wall of worry

Favortibloggen? 

Mvh sq52trader

yes! har tjatat om den endel .. så jag trodde alla hajjade vad jag menade  :) 

Läser den först av allt varje morgon. Mycket bra. 

Mvh PeterPG

#0 Ja contrarian :-) 

Mvh Silicon Valley

Den här undersökningen visar på motsatsen!

Investors Intelligence

Advisors Sentiment
24 October 2007 By Mike Burke & John Gray

Overview
Advisors certainly reacted to the market weakness last week. The bulls retreated to 56.5% after just achieving a 34-month high the previous week at 62.0%. Fridays big market drop on the 20th anniversary of the 1987 crash contributed to the worries expressed by the newsletter writers.

The bears increased to 22.9% from 19.6%. That ends six consecutive weeks of falling values from their August levels. Following the sell-off from the July 19 index highs, the bears reached 37.4% and held there for three weeks. That was a very high level of scepticism and was one of the factors leading to the strongly bullish outlook we adopted at the end of that month.

The advisors calling for a correction moved up to 20.6%, from 18.4%. This group is long term bullish but projects a short term decline, which they expect will offer new buying opportunities.

Indexes fell 3-4% last week but still remain solidly in the black for 2007. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8.8% for the year to date, while the S&P 500 is ahead by 6.2% and the NASDAQ Composite is better by 14.0%. The NASDAQ has been leading the other averages in performance and we think that will continue for a while, boosted by technology shares.

Sentiment is now bearish. Last week?s readings equaled the 60% - 20 % bears associated with market tops. We noted that it didn?t forecast an immediate market collapse, even though there was poor action after the release of that data. It still calls for increased caution and we trimmed our equity exposure. Some short term technical indicators quickly fell to oversold territory but that is not yet broadly shown.

The difference between the bulls and bears contracted to 33.6%, from last week?s very high reading at 42.4%. That level had the spread indicator also at negative levels. It showed a dramatic jump from nine weeks ago when it was just 3.2%. That was the smallest spread since June 2006. The peak difference exceeded the last high reading at 35.9%, shown just as the averages set their July records. A spread in the 35-40% is historically a cause for major concern and that has occurred. A further narrowing below 30% would resume neutral status. A bull-bear difference that narrows to around 15% (or less) and then expands is giving a buy. That was the late August signal, which was similar to those previously shown in June 2006 [0% difference] and again on 14-March-2007 [16%]. Those are the last three lows on the line chart.

Mvh traction

..

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

# 0

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

#7 enligt grafen så har börsen fortsatt rakt upp ;)

Ska det bli så igen?

Vh/Z 

Men

NYSE short interest started hitting eye-popping highs in June and July accurately predicting a problem in the equity market well before the eventual dramatic sell off. Usually high short interest is a bullish sign of investor fear and is favorable towards stocks from a contrarian point of view. But last summer it pointed to a problem. The chart shows that short interest has now shot well past the prior highs of the summer.

Vad betyder det?

Jag vet inte men jag skulle inte vara Contrarian när fundamenta börjar vika...

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970