Kassaskåpet II
bullcase
stöd @12600 grön pil
mål 16200-17000 nån gång 2010-11 rödpil
^DJ månad sen 1929
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
omsom över, omsom under strecket
just nu typ där @1071
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
regression line med magenta @1071 just nu i nedre graf
2 rebounds markerade med gult , en misslyckat 2002, men det var downtrend
so, the sky is the only limit, dow 14000, sen får vi se
en lyckat rebound som 98 bör ge 1306
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
sen 29
så, viss stöd 12780,730, annars 12500-600
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
sp zoom
hoppas att 1380 håller och vi åker mot 1450
annars 1330 nästa ppt försvarlinje
jag tror inte att det råder nån panik hos stora aktörer, iofs varje pkt lägre är ett bätre köptillf. men vid 1330 börjar gnissla
my 2c
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
same stuff for dj, stödet höll, men det verkar luta åt 12260. verkar
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
2 bortglömdavalår 1966 och 74
ner in i okt
annars svårt att hitta ett sekvens med mer än 2 röda månader på raken, utom 2002
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
no peak
BP Economist: No Imminent Peak To Oil Production
13:26
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- A BP PLC (BP) economist Wednesday said the world isn't
facing an impending oil shortage, rejecting the so-called 'peak oil' theory.
"An imminent peak in production has been repeatedly and wrongly predicted,"
said Peter Davies, special economic advisor to BP and formerly the company's
chief economist.
The peak oil argument states world oil production is approaching, or has
already reached, its maximum. But Davies said limited access in oil-rich
nations to outside investors, unfavorable tax regimes and lack of investment
were to blame for the limits on oil supply growth.
"It's not a resource issue, it's an investment issue," Davies said, speaking
at a meeting held by the U.K.'s All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and
Gas.
Davies said world oil production would peak eventually - but not any time
soon, and not for lack of oil in the ground. He argued climate change policies
encouraging a shift away from oil consumption would lead to "peak demand," and
discourage further oil production growth.
"There's a distinct possibility that global oil production could peak because
of climate change policies," rather than a shortage of oil, he said.
Data for 2006 show world oil reserves stood at 1.2 trillion barrels,
according to BP's 2007 Statistical Review of World Energy.
"Proved oil reserves continue to climb in the long run," BP said in the
report. "Reserves have grown 72.9 billion barrels since 2001 and 159.2 billion
barrels or 15% over the last decade."
Meanwhile, the world still has 14 trillion barrels of conventional and
unconventional oil "in place," with conventional oil accounting for half the
total, according to Davies. Oil in place refers to the total amount contained
in a reservoir, and isn't a measure of the amount of crude that can be
recovered or produced.
New technologies could also add to world's oil resource base - including
enhanced oil recovery techniques, biofuels and unconventional oils such as tar
sands, Davies said.
Davies' comments echo BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward's rejection of the peak
oil argument, but executives from other major oil companies have recently
expressed concern over oil supply growth.
ConocoPhillips (COP) CEO James Mulva said in November he doubted world oil
producers would be able to meet forecast long-term energy demand growth.
The International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog for western economies,
has projected 2030 world oil demand of 116 million barrels a day, but Mulva
said he doesn't believe oil supply will ever exceed 100 million barrels a day.
He didn't offer a price forecast.
"Demand will be going up, but it will be constrained by supply," Mulva said.
"I don't think we are going to see the supply going over 100 million barrels a
day and the reason is: Where is all that going to come from?"
Also, Total SA (TOT) CEO Christophe de Margerie said in October it was
"optimistic" to expect oil production to surpass 100 million barrels a day. The
world contains adequate oil reserves, but the oil industry and producer
countries would struggle to develop those reserves, De Margerie said.
But BP's Davies believes 100 million barrels a day "is achievable," if
adequate investments are made.
A recent study by Boston-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates asserts
while output from the world's existing oil fields is declining at a rate of
about 4.5% annually, new projects in the works will make up for the decline.
"This study supports a view that there is no impending short-term peak in
global oil production," the paper concludes. CERA, led by oil historian Daniel
Yergin, is a prominent adviser to oil companies.
But according to the U.K.-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, global oil
production will peak and go into sustained decline in roughly a decade.
"Many forecasters - including those employed by the French and German
governments - now expect global oil production to peak between now and 2020,"
ODAC said in a report. It said peak production had already been observed in
over 60 of the world's 98 oil-producing countries.
sp sen 74 t vänster th month
nog tror jag att den studsar här nånstans
1289 nästa stöd
obs hur fibo serien funkar perfekt i höjdled-1322
bb i month ligger på 1242, så vi kommer dit så småningom
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
vill ge en tydligare bild av det här med pitchfork
men visst kan forken dras annorlunda
annars målet tycks vara 1245-60-grön prick
sp m
mvh
känner igen det mesta
Mvh werik1
#22kommentar nedre charten- om just nu 4 pkt mellan sp och es
1242-58 i sp bör vara 1248-62 i es, terminen @1265 just nu, var som lägst 1256, dvs sp 1252
nedre bb i month @1242 för sp, bara 10 pkt dit
år 2000 när vi hade nåt liknande i grafen, nådde inte den tredje röda månaden ända ner till BB, utan månaden därpå, och det blev studs till mitt bb typ till 1415 i år
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
"Questions about the benefits of a fiscal stimulus package made up a major part of the Q&A session in Bernanke's testimony. As an example, Bernanke answered that the impact of a $100 billion tax rebate to households was expected to result in a $60 billion increase in consumer spending. This has enormous significance. As an exercise, when we plugged in $60 billion spending in our GDP forecasting model, holding other things constant, it resulted in a nearly 2.0% annualized increase in real GDP in the quarter it was spent. The multiplier effect of this spending is a more complex exercise. Our exercise is for illustrative purposes only. Studies have found that the rebate is probably spent over two quarters. By implication, the $140 billion package should have a larger impact than the example cited in the testimony.
"Fiscal policy has a relative advantage compared with monetary policy when considering the timing issues of policies because the impact lag of fiscal policy is smaller in comparison with monetary policy. By contrast, the implementation lag of fiscal policy is longer than monetary policy. Therefore, the emphasis is on enacting the package in a timely manner. If the Fed lowers the Fed funds rate to 3.00%, eventually, matching our forecast, it would be a cumulative ease of 225 basis points. The impact of this large cut in the federal funds rate will be visible only several months ahead unlike the impact of fiscal policy changes."
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
GaveKal: Remaining bullish on oil is a dangerous strategy
"... we think remaining structurally bullish on oil is ... dangerous, given how far speculation seems to have drifted from sound fundamentals. Indeed, current prices are implying that 2008 will be the most bullish year ever for world growth (an assumption that is in stark contrast to the current bearish mood on growth). So what is going on?
"Current speculative fever centers on crude stock levels being at multi-year lows, and indeed they are. However, if we look at stocks of refined products, the picture is not as dramatic. The difference is accounted for by a slowdown in oil demand in the US - itself a function of price, seasonality and GDP growth. And herein lies the rub: With everyone and his uncle is calling for a recession in the US, official bodies keep lowering their energy demand growth estimates, and the industry is thereby left with little incentive to keep adding to stocks. In turn, low inventory numbers fuel speculation, and oil prices rise further - which discourages demand (as oil consumption does have some elasticity to price). Ironically, bold speculation (based on insufficient inventories) could further discourage oil demand at a very inopportune time ?
"If the US falls into recession or simply slows down further this year, or if Europe enters a recession, or if Asia begins selling more of its production at home and shipping less across the Pacific, then demand for oil could drop dramatically. As we see it, these ' if's' are currently much more plausible than what oil is pricing in: a) a powerful surge in demand ahead, or b) a cataclysmic collapse in supply (while this risk is certainly still a concern, we note that production out of Iraq is now at a post-Saddam record high). All in all, we continue to believe that, for the oil price, the risks are far greater on the downside."
Source: GaveKal - Checking the Boxes, January, 2008
twiggs lär oss att olja är kopplat till guld
gold w
det kanske tar 3-4 månader att återkomma till basen
XAU8R 700UBS
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
hamn snackar om ett långterm indikator i spx, typ näst sista 1/5 av videon
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
there is no bussiness like dj bizness
tv week, i mitten sen '29
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
tidigara har jag trott att SP måste göra touchdown på nedre BB i month
jag gissar att det kommer, förr eller senare
sen, det senaste bearmarknaden, 2000-2003 gav oss 2 sekvenser med 4 rödastaplar i month. men de senare down the road
den sekvensen jag tänkte på var direkt fr toppen2000. då blev det bara 3 röda, den fjärde stapel, det blev en grönt, snygg tail och rally därefter
nu blev en massa pisskörningar under februari, som hindrade index att falla och göra en hälsosamt rebound mot nedre BB. resultatet är en klumpigt röd stapel. att jämföra med motsvarande 4röda sekvenser som slutade med tail och uppåt 2000-2003.
det leder oss till 66, 73-74
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
well, sp gjorde äntligen det, i månad
BB alltså
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
så blev det så småningom 2002-3
tyvärr är det svårt att extrapolera var 34 stödet kommer att var när vi bottnar
regr kanalen räknar en genomsnitt för hela perioden och mitt linjen ändrar vinkel så småningom
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
då får vi titta hur det gick till på 70-80talet när latinamerika krisen satte jänkarbankerna i teknisk konkurs
sp studsade på ma100-200, ibland långt under-typ 74
översatt i dagens kurser så är det ma100 @1220, ma200 @970 i månad
låt oss be för ma100
på uppsidan är 1430 en absolut gräns på månadsbasis
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
#55 Den bilden förstod jag! Hade en liknande jämförelse i OMXS30-strängen idag!
Tyvärr har jag annars svårt att förstå dina bilder, vilket är synd, för du är verkligen flitig! :-)
MVH Nisse45
sorry about that :-)
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
tran month
glöm all the monkeys and dow theory
kolla dubbeltop då och nu
don't be a turkey
NNT
don't be a turkey
NNT
a history of brutna linjer
om vi antar att sp fortsätter vidare upp, så är det ingenting som säger att det gula linjen inte går samma öde till mötes så som cyan
ma200 är stödet
ma 100 magneten
don't be a turkey
NNT
don't be a turkey
NNT
don't be a turkey
NNT
don't be a turkey
NNT
Bankir Vresig 10:31
Kan inte Portugal så bra, trots att jag anser det vara roligare vinland än de flesta...
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future,"
niels bohr
men hur gick det i det förflutna i election years?
kollar fom '68: 10 fall, i år den elfte
bara 2000 slutade lägre än 31aug, men aug var bra
'80 var baraopp hela året
66,76,88,92 var bitvis lägre än juli, men botten för hela året
i år är vi under fib fan, likaså var det 1981, kanske det var året med usa bankkrisen, örsakat av latinodefault, det bottnade i aug och gick sen bara opp
det här är ingen rek, bara ett konstaterande
mvh
and
don't be a turkey
NNT
är det divergens eller blir det dubbeltopp
trots fallande börs i juni-juli så minskade spreaden-mot vad det menas i rapporten - jag tolkar det possitivt
don't be a turkey
NNT
lite wedge och kanaler
det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA
är vi där?
det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA
dj fr 29
8000 kan bli nåt
det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA
Visa sida
Ogilla! 10
Gilla!
pessimistscenariot
motstånd @ 14013-rödpil
stöd @12445 grön pil, men troligast ner till 10500
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette