A dead bank walking

Thornburg Mortgage Asset Corp

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

JPMorgan Chase & Co

Bättre

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Washington Mutual Inc

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Fannie Mae

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Helt nåt annat men allt hänger ihop,,,

Ford Motor Company

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

 General Motors

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Skrämmande! 

Mvh Nadeem

Ben Bernanke why he feels the need for such secrecy. Did the country get in this mess because we had too much transparency?

LOL. Good one! The financial system does not exist without secrecy, period.

secret , classified , desinformation, lies, , deception, ingnorance, corruption, etc

Mvh werik1

mera repetition 

Mvh werik1

LONDON: Carlyle Capital, the investment fund linked to the private equity company Carlyle Group, said Friday that it was "considering all available options" after it received further margin calls, prompting some analysts to warn that more funds could struggle to meet increasingly tighter margin requirements

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

A warning by JPMorgan of a "systemic margin call" on credit markets seemed to be getting traders' attention, while the memory of Friday's especially weak jobs report still lingered.

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Federal Reserve announced today an expansion of its securities lending program. Under this new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), the Federal Reserve will lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities to primary dealers secured for a term of 28 days (rather than overnight, as in the existing program) by a pledge of other securities, including federal agency debt, federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS. The TSLF is intended to promote liquidity in the financing markets for Treasury and other collateral and thus to foster the functioning of financial markets more generally. As is the case with the current securities lending program, securities will be made available through an auction process. Auctions will be held on a weekly basis, beginning on March 27, 2008. The Federal Reserve will consult with primary dealers on technical design features of the TSLF.

Fed's Kroszner on Risk Management

[I]n particular cases, senior management was not fully aware of the firm's latent concentrations to U.S. subprime mortgages, because they did not realize that in addition to the subprime mortgages on their books, they had exposure through off-balance sheet vehicles holding mortgages, through claims on counterparties exposed to subprime, and through certain complex securities.

Bank stocks rally as Fed offers to swap super-safe Treasury bonds for mortgage debt

Banks are struggling, and Peta said rather than lending the capital they raise the companies may use it to bolster their own balance sheets. This is good for the companies themselves, but will not help the financial markets, he said.«That's the equivalent of taking money and stuffing it under the mattress,» he said. «What we're looking for is money to be lent.

se bild: money man

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Face-Slap Theory

The scariest thing I?ve read recently is a speech given last week by Tim Geithner, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Mr. Geithner came as close as a Fed official can to saying that we?re in the midst of a financial meltdown.

...

Some observers worry that the Fed is taking over the banks? financial risk. But what worries me more is that the move seems trivial compared with the size of the problem: $200 billion may sound like a lot of money, but when you compare it with the size of the markets that are melting down ? there are $11 trillion in U.S. mortgages outstanding ? it?s a drop in the bucket.

,,,

The only way the Fed?s action could work is through the slap-in-the-face effect: by creating a pause in the selling frenzy, the Fed could give hysterical markets a chance to regain their sense of perspective. And to be fair, that has worked in the past.

But slap-in-the-face only works if the market?s problems are mainly a matter of psychology. And given that the Fed has already slapped the market in the face twice, only to see the financial crisis come roaring back, that?s hard to believe.

The third time could be the charm. But I doubt it. Soon, we?ll probably have to do something real about reducing the risks investors face. '

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Sterilized intervention, big time

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Glöm inte att följa dollars forsät fall...

The dollar fell to a record below $1.55 per euro on concern that the Federal Reserve's plan to provide funds to banks won't be enough to break the gridlock in money-market lending and stem credit losses.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

A Wall Street Journal report suggesting that home-equity loans are the next big problem and a profit warning from Humana (HUM) are also in focus

The problems are already causing trouble for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., and are expected to hit other large banks when first-quarter earnings results are released next month. The pain is likely to deepen through the rest of 2008, sapping capital levels and resulting in tighter lending standards as banks try to reduce their risk.

"These losses are well beyond what we would have modeled...and continue to get worse," said Charles Scharf, head of J.P. Morgan's retail business.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#16

Humana (HUM)

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Angående feds agerande:

Michael Pento of Delta Global Advisors notes that the Fed?s plan appears to be "increasing the money supply and real estate loan volume until home prices cease contracting. This is all there is to its ultimate plan for rescuing the economy and balance sheets of investment banks.

Put another way, the Fed is trying to bail out certain investment banks on the back of the currency and at the expense of savers- simple cronyism in its most base form."

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

US TSYS/RP/RESEARCH:

Citigroup bond analysts noted "trading
liquidity in many (bond) products now resembles 'pass the hot potato'..
In the last 2 stages of this liquidity crisis, the liquidity of trading
markets has been directly impacted. Dealers who bid-to-lose end up
owning assets. Given the elevated volatility of spreads during this
illiquid time, even dealers bidding back find their margin of safety may
be gone in a few days. Trading liquidity grinds to a halt and traders
now have every incentive to pass the hot potato on as soon as possible.
Financing risky assets on a longer-term basis is almost irrelevant to
the current trading illiquidity. Final Thoughts - we hope we're wrong,
but if we're right then the next few weeks will be very interesting. The
ultimate judgment of the degree of success of the TSLF will be conveyed
by market reaction. We certainly hope that we are wrong in our analysis
and that this TSY-for-AAA MBS swap facility works its magic." (More) 

 

Mvh werik1

US TSYS/RP/RESEARCH: Further to 14:51 pm ET:

Citigroup bond
analysts further added that "unfortunately if the TSLF is, as we
suspect, not going to do the trick, then the Fed will have lost more
valuable time as the market's downward spiral continues. This may
necessitate even greater and more forceful action by the Fed further
down the road. The next few weeks will certainly be challenging. March
is quarter-end for most banks, and also the yearend for Japanese
institutions. Liquidity (both financing and trading) is likely to be
more challenged into the end of March. Stay tuned." 
 

Mvh werik1

BANKING: The Fed has issued its quarterly report on the assets and
liabilities of major foreign branches of U.S. banks, showing as of the
end of last year, U.S. banks had assets of $414 bln in the U.K., $4.9
bln in Canada, $89 bln in the Caymans, $289 million in mainland China,
$3.4 bln in Hong Kong, $15 bln in Japan and $13.2 billion in Mideast oil
exporting countries. On the liability side, its $402 bln in the UK, $4.8
bln in Canada, $46.5 bln in the Caymans, $9.5 bln in mainland China,
$33.1 bln in Hong Kong, $26 bln in Japan and $38.4 bln in Mideast oil
exporting countries 

Mvh werik1

#0

Leverage Licks Carlyle

"The problem isn't one of liquidity. It's one of solvency: loans banks made (especially through the derivatives market) are worth less now than when they made the loans. Because they made way (100 ways) too many of them, banks in general have no capital left. You can't make loans if you don't have capital."  

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Irish banks may need life-support as property prices crash

 We are going to see banks on life-support with very big bail-outs. The precedent for this is what happened in the Nordic countries in the early 1990s when they had to take over the banks. We may have to do something similar," he said.

Two of Sweden's largest banks were nationalised before being nursed back to health and refloated. The Nordic rescue is seen as a model of how to tackle a banking crisis. However, Sweden succeeded only after it left the ERM's fixed exchange system and regained control of its monetary instruments.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Bear Stearns 

 inga kommentarer

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Fed går in för att hjälpa...

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have agreed to provide, as necessary, secured funding to Bear Stearns Cos. for an initial period of up to 28 days.

J.P. Morgan is also "working closely with Bear Stearns on securing permanent financing or other alternatives for the company."

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Efter att ha handlats i en
avvaktande tendens på fredagsförmiddagen svängde
Stockholmsbörsen till ordenligt under eftermiddagen.

Först kom överraskande låg KPI-statistik för februari
från USA vilket fick börserna i hela Europa att utöka sina
uppgångar samtidigt som terminerna för USA-indexen
återhämtade tidigare nedgångar.

Sedan kom uppgiften om att Bear Stearns nått en
överenskommelse med JP Morgan och Federal Bank of New York
för att få nödvändig finansiering i en initial period upp
till 28 dagar.

Bear Stearns aktie steg först i förhandeln och drog
då med sig börserna upp ytterligare men backade sedan
tillbaka och när den riktiga handeln drog igång i New York
föll aktien fritt och var efter en halvtimme ner nära 50
procent ned. Aktien hade innan dagens öppning tappat 25
procent på en månad på oro för just investmentbankens
finanser. Bear Stearns var den största utgivaren av bolån
under förra året efter Lehman Brothers.

"Problemet är att de gått ut många gånger och sagt
att de inte haft likviditetsproblem. Marknaden är nu orolig
för att det kan vara liknande med fler banker", sade Michael
Nasto, senior trader på U.S. Global Investment, till
Bloomberg News.

Klockan 15.15 var OMXS30 1,0 procent lägre till
noteringen 927,4. Omsättningen uppgick till 14,0 miljarder
kronor. Det kan jämföras med att indexet var så högt som plus
1,5 procent klockan 14.19.

De svenska bankerna pressades. SEB A som dessutom har
fått en sänkt rekommendationen av Carnegie till neutral från
tidigare outperform föll med 2,8 procent till 156:50 kronor.
Bland de övriga storbankerna sjönk SHB A med 0,9 procent till
164:50 kronor och Nordea tappade 1,5 procent till 89:90
kronor.

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Parallels to 1907, or the 1930s?
Posted by David Gaffen

News that J.P. Morgan Chase was acting as a conduit to lend money to Bear Stearns evoked images of J. Pierpont Morgan himself in 1907 stepping in to backstop the financial system in the wake of one of the last century?s worst banking panics.

But it?s possible that this is more like the 1930s. Tony Crescenzi, in a comment today, notes that reserve banks are authorized "in unusual and exigent circumstances" to extend credit to a company that is "not a depository institution" if they can?t get credit from other sources. Bear Stearns isn?t a depository institution ? and they?re getting the money through J.P. Morgan, which is.

Mr. Crescenzi notes that loans of this type were used in the 1930s ? but have not been used since.

mvh spx970
" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

IMF tells states to plan for the worst

Mr Lipsky said: "I fully recognise an appropriate role for public sector intervention after market solutions have been exhausted."

He urged policymakers to "think the unthinkable" and prepare now for what they would do if the worst case scenarios materialised and "low probability but high impact events" threatened to jeopardise global financial stability.

He warned of the risk that a "global financial decelerator" could take hold, in which rising defaults and margin calls from lenders triggered forced asset sales, driving down the value of collateral and forcing further forced sales.

....

Mr Lipsky warned: "The risks of further escalation of this crisis are rising and decisive policy action will be needed."

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Bernanke on Fostering Sustainable Home Ownership

Mortgage performance data show a strong correlation between adverse house price changes and subsequent increases in mortgage delinquency and foreclosure (Avery, Brevoort, and Canner, 2007; Gerardi, Shapiro, and Willen, 2007). Investors who purchased homes in the hope of price appreciation seem particularly likely to walk away from "underwater" mortgages. Indeed, the role of investors in the housing market has increased markedly over time. According to data collected under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA), lending to non-owner-occupants has risen from about 5 percent of the home-purchase loans in the mid-1990s to about 17 percent of all purchases in 2005 and 2006 (Avery, Brevoort, and Canner, 2007). Mortgage delinquencies are also tied to local economic conditions; notably, several midwestern states struggling with job losses and slow income growth have seen increased delinquencies.

 ----

The current high rate of delinquencies and foreclosures is not confined to the subprime market. In 2007, about 45 percent of foreclosures were on prime, near-prime, or government-backed mortgages

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Fed is acting as 'lender of last resort' and saving Bear Stearns from insolvency.

J.P. Morgan is acting as agent or a conduit for the Fed. They are not accepting the risk.

Bear Stearns could not wait until March 27 when they would have had direct access to the new TSLF. The situation at Bear is so bad that no other bank on the Street would consider providing funding.

The Fed stepped up in what can only be described as an extraordinary action not seen since the bank failures of the 1960's and 1930's.

The Fed decided they could not allow Bear Stearns to go through even a managed, orderly failure because it would have set off a major chain reaction of counter-party risk failures that would have decimated Wall Street.

The deceit and fraud will continue until stopped by an external regulatory force not controlled by special interests.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Kommer Bear Stearns att försvinna? jag kommer inte att bli förvånad...

Bear Stearns is one of the major US investment banks which have dominated Wall Street for generations. Founded in 1923, it is one of the leading global banking firms that operates at the wholesale level, dealing with governments, companies and other financial institutions.Its core business lines include buying and selling stocks, government and corporate bonds, investment banking, global clearing services, asset management, and private client services.Before the crisis, it had a market capitalisation of $60bn and assets under management of $350bn, and a global workforce of 15,000.

Before the crisis, it had a market capitalisation of $60bn and assets under management of $350bn, and a global workforce of 15,000.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Betting the Bank

By PAUL KRUGMAN

What if this initiative fails? I?m sure that Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues are frantically considering other actions that they can take, but there?s only so much the Fed ? whose resources are limited, and whose mandate doesn?t extend to rescuing the whole financial system ? can do when faced with what looks increasingly like one of history?s great financial crises.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Om AMBAC... a la Bear Stearns, inget att oroa sig för.

In a letter, Chief Executive Michael Callen tried to calm jittery investors who have been worried about the bond insurer?s liquidity and ratings by revealing that the firm has over $15 billion of "claims-paying resources." Callen said this cash cushion is sufficient to meet Moody?s and Standard & Poor?s criteria to retain its sterling credit rating, which is necessary if the company is to remain in business. Investors seemed unconvinced, as Ambac?s shares sank 5.0%, or 33 cents, to $6.30 at the close on Friday.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#33 Intressant nu att se om vi faktiskt får en "run on the bank" i stora delar av systemet.... om så uppstår förmodat tidernas köpläge :) Samtidigt som det kan få oerhört trista konsekvenser för många.

Alltså inget att hoppas på och något alla ryktesspridare bör beakta. En bank kan bli illikvid på rykten, trots att den är fullt solvent.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

"Why not set an example of Bear Stearns, the guys who have this record of dog-eat-dog, we?re brass knuckles, we?re tough?" asked William A. Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital in Issaquah, Wash., and co-author with Fred Sheehan of "Greenspan?s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve." "This is the perfect time to set an example, but they are not interested in setting an example. We are Bailout Nation."

And so we are. After years of never allowing any of our financial institutions to fail, they have become so enormous that nobody will be allowed to sink beneath the waves. Otherwise, a tsunami would swamp the hedge funds, banks and other brokerage firms that remain afloat.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

bear sterns, The CBOE Options Report with Doctor J: 03-14-08  

Mvh werik1

Redan länkat detta.

Walter Bagehot, the patron saint of central bankers, suggested the following basic principles for central banks to help the banks under their supervision to avoid liquidity runs.

A. Only lend against good collateral to avoid losses for taxpayers at a later date.
B. Lend at extremely high interest rates to avoid the facility being used willy-nilly by greedy bankers.
C. Make public the availability of such facilities, so as to prevent doubts and suspicions in the minds of depositors and other creditors.

This week's announcement by the Fed violates EVERY one of those principles. Firstly, the collateral being accepted by the Fed is tainted as the market?s complete lack of appetite (at any price) for the securities shows. By providing the ability to liquefy these securities, the Fed has effectively signaled that it would accept just about any junk.  

...

The Fed has entered into an arrangement that is eerily similar to that of the European Central Bank, whose actions have resulted in parts of the European financial system essentially becoming "zombie" companies, ie dead but still walking around.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0 Citigroup

Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said "the risks are serious enough to call for substantial additional action in the mortgage arena," probably requiring public money.

Rubin, now at Citigroup, spoke at the Brookings Institution at a forum sponsored by the Hamilton Project, a group devising policies to promote broadly shared growth

"The credit markets are very highly stressed today," he said. "The tendency to cyclicality? was exacerbated" by the duration of the expansion, prolonged period of low interest rates, "massive and complex financial engineering," and "AAA ratings that lured market participants? independent of whether market participants should have relied on them."

At the same forum, another former Clinton Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, cited "an increasing risk that the principal policy tool on which we have relied ? federal reserve lending to banks in one form or another" may not suffice. He likened it to "fighting a virus with antibiotics

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Blickarna riktas mot Lehman bothers

Lehman Brothers is trying to demonstrate that they?re not going to be next, even as bettors in the options market and short-sellers target that firm, which also was a big player in residential mortgage-backed securities.

Shares of the stock finished the day down 15%, despite the firm?s announcement that it had "substantially oversubscribed" a new $2 billion revolving credit facility, which would presumably enhance the firm?s liquidity position.

Shares closed at $39.26 today, but the increasing volume of put options at lower strikes suggests, once again, that people are betting on disaster. The March $30 put options showed more than 15,000 in volume today, compared with open interest of 3,855 at the outset of trading today, which reflects tons of new positions, either buying insurance or betting against the stock.

More than 22,000 options traded at the $25 strike as well, and they were priced at $1.25 a contract, necessitating a fall to $23.75 for the buyer to benefit. That?s about a 41% decline in the shares before Thursday, when March options expire. Sounds crazy, sure. But the same was said about Bear Stearns.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#38

1)

Dr. Krugman

Call the metaphor police! 

Mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Domino Effect

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#39

A Wall Street Domino Theory

Already, investors are considering whether another firm might face financial problems. The price for insuring Lehman Brothers? debt jumped to $478 per $10,000 in bonds on Friday afternoon, from $385 in the morning, according to Thomson Financial. The cost for Bear debt was up to $830, from $530.

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Buffet varnade för derivat marknaden med 5-600 biljoner. Är du insatt i det Spx?

#43

Varningen är inte från igår

...

Wall Street didn?t listen to Buffett. Derivatives grew into a massive bubble, from about $100 trillion to $516 trillion by 2007. The new derivatives bubble was fueled by five key economic and political trends:

Letar efter en annan text men hittar inte det.

Se bild och lägg märk att Bear Stearns är inte med

och vem är först när det gäller Derivat ja den som

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Bear Stearns Closes in on Deal
To Sell Itself to J.P. Morgan

Bear also has been preparing for the possibility of a bankruptcy filing, with that as the likeliest scenario if an acquisition by J.P. Morgan falls apart, according to a person familiar with the situation. Such a filing might even occur before financial markets in Asia open for Monday trading.

Paulson Says

``The government is prepared to do what it takes to maintain the stability of our financial system,'' Paulson told the ``Fox News Sunday'' television program in Washington today. ``Our focus, our No. 1 priority, is the stability of our financial system.''

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

JP Morgan Offering $15-$20 A Share for Bear Stearns

Here's what makes this a tricky situation: without shareholder approval, there is no real deal, so other banks and clients may be reluctant to deal with Bear on Monday unless it's part of a well capitalized JP Morgan.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

J.P. Morgan agreed to buy Bear Stearns for $2 a share in a stock-swap transaction, people familiar with the matter say. J.P. Morgan will exchange 0.05473 shares of its common stock per one share of Bear Stearns stock. Both boards have approved the transaction. 7:08 p.m. 

Mvh Jamenvisst

2 dollar!? Fullständig utradering. Aktien har under det senaste året handlats som högst till 159 dollar. Och i fredags så handlades aktien till strax under 30 dollar.

Aktuella nyemissioner på Nyemissioner.se

NEW YORK --The U.S. Federal Reserve Sunday cut the Fed´s discount rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% and announced a new lending facility designed "to improve the ability of primary dealers to provide financing to participants in securitization markets."
The interest charged in this lending facility will be at the discount rate, according to a statement from the Fed. The discount rate cut means it will only be 25 basis points over the fed-funds rate of 3%.
The Fed also is broadening the type of debt it will accept as collateral in the lending facility. The Fed said such loans can be collateralized by a broad range of investment-grade debt securities.
The Fed said it took the measures "to bolster market liquidity and promote orderly market functioning," according to a statement.
The facility will begin on Monday, March 17 - and the maximum period for such loans will be extended to 90 days from 30 days.
The Fed also said in its statement that it approved the recently-announced financing arrangement announced by JPMorgan (JPM) and Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC). 

Mvh Jamenvisst

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Bear Stearns anställda har
förlorat mer än 5,2 miljarder dollar i sina innehav efter att
banken sålts till JP Morgan för 2 dollar per aktie.

Det skriver Financial News Online.

Insiderpersoner i Bear Stearns, inklusive ledning och
anställda, äger 38,7 procent av bankens aktier enligt Thomson
Financial. De kommer att få sammanlagt runt 90 miljoner
dollar för sina aktier enligt villkoren i affären med JP
Morgan, att jämföra med 5,3 miljarder dollar då aktien
handlades till 100 dollar i december i fjol.

Andra stora förlorare efter kollapsen inkluderar Joe
Lewis, en brittisk miljardär, som förlorat uppskattningsvis
1,16 miljarder dollar på den andel han byggt upp i banken
under det senaste året. Han köpte 11 miljoner aktier i fjol
till en snittkurs om 107 dollar per aktie, värda 1,18
miljarder dollar. Andelen är värd 22 miljoner dollar enligt
villkoren i söndagens försäljning.

James Cayne, Bear Stearns ordförande, har sett till
en aktiekurs på 100 dollar förlorat 550 miljoner dollar på
sina 5,6 miljoner aktier i den egna banken, medan vd Alan
Schwartz tappat 100 miljoner dollar på sina 1,03 miljoner
aktier under de senaste tre månaderna.

Baserat på ägarlistan i slutet av december återfinns
ett antal institutionella aktieägare bland förlorarna.

Morgan Stanley ägde då 5,4 procent.

Legg Mason 4,8 procent.

Private Capital Management 4,7 procent.

Barclays Global Investors 3,6 procent.

State Street Global 3,0 procent, enligt artikeln.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Den nuvarande finanskrisen i USA kommer antagligen att ses som den värsta sedan andra världskriget. Det skriver den förra Federal Reserve chefen Alan Greenspan i Financial Times på måndagen

från avanza.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"At least it?s not $1.99," jokes one friend. 

...

"The trouble is we just don?t know how bad the eighth and ninth innings will be." 

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#39

Investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. saw its rating downgraded to stable from positive by Moody's Investors Service Monday, and saw its shares fall as much as 25% in pre-open trading.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Bernanke Plays `Whac-A-Mole' With Turmoil in Markets

Home buyers are unlikely to put down offers on houses that they think will lose value -- no matter how much the Fed does to lower mortgage costs. Banks with mounting loan losses will shy away from lending to borrowers they think might go bust -- no matter how much money the Fed pumps into the financial system. And investors will remain jittery -- even after the Fed throws a lifeline to struggling financial institutions, as it did last week with Bear Stearns Cos. 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Bankers help poor people

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Att bevaka

The ratings agency warned Sigma Finance - managed by Gordian Knot, a company founded by two former Citigroup employees - could face difficulty refinancing ...

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Imorgon Merrill Lynch kommer enligt en del rykte med negativa nyheter..

A big write down

bara ett rykte

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#57

från den 16/03

"The problem is not the price of money but the availability of credit and the lack of confidence. As such, to merely lower interest rates is no use at all".

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#58 Exakt därför Merrill Lynch m fl nu kan låna vid FEDs discount window till FF-räntan + 25 bps. Just därför FED försöker med nytänkande lösningar....

Vad som var rätt eller fel får historieböckerna avgöra. Men det skulle nog ses som djupt oansvarigt att bara låta systemet frysa? 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

The Fed has no idea of which other primary dealers may be insolvent as it does not supervise and regulate those primary dealers that are not banks. But it is treating this crisis - the most severe financial crisis in the US since the Great Depression - as if it was purely a liquidity crisis. By lending massive amounts to potentially insolvent institutions that it does not supervise or regulate and that may be insolvent the Fed is taking serious financial risks and seriously exacerbate moral hazard distortions. Here you have highly leveraged non bank financial institutions that made reckless investments and lending, had extremely poor risk management and altogether disregarded liquidity risks; some may be insolvent but now the Fed is providing them with a blank check for unlimited amounts. This is a most radical action and a signal of how severe the crisis of the banking system and non-bank shadow financial system is. This is the worst US financial crisis since the Great Depression and the Fed is treating it as if it was only a liquidity crisis. But this is not just a liquidity crisis; it is rather a credit and insolvency crisis. And it is not the job of the Fed to bail out insolvent non bank financial institutions. If a bail out should occur this is a fiscal policy action that should be decided by Congress after the relevant equity holders have been wiped out and senior management fired without golden parachutes and huge severance packages.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#60 Visst finns risken att någon/några atkörer är insolventa. Dock hade dessa tvingats fram i marknaden nu tror jag. Repomarknaden körs inte av FED, men motparterna är extgremt intresserade av att man fullgör sina plikter så.....

Det gäller för FED att väga besluten på våg. För i dessa likviditetspumpningar så riskerar man ju såklart en moral hazzard-effekt, där detta felaktiga risktagande blir "ok". Istället för att låta några aktörer som typ Bear Stearns falera och ta sitt straff. Survival of the.....? =)

Men har du en egen åsikt i ämnet eller citerar du bara åsikter? Vad hade vi själva gjort i FEDs kostym? Lätt att säga att de bara ska skita i och låta allt haverera. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

stry, tycker fed's initiativ att gå in med likviditet för att garantera att det finns lån att ta är helt rätt.

Dock är räntenivån helt fel. Nu blir det billigare att ta fed lån än andra korta lån, så brokers kommer att vilja ta dom iställlet. Syftet var ju inte att förbättra lönsamheten genom att ersätta befintliga lån (vilket är omöjligt och vansinnigt i längden) utan att tillföra likviditet till dom som inte kunde få lån.

Räntan skulle ligga över existerande  marknadsränta. Dels för att inte rubba existerande marknad, dels för att täcka den risk dom tar, dels för att inte subventionera brokers.

Så rätt tänkt, fel räntenivå.

#62 Kan inte annat än att hålla med dig i detta.

Noterade att TED-spreaden tickade uppåt rejält igen nu. Mest beroende på 3M statsräntan rasar. Så stressen är fortfarande på plats, inget snack om den saken.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#61

 jag har redan sagt vad jag tycker för några månader sen... 

2007-12-12 16:41




Dem förvärrar bara lägget...det finns många ruttna äpplen som måste bort men Fed agerande kommer aldrig att skaffa ett friskt träd eller en korg fri från alla ruttna äpplen...

Fler korgar kommer att ruttna... Vi kanske inte kommer att se allt på en gång men det kommer och jag redan ser många :-)) 

så Fed  vinner tid och inget annat,,, och jag står för detta tills Fed bevisar att jag har fel...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

alla har det finstilta, där det står att man ingenting får

så utöver att inngen nänsin kan tala sanning i massmedia

har vi här en situation där man absolut inte får säga sanningen för då brakar allt ihop 

Mvh werik1

#64 Så alternativet att inte tillföra likviditet till solventa aktörer skulle inte riskera att orsaka stora skador på samhällsekonomin?

Har du funderat över konsekvenserna? Det är som sagt lätt att bua åt FED. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#66

Det inte jag som borde tänka på konsekvenserna, det är fed...

Det jag är rädd för kommer att inträffa oavsett vad vad fed gör.

Och sen Hellre bua än applaudera...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

här kan vi säga vad vi vill o säger vi håller med den stora valda ledaren FED 

Mvh werik1

#67 Om det sker oavsett vad FED gör, så medför ju det man gör nu ändå att man gjorde ett seriöst försök.

Och hellre försöka än att bara ge upp. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

The Alex Jones Show - Feb 29, 2008:Prof. Nouriel Roubini PT1  

Mvh werik1

Monetary policy and the state of the economy part 2 of 3 

plus allt annat 

Mvh werik1

Derivatives the new 'ticking bomb'

Buffett and Gross warn: $516 trillion bubble is a disaster waiting to happen

U.S. annual gross domestic product is about $15 trillion

U.S. money supply is also about $15 trillion

 
Current proposed U.S. federal budget is $3 trillion

U.S. government's maximum legal debt is $9 trillion

U.S. mutual fund companies manage about $12 trillion

World's GDPs for all nations is approximately $50 trillion

 
Unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits $50 trillion to $65 trillion

Total value of the world's real estate is estimated at about $75 trillion

 
Total value of world's stock and bond markets is more than $100 trillion

 
BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion

 
BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion 
 

Mvh werik1

Remember back in 1998 when LTCM's little $5 billion loss nearly brought down the world's banking system. That "domino effect" is now repeating many times over, straining the world's monetary, economic and political system as the subprime housing mess metastasizes, taking the U.S. stock market and the world economy down with it.
This cascading "domino effect" was brilliantly described in "The $300 Trillion Time Bomb:

If Buffett can't figure out derivatives, can anybody?" 

