US is now in a recession

As one former senior financial official put in a private Davos? WEF session on systemic financial risk if we had today for the auto loans and credit cards an instrument similar to the ABX for pricing the value of subprime loans such form of market transparency would be self-destructive and lead banks to show massive additional losses, even larger than those warranted by the worsening fundamentals in the consumer credit market. In other terms, marking to market in a market where prices are discounted by illiquidity may be self destructive. 

det vill säga "information" är självdestruktivt, fina system bankirerna har

om spx970 berättar att börsen skall ner, ja då är det självdestruktivt

när galileo galilei berättar att alla stenar faller lika fort o att jorden roterar runt solen, ja då är det självdestruktivt

fine

Mvh werik1

What is happening is just the consequence of rational economic behavior. In most US states mortgages are non-recourse loans; thus, if a home owner defaults on its mortgage the bank take over the collateral - the home - via foreclosure but once that happens it cannot go after the borrower for any difference between the value of the original mortgage and the current value of the property.

The fact that most mortgages are de jure non-recourse (and the fact that even those mortgages that are de-jure with recourse are de-facto non-recourse as the legal and other costs of going after the borrowers are excessive) has powerful implications: it implies that the borrower has effectively a put option that allows him or her to walk away from its home whenever the value of the home is below the value of the mortgage, what is technically referred to as negative equity. 

varför skrev inte bankiren lagen så att husägaren får behålla huset ifall han behöver den

först trollar bankiren fram lånet med pennan o sedan tar han huset o kallar det för förlust ;-O)

fine

Mvh werik1

Eighth, and finally, the Anglo-Saxon financial system is in a severe crisis - as argued by Martin Wolf or - as argued here - this is the first crisis of financial globalization and securitization.

The reform of the financial system to reduce the risk of future destructive credit and asset bubbles is a massive undertaking that the G7 and the Financial Stability Forum have just started.

Formally senior financial official argue that everything is on the table and open to discussion and reform:

the flaws and wrong incentives of the securitization (originate and distribute) model, the conflicts of interests of the rating agencies, the poor risk management in financial institutions, the lack of true stress testing, the importance of liquidity risk, the wrong incentives deriving from the system of

compensation of bankers ????

and financial sector operators who have an agency problem relative to the firms? shareholders and an incentive to gamble for redemption, the lack of
information and transparency in the financial system,

the flaws of Basel 2, the problems of pricing and valuing complex structured finance products, as well as other issues. 

vad annat, lite korruption kanske

Mvh werik1

What will be the consequence of losses of over $1 trillion and, possibly, as high as $2 trillion?

That would wipe out most of the capital of most of the US banking system and lead most of US banks and mortgage lenders - that are massively exposed to real estate - to go belly up.

You would then have a systemic banking crisis of proportions that would be several orders of magnitude larger than the S&L crisis, a crisis that ended up with a fiscal bailout cost of over $120 billion dollars. And the worrisome part of this scenario is that - with home prices likely to fall by 20% or more - this scenario of systemic banking crisis is becoming increasingly likely.

kan inte bankirerna ställa upp med lite egna pengar o det som blir över kan bankirerna sedan använda till välgörenhet som bill gates o warren buffet 

sedan kan dessa gamla släkter sluta leka bankirer

Mvh werik1

vi skippar demokratin o röstar fram nya bankirer

har en favoritkandidat, rekomenderar varmt Paul Wolfowitz 

Mvh werik1

Paul Wolfowitzj The second child of Wayne Gates, kan det vara bill gates kusin

The second child of Wayne Gates native Jacob "Jack" Wolfowitzj (1910-1981)

Mvh werik1

bara tre triljoner $ bortkastade pengar o 1000 triljoner i goodwill

[edit] Wolfowitz's economic arguments pertaining to the Iraq War

On March 27, 2003, Wolfowitz told a Congressional panel that oil revenue earned by Iraq alone would pay for Iraq's reconstruction after the Iraq war; he testified: "The oil revenues of that country could bring between $50 and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three years.

 Now, there are a lot of claims on that money, but ? We are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction and relatively soon."[90][91][11] By March 2005, two years later, oil revenues were not paying for the occupation and reconstruction of Iraq, Wolfowitz's estimation of 50 to 100 billion US dollars had not materialized, and, in light of his miscalculation, detractors criticized his appointment to head of the World Bank.[92] 

 

Mvh werik1

The last two U.S. recessions in 1990-91 and 2001 lasted 8 months each. The current recession will last much longer and will be more severe for three reasons:
1.
We are experiencing the worst U.S. housing recession since the Great Depression and this housing recession is nowhere near bottoming out. Home prices will eventually fall - relative to their 2006 peak - by 20% to 30%. They have already fallen by almost 8% based on the Case-Shiller/S&P index.
2.
The U.S. consumer is shopped out, saving-less and debt burdened and now buffeted by oil prices close to $100 a barrel, a weakening labor market, weak income generation, falling consumer confidence, falling home values, falling home equity withdrawals, high debt, rising debt servicing ratios, a severe credit crunch and a sharp correction in the stock market that will turn into a bear market once the recession becomes deeper.
3.
The U.S. financial system and credit markets are experiencing their most severe crisis since the early 1980s. The problems are now not limited any longer to subprime mortgages but spreading across the whole spectrum of credit and financial markets. 

Mvh werik1

The billionaires who profit from oil need more solid gold toilets and million dollar chandeliers to put in their new jumbo jets, that''s all.
No big deal.
Being raped in the behind doesn''t hurt too much if it''s done slowly enough.
Most people will barely even notice. 
 

Mvh werik1

Learn from the fall of Rome, US warned 

Mvh werik1

Ron Paul: Bernanke Deliberately Destroying Dollar

lite annan ton än i rupert murdoch ägda wall street journal

Congressman schools Fed chairman again during House Financial Services Committee meeting, warns "history is against you" 

Mvh werik1

#9 aha 

"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette

#11 Bernanke höll ju med honom om att inflationen just nu ej är acceptabel. Men att säga att M3 = inflationen är ju fel, det torde gynekologen Ron Paul också inse?

Dollarn ska ned för att justera o-balanserna, det är den fria marknadens metod att justera läget.

Guldstandard? Vad är det underliggande värdet på guld? Mer värt än en limpa cigg i krig? =P 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#13

Detta är väl "austrian school" syn på inflation?

Inte så "fel"... 

Mvh, /Leif

Wells Fargo said it has identified more than 200 U.S. counties with troubled housing markets, showing how falling home prices and rising defaults are no longer concentrated in particular regions. Wells Fargo is tightening its lending standards in the affected markets effective Feb 29, in many cases by limiting the maximum size of loans as a percentage of home values. In some markets, it will not allow prospective purchasers to borrow more than 75 percent of the value of their homes. 

En del tycker att det dags att köpa om man vill agera som  contrarian

Zell said that although he doesn't try to pick bottoms in markets he believes housing has hit its nadir and will turn around this spring as inventory clears out.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#14 CPI, eller KPI, som det heter på svenska är ett mer konventionellt och använt mått på inflation. Den avviker ganska kraftigt mot M3.

Det kan hända att M3 stiger väl kraftigt nu, av förklarliga skäl. Men att likställa det med inflation på kort sikt blir ganska galet. Inverkan på US Dollarns köpkraft är dock uppenbar och globalt faller amerikaners köpkraft rejält. Så man kan hävda global inflation, ur USAs synvinkel. Inhemsk inflation är ännu så länge något hög, men okej i USA. Tack vare pågående deflationscykel som vi alla märker av i form av billiga prylar. Till USAs fördel talar ju även att globala priser ofta sätts i USD, varför köpkraften består och dollarns fall skjuts över på oss andra.

 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

GDP unrevised at 0.6% growth in fourth quarter
In revision, better trade figures offset weaker spending, investment

Gross domestic purchases - the total value of goods and services bought by U.S. residents - fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter, the first decline since the last recession quarter in 2001.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inga bra siffror...

räntan kommer att sänkas.

Initial jobless claims rise 19,000 to 373,000
Continuing claims highest since October 2005

Readings consistently higher than 350,000 would signal significant weakening in the labor market.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

  A just fine      se bild

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

var försiktiga :-)) 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

följande bild sammanfatar det mesta:-))

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Cash i amerikanska bolag  11% av market cap.

Jobbtillfällen historiskt i en recession är över 400k per månad. Idag knappt 350k.

Historiskt jättelåga räntor.

Dollarn eldar på exporten.

Världen växer med nästan 5%.

0.6% BNP tillväxt nu senaste pga lagerslimmande.

Finns nog stora möjligheter till att vi inte hamnar i en recession.

Mvh Corpsee

That '70s Show

One lesson of the inflationary 1970s: A country that will not accept the possibility of a small recession will end up having a big one when the politicians at last respond to the public's complaints about inflation. Instead of paying the relatively small cost of a possible recession, the public pays the much larger cost of sustained inflation and a deeper recession. And enduring the deeper recession is the only way to convince the public that the Fed has at last decided to slow inflation

 ...

But the rush to bring real short-term interest rates to negative values is an unseemly and dangerous response to pressures from Wall Street, Congress and the administration. The Federal Reserve became "independent" in 1913 so that it could resist pressures of that kind. And in the postwar years, although it often failed to do so, it was expected to safeguard the purchasing power of our money and maintain economic growth.

...

After 1985, Fed policy kept inflation and unemployment low. The result was 20 years of growth, and three of the longest peacetime expansions punctuated by short recessions.

We should not throw this policy away. Federal Reserve independence is a valuable right which should not be discarded. The Fed should insist on its obligation to prevent inflation and sustain growth, not sacrificing inflation to lower unemployment before the election.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Mark Thoma puts together another of his excellent "interviews" with Fed officials on his Economists View blog. The interviewee is Fed governor Frederic Mishkin.

"Does Stabilizing Inflation Contribute to Stabilizing Economic Activity?"

MT: Let?s get right to the big question. Does stabilizing inflation mean that the Fed is less focused on stable output and employment? FM: We might worry that, under some circumstances, the objectives of stabilizing inflation and economic activity could conflict, particularly in the short run. However, economic research over the past three decades suggests that such conflicts may not, in fact, be that serious. Indeed, stabilizing inflation and stabilizing economic activity are mutually reinforcing not only in the long run, but in the short run as well."

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

BERNANKE: VISSA BANKER KAN GÅ OMKULL, MEN INTE DE STORA

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Fedchefen Ben Bernanke befarar att
vissa amerikanska banker kan gå omkull till följd av den
nuvarande finanskrisen, men de stora bankerna är väl
kapitaliserade och de kommer inte fallera.
Det sade han inför senatens bankutskott på torsdagen.
Fedchefen sade att många banker kommer att behöva ta
in nytt kapital. De stora bankerna har tillräckligt med
kapital för att förbli solventa, men även stora banker kan
behöva ta in mer kapital./PD


#CODES T/CEN T/MACRO 

 

#25

Nämnde denna länk 26/02

De tar hand om dem 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Recession bull off uncle sam.

Bush claims no recession for US

Vad tror ni att han skulle säga... att usa är in recession... 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Har ar lite mer ved till brasan. 

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/pdf/07_12_04_News.pdf

Mvh usdollar

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Index från inköpscheferna i
Chicago sjönk till 44,5 i februari, från oreviderade 51,5
månaden före.

Det rapporterar Bloomberg News.

Analytikerna hade räknat med ett index på 49,5,
enligt Bloomberg News genomsnittsprognos.

Prisindex sjönk till 79,4 i februari från 81,7
månaden före.

Produktionsindex sjönk till 46,5 från 51,3,

 index över nya order steg till 48,8 från 44,7, medan orderboksindex
sjönk till 38,3 från 48,0.

Lagerindex sjönk till 46,0 från 51,1.

Sysselsättningsindex sjönk till 33,5 från 47,

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

U.S. Consumer Spending Picked Up Along With Inflation

``There is no growth in consumption except to keep up with price increases,'' said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. ``Consumers are clearly hard-pressed to maintain their standard of living and are cutting back.''  

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

video 1

Bernie Schaeffer,The Federal Reserve needs to step up even more to keep the U.S. out of a bear market and recession. 

Och han säger att vi inte befinner oss in bear market

video 2

Media Sentiment: The major media as a contrarian indicator for current market sentiment

Video 3

Hedge Fund Jackals: Examining the impact of hedge funds on the market after a regulation change last year

Video 4

Outlook for Gold: Looking at the opportunities and sentiment surrounding a couple select gold stocks.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska centralbanken,
Fed, skall generellt sett vara försiktig med att lägga sig i
det ekonomiska läget för tidigt och istället låta marknaderna
spela ut varandra.

Det sade William Poole, Fed-chef i St Louis, på
fredagen, skriver Bloomberg News.

William Poole, 70 år, avgår från Fed 31 mars och har
tidigare sagt att han inte kommer att delta i FOMC-mötet 18
mars.

Fed?s Poole: We Left Rates at 1% Too Long

The Federal Reserve left interest rates at 1% too long earlier this decade, one of the policymakers behind that decision said Friday.

"With the benefit of hindsight ? and the importance of the word ?hindsight? should be emphasized ? it is not hard to argue that the [Fed] was too slow to raise the federal funds target after taking the target down to 1% in 2003," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Friday.

He added, "Also with hindsight, the [Fed] was too slow to start raising the fed funds target in 1999 after dropping it by 75 basis points to deal with the turmoil created by Long-Term Capital Management." A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

Many economists say the Fed erred either by lowering the target to 1%, or by taking too long to raise it over subsequent years. But Mr. Poole?s comments stand out in that he was a member of the Fed?s policy panel, the Federal Open Market Committee, when the decision was made.

If such concerns are shared by other FOMC members, then it could weigh in favor of raising rates relatively soon after the current credit market turmoil passes. "In five years or so, we will see whether the FOMC withdrew cuts in the fed funds rate target on an appropriate schedule," Mr. Poole said.

Mr. Poole was a nonvoting member in 2003 when the target was lowered to 1% from 1.25% (it had been 6.5% in early 2001). He was a voting member in 2004 when it was left at 1% until June, when the Fed began to raise it in a series of quarter-percentage point moves, eventually reaching 5.25% in 2006. He voted with the committee, then chaired by Alan Greenspan, at each meeting in 2004. He was a non-voting member in 1999.

Mr. Poole retires soon and won?t be attending any more FOMC meetings. His last vote was in January when he dissented against the emergency 0.75 percentage point rate cut on Jan. 22, arguing the committee could have waited nine days to move at its regularly scheduled meeting.

Mr. Poole, in his speech in New York, to the Monetary Policy Forum, a joint Wall Street-academic conference, didn?t explain why he thought the Fed should have raised the rate sooner. Others have argued the low rates helped fuel a bubble in housing whose reversal led to the current crisis in credit markets. That view has taken some of the shine off Mr. Greenspan?s 18-year record as chairman. Mr. Greenspan has argued that the low rate policy was necessary to eliminate the risk of deflation, that is falling prices, and the housing bubble resulted from global forces, not Fed policy.

Mr. Poole made the remark in a speech discussing the possibilities that interest rate cuts designed to cushion the economy from financial turmoil can cause investors to take on excessive risk, a phenomenon called "moral hazard."

Mr. Poole said the Fed?s 2.25 points of rate cuts since August have produced little moral hazard. "The Fed?s actions in recent months have not prevented many financial firms from having to write down the value of billions of dollars worth of assets."

"The problem in these [1999 and 2001] episodes, however, was not related to moral hazard but to policy judgments of the usual sort of trying to strike the right balance between inflation and unemployment concerns," Mr. Poole said

How Important Is Moral Hazard?

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"Personal income increased $32.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $46.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.9 billion, or 0.4 percent. In December, personal income increased $54.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $46.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $32.0 billion, or 0.3 percent, based on revised estimates.

Men varför?

Läs mer här

"The January change in personal income was boosted by several special factors. Bonus payments and gains on the exercise of stock options boosted private wage and salary disbursements; pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel boosted government wage and salary disbursements; and cost-of-living adjustments to several federal transfer payment programs boosted personal current transfer receipts. The January change was reduced by a decrease in Medicare part D prescription drug benefit payments, annual adjustments to personal contributions for government social insurance (a subtraction in calculating personal income), and by lump-sum social security benefit payments that had boosted December personal income. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $27.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, in January, after increasing $47.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, in December. These special factors are discussed more fully below. " 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

How a Bubble Stayed Under the Radar

Alan Greenspan, a very serious student of the markets, didn?t see it, and, moreover, he didn?t see the stock market bubble of the 1990s, either. In his 2007 autobiography, "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World," he talks at some length about his suspicions in the 1990s that there was irrational exuberance in the stock market. But in the end, he says, he just couldn?t figure it out: "I?d come to realize that we?d never be able to identify irrational exuberance with certainty, much less act on it, until after the fact." 

...

Three economists, Sushil Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer and Ivo Welch, in a classic 1992 article, defined what they call "information cascades" that can lead people into serious error. They found that these cascades can affect even perfectly rational people and cause bubblelike phenomena. Why? Ultimately, people sometimes need to rely on the judgment of others, and therein lies the problem. The theory provides a framework for understanding the real estate turbulence we are now observing.


...

It is clear that just such an information cascade helped to create the housing bubble. And it is now possible that a downward cascade will develop ? in which rational individuals become excessively pessimistic as they see others bidding down home prices to abnormally low levels.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

What Interest Rates Say About Recession

The debate rages day after day among the financial commentators. Are we in a recession or just a slowdown? Is a recession yet to come? Will it be a mild recession or a bad one?.....  

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
mvh
S Borin

Ford, GM, Toyota sell fewer cars in February

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Buffett says U.S. in recession, stocks not cheap 

Mvh werik1

#37

Warren Buffett Answers Your Emails on Squawk Box: Transcript (Part 1

Warren Buffett Answers Your Emails on Squawk Box: Transcript (Part 2)

Warren Buffett Answers Your Emails on Squawk Box: Transcript (Part 3)

Warren Buffett Answers Your Emails on Squawk Box: Transcript (Part 4)

Warren Buffett Answers Your Emails on Squawk Box: Transcript (Part 5)

...

den fortsätter till 11

...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

BUFFETT: I didn't see it--in '73 and '74, I didn't see how bad things were going to get. I kept buying more as I got worse, but I--if I'd seen in '73 what was going to happen in '74, I wouldn't have bought anything in '73. You can't predict. We don't try and time anything or predict. We just look for where there are good values, and if we find them, we buy them, and if we don't, we don't buy anything. 
 

Mvh werik1

BUFFETT: But it shows you--when things get that complex, you're going to have a lot of problems. And CDO squared--I figured out, on a CDO squared you had to read 750,000 pages to understand the instruments that were underneath it.

QUICK: Oh, my gosh.

BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, you start with the RMB, that's the residential mortgage-backed securities, and that would have 30 tranches. And then you'd take--and that would be a 300-page document--you'd take a tranche from each one of that and create a CDO, 50 of those times three--300, you know, it becomes 15,000. Then you take a CDO squared with 50 more, and now you're up to 750,000 pages. QUICK: You have to read through it. 

 

Mvh werik1

The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

The verdict is in. The Fed's emergency rate cuts in January have failed to halt the downward spiral towards a full-blown debt deflation. Much more drastic action will be needed. 


"I never thought I would see anything like this in my life," said James Steele, an HSBC economist in New York. 

 

Mvh werik1

No sane mortal needs to know what term-auction means, except that it too became a tool of the US credit alchemists. Banks briefly used the market as laboratory for conjuring long-term loans at Alan Greenspan's giveaway short-term rates. It has come unstuck.

Next in line is the $45trillion derivatives market for credit default swaps (CDS 

Mvh werik1

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Protektionismen i EU, USA och
världen tilltar och riskerar leda till att resurser låses i
verksamheter som saknar långsiktig bärkraft.

Det sade handelsminister Ewa Björling på tisdagen i
samband med att hon presenterade en handelspolitisk
deklaration i riksdagen.

Ewa Björling betonade återkommande att Sverige inom
EU är en tydlig röst för frihandel, som leder till ökad
tillväxt och välstånd.

Hon sade även att Sverige verkar för att under våren
få till stånd ett genombrott som gör det möjligt att slutföra
WTO-förhandlingarna i Doha-rundan.

Angående Doha-rundan sade Ewa Björling att "det som
är positivt med valkampanjen i USA är att den nuvarande
administrationen är stressade för att hinna färdigt".

"Vi vet inte hur det kommer att gå i valet, men då
man följer debatten blir man ganska orolig", sade hon.

Handelsministern konstaterade även att John McCain är
den enda frihandelsvännen av de kvarvarande kandidaterna, att
Hillary Clinton sagt sig vilja "stoppa Doha-rundan i
byrålådan" och att Barack Obama är mer oprövad varför det är
svårt att veta hur mycket som är retorik.

Enligt Ewa Björling är den tilltagande
protektionismen även märkbar på möten i EU:

"Många länder vill skydda sig själva. Det är i precis
motsatt riktning vi ska verka", sade hon.

Som förklaring till den ökande protektionismen angav
Ewa Björling i första hand att länder är mer nationalistiska
än de är EU-vänner, men även att det handlar om att bevaka
sina egna intressen.

"För länder söderut i EU handlar det om
jordbruksfrågor", sade hon

mvh spx970

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Bush denies recession.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska ekonomin står
inför betydande utmaningar, som kan få till följd att
nedgången i ekonomin blir värre än befarat, trots den
amerikanska centralbankens räntesänkningar.

Det uppgav Fed-ledamöten Frederic Mishkin i ett tal
på tisdagen, enligt AFX News.

En av förklaringarna till det bekymmersamma läget är
att den amerikanska husmarknaden kan komma att försämras
ytterligare, menade Fredric Mishkin.

Under andra halvåret väntar sig dock Fed-ledamöten
att investeringarna och konsumenternas spenderande ska ta
fart, bland annat tack vare ett stimulanspaket som kongressen
beslutat om.

Han medgav även att inflationstrycket i nuläget är på
uppsidan, men framhöll samtidigt att det kunde ha sin
förklaring i oväntat lågt prisutfall på bland annat kläder
och läkemedel i tidigare inflationsrapporter under fjolåret.

Över tiden väntas den amerikanska kärninflationen
återgå till kring 2 procent. Om så inte blir fallet kommer
Fed att hamna i en väldigt besvärlig situation, menade
Fredric Mishkin.

Senare sade han även att nedåtrisken i ekonomin är
betydande, trots att prognoserna för i år redan förutspår en
trög ekonomisk tillväxt./

mvh sx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Fed's Beige Book: "Generally downbeat" 



Consumer Spending:

Reports on retail spending were generally downbeat, although Boston, St. Louis, and Dallas described sales as mixed and Kansas City reported that consumer spending was "largely unchanged" since the previous survey period. The majority of Districts characterized sales as below plan, downbeat, weak, or having softened.

Manufacturing:

Reports on the manufacturing sector were mixed but, on the whole, subdued. New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas indicated that production or shipments were sluggish or falling. Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco characterized activity as varying across industries. Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago indicated stable levels or trends. Only St. Louis noted a strengthening relative to prior reports.

Residential Real Estate:

Residential real estate markets were generally weak over the last couple of months. Sales were low in every District with very few local exceptions ... Districts that reported home prices all saw overall declines

And on CRE:

The markets for office and retail space showed signs of a slowdown in several Districts. Office vacancies were reported up, and leasing volumes down, in Manhattan, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Memphis, portions of Maine and Rhode Island, and Las Vegas. Districts indicated that office vacancies held steady in Boston and the Carolinas, and were down in Philadelphia and in the Minneapolis and St. Louis Districts; however, contacts in the Boston and Philadelphia Districts and see some emerging slack.
...

Retail vacancy was reported up in the Minneapolis District and retail space demand was described as slow in the Chicago District. Demand for industrial space was described as either "firm" or "flat" in the Districts commenting on that sector.

mer här

Beige Book March 5, 2008

Here is the December 1990 Beige Book (to compare to a previous recession). 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

en svensk variant där trenden med högre bottnar är bruten men fortfarande över 50

.råvarupriserna däremot.. 

S&P: "Recessionary pressures" to Impact Housing

There are some negative comments on housing and the economy in a Standard & Poor's press release today downgrading Washington Mutual S&P Cuts Rtgs On WAMU; Put On Watch Neg

"These rating actions reflect our expectations for a more severe residential mortgage credit cycle than we had anticipated at the start of 2008," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Victoria Wagner. "We now believe that the severity of losses on all residential mortgages will be higher that we had thought and that the weak housing market will now be a longer cycle. This adds to the time frame to resolve foreclosed properties and the cost to carry these nonperforming assets."

And on recessionary pressures:

Our overall view of the recessionary pressures in the economy is also now more negative. We expect that this change in the external environment will push loan losses and loan delinquencies much higher than we previously factored into the WAMU ratings ...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den icke-finansiella delen av
ekonomin är vid god hälsa, men för hushållen är situationen
"stressad".

Det sade den avgående Fed-chefen i St, Louis William
Poole, på torsdagen, uppger Bloomberg News.

"Det är klart att hushållen är stressade. Vi vet att
sparandet har varit lågt de senaste åren. Vi vet att pressen
från bolån är en stor börda och vi vet att huspriserna
faller, så i många hushåll minskar tillgångarna. Vi vet även
att det finns mycket kreditkortsskulder i många hushåll.
Sammantaget så finns det mycket stress i hushållen", sade
Louis William men lade till att utanför finanssektorn ser är
ekonomin vid "ganska god hälsa".

Louis Poole lade till att det är "möjligt" att den
amerikanska ekonomin går in i en recession.

Han sade även att krisen på bolånemarknaden ännu inte
är över och att "vad vi har lärt oss har varit smärtfyllt och
dyrt, och smärtan är ännu inte över".

Louis Poole sade även att penningpolitisk policy
alltid är en balansakt och att det måste "finnas en balans
mellan arbetsmarkandsrisk, finansmarknadsrisk och
inflationsrisk.

"En penningpolitisk policy som koncentrerar sig
exklusivt på det största problemet för dagen, kommer
antagligen att ångra det", sade han./ED

Och Då är det bäst att Bernanke och dem andra slutar sänka räntan för de kommer att ångra det...

Att Bernanke ärvde det sämsta möjliga situationen på grund av Alan Greenspans policy betyder inte han har inget ansvar om han fortsätter sänka räntan medan inflationen tickar uppåt.

Att hoppas på att priserna kommer att falla är em illusion och kommer att straffa sig

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Lehman Brothers has joined the chorus of economists who say the economy is sliding into a recession.

"We now believe the tax rebate checks will arrive too late to prevent an outright recession. We look for modestly negative GDP growth in both" the first and second quarters of 2008, chief economist Ethan Harris wrote in a research note.

Lehman Brothers joins economists from Global Insight, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, The Northern Trust and Merrill Lynch in forecasting a recession.

Recession is often defined as at least two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the private outfit that dates recessions, doesn?t use the two-quarter definition. It says "a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

"The economy is likely to experience an extended period of very weak growth, a rising unemployment rate and significant further Fed rate cuts," Mr. Harris wrote. "This is a bigger, but more gradual, shock to the economy than either the 1990 or 2001 recession."

Lehman?s announcement came on the heels of today?s unexpected drop in nonfarm payrolls, but Mr. Harris said cited many factors for the change in outlook.

"The construction recession appears to have moved into the non-residential sector. Soft data like the purchasing manager?s indices and consumer confidence have fallen into recession territory. Energy prices continue to surprise on the upside and with wage growth flat, consumption is being squeezed. Talk of stagflation is another blow to confidence. Most important, asset markets continue to weaken," he wrote. -Phil Izzo

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#50

Var vi inte redan där? Tänkte mest pga rubriken? 

Mvh Corpsee

the fed the feeding

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"With the second straight monthly decline, the non-farm payrolls report is flashing the recession signal. Since 1960, every back to back reading of a negative jobs number has coincided with a recession." 

What's That Hissing Sound?

March 7, 2008
By John Mauldin

As an aside, the unemployment rate dropped by 0.1%. How can it drop if we lost jobs? Basically, because the unemployment rate is estimated from a survey called the household survey. They literally call hundreds of thousands of homes and ask if anyone is working or looking for work. If you are not looking for work, then you are not counted as unemployed. This month the household survey showed a drop of 255,000 jobs (quite the difference from the headline survey); but an even larger number of people, 450,000, are not looking for a job, presumably because they do not expect to find one. So, even though fewer people are working, the data shows the unemployment rate falling. Go figure.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

There's been a survey in the sidebar for a little while now about an intermeeting rate cut and it was about to be taken down until Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher showed up on Bloomberg just a little while ago. Here are the results to date:

se bild

The next FOMC meeting is on March 18th and the current tally stands at more than two-to-one in favor of another "emergency rate cut". That sounded like a good bet two weeks ago, but not so much in the last ten days - that is, until yesterday.

men

"Fed's Fisher Downplays Speculation of Emergency Rate Cut" 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 On Friday, Larry Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, said the economy is "currently in recession" and warned that it was likely to be severe in its length and depth.

I believe we are facing the most serious combination of macroeconomic and financial stresses that the US has faced in a generation - and possibly, much longer than that," he said, addressing an annual economics summit organised by Stanford University in California.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Economists Still Not Calling For Recession

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#57 Beror väl på vem du frågar. De som låg lägst i Bloombergs månatliga undersökning låg på c:a -1,7% BNP i årstakt för H1 2008.

Finns en tröghet här och ett positivt bias att ta hänsyn till.

I botten (de med lägst estimat, som spår recession) återfinner vi bl a University of Michigan, Moody's, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros., Morgan Stanely...

Så även de stora/tunga namnen tror på recession första halvåret.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Bear Stearns CEO: No Liquidity Crisis for Firm   kort video. Tror vi han!?  Njae 

Mvh Jamenvisst

The worst market crisis in 60 years    By George Soros 080122

The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility

Inte dagsfärsk men jag hade missat den. Finns även 1 videointervju på sidan från davos 

Mvh Jamenvisst

1)

Video: Ecri still waiting for recession

2)

UCLA experts don't buy recession

In staking out the contrarian position, Leamer noted that UCLA bucked other forecasters in 2001 by correctly predicting that year's recession.

"We got it right, and we stood alone back then," he said. In jest, he added later that he had "submitted my resignation letter, in the event I am wrong."

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#61

Domen föll nyss 

ECRI: U.S. "unambiguously" in a recession

The United States is "unambiguously" in a recession, a New York-based forecasting group said on Thursday, citing a nine-month decline in its weekly measure of the economy.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

När var usa senast i en recession ?

#63

En liten karta över de senaste ca 50 åren, med som det bedömts bear market och recessionsperioder.

Karta 

Vad hände efter 1985 i usa? GDP har blivit stabilare och inte haft någon kvartalsförändring högre än 5% sen dess.

#65

Greenspan, -87 till -06 i fed, har nog haft ett och annat finger i grytan för att känna av att temperaturen varit lagom och vid behov justerat energin till och från på plattan. Nu sitter Bernanke och vi får se hur känsliga fingrar han och fed har i framtiden. Visserligen råder de inte allena över allt, det finns annat som påverkar GDP. Politik, omvärld, mm.

Man är för liten för denna stora gryta och utnämnda kockar får krydda bäst de kan, det är bara att ha bra smaklökar så att man kan känna om det är surt eller sött.

#64 Bra länk, tack! 

Bernanke är en av de främsta experterna på "The Great Depression" som inträffade i USA och omvärlden kring 1929. Han har studerat hur och varför det blev som det blev och ämnar inte göra om samma misstag som FED gjorde den gången.

Å andra sidan har vi Austrian school som hävdar att det var expansionen av penningmängden under 20-talet som var roten till Depressionen som följde... 

Då hade vi en kraftig expansion av penningmängden, följt av en depression där penningmängden minskade rejält samtidigt som FED var passiv och bankerna föll som käglor i brist på likviditet.

Nu har vi haft en expansion av krediter och penningmängd, följt av en recession där FED försöker att pumpa systemet med likviditet för att undvika bank failures.

Om några år vet vi svaret :) Rätt eller fel.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Buffett Sees "Long, Deep" Recession

The United States is already in a recession and it will be longer as well as deeper than many people expect, U.S. investor Warren Buffett said in an interview published in German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday.

...

Wenn Warren Buffett spricht, merkt die gesamte Wirtschaftswelt auf: Im SPIEGEL-Gespräch spricht der legendäre US-Multimilliardär Warren Buffett über außer Kontrolle geratene Märkte und eine anhaltende Rezession in den USA. Zudem verriet er, was er in Deutschland für Pläne hat.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Från bloggen dr housing bubble

"For those of you thinking we are at a bottom, there are futures traders that would like to disagree. In fact, the futures markets are pricing in a 28.3% further drop for Los Angeles by November of 2010. The housing futures contracts are also pricing in 24.8% of that drop in the next year! You may want to take a look at some of the other housing futures over at housing derivatives that compiles a list periodically. Here?s a little rundown of the April 2008 published future prices:

November 2010

Las Vegas: -28.9%

Miami: -21.9%

New York: -15.2%

San Francisco: -25.6%

Chicago: -12.0%

Bottom line? More pain ahead at least from people that are putting their money where their mouth is. Think housing will go up? Go ahead and put some money down." 
 

Vh Björta

#70 Intressant med futures i bostadsmarknaden. Kan man ju i praktiken köpa ett hem när som helst utan att behöva begrunda tajmingen och dras in i speckulationshysterin. Genom att korta futures och därmed neutralisera sig.

Finns något liknande i Sverige? 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Video

Foreclosed and homeless.

...........................................

From Boston Fed President Eric S. Rosengren: Current Challenges in Housing and Home Loans: Complicating Factors and the Implications for Policymakers .

To date, credit problems have been focused on large financial institutions, many of whom have shown the capacity to raise new capital. However, should the challenges in housing continue, problems could expand beyond securitized assets to have an impact on the nonsecuritized assets held by smaller banking institutions. It is possible that these institutions may not be able to tap additional capital quite as easily as larger institutions, and if so they may be forced to constrain other lending to address any losses. So I leave you with the cautionary note that while small and medium sized businesses have not generally experienced significant problems with credit availability to date, further deterioration in housing markets, if it occurs, could carry over and begin to impact lenders who serve such borrowers.

...

Several lessons from the historical comparison can be highlighted. First, should the economy worsen and suffer a period of significant job losses, the housing problem could become much more severe. Second, past episodes of elevated foreclosures lingered well after the peak in foreclosures had passed, indicating that the duration of today?s situation may be longer than some are anticipating. Third, because the current problems have been concentrated in vulnerable low- and moderate-income areas with a prevalence of multi-unit properties, such multi-unit properties will be a more important public policy issue in the current situation.

...

? The legal structure for securitizations and mortgage-servicing agreements clearly did not foresee the widespread emergence of distressed borrowers, delinquencies, and foreclosures that are being experienced. Changes to servicing agreements and securitization structures that allow more flexibility during times of duress and also address servicers? liability concerns are necessary. Since different investors in a mortgage-backed security have different incentives, more clearly defining the governance of these securities would make it easier during difficult times to make modifications that are in the borrower?s, servicer?s, and investor?s interests.

...

Fortunately, aggressive monetary and fiscal policy actions have been taken to help mitigate some of the downside risk. These policies will likely result in some pick up in economic activity in the second half of this year, which should help to stabilize the housing market.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Technically not in recession...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

2008 Recession: That?s All, Folks?

Macroeconomic Advisers, the forecasting firm, estimates that economic output declined at a 0.5% annual rate in April. That?s under its monthly measure of gross domestic product, which is modeled on the government?s formula for quarterly GDP. The April decline followed an annualized gain of 4.5% in March, a decline of 10.1% in February and a 7.5% gain in January.

Is that enough to settle the question of whether the economy is in a recession? Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg, who has been unwavering in his recession call, seems to think so. His note to clients ? titled "That?s all folks ? Real GDP peaked in January" ? uses the monthly figure to support his view that January represented the peak of the business cycle.

"Do not be fooled by that 0.9% first quarter GDP print ? it is masking an erosion in activity beneath the veneer of quarterly averages," he writes. In a research note last month, he sought to knock down the view that positive GDP growth means there?s no recession. The recessions that started in the first quarter of 1980 and the third quarter of 1990 both came with GDP growth, followed by contractions (as he expects this year).

The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." The group, generally considered the recession arbiter, says that decline is "normally visible" in GDP, income, employment, industrial production and wholesale/retail sales. Most of those figures have peaked, and few look very good right now. -Sudeep Reddy

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

MVH SPX970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

One on One with Nouriel Roubini, Economics Professor at NYU's Stern School of Business

First of all the Fed kept interest rates too low for too long and created the housing bubble. Secondly the Fed and the other regulators were asleep at the wheel and allowed all these toxic mortgages to be created without controlling it. Three, there was plenty of greed and excessive risk taking on Wall Street. And four, the rating agencies had major conflicts of interest because they were being paid by those that were supposed to be rating. So the blame is to be shared by many different culprits. 

...

On Bloomberg video this morning Roubin is predicting a very long and painful recession dead ahead.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#75 spx970 funderat på att starta en ny finanstidning? Jag är med... 

#76

Nej, jag skulle aldrig hinna...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

jodå med din insamlingskapacitet skulle du komma långt 

Tack sailor... 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Roubini: Worst yet to come 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Sista inlägg för denna sträng...

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

undrar vad metod tycker