USA vecka 41

Earnings reporters are increasingly lively next week, as the new earnings season "officially" kicks off. Investors will hear from top companies including: YUM! Brands (YUM) on Monday; M&T Bank (MTB) and Alcoa (AA) on Tuesday; Costco (COST), Progressive (PGR) and Computer Sciences (CSC) on Wednesday; PepsiCo (PEP) and Supervalu (SVU) on Thursday; and General Electric (GE) is the lone reporter on Friday.

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Earnings 2 

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Angående olika divergenser ni kan väl läsa förljande:

Technical Market Report
by Mike Burk

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8558.htm

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SPX 

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

SOX weekly... slutat - 0,25%

Kaos

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Transport

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Guld weekly

Slutat på - 0,37% 

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USD weekly

slutat på +0,69%

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Rut 

Upp 4,90% i vecka men fortfarande under toppen från juli (855,77)

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The dollar initially jumped on the jobless news, as futures markets suggested increasing uncertainty over a second interest rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on 31 October. However, the greenback closed only flat as traders noted continued selling from Middle Eastern and other investors. Earlier this week, the Qatari government said it had scaled back its dollar investments and reports said Vietnam was switching some holdings into euros. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 91.70 at 14,066.01 and the broader S&P hit a new all-time high.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3033458.ece


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Goldman Record Income  

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who are preparing for a crash.  

Mason says implied volatility, a measure that calculates expected price swings of an underlying asset and is used as a barometer for options prices, shows many investors are betting that stocks may fall.

Since Aug. 15, the implied volatility of put options that lock in gains should the S&P 500 drop at least 10 percent in six months has averaged 24.08 percent, according to data from Morgan Stanley, the second-largest U.S. securities firm by market value after New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

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# 12

David Tice, who runs the $789 million Prudent Bear Fund in Dallas, is more pessimistic. He owns S&P 500 put options because stocks could ``easily'' decline by more than 50 percent in the next 12 months to 24 months.

Tice says the latest rebound only delays an inevitable crash, comparing it to when ``somebody falls out of a 95-story building.''

``They haven't hit the ground yet,'' he said, ``But they're getting closer and closer.''

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all the signals tell us the risks are very high 

"I shake my head because history is pretty convincing about trying to inflate your way out of problems," says Mr. Simons. "It always ends badly."




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# 13

Douglas Peta, of investment-management firm J&W Seligman & Co., is more upbeat but guardedly so. Like many bulls, he believes the worst of the recent shakeout in the mortgage market is over. He believes U.S. stocks are still reasonably cheap relative to their expected earnings and that as long as the U.S. avoids a recession, there should be room for the market to rise.

But Mr. Peta and other analysts are a bit cautious about the fourth quarter, historically one of the strongest for the market, with the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 averaging gains of around 4%. This year, the third quarter was stronger than usual, which has some analysts wondering whether the market might have effectively "borrowed" gains that would usually come later in the year.

In several instances -- including 1987, when the Dow industrials suffered an October crash -- a strong performance in the third quarter was followed by rough going late in the year. The Dow rose 7.4% in 1987's third period.

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# 0

Många har ett öga på Transport som ligger just nu - 1,54%

Och över 9% från juli toppen:-))

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This is Columbus Day. The banks are closed, the bond market is closed.

Columbus Day

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avgörande läge

ska det bryta uppåt eller...?

..är allt glömt (inprisat redovisat) i och med Q3 och "back on track" Q4?

BKX

# 16

varför bevaka transport! 

Ryder Says Earnings Missed Forecast

Ryder System Inc., the largest U.S. truck-leasing company, said third-quarter earnings were less than it forecast as the economy weakened beyond housing and reduced demand for freight-hauling trucks. The shares fell the most since 2004.

Profit was $1.12 to $1.14 a share, Miami-based Ryder said in a statement today. The forecast before the preliminary results had been $1.20 to $1.23. Ryder also said it's trimming 300 jobs.

Ryder said the economy ``softened considerably in more industries'' and hurt its fleet-management unit, which generated 62 percent of first-half sales. Customers of the division, which leases trucks and sells services such as fueling and maintenance, include companies such as Home Depot Inc. and Domino's Pizza Inc., Key Capital Markets analyst Todd Fowler said.

....

Aktien faller nu med 8%

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#17  Columbus day

  Spx 

  I dag är omsättningen usel pga omständigheterna  vi ligger  kl 2100 på

  1,1 Mdr skall jämföras med MA50  2,8 Mdr close.  

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Financial markets are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve won't cut its overnight interest rate target later this month. According to prices in the Chicago Board of Trade's federal funds futures market, the implied odds of an October rate cut fell from 48% to 38% on Tuesday. The market still expects the Fed to cut its target to 4.50% in December. Later Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will release the summary of its Sept. 18 meeting, when the committee slashed the overnight rate from 5.25% to 4.75%, surprising markets. Two influential Fed bank presidents -- William Poole and Janet Yellen -- are speaking later Tuesday

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Until recently, the ISEE was a little more prone to fence-sitting, but that changed with yesterday?s 187 reading, the highest single day reading since August 2006. On the heels of that large number comes a wave of call buying this morning that has the ISEE at 270 as of 11:10 EDT. Now it is not unusual to see extreme readings in the ISEE early in the day, when the denominator is low, but what is unusual is to see those extreme readings get even more extreme as the day wears on, such as the ISEE actually jumping up from 257 to 270 during the last 40 minutes. This development bears watching?

Market sentiment

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While the S&P 500 has more than doubled since the start of the bull's run (100.3%), in Euro terms, the gains are less than half that (43.8%).

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Alcoa May Offer Blueprint On Coping in Markets Storm
By Robert Guy Matthews

# 1

Even though Alcoa Inc. announced that it will take an $845 million charge to sell its consumer packaging and automotive-related divisions, plenty remains to be seen when it reports third-quarter earnings on Tuesday.

As one of the first multinationals out with quarterly earnings, Alcoa will show Wall Street how corporate America is weathering the tighter credit, weakening dollar and a continued strong demand for commodities across the globe.

The bulls aren't likely to be disappointed and the bears won't see too much to wring their hands about, either. In other words, the upside of commodity demand will help offset the ...

Bild Alcoa

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S&P 500 Stocks Above Their 50-Day Moving Averages

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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - With the economic outlook in the wake of the financial market turmoil highly uncertain, Federal Reserve officials agreed that a half a percentage point rate cut was "the most prudent course of action," but said only that future actions would depend on how the economy fared in coming weeks, according to a summary of the Sept. 18 meeting released Tuesday. There was no opposition to the rate cut. Fed officials were so uncertain about the outlook that they refused to provide the traditional balance of risk statement, language that indicates to the market whether the Fed believes it must focus its policy attention on higher inflation or slower growth. Such a statement in mid-September "could give the mistaken impression that the FOMC was more certain about the economic outlook that was in fact the case," the summary said. The FOMC cut rates by a half-point to 4.75% on Sept. 18, a decision that caught many analysts by surprise.

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Rydex Internet Fund Rydex Internet Fund

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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska centralbanken Federal
Reserve avslutade det senaste Fomc-mötet utan någon specifik
plan för några ytterligare räntesänkningar eftersom de var
osäkra på hur marknaden och den ekonomiska tillväxten skulle
utvecklas

...

Alla ledamöter instämde i den bästa åtgärden var att
sänka styrräntan med 50 punkter. Efter räntebeslutet fortsatte
ledamöterna att diskutera kommunikationsfrågor och andra
policyalternativ för att lätta på trycket på
penningmarknaderna.

"Inga beslut fattades vid denna session, men mötet
enades om att beslutsfattarna borde fortsätta att överväga
sådana alternativ noga", framgår det av protokollet.

Samtidigt fortsatte Fedledamöter att uttrycka oro för
inflation, bland annat med hänvisning till stigande
arbetskostnader och en allt svagare dollar.

"Inflationsriskerna kan stiga om dollarn skulle
fortsätta att depreciera kraftigt", framgår det av
protokollet./PD-SO

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Qatar says oil prices should top 100 dollars 

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# 19

From 1997 through 2006, the number of containers handled by the twin ports grew by about 10% a year -- from 6.5 million 20-foot containers to 15.8 million. But through August, the two ports were running less than 1% ahead of last year's record pace of imports and exports.

"It doesn't appear that there will be any real growth this year," said Don Snyder, director of trade relations for the Port of Long Beach.

Cargo decline is another sign of slowing economy

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Trots att Nasdaq, NDZ 100 ligger på plus... så faller SOX med 1,37% 

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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Börserna i New York stärkte
uppgångarna under den senare delen av tisdagshandeln, styrkta
av den amerikanska centralbanken Federal Reserves uttalanden i
protokollet från det senaste räntemötet den 18 september.

Strax innan klockan 21 hade Dow Jones stigit 0,6
procent, medan S&P 500-index och Nasdaq avancerat 0,5 procent.

Protokollet från det senaste mötet för den amerikanska
centralbankens räntekommitté, fomc, tolkades av marknaden som
att centralbanken är beredd att göra ytterligare
räntesänkningar för att stärka den amerikanska ekonomin,
enligt Thomson Financial.

Aha...

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers left their Sept. 18 meeting without any specific plan for further interest-rate cuts because they were unsure how markets and economic growth would evolve, minutes of the meeting show.

``Further actions would depend on how economic prospects were affected by evolving market developments and by other factors,''

express concern about inflation at the Septembe

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Yellen says keeping open mind  

"These are uncertain times. Any forecast and any analysis of events should be made with a great deal of humility about its correctness," Yellen said in a speech on Los Angeles.

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New Highs Trending Indicator ...

Inte så bra...eftersom vi har en negativ divergens

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The weekly figures from Investors Intelligence

The percent bullish came in at 60.2 (versus 56.5 last week)

The percent bearish registered 21.5 (versus 25.0 last week).

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S&P 500 Q3 earns likely to turn negative Thursday 

 "It's a little bit disturbing," he said. "But the market still seems to want to go up, and absorbs the bad news."

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"We're beginning to see some negative earnings reports come out," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
"Percentage-wise, I would expect more disappointments than pleasant surprises, so for the next week or so we could see this market give up 3% to 5% on slower earnings growth," Cardillo said"

the punishment didn't really fit the crime

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Bush Says Resolution Would Harm U.S.-Turkey Relations  

President George W. Bush said a congressional resolution calling for the killings of Armenians in Turkey nine decades ago to be designated as genocide ``would do great harm'' to a crucial U.S. alliance.

``We all deeply regret the tragic suffering of the Armenian people,'' Bush said today on the White House South Lawn. ``This resolution is not the right response to these mass killings.''

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Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley, the world's second- biggest securities firm, said its quantitative strategy traders lost $390 million during a single day in August as their computer models failed to account for ``widespread'' investor selling.

The company's traders lost money on 14 days during the quarter ended Aug. 31, ``with the largest single-day trading loss being $390 million,'' the New York-based firm said in a quarterly regulatory filing today.

Morgan Stanley said last month that the quantitative strategies group lost $480 million during the quarter after they were caught off-guard when other investors sold securities to reduce borrowings. The company disclosed today that daily trading losses during the quarter exceeded the firm's trading value-at- risk calculation on six days during the quarter.

The filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission also shows that the firm's traders generated more than $100 million of trading revenue on about 19 days during the quarter.

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# 0

Transport fortsätter ner:-))

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SOX under MA 200 och 50 

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Veckan så länge:

NASDAQ 100 visar - 0.32 %,

S&P 500  + 0.19%

Dow minus 0.36%

Volym högre än senaste dagarna

the S&P 500. 2,921 million shares were traded on the index today - this exceeds the index's average daily volume seen over the past 3 months by 6%.

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