FRIDAY'S JOBS

# 0

No 'smoking gun' of recession expected in key data

"Neither the ISM or the job report are going to change anyone's mind about where we are and where we're headed. We're in a growth recession, not yet turning into a full-blown recession," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. A growth recession is a period of very slow, but not negative growth.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Antalet sysselsatta utanför
jordbrukssektorn i USA minskade med 17.000 personer i
januari. Arbetslösheten var samtidigt 4,9 procent, ned från
5,0 procent månaden före.

Analytiker räknade med att sysselsättningen skulle
öka med 70.000 jämfört med månaden före, och att
arbetslösheten skulle vara 5,0 procent, enligt Bloomberg News
prognosgenomsnitt.

I december steg sysselsättningen med reviderade
82.000, tidigare +18.000, och novembersiffran reviderades
samtidigt till +60.000 från +115.000.

Den genomsnittliga timlönen steg 0,2 procent i
januari, jämfört med oreviderade 0,4 procent månaden före.
Analytiker hade väntat sig en ökning med 0,3 procent.

Den genomsnittliga arbetstiden per vecka var 33,7
timmar per vecka i januari (33,8). Analytikerna väntade 33,8
timmar per vecka.

Sysselsättningen inom industrin minskade med 28.000
personer, jämfört med förväntningarna om en nedgång med
20.000 för industrisysselsättningen. I december minskade
sysselsättningen i industrin med reviderade -20.000 personer
(-31.000).

Sysselsättningen inom den tjänsteproducerande sektorn
steg med 34.000 personer, i detaljhandeln steg
sysselsättningen med 11.000 personer.

Byggindustrin noterade en minskad sysselsättning på
27.000 personer i januari jämfört med månaden före. Antalet
offentliganställda sjönk med 18.000 personer.

Antalet personer som ingår i arbetskraften minskade
med 42.000 personer i december, till 153,824 miljoner.

Hushållsundersökningen tydde samtidigt på att
sysselsättningen ökade med 37.000 personer i januari, efter
en nedgång med 436.000 personer i december.
Andelen av befolkningen som ingår i arbetskraften
var 66,1 procent, upp från 66,0 procent månaden före.

Antal personer i arbetskraften som för närvarande kan
ta ett arbete steg till 12,433 miljoner jämfört med 12,352
miljoner månaden före.

Andelen av befolkningen som har ett
jobb var 62,9 procent i januari, jämfört med 62,7 procent
månaden före./PD-SP

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

utmärkt 

Mvh werik1

# 3

tack

The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in January for the first time in more than four years, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further next month to head off a recession.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Economists React: Labor Market Standing on ?Knife?s Edge?

Economists and others weigh in on the the January employment report, which showed an unexpected decline in nonfarm payrolls and slight drop in the unemployment rate.

1) Private payrolls rose by 1,000; the 18,000 drop in government jobs ? all at the state level ? is the first decline since July and may be a sign of what is to come as tax revenues drop? New element is the big slowing in private services, up 52,000 compared to three-month average of 118,000? Unemployment rate dipped to 4.9%, not unusual after the 0.3% December leap; trend is upwards? Expect further declines in payrolls over the next few months. -Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

2) The January data leave little doubt that the deepening housing recession is taking an increasingly heavy toll on the overall economy. Construction jobs fell 27,000 while manufacturing employment declined 28,000. Even in the services sector, a large number of industries cut or slowed job growth. Indeed, most of the gains in service industries were in non-cyclical industries ? education and health care and food retailing. Job growth in the leisure industries reflected smaller than usual seasonal cuts. -David Resler, Nomura Securities

3) The bottom line is that the labor market continues to lose steam. If there is a silver lining in the payroll numbers, it is that the December figure was revised upward sharply. Admittedly, the net revisions were minimal, but the November and December gains are now 60,000 and 82,000. That makes January?s small decline as much of an outlier as December?s slight increase seemed a month ago. Given that the first revision has been positive for 3 months in a row, don?t mark January in permanent red ink just yet. -Stephen Stanley, RBS Greenwich Capital

4) A second straight negative payroll report in February just about guarantees two things: another [half percentage point] cut out of the Fed when it meets again in March and a U.S. recession? After a multiyear boom the service sector went nearly flat during the first month of the year adding only 34,000 jobs to the economy? The labor sector stands on the knife?s edge and the economy is but a gentle breeze away from falling into recession. -Joseph Brusuelas, IDEAglobal

5) Given the size of the statistical adjustment for net business creation and lack of corroboration of this payroll reading by the ADP survey, we will have to wait for the February report before drawing a conclusion on whether the economy has slipped into recession. Nonetheless, the data here are sufficiently weak that we continue to look for a half-point cut in the funds rate in March. -Bear Stearns

6) For January, the pattern of payroll growth was consistent with the recent pattern, indicating that there is little reason not to believe this report. In combination with the claims data and other company specific data, this report suggests that the pace of hiring has slowed at the same time as the pace of firing has also slowed. This suggests that we should expect further weakness from the labor market (and the consumer) as we move into 2008. -Drew Matus, Lehman Brothers

7) Today?s report is certainly consistent with a slowdown in economic activity that we expect to intensify over the course of coming months. Still, we are starting to get more optimistic on prospects for the second half of the year given the massive amount of policy stimulus that is now in the pipeline. -David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley

8) The weakness in the labor market goes far beyond the headline jobs number. Average hourly earnings posted only a 0.2 percent gain, while average weekly hours fell slightly, to 33.7 hours. Combined with a net gain of only 1,000 private sector jobs, the data on hours and earnings data point to a slight decline in nominal wage and salary earnings in January that, after accounting for inflation, will translate into a more pronounced decline in real earnings. -Richard F. Moody, Mission Residential 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet