Microsoft köper Yahoo

Om affären blir av så kommer det att skaka om många företag och strukturer. Det första jag kommer att tänka på är att Google kan få sig en kraftfullare motståndare. Och om Microsoft ska kunna räkna hem affären så lär man behöva sätta full kraft bakom att kombinera Yahoo och MSN och vidareutveckla.

The $44.6 billion offer made by Microsoft for Yahoo comes at a time when the Internet search space seems to have hit a speed bump; both Yahoo and Google (the be-all and end-all of the business, and what a MSFT/YHOO combo would be aiming at) missed earnings expectations this week.

With Google looking like Ivan Drago, surprised to see himself bleeding for the first time, it could be that Microsoft smelled an opportunity to go after its main (albeit smaller) competitor ? which it has held previous discussions with ? at a time when Yahoo?s stock had slumped. "If they?d done this last year at this time it would have been a bigger dollar amount," says Kim Caughey, senior investment analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh, who owns shares of Microsoft.

The offer price ? $31 a share ? is one that "gets this deal done," she says, because it represents a 62% premium from Yahoo?s close at $19.18 on Thursday night. Such an offer short-circuits any type of cranky reaction from the Yahoo faithful, she believes, although some believe that such an overwhelming offer still represents desperation as Microsoft badly tries to shove its way into the Internet search space, where it barely registers (Google has 75% of this market).

"Why is Ballmer & Co. paying such a big premium?" writes Barry Ritholtz of Fusion IQ, in a note. "Does this imply the entire Tech market is hugely undervalued ? or is Microsoft desperate to catch up with Google?"

It also comes at a time when growth rates in the business appear to be slowing. Dave Stepherson, portfolio manager at Hardesty Capital Management, which owns shares of Microsoft, couldn?t hide his disappointment with the offer, as it appeared "Microsoft was just coming out of the desert."

"Shareholders of Microsoft are going to be sitting on dead money again," he says, noting that despite the decline in Yahoo?s shares, the stock was still trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39 times next year?s earnings estimates. "Because of the cost, it?s dilutive, the sheer size of it ? when you have big mergers like this, traditionally it takes a long time to integrate and synergize?it?s not as easy as everyone thinks."

Investors have responded, selling the stock, with shares down 5.3% while Yahoo gains 49%. There aren?t many complaints from Yahoo shareholders, as Peter Cohan of Bloggingstocks.com says CEO Jerry Yang is "flailing around with mediocre performance and an ineffectual combination of headcount reductions and investments in long-term goals that have little chance of actually being achieved." Additionally, he notes that putting together Yahoo and Microsoft gives the combined firm about a 27% share in total online spending, not far from Google?s 32% share.

"Yes, there?s going to be some dilution, yes, there?s a hit to cash flow and earnings in the extreme short-term ? but this positions Microsoft way better for the long term, and I?m willing, as an investor, to hold on," Ms. Caughey says.

Mr. Stepherson wasn?t as upbeat-sounding. "We?re not going to do anything yet ? there?s nothing saying this is going to happen," he says. "I think Microsoft was just starting to do fine on its own; that?s the real frustrating thing for us just as longtime shareholders."

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#1

I nuvarande form så är ju Google ändå överlägsen de båda. 

Yahoo says 'no-hoo' to Microsoft: report Board of directors set to reject unsolicited $31-per-share offer

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet