USA vecka 45
I can't tell you how it came to take me so many years to learn that instead of placing piking bets on what the next few quotations were going to be, my game was to anticipate what was going to happen in a big way." -- Jesse Livermore
Vecka 41 skrev jag följande " Jag tar ett ex... jag är nästan säkert att S&P 500 skall mot 1600 men nånstans i min själ skriker nån att vi kommer att rasa ordentligt ´vilken dag som helst innan oktober är slut...
När jag känner att sådant känsla som jag tyvärr inte kan bekämpa,,, vad ska jag göra. Jag känner mig fast kedjat vid denna tanke att jag inte längre känner att jag kan agera på nåt annat än att jag låter tanken växa med att hitta ett objektiv svar för denna känsla. Denna känsla föddes när Fed sänkte räntan med 50 punkter...
Känslan har blivit starkare och starkare speciellt när jag ser hur olika index beter sig. En del index lyckas notera nya toppnoteringar andra inte! hur uppgångar sker under låga volymer men nedgången under höga (vecka41)( negativa divergenser) Dollars fall gör mig mycket orolig ?Vecka 44 skrev jag följande "Stay cash" och bevaka MA 200? vilket fortfarande gäller.
För denna vecka så har lägget inte förbättrats? men försämrats. Inget tyder på att THE CREDIT CRUNCH kaoset är över men väl mer negativa nyheter att vänta? Och det finns många marknader som står på spel? Det är ett gigantiskt problem där det inte finns nån som vet hur gigantiskt det är? Att försöka förneka eller minska kraften av denna problematik är oansvarligt tycker jag ?
Bear Stearns? hedge funds startade karusellen och jag tror inte att alla kort ligger på bordet för att uppleva " the last Dance "
Bill Gross Novembers kommentar 2007 läser man följande " Bernanke must do some heavy lifting as opposed to the light housework required of Alan Greenspan in 1998. An increasingly recessionary looking U.S. economy will likely require 1% real short rates and 3½% Fed Funds in order to stabilize a potential growth contraction in lending not witnessed since the early 1970s or, to be honest, Roosevelt?s depressionary 1930s. We can only hope that Bernanke, Paulson, and their cohorts recognize the danger and that the music keeps playing with the lights still turned on.
Fed sänkte räntan med 0,25 % vilket var väntat. Marknaden sålde dagen efter när man insåg att Fed inte har några planer på att sänka igen samt dåliga nyheter från finans världen. Olja fortsätter stiga (96 dollar) nästa mål är väl enligt en del $100 och $150 enligt en grupp investerare. enligt guld över $ 800 ? Jim Sinclair skrev igår att guldet kommer att stiga mot först $1050 och sedan nivåer runt $1650 dollar.
" This is a time to be conservative, not adventurous. Gold is going to range trade wildly, but it is as I see it targeted here and now for $1,050.
My greatest concern is that my longstanding price objective of $1,650 might be much too low an estimate".
Och jag vet att många skriver att toppen är nådd men "With oil at almost $96 per barrel and gold at $806 per ounce, it's hard to imagine that prices could go even higher, but that's the same thing that many people were thinking a couple weeks ago. Given what's gone on over the last few months, current prices are starting to feel almost normal now?
Vill också att man inte försöker använda begreppet " CONTRARIAN " hur som helst "
Contrarian-based investors, want to see skepticism toward an outperforming stock or to see optimism toward an underperformer. Too much optimism is a sign that nearly everyone who wants to invest in a particular stock already has. Just because a stock sees substantial optimism doesn't mean that I will blindly short that particular security; I need to see some negative price action or a major catalyst for a downside move in order to pull the trigger in most cases. Other indicators to use to measure overall sentiment include short interest, magazine cover stories, media comments, and analyst ratings.
Bill Gross tror på en mer räntesänkning från Fed andra inte men Stigande inflation oroar. Fallande dollar, stigande priser på mat och energi liknande produkter kommer att kommer att göra det svårt för fed att sänka räntan. Det är stigande kostnader som oroar mest för det betyder att konsumenterna måste stå för notan.
Detta måste bevakas noga, Att bevaka " the yield on the Treasury's 10-year note är en dem lösningar. Bond market sees Fed's rate-cut as inflationary, Seiver says "The bottom line, for Seiver: The bond market is losing confidence in the Fed's credentials as an inflation fighter. " This is not good news, of course, no matter how you look at it. One particularly depressing prospect that Seiver says has now become more likely is that the Fed will have to raise short-term rates in the near future. That's because, he said, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is well aware of how difficult it is to regain the markets' trust once it is lost.
Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist with BMO Financial Group. skriver "The worry to Canadians is that all sorts of aspects of the economy can suddenly get in trouble at once because of the failure of the financial system to flow properly." If central banks are forced to cut interest rates drastically to prevent a system-wide collapse, that will only step up inflation even more.
Och ni kommer väl ihåg när jag förre veckan skrev om vad ECRI tror om den amerikanska ekonomin? Lägget har tyvärr förändrats.
The forward looking ECRI economic index ticked lower this week and is just barely in the zone pointing to growth. It forecasts that growth is slowing considerably. Some bad news is that they have removed their statement that no recession is in sight despite the slow growth. They are also forecasting slowing growth in Europe while at the same time the Eurozone inflation gauge is at a seven year high putting the central bank in a bind. They think the slowdown there may be worse than in the US. They recommend defensive positioning in equities holding consumer staples and utilities. The ECRI future US inflation gauge is still predicting low levels of inflation over the next 4-6 month period.
Det som kan kommer att drabba negativt Canada kommer att drabba också Sverige för jag ser att Sverige är beroende av utvecklingen i USA. Donald Coxe Skriver " The signs are troubling. Much of the gain in consumer spending in recent years was due to Americans borrowing against the rising values of their homes. Now that home prices are falling hard, the outlook for the economy isn't good. The U.S. Federal Reserve this week signalled it is reluctant to cut rates any further. How much a U.S. recession slows global demand isn't known, but a weak U.S. will affect Canada given our extensive economic relationship and proximity. The longer-term outlook is bleak, if you believe former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who has said the Fed will have to raise interest rates to more than 10% to head off inflation in coming years. How would that affect Canada? "It's too grim to contemplate," Mr. Coxe says.
Don't let that stop you from having fun on your next (shopping) trip to the U.S. But treat it like a party, and remember, parties weren't meant to last. Avslutar Donald Coxe.
A quote from CNBC "We are all sitting in the living room while the kitchen is on fire!"
Skaffa er en strategi för att begränsa era förluster?
Jag kan också nämna att en rotation är nära enligt en del investerare som t:ex sälja teknik aktier och köpa finans aktier? jag skulle vänta? för några index har hamnat i Bear fällan och så länge dem inte lyckas övertyga världen på att den finansiella krisen är över kommer nedgången att fortsätta. Äpplen från trädet har börjat falla och vi lär se mer fallande frukter?
Önskar alla en trevlig vecka.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Nästa veckas statistik
The economic calendar starts off fairly slow this week, with the ISM Services reporting Monday. The agenda doesn't resume again until Wednesday, when wholesale inventories, consumer credit, and the usual crude inventories report. Thursday is rather lethargic, with initial jobless claims the lone report, while Friday ends the week fairly robust, with the revelation of the trade balance and import/export prices, amongst others.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Level 3 storm about to hit Wall Street
There's a mystery on Wall Street. Merrill Lynch wrote off $8.4 billion in its subprime mortgage business, a figure revised up from $4.9 billion, yet Goldman Sachs reported an excellent quarter and didn't feel the need for any write-offs. The real secret of the difference is likely to be in the details of their accounting, and in particular in the murky world, shortly to be revealed, of their "Level 3" asset portfolios.
,,,
Bernanke: Don't take me for granted, boys
There are worse things I could do,
Than go with a boy or two.
Even though the neighborhood thinks I'm trashy,
And no good,
I suppose it could be true,
But there are worse things I could do.
I could flirt with all the guys,
Smile at them and bat my eyes.
Press against them when we dance,
Make them think they stand a chance,
Then refuse to see it through.
That's a thing I'd never do.
...
China's Fuel Price Move Forced by Oil, JPMorgan Says
China unexpectedly increased fuel prices by as much as 10 percent effective today in what the government said was an ``urgent step'' to help the nation's oil refiners cover rising costs as crude touched records above $96 a barrel. The country is the world's second-biggest energy consumer.
``It's a prudent measure -- to let businesses and consumers face the real price of oil,'' said David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics in Singapore. ``China's probably the biggest source of pressure on global oil prices, because of its surge in demand.''
...
Gold Tops $800 on Investor Demand for Haven From U.S. Assets
``There are lingering issues with this credit fallout,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla, gold trader and president of Hudson River Futures in New York. ``Investors are looking to gold as a safe haven.''
``There are lingering issues with this credit fallout,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla, gold trader and president of Hudson River Futures in New York. ``Investors are looking to gold as a safe haven.''
:-))
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Tack för trevlig söndagsläsning.......mvh
# 4
Tusen tack
# 0
texter jag läst under helgen om ni vill och har tid:-))
Sedan lägg märke till nåt. Banker sänker varandra från köp till sälj eller minska... kan inte banker själva skrivaen rekommendation om egna banker för dem har mer koll än andra... eller?
"THIS time it's different" are the four most expensive words in the English language, runs a saying among bankers."
Jepp "THIS time it's different"
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
If credit is becoming harder to come by, if spreads are widening, if growth is slowing, then it seems to me the leadership is about to change. The same strategies that led when the global economy was emerging from fears of deflation and entering a period of accelerating growth and synchronized recovery are very low probability bets to lead if the global economy is peaking, the US is slowing appreciably, and credit spreads are widening, not narrowing.
Where will the new leadership come from? The same place it usually does: the old laggards. I think the new leadership will be US, large-cap, dollar-based, and grow to encompass what no one wants to own today, especially financials and consumer. I also think so-called growth stocks will continue to do fine. When growth becomes scarcer and the discount rate becomes lower, growth becomes more valuable.
Legg Mason Value Trust Releases Letter to Shareholders
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MER
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Mycket välskrivet och tänkvärt.
Mvh Inveliten
För att bli InveStor måste man först ha varit InveLiten :-)
# 8
Tusen tack:-))
Take a look at this chart of net new highs /new lows. This is an unhealthy market for sure. The question is whether these very bad net new highs /new lows is a wash out for the weak areas of the market which would be bullish.... or an indication that we are close to a cycle high of a very short intermediate cycle that began late August.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Allt hänger ihop... den ena är positiv den andra negativ...
In the end, this will be scrubbed clean, but who?s smart enough to call a bottom.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
dollar vs Guld
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CIBC analyst got death threats on Citigroup:
"Clients are not pleased with my call and I have had several death threats," she continued. "But it was the most straightforward call I've made in my career and I am surprised my peer analysts have been resistant. It's so straightforward, it's indisputable."
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Conferences of Note
Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin speaks in New York Monday morning at Risk Magazine's Risk USA conference. His topic is financial instability and monetary policy.
The securities industry holds its annual meeting in Boca Raton at the end of the week. That meeting is always good for catching up with the latest trends on the street, and we know "CEO-icide" is one of them. First it was Merrill Lynch's Stan O'Neal, and now Citigroup's Chuck Prince. The crowd will be betting on who will replace them, plus which firm is housing the next big writedown.
Bet there's also some buzz, so to speak, around Bear Stearns' Jimmy Cayne. Cayne has denied any wrongdoing, but the allegations in the Wall Street Journal that he played golf during the summer's market turmoil and smoked marijuana at a bridge tournament will no doubt have the Boca crowd talking.
On Wednesday, the Deal's M&A outlook 2008 conference is held in New York, and Dow Jones and Nielsen hold a Media and Money conference in New York Wednesday and Thursday. Speakers include Time Warner president Jeffrey Bewkes, Viacom Chairman Sumner Redstone and Daniel Snyder, owner of the Washington Red Skins.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Åtta av nio ledamöter i Bank of
Japans policykommitté röstade i september för att hålla
styrräntan oförändrad på 0,50 procent. Atsushi Mizuno
reserverade sig och ville höja räntan.
Det framgår av protokollet från Bank of Japans
policymöte den 18-19 september som publicerades på måndagen,
rapporterar Bloomberg News.
En del av ledamöterna konstaterade vid mötet att en
"lång period" av global penningpolitisk lättnad hade lett till
"överdrivet finansiellt beteende" som resulterade i den
amerikanska bolånekrisen.
...
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djia
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spx
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ndx
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rut
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STOCKHOLM (Direkt) De amerikanska inköpschefernas index
för tjänstesektorn steg till 55,8 i oktober jämfört med 54,8
månaden före.
Det visar statistik från Institute for Supply Chain
Management, ISM.
Enligt Bloomberg News snittprognos väntades ett index på
54,0.
Prisindex sjönk till 63,5 från 66,1 föregående månad.
Sysselsättningsindex sjönk till 51,8 från 52,7.
Orderindex steg till 55,7 från 53,4,
index över exportorder steg till 56,0 i oktober från 50,0 månaden före./PD-JBA
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
# 0
Japan's central bank governor hints at future rate hike
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Monday that interest rates in the world's second largest economy should rise despite recent turmoil in global financial markets.
"There is a risk that disruptive changes in overseas economies or global financial markets may affect Japan's economy," Fukui told business leaders in Osaka, western Japan, on Monday.
"But we need to pay greater attention to the risk of prolonged easy policy, even as downside risks grow," Fukui told a group of reporters after his speech.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Twenty Largest Companies In the World...
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From CNBC:
Consumer products maker Procter & Gamble Co. said Tuesday its first-quarter profit rose 14 percent, but said rising commodity, energy and product investment costs will hurt its second-quarter margins.
Några chart
1
Wheat
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
2
Soybeans
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3
Oats
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4
Corn
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5
Oil
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6
Propane
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
7
Heating Oil
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Credit Crunch
What does it mean?
An economic condition where investment capital is difficult to obtain. Banks and investors become wary of lending funds to corporations, thereby driving up the price of debt products for borrowers.
Investopedia says: " Credit crunches are usually considered to be an extension of recessions. A credit crunch makes it nearly impossible for companies to borrow because lenders are scared of bankruptcies or defaults, which results in higher rates. The consequence is a prolonged recession (or slower recovery), which occurs as a result of the shrinking credit supply. Inte där än
Är det inte därför Fed sänkte räntan!
Oh boy!
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
#22 Hmmm.... hur är den listan framtagen? Enl siffror jag tittar på borde GAZP ligga på plats 8 men den finns inte med alls.
mvh
PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska ekonomin är "riktigt
uthållig", och det var "inte överraskande" att BNP-tillväxten
var så hög som 3,9 procent under det tredje kvartalet.
Det sade Fedguvernören Frederic Mishkin vid en
frågestund efter ett anförande på måndagen, enligt Bloomberg
News.
Han sade vidare att den fallande dollarkursen är en
faktor för inflationen som Federal Reserve måste överväga. Men
om inflationsförväntningarna är stabila blir
inflationseffekten av dollarförsvagningen mindre.
Frederic Mishkin sade att Fed måste hålla ögonen på
inflationen, men han konstaterade samtidigt att
infaltionsförväntningarna är "anmärkningsvärt" stabila.
Federal Reserves räntesänkningar har inte påverkat
förväntningarna.
Han påpekade dock samtidigt att Federal Reserve kommer
att agera för att hålla inflationen under kontroll.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
# 31
enligt nedan Ligger dem på plats 52 :-))
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Citigroup is a "major concern" for Wall Street, says Al Goldman of A.G. Edwards. "What you don't know hurts a lot, and unfortunately, the subprime mortgage market problem is very amorphous," Goldman says. If the credit debacle news has reached a "crescendo" with Citigroup's news, Goldman says, we'll have a good November and December.
However, he says, "if we keep getting dribs and drabs of bad news, day-in and day-out, then we can kiss the year-end rally goodbye."
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Humpty Dumpty Dollar
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# 31
PetroChina's Value Tops $1 Trillion, Surpassing Exxon
PetroChina's share surge means it beat by years a Russian pledge to create the world's largest company.
OAO Gazprom, Russia's natural gas export monopoly, would become the world's largest company by market value and top $1 trillion in ``seven to 10 years,'' Alexander Medvedev, the company's deputy chief executive officer, said in April. Gazprom's market valuation today is $296 billion.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Sun Microsystems IncSun Microsystems Inc
Reported a first-quarter profit of $89 million, or 3 cents a share, on revenue of $3.22 billion. The computer server and software developer turned around from a year-ago loss of $56 million, or 2 cents a share, on revenue of $3.19 billion. The company also said its results included a restructuring charge equal to 3 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had forecast Sun to earn 3 cents a share on $3.27 billionon Monday reported a first-quarter profit of $89 million, or 3 cents a share, on revenue of $3.22 billion. The computer server and software developer turned around from a year-ago loss of $56 million, or 2 cents a share, on revenue of $3.19 billion. The company also said its results included a restructuring charge equal to 3 cents a share.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had forecast Sun to earn 3 cents a share on $3.27 billion
USA marknaden föll med 4% säger företaget
Aktien faller med 1,93 %
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
# 0
PIMCO: Fed "can't afford" to let housing crack
- A Fed cannot afford to let homes go down by 10 to 15 percent like we saw in Japan," said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. or Pimco, on CNBC Television.
- The turmoil in the subprime mortgage-market is a "$1 trillion problem ... there are $1 trillion worth of subprimes and Alt-As and basically garbage loans," Gross said.
He expects $250 billion of subprime and Alt-A mortgage loans to default and those defaults will fall to the balance sheets of investment stalwarts such as Merrill Lynch and Citigroup
- "We've only begun to see the pain from the standpoint of the homeowner in terms of those monthly payments. Defaults and delinquencies will increase as we extend throughout 2007 and then into 2008."
- The problems don't stop there, however.
Municipal-bond investors, he said, must make sure that the underlying foundation of their bonds are solid. "There's not a problem with solvency or default here, but there's a problem in terms of ratings," he said. "These monoline insurers that rate municipal bonds that take a single A or Baa bond to triple-A based on the insurance ... if the insurance companies are written down, then no longer do we have triple-A or double-A munis."
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
No Credit Crunch ? ouups
Bankers? Lesson From Mortgage Mess: Sell, Don?t Hold
- Bankers on Wall Street frequently describe themselves as being in the moving and not the storage business. They make money by trading stocks and bonds, not by owning them.
- In the last week, top executives at two of the world?s largest banks, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, have come under scrutiny for ignoring that fundamental principle.
The banks, along with rivals like UBS, were found to be holding billions of dollars of mortgage-related bonds that have fallen sharply in value as default rates have surged.
- The trouble stems from the banks? significant involvement in collateralized debt obligations, which raise money by selling bonds to investors and using the proceeds to buy other bonds, many of which are backed by subprime home loans.
- Though many details are unclear, it appears that the banks kept a sizable part of the bonds issued by their C.D.O.?s on their own books this spring and summer, believing that they were safe and that the market for them would recover from the slightly lower prices that the securities were fetching at the time.
"A lot of us were scratching our heads wondering ?Where did these bonds go,?" said a banker at a rival institution who was not authorized to speak publicly.
"They just sat on them, putting them here or there on the balance sheet. They thought they were going to be O.K."
- Not all banks are in the same boat. It appears that some companies with big mortgage operations cut back on the number of C.D.O.?s they issued in the first half of the year from the same period in 2006. Credit Suisse and Royal Bank of Scotland, for instance, cut their production by about a third, according to data from Asset-Backed Alert.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Insider selling i US financials var under perioden november 2006 till mars 2007 den högsta på 17 år. De senaste veckorna har insiders i sektorn bytt sida och insider buying är nu det nästa högsta det varit på sju år.
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska detaljhandeln i
jämförbara butiker steg 1,9 procent vecka 44, som avslutades
den 3 november, jämfört med motsvarande period ett år
tidigare.
Det visar Johnson Redbooks index, enligt ett
pressmeddelande.
Handeln ökade med 2,1 procent under den senaste månaden
jämfört med samma period 2006 (målsättning +2,3 procent) och
sjönk 0,4 procent jämfört med månaden före (målsättning -0,2
procent).
Redbook konstaterar att utfallet var under målsättningen
i oktober. Vissa affärer klarade sig bättre, understödda av
Halloween-försäljning. För andra affärer betydde helgen helt
enkelt att det till det fortsatta lugnet i den säsongsmässiga
efterfrågan lades färre inköp när helgen höll konsumenterna
borta från affärerna.
För november är den preliminära målsättningen att
handeln ska öka med 2,3 procent jämfört med samma månad 2006,
vilket motsvarar en målsättning på +0,3 procent från
oktober./JBA
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
# 0
Guldet fortsätter upp
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
The excerpts from an article in Market Watch, gives a broad brush summary of comments from a variety of experts like Alan Greenspan, George Soros, etc. Basically, they all see plenty of bumps ahead.
The Experts Speak About Housing, the Economy, Lending, Etc.
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) General Motors redovisar ett
nettoresultat på -2:80 dollar per aktie, exklusive
engångsposter, för det tredje kvartalet (0:98).
Analytikerna hade väntat sig ett resultat på -0:25
dollar per aktie, enligt First Calls sammanställning.
Inklusive engångseffekter uppgick resultatet till -68:85
dollar per aktie.
Försäljningen under perioden uppgick till 43,1 miljarder
dollar (48,9). Väntat var en försäljning på 42,1 miljarder
dollar./GV
mer här
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) De amerikanska lagren av råolja
minskade med 0,8 miljoner fat under den senaste veckan.
Det visar statistik från USA:s energidepartement, DOE.
Enligt Bloomberg News väntades en minskning av
råoljelagren på -1,5 miljoner fat.
De amerikanska lagren av bensin sjönk också med 0,8
miljoner fat. Här väntades en oförändrad lagernivå.
Lagren av destillat, en kategori som inkluderar
eldningsolja och diesel, steg med 0,1 miljoner fat under förra
veckan. Här väntades en minskning med 0,45 miljoner fat./SO-VR
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Looking forward, however, the Committee did not see the recent growth performance as likely to be sustained in the near term. Financial conditions had improved somewhat after the September FOMC action, but the market for nonconforming mortgages remained significantly impaired, and survey information suggested that banks had tightened terms and standards for a range of credit products over recent months. In part because of the reduced availability of mortgage credit, the contraction in housing-related activity seemed likely to intensify. Indicators of overall consumer sentiment suggested that household spending would grow more slowly, a reading consistent with the expected effects of higher energy prices, tighter credit, and continuing weakness in housing. Most businesses appeared to enjoy relatively good access to credit, but heightened uncertainty about economic prospects could lead business spending to decelerate as well. Overall, the Committee expected that the growth of economic activity would slow noticeably in the fourth quarter from its third-quarter rate. Growth was seen as remaining sluggish during the first part of next year, then strengthening as the effects of tighter credit and the housing correction began to wane.
The Committee also saw downside risks to this projection: One such risk was that financial market conditions would fail to improve or even worsen, causing credit conditions to become even more restrictive than expected. Another risk was that, in light of the problems in mortgage markets and the large inventories of unsold homes, house prices might weaken more than expected, which could further reduce consumers' willingness to spend and increase investors' concerns about mortgage credit.
The Committee projected overall and core inflation to be in a range consistent with price stability next year. Supporting this view were modest improvements in core inflation over the course of the year, inflation expectations that appeared reasonably well anchored, and futures quotes suggesting that investors saw food and energy prices coming off their recent peaks next year. But the inflation outlook was also seen as subject to important upside risks. In particular, prices of crude oil and other commodities had increased sharply in recent weeks, and the foreign exchange value of the dollar had weakened. These factors were likely to increase overall inflation in the short run and, should inflation expectations become unmoored, had the potential to boost inflation in the longer run as well.
angående inflation se inlägg # 23 till 29
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
# 46
A brief summary of some of Bernanke's prepared comments for his testimony today:
- Bernanke: says mortgage deliquencies to rise in coming quarters
- Bernanke says FOMC in October meeting didn't see robust growth of Q3 sustained in near term
- Bernanke: Repeats Fed to 'act as needed' on growth, inflation
- Bernanke: subprime delinquencies likely to rise, more foreclosures may weaken housing, broader economy
- Bernanke: Fed 'on schedule' for new mortgage rules in 2007
- Bernanke says inflation pressure from oil may further restrain economy
- Bernanke says Fed sees 'sluggish' growth in first part of '08
- Bernanke says U.S. economy remains resilient but financial market volatility, strains have persisted
- Bernanke: Dollar, Oil, Commodities to spur short run inflation
- Bernanke says FOMC expects growth to 'slow noticeably' in Q4
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Det amerikanska bolåneinstitutet
Fannie Mae spår att nedgången på bostadsmarknaden kommer att
fortsätta 2007 ut och in på 2008.
Det framgår av redovisningsdokument för årets första nio
månader som bolaget lämnat in till SEC, rapporterar Bloomberg
News.
Bolaget skriver vidare att det varit skyddat från de
värsta effekterna av problemen på bostadsmarknaden under årets
första nio månader./GV
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Det index som University of Michigan
publicerar varje månad över stämningen bland de amerikanska
konsumenterna sjönk till 75,0 i november jämfört med 80,9 i
oktober.
Det framgår av preliminära siffror på fredagen.
Analytikerna som tillfrågats i Bloomberg News
prognosenkät räknade med att även oktobers månads preliminära
Michiganindex skulle hamna på 80,0.
Undersökningen visar också att konsumenterna väntar en
inflationstakt på 3,4 procent på ett års sikt, upp från 3,1
procent i oktober.
På fem års sikt väntar konsumenterna en
inflationstakt på 2,9 procent, upp från 2,8 procent i
oktober./MS-JBA
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970
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# 0
länker om ni vill läsa mer.
Long-term inflation?
...
Shadow Dancing
Förre veckans statitik:-))
" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970