Fed watch 071211

Varför satsa på något osannolikt?

Blir -25 punkter, möjligen -50 punkter. Punkt Slut.

Man ska inte pissa i motvind.. :)

Tror på en sänkning med 0,25%! men sen säger man att  fler sänkningar framöver inte är troligt.....  

devalvera dollarn, skapa mera dollars, så går börsen upp ?

CNBC: Ron Paul's question makes Ben Bernake's voice quiver 

Mvh werik1

Investment Outlook
Bill Gross | December 2007

The Shadow Knows

Forward-looking bond investors should understand that the shadow banking system has been built on leverage and cheap financing and that to keep it from imploding, a return to Fed Funds levels closer to those of 2003 may be required. While the Fed is not likely to repeat its 1% "deflation insurance" levels of that year, current Fed Funds futures which predict a 3¼% bottom are not likely to be correct either. Standby for a tumultuous 2008 as the market struggles to move from the shadows back into the sunlight of sounder banking and financial management, accompanied by Fed Funds levels at 3% or lower. 

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Nominal GDP Growth har accelererats från isnitt 4% tillväxt från Q3 06 till Q1 07 till isnitt hela 5,8% de senaste tre kvartalen,såna tillväxt  accelerationer sker inte om räntan är tight .

Företagen har mer än en trillion dollar cash och spendera ,labor compensation har vuxit med hela 475 billion dollar jämfört med förra året (annu rate).

Med så mycket köpkraft i företagens och konsumenternas händer ,risken är stor att tillväxten i det kommandde året blir stark och inte så svag som den rättfärdigar en räntesänkning .

Falling into the liquidity trap

We learned this in the 1930s, when, after first shrinking the money supply enough to pull prices down by about 25%, the Federal Reserve of that era tried to force-feed liquidity into the economy with the hopes of pushing it out of its slump.  

It didn't work. Lenders were reluctant to lend, while potential borrowers did not want to borrow.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Och  vi måste inte glömma Discount rate 

Med hur mycket den sänks

0,25%

0,50% eller 0,75%

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

#7 Ja diskontot är viktigare i nuläget.... för de stressade aktörer som måste besöka diskontofönstret. På väg mot graven... brukar det ju sägas. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee on Tuesday cut its benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter of one percentage point to 4.25%. The Fed statement was more downbeat about the outlook for growth. The statement repeated that "some inflation risks remain." The Fed stipped out a balance of risk statement. This is the third straight meeting with a rate cut after the financial markets seized up in August. The decision was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street. In a related action, the Fed trimmed the discount rate by a quarter point to 4.75%. There was one dissent. Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren wanted a bigger rate cut

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Sänkning med 25 punkter. S&P ner direkt mot 1506.

Vi får se om det rättar upp sig senare ikväll.

Discount rate sänkte börsen:-))

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

spx   

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

bank index redan ner 3,31%

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Citigroup på plus

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/4 percent.

Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today?s action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis.

bild på rut

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Amerikanska marknadsräntor sjönk
kraftigt medan USA-dollarn utvecklades efter Federal
Reserve räntebesked på tisdagskvällen. Aktiemarknaden vände
samtidigt tydligt nedåt, efter att ha stigit svagt inför
räntebeskedet.

Fed sänkte visserligen styrräntan med 25 punkter,
vilket var i linje med de allra flesta ekonomers prognoser,
men marknadsaktörer blev åtminstone initialt besvikna på
att centralbanken inte gjorde några starka åtaganden
ytterligare lättnader. Att diskontoräntan endast sänktes
med 25 punkter blev en besvikelse för flera bedömare, som
hade hoppats på en sänkning med 50 punkter.

Federal Reserves uttalande i samband med
räntebeskedet lyfte fram att den senaste tidens utveckling,
inklusive de försämrade förhållandena på finansmarknaden
har ökat osäkerheten om utsikterna för den ekonomiska
tillväxten och inflationen. Till skillnad från i oktober
skriver Fed inte att riskerna är balanserade.

Lite drygt 30 minuter efter räntebeskedet noterades
tvåårsräntan till 2,94 procent, 18 punkter lägre än före
räntebeskedet, tioårsräntan hade samtidigt sjunkit 9
punkter till 4,00 procent.

På valutamarknaden steg dollarn mot euron men
försvagade samtidigt mot den japanska yenen. I linje med en
tydlig dragning mot ökad riskaversion på ränte- och
aktiemarknaderna försvagades euron därmed markant mot den
japanska yenen, från cirka 164:40 strax före räntebeskedet
till nära 162:50 en dryg halvtimme senare.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Citigroup ner över 3%

efter ha utsett ny VD  Vikram Pandit

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Märkligt. Allt var upplagt för en besvikelsereaktion ... och så blir det en besvikelsereaktion. Börsen upphör aldrig att förvåna, även när den agerar "logiskt" - enligt sin egen logik, nota bene. 

xlf

Titta bara på MA 50

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

RUT

Titta på MA 50

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Thoughts On The Fed

"Thinking as a trader, the most counter-intuitive outcome here would be a resumption of the Santa rally and run into year end. It's just become my favored scenario, because it seems so outlandish after the Fed news." - Alan Farley

"The assumption this afternoon is surely going to be that if the market falls so much on a day the Fed cut rates, then that has to be a bad sign going forward. I see the logic there, but logic usually doesn't have much place in the stock market. Going back to 1971, I checked for any time that the S&P dropped 1% or more on a day the Fed cut. There were only five instances that popped up, and the S&P formed at least a short-term low within two days four of those times. The best bet was had by waiting for an additional 1% - 2% of downside, then buying and holding for a few days or 2% - 5% upside." - Jason Goepfert

 

"Aside from the declines seen on the FOMC day on the first trading day following 9/11, this is the worst decline on a Fed day since 1990. We went back and found all FOMC days in which the S&P 500 fell by more than 1% to see how the market has performed going forward. The results are positive for tomorrow and the next week, but negative from now to the next Fed meeting on January 30th." - Bespoke

"I'll leave the berating of the Fed to others and will spend my energy trying to deal with this market. Things look very poor going forward. The technical conditions support further downside, and the Fed was really the only good positive catalyst we had going for us. Without that, we have some end-of-the-year seasonality that may help, but that is not a sure thing by any means." - Rev Shark

"Fed members are probably amazed at the market reaction, believing that they not only did what seemed right on a policy basis but something close to market expectations. Wordsmiths need to come up with synonymous phrases for "behind the curve." I am sick of it already!" - Jeff Miller

"With only a quarter-point cut, we will no longer be able to forestall the bankruptcies. Banks are holding on for dear life, homebuilders the same. But their lifeline just got choked and far fewer will live because of this. Lots of times people talk about stock traders being complacent. Lots of times you hear about bullish money managers that are way too excited about stocks. But I have never heard a statement from a more bullish group of people in my life. They genuinely think that inflation remains a big problem. I am aghast." - Jim Cramer

"The Fed blew it once again. They are still behind the curve. Expect the bears to enjoy the fruits of the Fed's whiff as the A.I.R. pauses. They should just let me make monetary policy. Like 2000, 2004, and 2006 when I had major disagreements with their policy, I expect they will come around too little too late." - Robert Marcin

"What is just breathtaking to me is that the Fed sees balanced risks between inflation and growth. I understand that the Fed is destined to be behind the curve (because it relies on past data to dictate policy that takes time to flow through the economy), but these guys are so behind the curve that they are getting lapped." - Dan Fitzpatrick

"Dollars to donuts, perhaps literally, the FOMC couldn't cut fitty without invoking the wrath of foreign holders of dollar denominated assets. As it is, we're in a pretty pinch." - Todd Harrison

"Boom Boom almost did the right thing. Had it spared us the pandering 1/4 point begged for by financial speculators, he would have finally shown the kind of stones that will be needed to guide us out of the current mess. Equities do not like it one bit, as well they shouldn't; the wimpy move is likely to worsen the credit environment and the financial markets as a whole could be in for a year-end pasting. So why do I suggest the Fed did the almost right thing? Because one cannot devalue its way out of a gigantic pile of debt. Companies, many companies, need to fail, go away forever, and allow those who have a business existing to once again prosper not on the back of borrowed money, but on the strength of real demand, rather than demand generated by a need to circulate make belief money. Had the Fed figured this out in 2001, by 2003 we would likely have forgotten the then recession. Instead it decided to try to fool everyone into believing that we could borrow our way into a permanent plateau of prosperity." - Fil Zucchi

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.