Bottom line: Little things leverage a heck of a big wallop. It only takes a little spark from a "bad 2% deal" to ignite this $516 trillion weapon of mass destruction. Think of this entire unregulated derivatives market like an unsecured, unpredictable nuclear bomb

Mvh werik1

World's newest and biggest 'black market'
The fact is, derivatives have become the world's biggest "black market," exceeding the illicit traffic in stuff like arms, drugs, alcohol, gambling, cigarettes, stolen art and pirated movies. Why? Because like all black markets, derivatives are a perfect way of getting rich while avoiding taxes and government regulations. And in today's slowdown, plus a volatile global market, Wall Street knows derivatives remain a lucrative business.  

Mvh werik1

Recently Pimco's bond fund king Bill Gross said "What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern-day banking system, a complex of leveraged lending so hard to understand that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge fund managers in mid-August." In short, not only Warren Buffett, but Bond King Bill Gross, our Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the rest of America's leaders can't "figure out" the world's $516 trillion derivatives. 
 

Mvh werik1

Why? Gross says we are creating a new

"shadow banking system."

Derivatives are now not just risk management tools. As Gross and others see it, the real problem is that derivatives are now a new way of

creating money out of thin air

outside the normal central bank liquidity rules. How? Because they're private contracts between two companies or institutions

Mvh werik1

That's crucial, folks. Why? Because central banks require reserves like stock brokers require margins, something backing up the transaction. Derivatives don't. They're not "real money." They're paper promises closer to "Monopoly" money than real U.S. dollars 

Mvh werik1

plus hundratal kommentarer

If Spitzer can be forced to resign because he met a woman in a hotel, why can't Bernanke be forced to resign for destroying the incomes of retirees on fixed income savings????  

Mvh werik1

500 trillion in outstanding derivatives?

On Friday, Bear Stearns blew up. It was the worst possible news at the worst possible time. A day earlier, the politically-connected Carlyle Capital hedge fund defaulted on $16.6 billion of its debt. Carlyle boasted a $21.7 billion portfolio of AAA-rated residential mortgage-backed securities, but was unable to make a margin call of just $400 million. (Where did the $21.7 billion go?)  

Mvh werik1

The news on Bear was the last straw. The stock market started reeling immediately; shedding 300 points in less than an hour. Then, miraculously, the tide shifted and the market began to rebound. If there was ever a time for Paulson?s Plunge Protection Team to come to the rescue; this was it. For weeks, the markets have been battered with bad news. Retail sales are down, unemployment is up, consumer confidence is in the tank, inflation is rising, the dollar is on the ropes, and the credit crunch has spread to even the safest corners of the market. Facing fierce headwinds, Washington mandarins and financial heavyweights had to decide whether to sit back and let one small investment bank take down the whole equities market in an afternoon or stealthily buy a few futures and live to fight another day? Tough choice, eh?

We?ll never know for sure, but that?s probably what happened. 
 

Mvh werik1

"If the Fed hadn?t acted this morning and Bear did default on its obligations, then that could have triggered a widespread panic and potentially a collapse of the financial system".

Bingo. 
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message521094/pg1 

Mvh werik1

There are at least two ways in which a failure at Bear Stear might have precipitated a decimation of the Wall Street financial community: counterparty risk and the triggering of a chain reaction of failures.

First, as of Nov 30, 2007 Bear Stearns was counterparty to 13 TRILLION in derviatives contracts, as shown in their most recent public 10K Filing with the SEC. (hat tip to jerrbear from PrudentBear for tracking down the reference page. Great catch!).


As of November 30, 2007 and 2006, the Company had notional/contract amounts of approximately $13.40 trillion and $8.74 trillion, respectively, of derivative financial instruments, of which $1.85 trillion and $1.25 trillion, respectively, were listed futures and option contracts... 

500 

Mvh werik1

triljoner dollar, vem är etta 

Mvh werik1

hur kan merryl o lehman ha 0 noll i forex spot

men morgan 300 miljarder o citi 400 

Mvh werik1

werik jävla pajas, håll ditt spammande till dina egna trådar.

What a monster Wall Street has created for the world. 

jämför vice riksbankschefens nyströms kommentarer, allt är bra allt är enkelt, som en hemförsäkring

hälsa bengt dennis 

Mvh werik1

#85 ja jag är pajas, men vad gällde saken 

Mvh werik1

The $300 Trillion Time Bomb

Bonds are bound to stocks, which are tied to currencies around the world.

The binding threads are derivatives, and the brightest minds on Wall Street worry about how they work 

but gametheory are not interested, maybe NEWMAN
 

Mvh werik1

Ja, det är tråkigt att sådana här strängar förstörs.

Man måste faktiskt fråga sig hur mycket sånt här AG ska tillåta. Det finns ju en gräns när diskussionen och utbytet förstörs och då förstörs ju AG.

aldur, menar du att orsakerna till bankkrisen är ointressanta, att shadow banking system är ointressant, att  600 triljoner dollar riskeras i en gigantisk systemkrash

vad är det som är förstört, några fåniga kommentarer som retar gametheory

Mvh werik1

Det blir kanske lite för mycket werik1, du kan väl lägga in de du tycker är mest intressant och även lägga till egna kommentarer. Vi vet din ståndpunkt redan och jag delar den till viss del men när det blir så mycket och på kort tid så orkar man inte läsa dina inlägg utan man scrollar bara vidare. Ta fram de som mest visar dina teorier, kvalite istället för kvantitet.

Glad Påsk 

Mvh Jamenvisst

tack, skall dämpa , glad påsk 

Mvh werik1

Other Complications
Other than asset composition, other factors can cause CDOs to be more

 complicated.

For starters, some structures use leverage and credit derivatives that can trick even the senior tranche out of being deemed safe.

These structures can become synthetic CDOs that are backed merely by derivatives and credit default swaps made between lenders and in the derivative markets.

Many CDOs get structured such that the underlying collateral is cash flows from other CDOs, and these become leveraged structures.

This increases the level of risk because the analysis of the underlying collateral (the loans) may not yield anything other than basic information found in the prospectus. Care must be taken regarding how these CDOs are structured, because if enough debt defaults or debts are prepaid too quickly, the payment structure on the prospective cash flows will not hold and the some tranche holders will not receive their designated cash flows. Adding leverage to the equation will magnify any and all effects if an incorrect assumption is made. 

vad är detta

Let's face the facts. When you file a $3.1 billion lawsuit against someone who is insolvent, you can all but kiss $3.1 billion goodbye.

With that in mind, Merrill Lynch just kissed $3.1 billion goodbye. Here is the headline: Merrill Sues SCA'S XL Unit to Maintain CDO Insurance.

Merrill Lynch & Co. sued XL Capital Assurance Inc. to force the bond insurer to honor $3.1 billion of guarantees on collateralized debt obligations as the securities firm attempts to avoid more writedowns of mortgage-backed debt. 

vad är detta

During the last credit crisis in 1998, European banks were leveraged 26 to 1. In the early part of this decade, leverage grew to 32 to 1. Now the sector is geared 40 to 1 on average, according to Citi's European bank research team. 

det går ej låtsas veta allt, man får undersöka, det tar tid

ganska tråkigt stirra på eurusd dygnet runt, den tickar så fint neråt, hur vet jag det, jag ser det 

om det var så enkelt med alla dessa derivatives  

Mvh werik1

Finns det någon nybörjar guide på vad som händer i usa ? en crash-course ;)

spx970 lånade oss en bra tidning Mike "Mish" Shedlock

innan spx970 dök upp var jag ganska nybörjare, i vad som händer i usa, nu tycker jag det är roligt läsa o titta på ekonomiska kommentrer

som det står här fick bernanke o company gå en sådan kurs förra sommaren

derivativen är komplicerade, förlusten kan bli väldigt stor vid krash

optioner är dom flesta vana vid

här vid valutahandeln eurusd är belåningsgraden upp till 400 gånger

youtube videorna är nog det enklaste

aktieguiden är bra, tyvärr är det som i amerikanska presidentval, man blir diskvalifiserad om man säger nåt fel, även om det kan vara sant 

Mvh werik1

werik är du efterbliven? I så fall ber jag om ursäkt och föreslår ödmjukast att du frågar någon på dagcentret hur man uppför sig på forum. (Och fråga någon kan du göra oavsett du är efterbliven eller inte.)

I annat fall...

Från #70 till #95 så är 20 av inläggen dina, med en informationsmängd som

inte skulle fylla ett inlägg. Och detta i spx970s tråd.

Och vad du "tror" är sanningen bör bäst hållas i dina egna trådar, i och med att den är väldigt långt från allmänt accepterad.

Du får dessutom flest röster i det inlägg är du säger att du ska dämpa. Försök läs mellan raderna...

endast för intresserade, lånar en sida med många sidor , många artiklar, av    ,  dragspel,  samma tema, endast för intresserade

Market Ticker  

Thursday, March 20, 2008
"The Fed Will Do Whatever It Wants" and RAISE CASH NOW!

The Truth: You must raise cash. NOW. Not commodities, not gold, not "solid stocks", not anything of the kind. CASH, defined as actual CASH or Short-Term United States Treasuries. Again - up to $100,000 in FDIC insured banks with the rest in short-term US Treasuries - either directly (Treasury Direct) or via a Treasury Money Market fund such as VMPXX (Vanguard).

I may be wrong and so may the bond market.

I wouldn't take that bet if I were you.

Mvh werik1

Jag tycker den sidan är bra #97. Hittade den också via dragis. Blir ett inlägg med kopiera och klistra från samma artikel. Läsvärd engelsk text länken ovanför.

While we're on the subject of distortions and lies, many people say "The Fed doesn't care about the equity markets", or alternatively, "The Fed is trying to prop equity markets."

The truth is a bit more obscure and obtuse than that; one must look into how bank capital requirements are determined in order to get to the bottom of it.

Here's reality - Bank Tier Capital - the measure of whether you are "well capitalized" or "dead" as a bank - includes common stock equity.

Specifically, Tier 1 Capital, the most important type for a bank, includes what is known as "Shareholder Equity" as well as retained earnings.

So consider this folks - you can sink a bank if you sink its stock price.

How? Simple - "Shareholder Equity" is not so simple as "stock price." However, the stock price has a major impact on it, because precipitous declines hit both intangibles (good will) and financing costs (in the other direction, raising them) which shrink Shareholder Equity from both ends of the candle at once.

Now do you get it? The Fed and the rest of the fools on The Street want to pump bank stock prices because if they sink sufficiently the bank can actually be declared insolvent as a consequence!

This also, however, means that our banking system is in fact 100% based on confidence and it is the clearest indication you will ever find on why we must have transparency in our financial markets, including an absolute and irrevocable ban on off-balance-sheet and other hidden crap, and forced mark-to-market 

Mvh Jamenvisst

från #82

 
The second method would be a failure at Bear Stearns that triggers a cascade of failures in the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market.

This is not counterparty risk.

The risk here is of CDS wagers on the failure of Bear Stearns itself.

This market consists of derivative 'wagers' on the credit failure of specific companies.

This market has become a leveraged nightmare, being so large that the failure of any single significant company such as Bear Stearns could precipate a chain reaction of defaults.

As you may recall we pointed out some time ago that after subprime the next area to watch closely as a potential tipping point would be the CDS market.

Mvh werik1

#98 Eh? Visst, sjunkande aktiekurs får ju en inverkan på bankens trovärdighet och upplevda styrka. Men det är ju kanske snarare så att aktiekursen är en effekt av dyrare finansiering och försämrat rykte. Elller hur? Hönan eller ägget :)

Hur som helst så är aktiekursen i sig ingen direkt inverkan på bankens primärkapital.

Bra sajt det där.

#99 About 74:1 leverage for JPM with a 91.7 TRILLION total

100 riktiga trillions av 600 hos JPM som äger fed med andra 

Mvh werik1

#100 stry, förklara du lite för mej , alla dessa triljoner 

Mvh werik1

Credit Default Swaps

"It has only been six months since people have known what credit default swaps are,"

Consider a swap in the $14.6 billion Western Asset Core Plus Bond Fund. The fund has a contract with Credit Suisse First Boston to insure $9 million of Eastman Kodak (EK) bonds. If Kodak goes bankrupt, Western Asset will be on the hook for some or all of the $9 million in losses, which it will pay to Credit Suisse. In return for such insurance, Credit Suisse pays Western 1.4% per quarter on the $9 million. Neither side has to actually own the bond, so pretty much any financial player can place a bet on Kodak's credit quality. All of those bets help explain why the

credit default swap market tops $43 trillion, larger than the entire bond market.  

Mvh werik1

Credit Default Swaps, the global outstanding value of which in June 2007 was $2.4 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements. These are a relatively new instrument, the efficacy of which has not been tested in a downturn. It appears likely that the value in banks? books of their Level 3 credit derivatives contracts bears no relation whatever to reality. As discussed above, the incentives have been all in favor of inflating it. 

October 29, 2007 

The capital underlying Wall Street, at the top, is not all that large - a matter of a few hundred billion. Given the piling of risk upon risk that has been engaged in over the last few years, and the size of the losses in the mortgage market alone that seem probable - my own estimate last spring of $980 billion looks increasingly likely to be somewhat below the final figure - it appears almost inevitable that in a bear market in which liquidity dries up and investors become skeptical, Wall Street?s capital will be wiped out.

Mvh werik1

#103 Att tänka på är ju att i en derivatmarknad är det ett nollsummespel. Alltså det som ena sidan torskar här vid en ev kk i Kodak, det vinner den andra.

Och som med försäkringar i allmänhet så behövs de sällan eller aldrig. Ändå har du försäkrat ditt hus och din bil.

Hur stor är försäkringsmarknaden? Är inte det jättefarligt? För tänk om...

=) Varför ska man inte kunna handla kontrakt som försäkrar mot kk i bolag?  

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

http://boards.prudentbear.com/

Goldman sees credit losses totaling $1.2 trillion
Tue Mar 25, 2008 1:24pm EDT

NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs forecasts global credit losses stemming from the current market turmoil will reach $1.2 trillion, with Wall Street accounting for nearly 40 percent of the losses.

U.S. leveraged institutions, which include banks, brokers-dealers, hedge funds and government-sponsored enterprises, will suffer roughly $460 billion in credit losses after loan loss provisions, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note released late on Monday.

Losses from this group of players are crucial because they have led to a dramatic pullback in credit availability as they have pared lending to shore up their capital and preserve their capital requirements, they said.

Goldman estimated $120 billion in write-offs have been reported by these leveraged institutions since the credit crunch began last summer.

"U.S. leveraged institutions have written off less than half of the losses associated with the bursting of the credit bubble," they said. "There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is still rather dim."

Of the cumulative losses expected by these leveraged players, bad residential home loans will represent about half, while poor-performing commercial mortgages will represent 15 percent to 20 percent.

The rest of the losses will come from credit card loans, car loans, commercial and industrial lending and non-financial corporate bonds, Goldman economists said.

Facing more credit losses, leveraged institutions have raised about $100 billion in new capital from domestic and foreign investors and reduced dividend payouts. This amount is more than three-quarters of the write-offs to date, the report said. 
 

Mvh werik1

"Everything you hear about the Federal Reserve (and the Euro Central Bank for that matter) raising interest rates to "combat inflation" is private disinformation from a deviant banking elite intended to conceal the fact that the middle-classes are being robbed blind and their hopes for the future are being stripped from their existence.

Unfortunately the same elite has dumbed down most of us to the point where it is difficult to follow an explanation of how this super-theft is accomplished. So copy this and go someplace where you can concentrate.

How the Future Was Stolen

Mvh werik1

#0

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, will probably post an annual loss in 2008 on further asset writedowns, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney said in a note to investors.

Whitney cut her full-year estimate to a loss of 15 cents a share from a profit of 75 cents to reflect potential first- quarter writedowns on leveraged loans and collateralized debt obligations of $13.1 billion. In the first quarter, the bank may lose $1.15 a share, compared with an earlier loss estimate of 28 cents, Whitney said in the note, dated yesterday.

Whitney, 38, correctly predicted two months in advance that Citigroup Inc. would reduce its dividend to preserve capital. Her downgrade of Citigroup helped spur selling that erased almost $500 billion in value from the nation's stock market on Nov. 1. In yesterday's note, she also lowered U.S. industry-wide estimates for first-quarter earnings by an average of 84 percent.

``This will not be our last reduction in 2008,'' Whitney wrote in the note. ``We anticipate further downside to both estimates and stock prices.''

Citigroup fell 1.3 percent to $23.13 in European trading, bringing declines this year to 20 percent.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#108 Samtidigt bekräftade hon estimatet på EPS + $2,50 för 2009, igår var det.

Snittet för 2008 ligger nu på EPS GAAP + 1,755 för Citigroup, med en range på -0,86 till +3,950. Så osäkerheten är stor, ovanligt stor. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

credit default-swaparna  

Mvh werik1

"shadow banking system," 

As one of his last acts as president in December 2000 Bill Clinton signed into law the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which formally deregulated companies sponsoring derivatives schemes

Two of Bear Stearns hedge funds went under in the last six months due to disintegrating subprime mortgage holdings. But as the recent string of Wall Street crises exposed, the shadow banking system has increasingly intersected with commercial banks. It is difficult to know where one ends and the other begins, since banks have been allowed to keep such investment vehicles off their balance sheets--legally.

As the New York Times reported on March 23, "derivatives are buried in the accounts of just about every Wall Street firm, as well as major commercial banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase." 

 

Mvh werik1

#0

Citigroup...

Tillbaka till ruta 1...

Citigroup Will Probably Report Second-Quarter Loss, UBS Says

Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden yesterday predicted ``substantial'' additional writedowns and more losses on consumer loans. The bank has booked more than $42 billion of credit losses and writedowns since last year because of the credit market contraction, or about 10 percent of the $396 billion racked up by banks worldwide

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Short Sellers Make Huge Bets US Financials Will Tumble As Citigroup (C) Sees More Write-Downs (LEH)(AIG)(WB)(WM)(ABK)(JPM)(GM)(F)(GE)(WMT)(MOT)(DAL)(EMC)(Q)

The short interest in Citigroup (C) was up 20 million to 135.7 million.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#113 Fortfarande bara 2% av floaten short... hur bra nu den där statistiken stämmer....  

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

C  närmar sig mars low... 

Investors Hide as Banks Come Knocking

As banks rack up billions of dollars in losses from bad loans and blundered investments, large investors are becoming skittish about pumping more money into them.

In the past several weeks, bank executives have encountered unexpected resistance from investors, who have expressed reluctance to participate in the capital-raising transactions sweeping through the industry, according to people familiar with the situation. Already bruised by big losses and fearing that bank shares haven't yet hit bottom, some of these investors are choosing to tighten their purse strings

"The window for capital-raising is closing," says Brad Evans, a portfolio manager for Heartland Advisors Inc., a money-management firm in Milwaukee that invests in small, regional banks. "Investing in a bank right now means investing in a large portfolio of loans that are essentially a black box."

The change in sentiment could have sweeping implications for financial institutions that are trying to shore up their balance sheets by issuing stock and other securities to their investors. Some may be forced to lure investors with sweeter terms, further raising the costs of doing these deals.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Citigroup to Cut 10%
of Investment Banking Jobs

Citigroup, which has more than 350,000 employees around the world, had fired at least 9,000 workers as of March 31. Still, the coming cuts are unusual in their scope and severity. Mergers-and-acquisitions bankers are expected to see especially sharp cuts, in part because their ranks were not trimmed as much as other units earlier this year. But no major department is likely to be spared, aside from some businesses in emerging markets and Citigroup's lucrative transactions-services arm.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Large U.S. Banks May Fail Amid Recession, Rogoff Says

``Like any shrinking industries, we are going to see the exit of some major players,'' Rogoff told Bloomberg, declining to name the banks he expects to fail. ``We're really going to see a consolidation even among the major investment banks.''

....

``The only way to put discipline into the system is to allow some companies to go bust,'' Rogoff said. ``You can't just have an industry where they make giant profits or they get bailed out.''

Det är vad jag skrev om sedan krisen började... bäst för fed att inte blanda sig en fri marknad...

Låt alla som agerat fel betala notan...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

vedeo + text

Merrill, Wachovia in Danger of Failing: Strategist 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

FF är nu borta...

I väntan på nästa

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Video: Karl Denniger from MarketTicker

"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#119 

Wall Street Trading Gets Zero Value From Lehman, Merrill Owners

``We're standing at one edge of the Grand Canyon, looking at the other side,'' said Brad Hintz, an analyst at New York-based Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and a former Lehman finance chief. ``I can see a rejuvenated fixed-income market and Lehman as one of the major players in that market at the other side, but we don't know how deep the canyon is. And we have to get through the canyon to get to the other side.''

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#121

Aktien ner mer än 43%, under july low och under hög volym.

Lehman Shares Fall After Talks With Korean Bank End

The lack of a deal ``is depressing shareholders and infuriating insiders,'' said Richard Bove, an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co., in a report today. The bank ``refuses to take what it believes are fire-sale prices for its key assets,'' he said.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Lehman Brothers redovisar ett
resultat på -5:92 dollar per aktie för räkenskapsårets tredje
kvartal, juni-augusti. Väntat var enligt Bloomberg News ett
resultat på -3:45 dollar per aktie.

Banken sänker utdelningen för 2008 till 0:05 dollar
per aktie, mot tidigare 0:68 dollar per aktie./JE-GV


...

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Lehman Brothers planerar att sälja
omkring 55 procent av investment management-verksamheten.

Det meddelar bolaget på onsdagen, enligt Bloomberg
News.

Lehman planerar också att avyttra större delen av
bankens fastighetstillgångar

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Wall Street Prepares for Potential Lehman Bankruptcy Filing 

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#124 Hur funkar detta, vem betalar för att stänga deras positioner på en söndag?

mvh driverns

ISDA Statement on Special Net Trading Session for Lehman Derivatives

Fears that Lehman would be forced to file for bankruptcy by the end of the day intensified when the International Swaps and Derivatives Association opened an emergency trading session among Wall Street dealers with Lehman.

The trading session, due to last two hours, is designed to minimise the risk associated with a Lehman bankruptcy - an event that could have wreaked havoc on Lehman counterparties and the global derivatives markets. The trades will be void if Lehman does not file for bankruptcy by midnight.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

AIG nästa att bevaka...

Failure to agree a rescue by this morning could cause severe strain in financial markets and put further pressure on other financial firms such as the insurer AIG, Washington Mutual, a US lender, and other investment banks.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Monday Morning with AIG

As the stock spirals, American International Group Inc. is considering holding an analyst call Monday morning, when it might announce steps, including asset sales, to assuage worried investors, Liam Pleven and Liz Rappaport report in the Wall Street Journal, citing a person familiar with the matter.

In addition, Standard & Poor?s is threatening to downgrade the company?s credit due to the sharp fall-off in the company?s share price and increase in credit spreads on its debt, which barely traded Friday. If the company holds a Monday conference call, MarketBeat will be all over it.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

haha, sicken dokusåpa det här är. Har ett par namnförslag: "Rädderiet" och "Bank söker pengar".

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

AIG Scrambles to Raise Cash, Talks to Fed
Insurer Looks to Sell Automotive Business, Annuities Unit;
It Seeks $10 Billion in Fresh Capital as Downgrade Threatens

AIG turned down a capital infusion from a group of private-equity firms because it would have effectively given them control of the company ... chairman and chief executive, Robert Willumstad, took the extraordinary step of reaching out to the Federal Reserve for help. 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Bank of America Reaches Deal for Merrill,,, Bank of America Buys Merrill For $29 a Share 

As of Sunday evening, a deal had not yet been signed, said people briefed on the discussions. And other last-second bidders could emerge from the woodwork. Yet with news of the Bank of America talks breaking Sunday, it became all the more difficult for Merrill and Mr. Thain to rebuff a deal. Should the talks collapse, most on the Street were expecting Merrill's shares to fall even further amid widespread worries about independent broker-dealers.

Man talar om aktien faller mot 10 dollar

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Wilbur Ross: Possibly a Thousand Banks Will Close

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Washington Mutual att bevaka...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Investors will wake up to see their portfolios shrunk compared to close of trading on Friday and there will be some panic selling in the U.S. market Monday morning, but the Lehman collapse is unlikely to bring any more investment bank bankruptcies, Dennis Gartman, founder of the Gartman Letter, told CNBC. 


Det var precis vad man sa och skrev när Bear Stearn kollapsade...

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

the biggest bankruptcy in history 

...

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis that began with the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market last year ``is probably a once in a century event'' that will lead to the failure of more firms.

....

``This is a once in a half century, probably once in a century type of event,'' Greenspan said. ``We shouldn't try to protect every single institution. The ordinary cost of financial change has winners and losers.''

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

AIG's Ratings Cut by S&P, Moody's, Threatening Quest for Funds

``I don't know of a major bank that doesn't have some significant exposure to AIG,'' said Kenneth Lewis, chief executive officer of Bank of America Corp., in a CNBC interview. An AIG collapse would ``be a much bigger problem than most that we've looked at,'' he said. 

...

``AIG poses a systemic risk because it's a large counterparty in the financial system,'' said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage the equivalent of $1.8 billion at Platypus Asset Management in Sydney. ``It's too big to be allowed to fail.''``

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 
You can?t bring back dead banks with more liquidity.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Ambac Financial said late Friday that a downgrade by ratings agency Moody's Investors Service would leave its guaranteed investment contract business short of collateral to meet liabilities.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#133

WaMu goes under, acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase

In the largest bank failure in U.S. history, Washington Mutual Inc. succumbed Thursday to the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis, was seized by federal regulators and rapidly acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

WaMu Is Seized, Sold Off to J.P. Morgan, In Largest Failure in U.S. Banking History 

The failure of WaMu eclipsed what had long been America's largest bank bust on record, the 1984 collapse of Continental Illinois, which had $40 billion in assets.

The fact that no bank was willing to buy WaMu until it failed shows how badly confidence has eroded in a banking system awash with record profits just a few years ago. Faced with deepening losses on mortgages, credit cards and other loans, big and small banks across the country are struggling with what many bank executives say is a crisis far deeper than the savings-and-loan debacle.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Dåligt för Citi...

 
Citigroup Demands Wachovia, Wells Fargo Terminate Merger Deal

``Citi has substantial legal rights regarding Wachovia and this transaction,'' the New York-based company said in a statement. ``Wachovia's agreement to a transaction with Wells Fargo is in clear breach of an exclusivity agreement between Citi and Wachovia.''

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

video

SEC Deregulation Let Banks Leverage Up 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#142   ja sanslöst. Folk får klä skott för taskiga beslut men gissar att de flesta beslutsfattarna klarar sej undan - fram med fjädrar å tjära på flera håll tack, western style. 

Mvh Jamenvisst

Illinois, Michigan Banks Shut by Regulators; Toll Climbs to 15

Illinois and Michigan banks with $123 million in deposits were closed by state regulators as tightening credit and a deepening real-estate slump pushes failures this year to 15, the most since 1993.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Citigroup behöver en partner annars tror starkt att banken går under på nåt sätt...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Citi says credit card losses may rise through 2009
Bank suffers $1.4 billion hit from card-backed assets in latest quarter

"Credit card losses may continue to rise well into 2009, and it is possible that the company's loss rates may exceed their historical peaks," the banking giant said in its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Friday.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 
A dead bank walking,,, Citigroup

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

C...

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Citigroup Update: Government Looking To Buy Assets

The Feds could buy more than $100 billion in the bad assets if the plans go through. But that doesn't mean it will pay Citi $100 million. The deal is not finalized but could be announced tonight.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet