USA 42 a wild week
En ny vecka där verkligheten slåss mot drömmarna och förhoppningar vi alla har. Den matematiska tänkandet kämpar mot den icke matematiska... Den subjuktiva mot det objektiva och det är säkert det som avgör om vi kommer att lyckas med att trada och investera rätt eller fel. Vem bestämmer? En svår fråga att besvara.
Det händer att jag ibland lyssnar på mitt hjärta mer än vad alla charten säger... Jag vet ofta att en aktie skall upp men istället för att köpa så säljer jag. Varför det.Nu ha det blivit mycket bättre men det finns fortfarande en klocka nånstans i min själ som då och då ringer att jag skall sälja när jag måste köpa eller köpa när jag skall sälja.
Jag tar ett ex... jag är nästan säkert att S&P 500 skall mot 1600 men nånstans i min själ skriker nån att vi kommer att rasa ordentligt ´vilken dag som helst innan oktober är slut...
När jag känner att sådant känsla som jag tyvärr inte kan bekämpa,,, vad ska jag göra. Jag känner mig fast skedjat vid denna tanke att jag inte längre känner att jag kan agera på nåt annat än att jag låter tankan växa med att hitta ett objektiv svar för denna känsla. Denna känsla födes när Fed sänkte räntan med 50 punkter...
Känslan har blivit starkare och starkare speciellt när jag ser hur olika index beter sig. En del index lyckas notera nya toppoteringar andra inte! hur uppgångar sker under låga volymer men nedgången under höga ( vecka41) ( negativa divergenser) Dollars fall gör mig mycket orolig och mest skrämmande att man skriver att företagen räknat med en fallande dollar...
Jag kommer att följa denna "mönster" tills jag får ett svar...
Nästa vecka kommer att bjuda på en del statistik och earnings från viktiga företag som rör teknik sektor... som varit ledare senaste tiden... Vi har motrola, nokia, Google...
Sen en del ekonomisk statistik( se bild)
Två viktiga punkter att tänka på, den första vi har optionslösen på fredag 19 Oktober... och det är på denna dag väldens börsen firar " the 20th anniversary of the 1987 crash... what a wild week...
Önska alla en underbar vecka.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Earnings 2
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Earnings 3
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earnings 4
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Earnings 5
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
earnings 6
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
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" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Jätte viktigt att lyssna på vad Donald Coxe säger och skriver.
Angående dollar
What we're seeing here is just the early stages of the next phase of the U.S. dollar devaluation," Mr. Coxe said in an interview. "What has not happened yet is the euro and the [Canadian] dollar have not reached the stage of gigantic pain in those markets and the only way in which the U.S. is going to get its trade deficit back below 5% of GDP is with real pain in Canada and the Eurozone and also by a move on the yen and the yen hasn't yet made its move."
Canadian dollar to reach US$1.10?
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As explained in his just-released October edition of Basic Points -- titled The Ghosts of Octobers Past -- Coxe laments the fact the U.S. federal reserve caved to Wall Street in its recent 50 beeps cut in interest rates.
Coxe cites fed easing; moves 5% bonds into equities
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# 14
Om länken försvinner
BMO Financial Group global portfolio strategist Donald Coxe is suggesting U.S. pension funds should add 5% to their equity mix at the expense of bonds. He recommends adding 3% to U.S. equities and 2% to Canadian/Australian equities.
As explained in his just-released October edition of Basic Points -- titled The Ghosts of Octobers Past -- Coxe laments the fact the U.S. federal reserve caved to Wall Street in its recent 50 beeps cut in interest rates.
Coxe writes that there is "no doubt" the Fed's cut "has vastly benefited a collection of hedge fund managers and investment bankers whose collective wealth was already in the hundreds of billions of dollars."
The next Coxe paragraph is worth framing: "The subprime and private equity excesses which created this global liquidity crisis originated in the misbehaviour of immoral and unconscionable people, many of whom happened to be very, very rich -- and were determined to regain whatever wealth market forces had drained from them when their overleveraging, reliance on models rather than markets, misrepresentations and -- in some cases -- fraud were revealed."
Coxe hits the nail on the head when he observes that the justification of "protecting poor homeowners" constitutes "mendacity on majestic scale."
He adds he had hoped fed chairman Ben Bernanke would "hang tough" but that "powerful pressures" to continue easing prompted his change to his recommended asset mix.
"If Bernanke heroically resists all these pressures, then the asset shift will have been in error."
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Fund sees move away from dollar-based commodities
But if investors started to believe that U.S. assets were overpriced, then confidence could quickly disappear and leave the United States on the verge on bankruptcy, Murrin said.
"A way to stimulate your economy is to let the currency go," he said, adding that this ploy could be dangerous as it could further fuel inflation in an environment of rising commodity prices.
Murrin thinks the commodity bull run could continue for another "20 years at least".
"What I think is alarming, is we're behaving as if we're at the end of the cycle," he said.
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video
Housing Bubble vs. Great Depression
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Key Earnings Reports
Temperaturen kommer att stiga kraftigt på Torsdag för det släpps 122 rapporter
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" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Varför inte följa den gyllene urgamla regeln:
"When in doubt stay out"
Nya tillfällen med TYDLIGA trender dyker alltid upp förr eller senare på börsen :-)
Mvh /B
Hjälp Oxford Univ. cancerforskning!
Hemsida
Gör någon glad!
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska bankgruppen Citigroup
redovisar ett resultat på 0:47 dollar per aktie för
kvarvarande verksamhet för tredje kvartalet 2007 (1:06).
Resultatet motsvarar en nedgång på 57 procent jämfört
med samma tidsperiod förra året.
Den 1 oktober vinstvarnade banken och spådde en nedgång
om 60 procent gentemot det tredje kvartalet 2006.
Resultatet inkluderar en positiv engångseffekt om 729
miljoner dollar, efter försäljningen av aktierna i Redecard.
Analytikernas snittprognos var ett resultat för
kvarvarande verksamhet på 0:44 dollar per aktie, enligt First
Calls prognossammanställning.
Omsättningen uppgick till 22,7 miljarder dollar (21,4).
Analytikerna förväntade sig i genomsnitt en omsättning på 21,7
miljarder dollar.
"Det här kvartalet var en besvikelse, även om man har
oroligheterna på kredit- respektive subprimemarknaden",
skriver bolagets vd, Charles Prince, i en kommentar i
rapporten.
Citigroup tar nedskrivningar på knappt 1,4 miljarder
dollar inom enheten Securities and Banking, för
finansieringsåtaganden med hög risk.
Banken tar även förluster i den egna handeln med
räntebärande värdepapper på 636 miljoner dollar, vilket är
något högre än de 600 miljoner dollar som nämndes i
vinstvarningen den 1 oktober. Förlusten är, enligt banken,
relaterad till hög volatilitet på kreditmarknaderna.
Vidare tas nedskrivningar på knappt 1,6 miljarder för
värdepapper relaterade till bostadslån med hög risk. Den 1
oktober skrev banken att den räknade med nedskrivningar på
runt 1,3 miljarder dollar för den typen av värdepapper.
Inom verksamheten Global Consumer ökade
kreditkostnaderna med 3,0 miljarder dollar på grund av det
försämrade kreditklimatet. Den 1 oktober skrev banken att
kreditkostnaderna ökat med cirka 2,6 miljarder dollar.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Affärsförhållandena för industrin i
New York-regionen förbättrades i oktober jämfört med månaden
före.
Federal Reserve New Yorks Empire State Manufacturing
Index steg till 28,8 från 14,7 i september.
Analytiker hade väntat en nedgång till 13,1 enligt
Bloomberg News enkät.
Index över nya order steg till 25 från 13,6.
Sysselsättningsindex ökade till 20,5 från 18,2. Prisindex steg
till 36,1 från 35,1.
Det framåtblickande indexet, sex månader, steg till 50,6
från 48,8./
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Bevaka Turkiet och Irak...
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Questions arise about Goldman's blowout quarter
Goldman's stock has gained 13% since its earnings came out, as investors have bought into the notion that the bank is a cut above its peers and is able to weather, and even profit from, tough market conditions.
But that view could get revised, now that it can be seen in the numbers that a large proportion of its third quarter profits were 'unrealized' - i.e. paper gains, and not hard cash payments from fully closed out trades - and came from financial instruments that Goldman values largely according to its own estimates.
"The opaqueness of Goldman's balance sheet makes us immediately question how they made money in the quarter," says Charles Peabody, analyst with Portales Partners.
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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska dollarn är
fortfarande övervärderad och ytterligare nedgångar i
dollarkursen är möjliga. Eurons växelkurs ligger däremot nära
jämviktsnivån.
Det sade avgående IMF-chefen Rodrigo Rato på måndagen,
enligt Thomson Financial News.
Han upprepade vidare att riskerna mot den globala
ekonomiska tillväxten har ökat, och att IMF ser en inbromsning
i USA:s ekonomi, men ingen recession
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Några chart
dow
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spx
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nasdaq 100
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russel
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Analysen kostar
the wave structure is complete
The wave structure is complete, yesterday's highs cannot be violated, the top is in. The S&P in particular thrust to the absolute maximum it could go if the pattern is what it appears to be - an ending diagonal. I suppose if this gets violated in the next few days, one should bet the farm, as the STU leaves no room for hedging. (For you bashers, which way you bet is up to you!) The type of decline expected could be minor - a wave iv with v to follow, or medium - a wave C in a triangle, or shockingly large - a wave C in a flat that should go lower than the August bottom. In any of these scenarios, the Dollar should *finally* attempt a rally.
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se bild
1. Alan Greenspan becomes Fed chief
2. Oct.19, 1987 crash
3. Iraq invades Kuwait
4. Yahoo! IPO
5. Dow hits 11,750.
6. Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks
7. Second Gulf War.
8. Ben Bernanke succeeds Greenspan
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup (C:Citigroup, Inc
financial officer Gary Crittenden said Monday in a conference call that the ongoing turmoil in the credit markets could hurt the bank's fourth quarter results. Earlier Monday, the bank said its third-quarter profit fell 57% after accounting for previously announced write-downs for bad loans and other credit issues, the nation's largest bank said Monday
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Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Time Warner Inc.'s AOL plans to cut 2,000 jobs, or 20 percent of its worldwide workforce, as the Internet division focuses on advertising sales to make up for subscriber losses.
The company will begin notifying employees tomorrow, spokeswoman Anne Bentley said in an interview today. About 1,200 of the eliminations will come from the U.S., she said.
Cost savings will allow AOL to invest in high-growth areas, Chief Executive Officer Randy Falco said today in a memo confirmed by Bentley. Last month, AOL announced plans to move its corporate headquarters to New York from Dulles, Virginia and set up a network to help advertisers buy online ads.
Second-quarter sales at AOL plunged 38 percent to $1.3 billion as the unit lost 1.1 million paying subscribers, New York-based Time Warner said in August.
Time Warner shares, down 13 percent this year before today, fell 13 cents to $18.85 at 11:30 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
det kanske börjar bli dags för en Short Squeeze?
..om det nu är det som saknas?
(BKX)
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
# 23
RÅVAROR: ORO KRING TURKIET OCH IRAK SKICKAR OLJAN ÖVER 85 USD (Direkt)
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Råoljepriset fortsatte mot skyn när
veckans golvhandel öppnade på New York Mercantile Exchange,
under tilltagande militär spänning kring gränsen mellan
Turkiet och den kurdiskdominerade norra delen av Irak.
De som hoppats på en nedgång fick också negativa nyheter
från de oljeproducerande ländernas kartell Opec, som meddelade
att oljeproduktionen i icke Opec-anslutna länder blir lägre än
vad som tidigare förutspåtts.
"Allt tänkbart går fel när det gäller oljemarknaden.
Turkiet viftar med vapnen, Irak lugnar sig inte, även Iran
vapenskramlar och lagren är små", säger Robert Ebel vid Center
for Strategic and International Studies i Washington.
På Nymex vid 18.30-tiden hade WTI-oljan med leverans i
november stigit 1:60 dollar, till 85:29 dollar per fat.
Samtidigt handlades Brentolja till 82:01 dollar per fat, upp
1:46 dollar.
På London Metal Exchange handlades basmetallerna åt
olika håll. Koppar kostade 8.170 dollar per ton, upp 105
dollar. Nickelpriset var upp 150 dollar, på 32.150 dollar per
ton. Zinken noterades med en uppgång med 23 dollar, på 3.148
dollar per ton.
Priset på aluminium låg vid samma tidpunkt på 2.494
dollar per ton, efter en tillbakagång med 11 dollar.
Guld har under dagen handlats på sina högsta prisnivåer
på 27 år. Avistapriset var 757:80 dollar dollar per uns, upp
8:70 dollar, eller 1,1 procent.
Den sjunkande dollarn och de stigande oljepriserna
bidrar till att göra guld attraktivt som en försäkring mot
inflation, skriver Bloomberg News.
"Oljepriset är rekordhögt, och när dollarn nu faller får
man receptet för en fortsatt uppgång för guldet", säger
handlaren Matt Zeman vid LaSalle Futures i Chicago till
Bloomberg./AK
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
mer från Donald Coxe...
U.S. appears to have launched into Plaza-style currency devaluation
- Meanwhile, Coxe said his insistence "that commodity stocks would outperform during the financial crisis has been vindicated to date." He asserted that commodity stocks have held up despite predictions of a coming U.S. inflation, because the prices of oil, copper, iron ore, steel and fertilizers "are, in effect, set by the new middle class of the Third World, particularly in China and India."
-Although the gold price is not far off its all-time high in dollars, Coxe explained that it hasn't been a big winner for companies and investors whose assets are denominated in other currencies. "Gold will not truly be in record terrain until it sets records in all major currencies."
"That day will come," Coxe declared, as "inflation will once again become a serious fear. At that point gold will solidly outperform all paper currencies."
....
The portfolio analyst explained that he feels futures prices are so far below spot prices for several reasons including:
1) The greatest investment opportunities come from asset classes where those who know it best love it least, because they have been disappointed most. "It is still true that many commodity producers believe Wall Street's prognostications that commodity prices must collapse. So they give Wall Street the commissions to sell forward."
2) Cheap financing: a new mine or oil field involves a huge capital investment. "Companies whose balance sheets are already fully committed can raise funds interest-free by selling forward."
Risk reduction: a company, which will have a major mine on stream in three years, may not want to assume the full price risk. It can hedge some of the early anticipated production and use it as security for capital financing.
3) Corporate focus: "a gold mining company that acquires another gold mine with substantial copper or zinc production may decide to hedge its base-metal exposure and lock in the contribution to per-ounce gold production cash costs."
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USA: FINANSDEPARTEMENTET VÄLKOMNAR FOND PÅ 80 MDR USD (Direkt
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Det amerikanska finansdepartementet
välkomnar den fond som satts upp av Citigroup, Bank of America
och JP Morgan för att hjälpa till att återupprätta
kreditmarknaden efter att lånekostnaderna stigit kraftigt i
spåren av krisen på den amerikanska subprime-marknaden.
"Finansdepartementet är nöjd med den privata sektorns
respons för att öka likviditeten på de korta
kreditmarknaderna. Detta förslag kommer att komplettera andra
lösningar som investerare och andra kan använda för att
tillhandahålla och utnyttja kapital för att stödja mer
effektiva marknader", skrev finansdepartementet, enligt
Bloomberg News.
Fonden, som kommer att ha tillgångar på runt 80
miljarder dollar, kommer att köpa tillgångar från "structured
investment vehicles", meddelade de tre bankerna i ett
gemensamt uttalande på måndagen
hmmmm
How then would a superconduit, or whatever you want to call this proposed entity, solve the basic problem? Apparently the sheer size and participation of multiple banks along with the Treasury is supposed to give investors confidence. In my opinion, part of what created the current problem was the perception that participants were too big and too many to fail. If the government won't let Citigroup fail, could it allow a superconduit to go down?
I am skeptical of any claims for a feel-good, this-will-solve-all-the-problems fix. The reality is that someone must absorb a huge capital loss. The question we should be asking from the point of view of public policy is, Who should that someone be?
My answer is: the shareholders of Citigroup.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell the most in a month after Citigroup Inc. said defaults will plague the financial industry for the rest of the year.
Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank, posted its steepest loss in almost seven weeks after Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden said late payments on home loans may worsen in the fourth quarter. Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also retreated. Eaton Corp., the world's second-biggest maker of hydraulic equipment, dropped after lowering its full-year profit forecast because of the weak U.S. housing market.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 15.24, or 1 percent, to 1,546.56 at 1:37 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 143.48, or 1 percent, 13,949.6. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 26.52, or 1 percent, to 2,779.16.
``For the Citigroups of the world, there's too much unknown that still has to work itself out,'' said Tim Hartzell, who helps manage about $2 billion as chief market strategist at Kanaly Trust Co. in Houston. ``It's not a good spot to be in right now for a consumer here in America.''
Citigroup's warning spurred speculation that the impact of mortgage losses won't be limited to the third quarter, when bank earnings probably fell the most since 2001. Consumer stocks including Coach Inc. posted the second-steepest drop in the S&P 500 after financial shares.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
# 0
1987 oktobers crash...
Vi har fått första offret Ericsson: ner -24,56% så länge
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Värdet på utländska investerares och
regeringars nettoköp av amerikanska tillgångar uppgick till
- 69,3 miljarder dollar i augusti, att jämföra med reviderade
19,5 miljarder dollar månaden före (19,2).
Det visar statistik från USA:s finansdepartement, enligt
Bloomberg News.
Analytiker hade väntat sig ett inflöde på 60,0 miljarder
dollar, enligt Bloomberg News prognosenkät. USA:s
utrikeshandel genererade ett underskott på 57,6 miljarder
dollar i augusti./
Utländska aktörers innehav av amerikanska statspapper
sjönk med 2,6 miljarder dollar, hypoteksobligationer
(government agency bonds) steg med 9,6 miljarder dollar och
företagsobligationer sjönk med 1,2 miljarder dollar. Innehav
av aktier sjönk samtidigt med 40,6 miljarder dollar.
Japan minskade sina innehav av amerikanska statspapper
med 24,8 miljarder dollar i augusti medan Kina minskade
innehaven med 8,8 miljarder dollar.
Amerikanska köp av utländska tillgångar ökade samtidigt
med 34,5 miljarder dollar netto.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Stämningsläget bland amerikanska
husbyggare sjönk i oktober.
Det framgår av National Association of Homebuilders,
NAHB, och Wells Fargos index över förtroendet bland de
amerikanska husbyggnadsföretagen.
Indexet sjönk till 18 i oktober, från 20 månaden före.
Enligt Bloomberg News enkät väntade analytiker ett index på
19.
Ett index över 50 innebär att byggföretagen ser ljust på
framtidsutsikterna./
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
IBM : det blev 1,68 mot väntat 1,67
IBM Q3 gross margin 41.3% vs 42%
aktien ner 0,93 %
Intel stiger nu med 2,39 % bättre än väntat
det blev 0,31 mot 0,30 väntt
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Fem av 12 regionala Federal Reserve-
styrelser var emot centralbankens beslut att sänka diskontot
med 50 punkter förra månaden.
Det rapporterar Bloomberg News.
Fyra distrikt röstade för att sänka diskontoräntan med
endast en kvarts procentenhet i början av september, medan
Philadelphia Fed inte ville se någon sänkning alls, visade
protokollet som publicerades i Washington på tisdagskvällen.
Röstningsmönstret bland de regionala Fed-distrikten
antyder att centralbankstjänstemännen var långt ifrån överens
när de diskuterade sin sänkning av Fed fundsräntan med en halv
procentenhet den 18 september.
Feds räntekommitté, Fomc, röstade enhälligt för att
sänka styrräntan till 4,75 procent förra månaden och
motiverade detta med oro för att recessionen på husmarknaden
skulle påverka hela ekonomin.
Fed-styrelserna i Cleveland, New York, St Louis, Boston,
Minneapolis, Kansas City och San Fransisco röstade för att
diskontot skulle sänkas med en halv procentenhet, vilket
guvernörerna godkände.
Bankstyrelserna i Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago och Dallas
avvek från majoriteten och ville de 25 punkters sänkning.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Många begravda hundar som tyvärr vi inte vet mycket om och eftersom vi inte vet vilka negativa nyheter som kommer att dyka upp är det bäst att hålla sig från köpknappen...
Man har inget att förlora vänta tills stormen är över... för att Ericsson vinstvarning tillhör det ovanliga obehagliga nyheter och vi lär uppleva fler obehagliga nyheter närmaste rapportperioden...
Ni redan vet
Sept home starts, permits fall to 14-year lows
Wednesday October 17, 8:38 am ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home construction starts fell 10.2 percent in September to their lowest level in more than 14 years while building permit activity, a sign of future construction plans, also dropped to a level not seen since mid-1993, a government report on Wednesday showed.
The Commerce Department said housing starts set an annual pace of 1.191 million units in September, lower than the 1.285 million units expected by economists. It was the lowest pace for housing starts since the March 1993 rate of 1.083 million units.
Building permits fell 7.3 percent, the sharpest decline since January 1995, to an annual rate of 1.226 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast September permits at 1.298 million after the 1.322 million rate of August.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Dot-com fever stirs sense of déjà vu
Internet companies, he added, "are buying users instead of revenue and profitability
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Japan and China lead flight from the dollar
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Sämsta grupper sedan fed sänkte räntan den 17 september.
Vilket betyder att räntan sänktes för hjälpa dessa sektorer men förgäves:-))
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
# 45
SPX
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spx 15 Minuter
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NDX
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SOX
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RUT 2000
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"One of the negative catalysts on the market this week is the rising price per barrel of crude oil; for the first time in the better part of a year we had a significant increase in commodity prices that is not tied to supply and demand, but geopolitical concerns," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
Wall Street's about-face coincided with another record rise in crude-oil futures as well as comments by President Bush, who told a White House news conference that the United States is trying to discourage Turkey from sending troops into Iraq.
"Unfortunately this particular leader of the free world has never made the market go up by talking," said Hogan.
Up about 100 points early on, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
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Organic earnings growth and earnings from our acquisitions will continue to generate capital for the company. We anticipate, however, no further buybacks until we have reached our targeted capital ratios," CEO Gary Crittenden said on a conference call with analysts following Citi's earnings report.
Big banks saying 'bye bye' to buybacks
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Growth has decelerated over past 6 weeks: Fed's Beige Book
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. economic activity has slowed over the six weeks, according to the latest Beige Book report on current economic conditions released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Anecdotal reports from the 12 Fed districts "suggest economic activity continued to expand in all districts in September and early October but the pace of growth decelerated since August," the report concluded. Five districts: Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond and San Francisco reported slower rate of growth. The other seven districts reported growth similar to the last report in early September. Many contacts were uncertain and wary about the impact of the debt crisis. Banks were already tighening lending standards. Housing continued to weaken
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Fed's Beige Book Says Economic Growth Has Slowed Since August
reports were uneven and suggest growth was slower in September and early October than in August
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# 23
Understanding the Kurdish effect
The 600-mile pipeline's vulnerability is well known. Few barrels of crude have trickled through it over the past four years. Prior to that, it was idled by international trade embargoes aimed at cutting off the flow of petrodollars Saddam Hussein relied on to fund his regime.
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SPX: Den här gillar du nog, insideraffärer i Countrywide Financials: http://206.222.29.162/history/company.jsp?company=cfc
Skönt att ledningen verkligen tror på sitt bolag. Obs, missa inte kolumnen längst till vänster som visar om det är Köp eller Sälj :)
Fed's Beige Book
"Contacts in a number of industries indicated a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty about the outlook for economic activity," the survey found.
"At firms without direct ties to real estate and construction, contacts were still wary that credit tightening and slowing construction might slow activity in their industry," the report said.
Some reported cautious optimism because there was little evidence of a spillover from housing into other sectors at this time.
The debt crisis, which gained force in early August, was having a dampening impact on growth, the survey found. Banks, whose balance sheets are under pressure from their investment with derivatives based on subprime mortgages and asset-backed commercial paper, have responded by tightening credit standards, including for consumers and all types of real estate.
Home sales continued to fall.
"In some instances, buyers could no longer secure financing or were unable to sell their current homes," the survey said.
Retail sales were weaker and the store owners were worried about the outlook.
"There appeared to be a high level of uncertainty about the outlook for retail sales," and shops in some regions were reducing inventory, the survey said.
"Reports suggested developers are becoming more cautious - in some cases shelving or canceling projects," the survey said.
Job growth eased in some regions, the report said.
Competitive pressures are keeping a lid on prices, although prices for some inputs are rising
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The weekly figures from Investors Intelligence
The percent bullish came in at 62.0 (versus 60.2 last week)
The percent bearish registered 19.6 (versus 21.5 last week)...
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# 59
Jag har faktiskt läst den men glömde skriva om det. Och du har rätt " jag gillade den:-))
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Countrywide Chief Exercises Options
Thursday October 11, 12:49 pm ET
Countrywide Financial Chairman and CEO Angelo Mozilo Exercises Options for 139,918 Shares
NEW YORK (AP) -- The chairman and chief executive of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Inc. exercised options for 139,918 shares of common stock, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
In a Form 4 filed with the SEC Wednesday, Angelo R. Mozilo reported he exercised the options on Wednesday for $9.94 apiece, then sold all 139,918 shares on the same day for $18.74 apiece.
The stock sale was conducted under a prearranged 10b5-1 trading plan which allows a company insider to set up a program in advance for such transactions and proceed with them even if he or she comes into possession of material non-public information.
Insiders file Form 4s with the SEC to report transactions in their companies' shares. Open market purchases and sales must be reported within two business days of the transaction.
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# 0
What a wild week och det är inte slut än :-))
Bank of America Earnings Drop on Loan Writedowns
``The next couple of quarters will be messy for Bank of America,'' said Andrew Seibert, a fund manager at Pittsburgh- based Stewart Capital Advisors, which oversees $950 million and owns Bank of America shares. ``You are only seeing the beginning. The banks will be putting up a lot of money for reserves.''
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# 59 och 64
SEC probes Countrywide CEO's stock sales
The Securities and Exchange Commission has opened an informal investigation into stock sales made by the chief executive of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp., according to a report published Wednesday.
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After '87, today's fear is the mini-crash
20 years after the Dow plunged 22% in a day, Wall Streeters aren't too worried about a repeat. But what about a smaller version of that disaster?
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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) De amerikanska börserna backar i
torsdagens tidiga handel, sedan Bank of America redovisat en
större vinstnedgång än väntat för tredje kvartalet.
"Bank of America har så varierad verksamhet att det
berör hela landets ekonomi. Det faktum att bolaget gjorde en
så stor miss väcker oro för att kreditproblemen, avmattningen
inom bolån och effekterna för bostäder är större än vad folk
har trott", säger Kevin Divney, placerare vid Putnam
Investments i Boston, till Bloomberg News.
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More Mortgage Hits to Earnings
PMI Group Inc., the second-largest U.S. mortgage insurer, estimated a third-quarter loss of $1.05 a share, as borrowers' ability to repay their home loans ``significantly worsened'' in September. The company fell as much as 7.3 percent in New York trading.
The cost to bail out lenders is expected to increase fivefold from the same period a year earlier to about $350 million, the Walnut Creek, California-based insurer said in a statement today. PMI also withdrew its earnings forecasts for the year.
Rival MGIC Investment Corp., the largest mortgage insurer, yesterday posted its first quarterly loss since it went public in 1991. The Milwaukee-based company said it won't be profitable in 2008 as foreclosures increase from a record and the housing market worsens in parts of California and Florida.
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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Philadelphia Federal Reserves
månatliga index visar på en minskad ekonomisk aktivitet i
näringslivet i oktober, jämfört med månaden före.
Indexet sjönk till 6,8 från oreviderade 10,9 månaden
före. Analytikerna hade räknat med ett index på 7,0 enligt
Bloomberg News snittprognos.
Prisindex steg till 40,3 från 23,1 månaden före.
Index över nya order sjönk till 2,7 från 15,1 månaden
före.
Sysselsättningsindex steg till 12,6 från 7,5 förra
månaden.
Den regionala centralbanken ställer varje månad ett
antal frågor om ekonomin till 150 producenter i regionen.
Svaren vägs sedan samman i ett antal index./
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What Inflation?
They are losing market share in a slowing market, which is the worst of all worlds
Hershey Co., the largest U.S. candy maker, said third-quarter profit plunged 66 percent and sales unexpectedly fell as it lost market share and dairy costs rose.
.....
Nonfat dry milk prices rose 20 percent from the first quarter and are more than double what they were a year ago, according to Katzman. He is one of 15 analysts who have a ``hold'' rating on the stock. Three others recommend buying Hershey, and two say ``sell.''
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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Dollarn, som nu handlas på sin lägsta
nivå på 15 år, riskerar att slå mot tredjekvartalsvinsterna i
många svenska börsbolag, de som har en stor del av sin
försäljning i dollar medan resultatet redovisas i kronor eller
euro. Särskilt bolag inom skogs- och verkstadsindustri väntas
påverkas negativt.
Det skriver Dagens Industri i fredagens tidning.
Det finns risk att torsdagens vinstvarning från Stora
Enso bara är början, skriver tidningen, som bland annat har
talat med en rad aktieanalytiker.
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what a week! # 0
Wal-Mart (WMT) is cutting prices on 15,000 more items this week ? 20% more than last year ? and plans to slash more prices in coming days to boost sales during the holiday season.
The world's biggest retailer cut prices earlier this month on some of the hottest holiday toys, hard-to-resist deals that could help counter concerns about toy safety.
"Discounting is starting early and often this year," says retail strategist John Champion of global consulting firm Kurt Salmon Associates. "Wal-Mart is anxious about the Christmas season and trying to get an early jump with the consumers. Other retailers are going to follow suit."
The latest cuts come as consumers face continued economic pressure from a shaky real estate market and high energy costs, making it an especially good move for Wal-Mart, says Phil Rist, executive vice president at consumer insights firm BIGresearch.
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Lite statistik
October 19th has been an up day 73% of the time since the '87 Crash.
Inte idag... så länge:-))
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
The worst U.S. housing recession in more than a decade will lead to a 12 percent decline in North American machinery and engine sales this year, Caterpillar said.
Caterpillar also projected today the U.S. economy will grow 1.5 percent next year, down from the 2 percent gain it forecasts for 2007. The slowdown will lead the Federal Reserve to further reduce interest rates by another 25 basis points this year and reduce rates further in 2008, Caterpillar predicted.
mer här
Caterpillar Cuts Forecast; Profit Misses Estimates
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# 0
Dow suffers a 370-point dive 20 years after 1987's Black Monday
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