Bailout hopes ?

Analysts from Oppenheimer recently estimated that the total exposure which banks have with the bond insurance companies is $70 billion. If that number is accurate, it would be fair to ask how a $3 billion bail-out of Ambac and similar deals with MBIA (NYSE: MBI) and one or two other of the insurers would solve a problem which has a much broader financial magnitude.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

hajjar inte hur 3 billions kan rädda 200 som alla vet att det är skräp .

alla konstrollinstanser maste titta at andra hallet

Eight banks including Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG formed a group to consider providing financing, a person familiar with the matter said earlier this month. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Wachovia Corp., Barclays Plc, Societe Generale SA, BNP Paribas SA and Dresdner Bank AG, were also involved, said the person, who declined to be named because details hadn't been set. The banks face losses because they bought bond insurance to hedge the risks of collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities that are now tumbling in value. CDOs package pools of securities then split them into pieces with different ratings. Spokespeople for Citigroup, UBS, Wachovia and BNP declined to comment on the rescue plans. Spokespeople for RBS, Barclays, Societe Generale and Dresdner didn't immediately return e-mails or calls seeking comment. The bond insurers and banks are working against the clock. Moody's Investors Service indicated it will decide whether to downgrade Ambac and Armonk, New York-based MBIA by the end of the month. A downgrade of all the insurers would cast doubt over $2.4 trillion of securities they back. Losses on the subprime- mortgage securities they guaranteed prompted the ratings companies to demand the insurers add more capital or face downgrades.

bankirerna är uppfinningsrika, dom har nog löst detta redan, derivativs är bättre än pengar

subprime derivatives , första i raden utav tusen

Mvh werik1

Ha, ha, ha...     Fantastisk kreativitet och det mesta blir AAA. Men onekligen ett sätt att köpa sig tid!

Mer tid, löser detta problemet? Eller har man bara sopat allt under mattan, som andra får ta hand om när någon framöver lyfter på mattan. 

Tricken kan ju inte pågå i all oändlighet, då blir det mer skit/skräp än matta... 

Mvh sq52trader

en sak ÄR klar, albaniens pyramidspel var dagislek. jävla amatörer

"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette

conundrum is back 

"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette

#0

Hur kan sjunkande båtar ställer upp för att rädda en sjunkande båt?

Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, may post its second-straight quarterly loss because of writedowns on home-equity loans and junk-grade corporate loans, Oppenheimer & Co.'s Meredith Whitney said.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Goldman Sachs tror att det kan
komma mer miljardnedskrivningar i finanssektorn. Det framgår
av en genomgång av de stora investmentbankerna som Goldman
Sachs har gjort.

Citigroup kan komma att ta ytterligare 12 miljarder
dollar i nedskrivningar och Lehman Brothers kan rapportera
ytterligare 3,5 miljarder dollar i nedskrivningar, enligt
Goldman Sachs.

Vidare tror Goldman Sachs att Morgan Stanley kan
komma att ta 3,1 miljarder dollar i extra nedskrivningar och
Bear Stearns ytterligare 1,4 miljarder dollar.

Merrill Lynch kan behöva ta 4 miljarder dollar till i
nedskrivningar och JP Morgan ytterligare 3,4 miljarder
dollar, enligt Goldman Sachs.

Det skriver Bloomberg News

...

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs cut its rating on mid-cap banks to cautious, citing concerns over construction losses, the Fed rate-cut impact on floating rate loans and a lack of M&A activity. It downgraded Marshall & Ilsley  to neutral from buy, citing construction risk and below-average reserve.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#7

Goldman Sachs sänker andra men vem sänker Goldman Sachs

The world knows this quarter stinks for Goldman, as well as the others," says Glenn Schorr, a securities analyst at UBS.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"vem sänker Goldman"
UBS ser det ut som??!?!

"vem sänker Goldman"
UBS ser det ut som??!?!

Date Research Firm Action From To
14-Feb-08   Sandler O'Neill Downgrade Buy Hold
5-Feb-08      Oppenheimer Downgrade Outperform Perform
4-Feb-08     Punk, Ziegel & Co Upgrade Sell Mkt Perform
4-Dec-07    Punk, Ziegel & Co Downgrade Mkt Perform Sell
12-Nov-07  Punk, Ziegel & Co Upgrade Sell Mkt Perform
8-Nov-07    Wachovia Downgrade Outperform Mkt Perform
18-Jul-07    Punk, Ziegel & Co Downgrade Mkt Perform Sell
12-Apr-07  Deutsche Securities Initiated Buy
28-Mar-07  Lehman Brothers Initiated Equal-weight
5-Mar-07     Punk, Ziegel & Co Downgrade Accumulate Mkt Perform

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#9

Mest tänkte på mer nedskrivningar...

...

Prashant Bhatia, securities analyst at Citigroup, last week lowered his price target on Goldman, recommending that investors wait for "a potentially better entry point" -- meaning a lower price -- to buy the stock.

...

Given the tumble in leveraged-loan valuations, some analysts think the worst pain could be behind Goldman. But alarming news, like the bankruptcy filing of a company overwhelmed by its LBO-related debt, would raise the specter of more steep markdowns.

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Is $3 Billion Enough for Ambac?

So, the market was abuzz Friday afternoon with news of a potential bailout of Ambac Financial Group. As more clarity on what may be happening emerged over the weekend, the enthusiasm has eroded, replaced by a lot of head-scratching.

The main question would be, is that all there is? The proposed bailout, according to today?s Wall Street Journal, is for a $3 billion capital infusion from a consortium of banks with big exposures to debt that would stand to lose a lot of value if monoline insurers Ambac Financial and MBIA lose their triple-A rating.

"If the fate of the financial system only needs $3 billion to get ?fixed,? why did it take eight banks a month to negotiate coughing up $300 million each?" asked Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, in commentary written over the weekend.

After all, it?s estimated that Ambac has exposure of about $67 billion to collateralized debt obligations, which have lost a ton of value over the last several months as the underlying mortgage debt has been marked down in price due to increasing defaults and delinquencies. (The triple-AAA rated ABX Indexes, which measure default risk on a basket of subprime mortgages, are trading at 62 cents on the dollar, according to Markit. You heard that right ? 62 cents for what is ostensibly AAA-rated.) MBIA, meanwhile, has about $83 billion in exposure to this debt. The banks, in turn, are exposed through investments in these CDOs, which had garnered high ratings because of the insurance guarantee that the banks are now hoping to see preserved.

They?re hoping that the capital infusion will help Ambac keep its triple-A rating, which will allow it to continue to provide insurance to debt of this type (although they?re hardly insuring new debt offerings right now). Some think the chances aren?t great.

"Oh sure, the market may rally a bit, especially if Moody?s, Fitch, and the S&P keep their collective heads buried in the sand and reaffirm the AAA ratings on a mere $2 billion infusion, but long term the problem cannot go away until the entire package of CDOs guaranteed by the monolines is properly marked to market at a value close to zero," writes Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital, on his blog.

In a sense there?s an odd circle playing out here: The banks have exposure to a load of debt that has an intrinsic value largely based on the insurance guarantee from MBIA and Ambac. That guarantee is in doubt, so the banks are going to back-stop that with capital to the insurer ? to protect themselves. (Think of the old Hindu myth of cosmology ? MBIA and Ambac are the elephants holding up the earth, and the banks are the turtle holding up the elephants. What holds up the turtle, one might ask.)

The plan is "borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. Banks will conceivably lend money to a company that is the counter-party to their own positions," writes Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com. "They are protecting their own interests with hopes the credit contagion will be contained and ultimately lead to improvement."

But haven?t we seen this movie before? When Merrill Lynch first took a massive write-down back in November, the markdowns were reluctant ones - the firm wouldn?t even comment on whether the asset valuations were enough to sell in the market. They ended up later marking down those positions more aggressively ? to where the firm admitted it wouldn?t recover any value. The same may be in store here, but banks are still trying to compete in what Doug McIntyre of 24/7 Wall Street calls "part of a great race, one which the banks may lose."

"It is, from my perch, a respite rather than a resolution, a plan that will buy time rather than alleviate the underlying cause of stress," writes Mr. Harrison. "It is an encapsulation of the mindset that has dominated policy since the back of the tech bubble."

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 25, 2008-Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today took rating actions on several monoline bond insurers following additional stress tests with respect to their domestic nonprime mortgage exposure.
The financial strength ratings on XL Capital Assurance Inc. (XLCA) and XL Financial Assurance Ltd. (XLFA) were lowered to 'A-' from 'AAA' and remain on CreditWatch with negative implications;

The financial strength rating on Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. (FGIC) was lowered to 'A' from 'AA' and remains on CreditWatch with developing implications;

The 'AAA' financial strength rating on MBIA Insurance Corp. was removed from CreditWatch and a negative outlook was assigned;

The 'AAA' financial strength rating on Ambac Assurance Corp. was affirmed and remains on CreditWatch with negative implications; and The 'AAA' financial strength ratings on CIFG Guaranty, CIFG Europe, and CIFG Assurance North America Inc. were affirmed and retain a negative outlook.

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

sanslöst men vem är förvånat

"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette

Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's say MBIA Inc. has enough capital to withstand losses and justify its AAA rating. MBIA's debt investors aren't so convinced. Credit-default swaps indicating the risk that Armonk, New York-based MBIA's bond insurance unit won't be able to meet its obligations are trading at similar levels to companies such as homebuilder Pulte Homes Inc., which is rated 10 steps lower. Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's say MBIA Inc. has enough capital to withstand losses and justify its AAA rating. MBIA's debt investors aren't so convinced. Credit-default swaps indicating the risk that Armonk, New York-based MBIA's bond insurance unit won't be able to meet its obligations are trading at similar levels to companies such as homebuilder Pulte Homes Inc., which is rated 10 steps lower.

Moody´s kräver mer pengar annars?

Moody's still reviewing Ambac for possible downgrade

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Mycket väsen för ingenting.

#0

En vecka senare.se bild

Vem ska rädda marknaden ikväll?

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet