares, his first purchase in two years. The CEO of Best Buy Co.'s international operations bought 11,300 shares, the largest insider purchase of the electronics retailer's stock in more than two years.

In the insurance sector, more than 10 insiders bought shares at Conseco Inc. after the company's stock plunged in August. Also, Prudential Financial Inc. Chief Financial Officer Richard J. Carbone bought 10,000 shares last month.

Unitrin Inc. and American Financial Group Inc. were among other insurance providers that reported large insider purchases in August.

In other sectors, Yahoo Inc. President Susan Decker and Director Arthur Kern bought more than 65,000 shares of the Internet search company, which has slipped against rival Goggle Inc.

Also, three directors of American Express Co. bought 63,000 shares of the credit card company in August.

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# 20

Mer här:-))

Brokers Report Earnings This Week

The market is waiting to see how much effect the crunch will have, how much their asset holdings (which are marked to market) will be devalued, how recent volatility has affected trading profits (they should be up) and how much the slowdown in M&A activity has hurt profits.

Many financial pundits are starting to say that the big brokers are so devalued that they are bargains. Maybe so, but they may be more of a bargain after next week? unless you think they have not been affected by the sheer immensity of the summer?s crunch and the fact that some of their most profitable activities have been virtually stopped dead in their tracks.

http://www.callwriter.com/blog/2007/09/10/brokers-report-earnings-this-week/ 

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Dow Jones Home Construction Index

ner  65% och vi lär se mer. Vi får se om den kommer att slå nasdaq som föll med 78% sedan toppen 2000:-))

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Homebuilder

Since its peak on July 20, 2005, the S&P 1500 Homebuilder index is down 61%. The Homebuilders started their rise of 839% on March 14, 2000 (just 4 days after the Nasdaq peaked).

se bild

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Smart drag

Rising Euro Is What China Needs to Dump Dollar: Andy Mukherjee

What was more interesting about the statistics this week was that they confirmed a geographical reshuffle in China's exports, away from the U.S. and toward the euro area.

And that shift may have an impact on how far the yuan is allowed to rise against the dollar.

....

The Chinese currency is selling for about 7.51 to the dollar. It has risen almost 6 percent against the U.S. currency in the past year while falling more than 3 percent against the euro, leaving the overall competitiveness of China's exports little changed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=af6setTpU2SA&refer=home

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Debt storm likely to head west and engulf Japan

But the focus of this debt storm rolling round the world?s financial system will shift again next week, this time back to the US. If a UK lender can get into so much trouble, think how bad it is for lenders in America, where the credit crunch has its origins.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/15/ccom115.xml

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Holy smokes

Report: Greenspan says euro could replace U.S. dollar as reserve currency of choice

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/17/business/EU-FIN-MKT-Germany-Greenspan-Euro.php

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New Highs fortfarande ligger på låga nivåer vilket är skrämmande...

Nu måste Bernanke göra nåt... annars  kommer det att sluta illa speciellt om han vägrar sänka räntan...

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Mer om earnings:-)))

Worst Wall Street Quarter Since 2001 Tempered by Goldman's Gain

``This is a more important period than the turbulence of 2001,'' said Peter Solomon, chairman and founder of New York- based investment bank Peter J. Solomon Co. and a former executive at New York-based Lehman. ``This is credit and this is risk. This turmoil is aimed right at the heart of their business, so everybody is interested in how they have managed.''

If the analysts are right, and they've underestimated the firms' profits for the past six quarters, it would be the worst year-on-year decline in earnings per share since the second quarter of 2005. When Goldman is excluded, it becomes the biggest drop since the fourth quarter of 2001.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a3e60HBySgPk&refer=exclusive

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Bernard Kouchner: rebel and patriot

The former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali once called Kouchner 'an unguided missile' and the man himself has been known to declare: "To change the law you sometimes have to break the law". He was in his youth one of the leaders of the students revolt in France in May 1968.

Kouchner is a humanitarian as well as a patriot, with a strong commitment to human rights. Unusually for a man of the Left, he supported the US-led intervention in Iraq (while criticizing the aftermath). But he did so on the grounds of Saddam Hussein's denial of human rights, not his possible possession of weapons of mass destruction. His and President Sarkozy's concern for human rights lies behind their eagerness to join Gordon Brown's Britain in a new push for action in Darfur.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/09/17/bernard.kouchner/

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Glöm inte att vi har

Options Expiration Week

While volatility is likely to be high this week given Tuesday's Fed meeting, the fact that it's also options expiration week should only add fuel to the fire. Below we highlight the performance of the S&P 500 during options expiration weeks since 2006. Typically, Wednesdays have the highest overall return with an average gain of 0.25%. Although the average change on Tuesdays is only 0.05%, it is actually the most volatile day of the week. Over the last twenty months, the S&P 500 has had a 1% move nine times (45%).

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Greenspan warns of higher inflation-paper

AMSTERDAM, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Inflation will rise to about 5 percent in Europe and the United States, said former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in an interview with a Dutch paper, published on Monday.

Interest rates would have to rise towards 10 percent because of higher inflation, Greenspan told NRC Handelsblad.

"The lower inflation of the last two decades will turn out to be a once-only event, the exception that confirms the rule," Greenspan was quoted as saying.



"The normal inflation level is closer to 5 percent than the current 2 percent," Greenspan said, adding that the 5 percent level fitted an economy with a "paper" standard, where currency is not linked to gold.

About the current credit squeeze, caused by defaults on U.S. home loans made to borrowers with poor credit records, Greenspan said: "This was an accident that was waiting to happen, it had to happen. Too many risks have been taken."

"At the beginning of this year I estimated the chances of a recession at one in three. Probably, that is currently still the case," the paper quoted Greenspan as saying.

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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Lehman Brothers redovisar ett
resultat på 1:54 dollar per aktie för räkenskapsårets tredje
kvartal, juni-augusti (1:57).

Analytikernas förväntningar låg på ett resultat på 1:47
dollar per aktie, enligt First Call.

Intäkterna uppgick till 4,3 miljarder dollar (4,2). Här
låg förväntningarna på 4,3 miljarder dollar enligt Bloomberg
News prognossammanställning./GV

Intäkterna från investmentbanking steg med 48 procent
under kvartalet till 1.070 miljoner dollar (726).

Försäljningen av räntebaserade värdepapper minskade med
47 procent under kvartalet och uppgick till 1,1 miljarder
dollar (2,0).

Investmentbanken skriver i delårsrapporten att den
skrivit ned värdena inom området för räntebaserade värdepapper
vilket påverkat försäljningen negativt med 700 miljoner
dollar./GV-MT

Nyhetsbyrån Direkt

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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Värdet på utländska investerares och
regeringars nettoköp av amerikanska tillgångar uppgick till
19,2 miljarder dollar i juli, att jämföra med reviderade 97,3
miljarder dollar månaden före (120,9).

Det visar statistik från USA:s finansdepartement, enligt
Bloomberg News.

Analytiker hade väntat sig ett inflöde på 85,0 miljarder
dollar, enligt Bloomberg News prognosenkät. USA:s
utrikeshandel genererade ett underskott på 59,2 miljarder
dollar i juli.

Utländska aktörers innehav av amerikanska statspapper
sjönk med 2,4 miljarder dollar, hypoteksobligationer
(government agency bonds) steg med 1,2 miljarder dollar och
företagsobligationer steg med 3,2 miljarder dollar. Innehav av
aktier steg samtidigt med 18,4 miljarder dollar.

Japan minskade sina innehav av amerikanska statspapper
med 2,3 miljarder dollar i juli medan Kina ökade innehaven med
2,7 miljarder dollar./ED-PD



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# 0

STOCKHOLM (Direkt)

"Det är tveksamt om det spelar någon roll om Fed sänker
räntan med 25 eller 50 punkter utan det viktiga är hur Fed
uttalar sig. Marknaden vill höra att man kommer sänka mer och
att de har en positiv syn på ekonomin. Blir det däremot
oförändrat med anledning av att de är fortsatt oroliga för
inflationen kan det säkert skaka till marknaderna ordentligt",
säger en mäklarchef.

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STOCKHOLM (Direkt)Oljepriset fortsatte stiga efter
Federal Reserves räntebesked på tisdagen, samtidigt nådde
guldpriset sin högsta notering på 27 år.

Vid New York Mercantile Exchange stängning noterades
WTI-oljan med leverans i oktober till 81:48 dollar per fat,
upp 0:91 dollar. Brentoljan kostade samtidigt 77:68 dollar per
fat, upp 0:70 dollar sedan måndagens stängning.

Trots att analytikerna redan prisat in en räntesänkning
på 25 punkter, fick den överraskande stora sänkningen effekten
att oljepriset letade sig ytterligare högre efter Feds besked.

Många analytiker menar att en svagare dollar kan bidra
till att investerare köper oljeterminer.

Även silver och guldpriserna letade sig uppåt efter
beskedet. Guldpriset noterades till 733:40 dollar, vilket är
det högsta på 27 år.

Nickel noterades 1.750 dollar upp, på 30.750 dollar per
ton. Koppar steg 85 dollar, till 7.585 dollar per ton.

Zinkpriset noterades på 2.840 dollar per ton, 60 dollar
upp, och aluminium steg 12 dollar, till 2.407 dollar per
ton./CM

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Sagt om räntan 

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Avkastningskurvan för amerikanska räntor brantade, börserna steg och dollarn tappade efter att Fed sänkt räntan på tisdagenSTOCKHOLM (Direkt)

"Dagens åtgärd avser att hjälpa till att förebygga vissa av de negativa effekterna på den bredare ekonomin som annars skulle kunna uppstå från störningarna på de finansiella marknaderna och för att stödja en måttlig tillväxt över tiden", skrev Fomc."

Många kommentatorer syntes imponerade av den djärva och
proaktiva hållning som Fed visade med den stora
räntesänkningen.

"De har lärt sig läxan från tidigare bubblor som brustit
att nyckeln är att gå in där fort och aggressivt. Tre till sex
månader från nu, eftersom Fed gick så aggressivt nu, så kommer
de att behöva sänka mindre", sade Robert Tipp, strateg på
Prudential Investment Management till Bloomberg News.
Många kommentatorer syntes imponerade av den djärva och
proaktiva hållning som Fed visade med den stora
räntesänkningen.

John Ryding, ekonom på Bear Stearns, noterade att
guldpriset steg till en 27-årshögsta notering samtidigt som
dollarn föll till en ny bottennotering mot euron efter
räntebeskedet. Det gör att han räknar med att Fed snart blir
mer bekymrad över inflationsutsikterna, och att tisdagens
räntesänkning måste tas tillbaka redan 2008.

Pimco-chefen Bill Gross, som länge förutspått att Fed
ska börja sänka räntan under 2007, tror att Fed kan komma att
sänka räntan med ytterligare 1 procentenhet för att minska
trycket på ekonomin från nedgången på bostadsmarknaden.

"Bostadsmarknaden kommer att ge incitamentet att sänka
och sänka fed funds-räntorna", sade han till Bloomberg News.

För att behålla en tillväxt på 2,5 eller 3 procent så
innebär det att fed funds slutligen måste ned till åtminstone
3,75 procent. Pimco reviderade på tisdagen ned deras BNP-
prognos till mellan 1,25 och 1,75 procent under det kommande
året. Om detta stämmer så måste Fed nu snabbt och kraftfullt
börja sin väg nedåt med styrräntan, enligt Bill Gross.

Bill Gross konstaterade också att bara två gånger under
de senaste 20 åren har Fed startat en räntesänkningscykel med
en 50 punkters sänkning. Båda gångerna har ekonomin fallit ned
i recession.

"Jag säger inte att vi kommer att göra det nu. Jag säger
bara att Fed har ögonen på bostadsmarknaden", sade Bill Gross.

Tony Crescenzi på Miller Tabak & Co skrev i en kommentar
att det finns två teman i Fomc-meddelandet som antyder Feds
agerande framöver. Det ena är att Fed anser att de nu agerar
proaktivt, och att i ljuset av inflationsriskerna bör man inte
vänta sig fler stora räntesänkningar. Det andra är att även om
storleken på framtida räntesänkningar troligen kommer att bli
mindre, så lämnade Fed dörren öppen för fler sänkningar.

Vad gäller det senare gjorde Fed det på två sätt: dels
genom vad de inte sade. Till skillnad från tidigare Fomc-
uttalanden innehöll detta ingen prognos om fortsatt dämpad
tillväxt, utan bara en intention om att räntesänkningen
syftade till att "gynna dämpad tillväxt". Dels genom att ta
med standardfrasen om att de kommer att "agera efter behov"
för att främja prisstabilitet och uthållig tillväxt.

Tony Crescenzi konstaterar också att det enda skälet
till att Fed-ledamöterna inte styrt marknadens förväntningar
mot en 50 punkters sänkning var att de ville ha kvar
överraskningsmomentet, vilket är ett kraftfullt verktyg. Men
därmed missar man också den transparens som skulle vara ett
kännetecken för Ben Bernankes Fed.

Det är också värt att notera att ingen av de tio
röstande i Fomc reserverade sig, vilket nästan säkert inte är
representativt för sentimentet mot en 50 punkters sänkning.
Detta kommer också att bli mer uppenbart framöver.

"En negativ vinkel idag är att det kan skapa orimliga
förväntningar om framtida räntesänkningar, vilket kräver aktig
vägledning från Federal Reserve vad gäller den troligen vägen
för penningpolitiken. Fed kanske hoppas att inkommande data
och stabilitet på marknaderna kommer att vägleda
förväntningarna nedåt av sig självt", skriver Tony Crescenzi.

Nordea skrev i en kommentar att Fomc-uttalandet inte
hänvisar till en riskbalans mellan tillväxt och inflation. Men
som helhet antyder uttalandet att den huvudsakliga oroskällan
är tillväxten. Fed noterade att utvecklingen på
finansmarknaderna sedan förra mötet har ökat osäkerheten runt
de ekonomiska utsikterna. Centralbanken upprepade heller inte
att ekonomin väntas växa i en dämpad tillväxt kommande
kvartal, vilket de skrev i uttalandet efter Fomc-mötet 7
augusti.

"Trots det utfärdades ingen garanti om fortsatta
sänkningar. Men, givet vår pessimistiska prognos för USA-
ekonomin och inte minst vad gäller husmarknaden, så tror vi
att Fed kommer att behöva sänka räntan ytterligare två gånger
med 25 punkter. Timingen kommer att avgöras av inkommande
data", skriver Nordea.

Ian Morris på HSBC å sin sida skrev att Fed kan ha gjort
ett "servess" genom sitt djärva och proaktiva agerande. Men
bortsett från en paralysering på finansmarknaderna så kommer
det att bli svårare för Fed att sänka mer utan en BNP-tillväxt
under 2 procent. Tillväxten under andra kvartalet var 4
procent och tredje kvartalet ser ut att gå emot 2,5 till 3
procent. Även om sysselsättningsrapporten för augusti var
svag, så kan vi vara övertygade om att denna svaghet bara
kommer att bestå om antalet nyanmälda arbetslösa börjar stiga,
arbetslöshetsnivån börjar gå upp och indexen över
konsumentförtroendet går ned.

"Detta kan hända väldigt snabbt, men så här långt har
det inte gjort det. Därför, sammantaget, så tror vi att Fed
kommer att göra en paus i oktober", skriver HSBC.

Wall Street Journal varnar för att räntesänkningen kan
ge nytt liv åt ansvarslöst låntagande. Ett tecken på detta
syntes omedelbart i prissättningen för "junkbonds" för
exempelvis General Motors och Harrah´s Entertainment.



Peter Schiff, ekonom på Euro Pacific Capital, kallar
däremot sänkningen för "oansvarig" och liknar den med att
försöka bota en baksmälla med en återställare. "Och det är ett
tyst medgivande om att vår ekonomi är beroende av billiga
pengar".

"En Fed-bailout i form av räntesänkningar kommer varken
stoppa recessionen eller förhindra att huspriserna kollapsar.
Det kan fördröja processen några kvartal, men det kommer att
kosta oss dyrt", skrev Peter Schiff.

Drew Matus, ekonom på Lehman Brothers, tycker dock att
det ser ut som att Fed tänker nöja sig med en stor sänkning
för att därefter avvakta, givet att de ändå noterar
inflationsrisker.

"När jag skriver detta räknar vi inte längre med att Fed
sänker räntan i oktober men den hållningen, liksom Feds, är
fortsatt databeroende", skrev Drew Matus.

Wall Street Journal noterar samtidigt att beslutet att
sänka diskontoräntan kommer efter förfrågningar från endast
sju av de tolv regionala Fedbankerna.

Reportern Sudeep Reddy skriver att de fem banker som
inte begärde en diskontosänkning kan vara en indikation på att
dessa bankchefers attityd till tisdagens aggressiva sänkning.
Men det kan också vara en signal om att de anser att åtgärden
är tämligen meningslös givet att diskontofönstret inte
utnyttjats i någon större utsträckning, trots att Fed
uppmuntrade banker att utnyttja faciliteten i samband med att
diskontoräntan sänktes med 50 punkter den 17 augusti.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Bernanke Cuts on Slump `Potential,' Adopting Greenspan Approach

The larger-than-expected rate cut ``is a repeat of a mistake that the Fed made over and over,'' said Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. The Fed ``put all of its chips on the prospect of a possible recession, and very little on the possibility of inflation.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLkKIWpMEEz4&refer=home

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Lite statistik:

The Fed cut rate 3 times in 1998, but  took all those cuts back and then some in 1999...

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

#40 Fast inverkan på börsen var ju rätt bra den gången...gick ju spikrakt upp under -99... 

Dollar:-))

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Country Performance Since the 7/19

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Bernanke Abolishes Corrections and Bank Losses (9/19/07) 

Mvh amco

Bernanke faces political heat on subprime

Ben Bernanke will on Thursday face political heat on Capitol Hill after the Federal Reserve reversed course and cut interest rates for the first time since 2003.

Mr Bernanke had told Congress in March that "the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained".

Senator Charles Schumer, Democratic chairman of the joint economic committee, said Mr Bernanke now had his "hands full considering August's bad economic news - zero job growth, a weakening housing market, and a severe spike in fore­closures".

"When a conservative Fed drops the interest rate this much it is obvious that the economy is in some degree of trouble," he said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20845776/

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

# 44

 FOMC now Stands for Friend Of Market Committee"

:-))

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

It is also plausible that the Philly Fed survey due Thursday will come in worst than expectations

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8446.htm

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke opposed allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgages higher than $417,000, saying any such effort by Congress could undermine momentum toward strengthening regulation of the two largest U.S. mortgage finance companies.

Such congressional action ``would be ill-advised if it has the practical effect of reducing the incentives to achieve meaningful'' regulatory tightening over the companies, Bernanke said in a Sept. 17 letter to Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

Frank and other Democrats, seeking to reverse the biggest housing market slump in 16 years, have called on the Bush administration to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy bigger mortgages and expand their $1.5 trillion investment portfolios. The companies' regulator announced today it will allow the companies to annually increase their purchases of home loans and mortgage bonds by 2 percent.

Bernake in the letter opposed any increase in the portfolio limit. ``Both the size and composition of the portfolios should be tied to reforms that both reduce the systemic risks posed by the portfolios and also clarify the public purpose,'' Bernanke said



" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Economists React: (1)

The FOMC makes it sound like "one and done" as it cuts both the Fed funds and discount rate by 50 basis points but continues to note inflation risks? As of this writing, we no longer look for the Fed to cut rates in October but that position, like the Fed?s, remains data dependent. -Drew Matus, Lehman Brothers

We applaud this bold move. We think the Fed?s intentions here are threefold, first to get more bang for the buck by surprising the markets, second to make it clear the Fed is serious about maintaining stability and third to make room for the incoming data flow to tell them what is happening in the real economy. By easing more than expected now it will be easier for the Fed not to act again on October 31 unless the data are catastrophic? The risks of this ease are trivial compared to the risks of not acting boldly to limit the damage done. If the economy turns out to be strong ? ! ? they can always reverse it. Don?t bet on it. -Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

Today?s irresponsible 50 basis point reduction is really just the hair of the dog that bit us and is a tacit admission that our economy is addicted to cheap money? A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly. -Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital

We suspect that the references to inflation concerns in today?s statement may have been necessary to achieve a unanimous vote. We did not anticipate that there would be any dissents to a [quarter percentage point] move, but are a bit surprised that no dissenting votes were cast on the [half percentage point] outcome. In any case, the bottom line is that the Fed?s options remain open. -David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley Research

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Economists React: (2)

 Bold action was needed to deal with the rapid evolution of events in the past several weeks in the economy and the financial markets, and bold action is what the Fed delivered. The FOMC has also left the door open for further rate action before the end of the year, and we believe that the Fed will move to reduce the federal funds rate by an additional [quarter percentage point] on October 31. -Brian Bethune, Global Insight

Today?s FOMC action may be more significant for psychological rather than economic reasons. To a large extent, the risks to economic growth stemming from the credit market turmoil would be due to greater uncertainty and the loss of confidence? [This] cut should be seen as front-loading, and should not raise expectations of a series of rate cuts over coming quarters. -Richard Moody, Mission Residential

The Federal Reserve Board has taken strong action to alleviate the market turmoil? This is a clear signal that the Fed is willing to provide liquidity and reduce market turbulence. At this time, however, the risk of a recession over the next 12 months is still 35% due to the weak growth, market turmoil and elevated oil prices. Slow growth should lower inflation further, so the Fed should have few concerns about inflation and is expected to continue cutting rates. -Kurt Karl, Swiss Re

The FOMC moved aggressively to counter the adverse impacts of the recent financial market turmoil on the economy. In addition, they are prepared to do more if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. Nevertheless, they continue to say that they remain concerned about the potential inflation risks. Given the usual lags between changes in interest rates and changes in economic activity as well as the slowing in economic growth has is already taking place, we anticipate additional rate cuts over the balance of this year and the early part of next year. -Steven Wood, Insight Economics

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

The weekly figures from Investors Intelligence

The percent bullish came in at 53.9 (versus 48.3 last week)

The percent bearish registered 27.0 (versus 31.0 last week)

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Few Asian Nations Will Celebrate `Bernanke Put':

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aiYdrMHae0WQ&refer=home

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright

"Saudi Arabia has $800bn (£400bn) in their future generation fund, and the entire region has $3,500bn under management. They face an inflationary threat and do not want to import an interest rate policy set for the recessionary conditions in the United States," he said.

The Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/19/bcnsaudi119.xml

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Risken för en recession i USA är
fortfarande lite över en på tre, även efter Federal Reserves
beslut att sänka räntan denna vecka.

Det sade förre Fed-chefen Alan Greenspan på torsdagen,
enligt Bloomberg News.

"Kom ihåg att vi fortfarande har ett problem där ute,
vilket är ett stort överhäng av osålda nyligen byggda hem",
sade han, och tillade att huspriserna är ned med bara 3
procent men att de tydligt rör sig lägre.

Han sade också att vi sannolikt kommer att få en viss
dämpning i konsumtionen, men att vi ännu inte har sett det./MS

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Rate cut makes bear feel more golden than ever  

Fed frenzy? As stocks surge for the second day after the rate cut, bulls feel vindicated but so does at least one bear.

länk

Alan Greenspan

välj videos ,sen  most recent  och därefter  bara att välja Greenspan:-))

http://www.comedycentral.com/shows/the_daily_show/index.jhtml

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

# 47

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Philadelphia Federal Reserves
månatliga index visar på en ökad ekonomisk aktivitet i
näringslivet i september, jämfört med månaden före.

Indexet steg till 10,9 från oreviderade 0,0 månaden
före. Analytikerna hade räknat med ett index på 2,6 enligt
Bloomberg News snittprognos.

Prisindex steg till 23,1 från 15,4 månaden före.

Index över nya order steg till 15,1 från 7,1 månaden
före.

Sysselsättningsindex sjönk däremot till 7,5 från 21,2
förra månaden.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

"I've been dealing with these big mathematical models of forecasting the economy, and I'm looking at what's going on in the last few weeks. ... If I could figure out a way to determine whether or not people are more fearful or changing to more euphoric ? I don't need any of this other stuff. I could forecast the economy better than any way I know. Forecasting 50 years ago was as good or as bad as it is today. And the reason is that human nature hasn't changed."

Alan Greenspan

#56

Alan Greenspan on The Daily Show?   ?if I could just predict people's cycle from euphoria to fear, I wouldn't need any other models, but unfortunately we can't do that.?"

And ?

"He (Greenspan) said that he has spent 50 years using complex mathematical models for economic forecasting but ultimately basic human emotions/nature of fear and greed are the main determinants. He actually said that if he could find a model that predicts these aspects he would have better results than using any other model! Unfortunately, according to Greenspan, no such model exists.

.....

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

#58 haha, under 2 decennier satt det alltså en hemlig TA-nörd i ledningen för den globala ekonomin utan att vi fick veta  ;-) 

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

Är det möjligen nån som kan lägga in den där hi/high - by/buy-bilden här. Börjar förstå Allan nu.....  

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

#60 As you wish...

#61 :-) den har jag inte sett förut, men jag tänkte på den där Allan kommer in och säger "hi"/"high" till marknaden. 

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.