USA vecka 44

Statistik 2

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Earnings 1

Earnings season remains in full swing, with a plethora of reporters next week.

Humana (HUM), Northwest Airlines (NWA), and Verizon (VZ) kick off the week Monday. Tuesday remains vigorous, with Procter & Gamble (PG), Sirius Satellite (SIRI), and U.S. Steel (X) reporting.

Wednesday will feature reports from Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), Garmin (GRMN), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS), among others. Things don't slow down for

Thursday, as Marathon Oil (MRO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Sprint Nextel (S), and Crocs (CROX) lead reporters.

Friday slows down just a bit, as Chevron (CVX), Duke Energy (DUK), and Viacom (VIA.B) headline earnings news.

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3

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4

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5

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7

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8

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9 

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earnings 10 

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 11

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12 

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Mer earning på tisdag:-))

Djia

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SPX

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Nasdaq

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RUT

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# 0

Dollar ingen vacker syn

Fed kan göra nåt

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Gold trust shares

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Varför orolig för denna marknad.

Transport vs SPX

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MCSI Emerging market vs SPX

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Nasdaq new highs new lows.

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Nasdaq advance decline.

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Det positiva

Leaders...

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leader n 2

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n 3

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leader

4 

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Leader 5

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leader 6

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Leader 7

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leader 8

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How Bad Will the Next Recession Be?

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Mexico Central Bank Unexpectedly Raises Rate to 7.50%  

The five-member board, led by Governor Guillermo Ortiz, lifted the benchmark rate a quarter percentage point to 7.50 percent, surprising 22 of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The peso climbed to a three-month high.

Kom Fed att överaska marknaden?

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Subprime-Mortgage Defaults Rose Last Month, ABX Data Suggests

Prepayments on mortgages also slowed, suggesting it's more difficult for borrowers to sell their homes or refinance out of adjustable-rate loans amid a ``shutdown'' of the subprime market, the New York-based UBS analysts led by Thomas Zimmerman wrote.

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Another "Realistic" View of the Housing Market

"The mortgage crisis is neither wholly contained nor likely to abate in the near future," said Jakabovics. "Default and foreclosure loom ever more menacingly as borrowers are unable to find a reasonable payment option and unable to sell their homes."

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Rethinking the 'credit culture'

Credit is good. It needs to do good," said Udo Reifner, a professor of law and economics at the University of Hamburg. "But credit needs to be supervised."

....................................

Video

Its Credit and its Crunchy

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Marc Faber

"Each time you bail out, it becomes bigger and bigger, and the credit problems become much, much larger," said Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. The Fed "feeds its customers with booze, and when they get totally drunk and are about to fall off their chairs, the bartender gives them more booze to keep them going. One day, it will lead to the ultimate breakdown."

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UBS Re-confirms Q3 Pre-tax Loss In Range Of CHF 600 -CHF 800 Mln - Quick Facts

UBS:On Monday reconfirmed its third quarter pre-tax loss in range of CHF 600 -CHF 800 million. The company also reported that fourth quarter has started with good results from all businesses, including the Investment Bank.
But, UBS noted that the FICC business remains exposed to further deterioration in the US housing and mortgage markets as well as rating downgrades for mortgage-related securities. So the company said that it is not assuming that the quarter will continue as positively as it has begun, or that the current difficulties will be resolved in the short term.

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The Trend Trader for Monday, Oct. 29

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Investors such as Jim Rogers, too. ``It's the official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency,'' Rogers, a former partner of George Soros and chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said in Amsterdam last week.

Not that the U.S. has enough currency reserves, $44 billion, to halt a dollar crash. The real stockpiles are in Asia. China has $1.4 trillion of reserves, followed by Japan with $923 billion, Taiwan with $263 billion, South Korea with $257 billion and India with $249 billion. Were Asians to dump dollars, the U.S.'s reserve-currency status would be in jeopardy.

``You can keep your dollars.''

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the Steel industry går bra...

charten säger att vi inte kommer att se USA hamna in recession eller?

Det är alla fall nåt man måste bevaka...

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The ECRI economic index stabilized several weeks ago at a low level. This index predicts the economy 4-6 months out, and it continues to indicate a slow, but still growing economy. The future inflation gauge is predicting low levels of inflation over the period.

a recession is not likely

eller

ECRI chief sees no sign of US recession

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WHO'S THE FED CHAIRMAN TALKING WITH NOW 

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# 40

Amerikanska US Steel redovisar ett
nettoresultat på 2:50 dollar per aktie för det tredje
kvartalet (3:59).

Väntat var ett resultat på 2:63 dollar per aktie, enligt
First Call.

Försäljningen uppgick till 4,35 miljarder dollar (4,1).
Analytikerna hade väntat sig 4,47 miljarder dollar./AK-GV

Nyhetsbyrån Direkt

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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska konsumentvarugruppen
Procter & Gamble redovisar ett resultat på 0:90 dollar per
aktie (0:79) exklusive engångsposter för räkenskapsårets
första kvartal.

Analytikernas snittprognos låg på 0:89 dollar per aktie
enligt First Calls prognossammanställning.

Försäljningen uppgick till 20,2 miljarder (18,8). Väntat
var en försäljning på 20,3 miljarder enligt Bloomberg News
prognossammanställning.

Vinsten per aktie beräknas hamna på 0:95-0:97 under det
andra kvartalet. Väntat innan rapporten släpptes var en vinst
om 0:96 dollar per aktie.

Under det andra kvartalet väntas den organiska
försäljningstillväxten öka med 4-6 procent.

För hela räkenskapsåret 2008, som startade i juli 2007,
förväntar sig Procter & Gamble ett resultat i intervallet
3:46-3:49 dollar per aktie, från tidigare prognos på 3:44-3:47
dollar per aktie.

Analytikernas förväntningar inför rapporten låg på en
vinst om 3:47 dollar per aktie.

För helåret 2008 spår bolaget en organisk
försäljningstillväxt in intervallet 4-6 procent

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Shiller Home Prices Fell 4.4% in August

``The fall in home prices is showing no real signs of a slowdown or turnaround,'' said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, in a statement. ``There is really no positive news in today's report.''

...

``Time has proven that no one can be sure when this particular downturn will end or begin to show signs of stabilization,'' Chief Executive Officer Richard Dugas said on a conference call. ``Since we are not sure how long this environment will stay this bad, Pulte plans to be prepared for the worst.''

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# 45 pdf

hela rapporten:-))

the 21st consecutive month of decelerating returns. 

Only two metro areas - Denver and Detroit - showed improvement in their annual returns and even those were reports of slightly less negative numbers."

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October blev en bra månad för en del sektorer och index:-))

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Rogers Bets Against U.S. Investment Banks, Housing

Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Hedge Fund with billionaire George Soros, boosted his bets against U.S. securities firms because of their salary ``excesses'' and money-losing investments.

Rogers said he increased his year-old short positions in the past six weeks in U.S. investment banks, using exchange-traded funds and bets against individual companies he declined to name. Stocks in the industry, which pays too much in bonuses, may fall as much as 70 percent in a bear market, he said.

``You see 29-year-olds on Wall Street making $10 million to $20 million a year, and they think it's normal,'' Rogers, 65, said in an interview in London today. ``There have been lots of excesses,'' said Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc.

The top five U.S. securities firms will probably earn a combined $29.3 billion this year, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, breaking a three-year record streak after Merrill Lynch & Co. reported a $2.2 billion third-quarter loss. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. earned $30.7 billion last year, three times more than their profit in 2002.

Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's most-profitable securities firm, said Sept. 20 that it set aside $16.9 billion to pay salaries, benefits and bonuses in the first nine months of the year, topping the record amount for all of last year.

A month later, Merrill Lynch reported its biggest quarterly loss amid $8.4 billion of writedowns for subprime mortgages, asset-backed bonds and bad loans. The 12-member AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer Index has fallen 13 percent since the start of June, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was little changed.

``Who knows how bad the balance sheets are,'' Rogers said. ``They took on gigantic amounts of bad paper.''....

Rogers said he made the investments using his own money. He declined to say how much he oversees.

The slump in the U.S. housing market ``still has a long way to go'' before recovering, he said. ``Market excesses don't clear themselves out in just four or five months; they take years.''

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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Antalet varsel om uppsägning i USA
uppgick till 63.114 i oktober, enligt en undersökning från
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, rapporterar Bloomberg News.

Det innebär en nedgång från 71.739 i september, och en
nedgång med 8,8 procent jämfört med motsvarande månad 2006.
Eftersom statistiken inte är säsongsjusterad kan jämförelsen
med motsvarande månad föregående år vara mer relevant.

Undersökningen omfattar planerade varsel, inte
genomförda uppsägningar./

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Helt stabilt verkar det ju inte vara...

"The Federal Reserve pumped $41 billion into the U.S. financial system Thursday, the largest cash infusion since September 2001, to help companies get through a credit crunch.
The action comes one day after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and all but one of his central bank colleagues voted to slice a key interest rate for the second time in six weeks to protect the economy from the ill effects of collapse in the housing market, aggravated by the credit troubles."

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071101/fed_markets.html

Bra summering hos finansblogg:

"Ugly 360?????Dålig ISM, Citi har kanske ett $30bn svart hål som måste fyllas, SEC ska undersöka Goldman vad gäller deras insights i subprime, SEC ska även undersöka Merrill vad gäller information om nedskrivningar, rykten om att UBS ska annonsera $8bn i mer nedskrivningar, färska 07 lows i banksektorn, Exxon hade det största kvartalstappet i earnings på 12 kvartal, US home foreclosures dubblades i Q3, USAs tredje största mortage insurer förlorar nästan 10 gånger mer än vad analytikerna trodde, Chrysler sparkar 10,000, Fed har avfyrat sin sista kula. Blodrött på skärmen. Russel2000 åkte på 4%. Bankindex ned över 5%. S&P500 bröt en upptrend. Melt-down efter onsdagens melt-up. Den ostoppbara haussen körde rakt in i bergväggen. Fortsatt stökigt och fortsatt rangebound med andra ord." 

How hard is it to pump 41billion dollar?

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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Paul De Grauwe, professor of economics at the University of Leuven, makes a persuasive and succinct case as to why central banks need to combat asset bubbles. Reading his argument, one might even wonder why the topic is controversial.

Central banks should prick asset bubbles

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