USA: A Black swan ?

DEL 2

Och här kommer lite mer från Citigroup för alla Fed chefer i världen har ett andra problem att handskas med.

Economists at Citigroup, which itself has been buffeted by the subprime tornado, expect

-    The U.S. Federal Reserve to cut its key short-term rate, now at 2.25%, to 1% by mid-2008.

-    The European Central Bank - which has been holding its key rate steady at 4% ? to beginning cutting rates before the end of the second quarter and bring them to 3% by early 2009.
-    The Bank of England, where the key rate is 5.25%, to cut rates to 3.75% by mid 2009.
-    The Bank of Japan, which has been itching to raise rates from the current 0.5%, to leave them unchanged through 2009.
-     The Swiss National Bank, where rates at now t 2.75%, to cut 2.5% at year end and then again to 2.25% in 2009.
-     And the exception, the Royal Bank of Australia, which has been raising rates lately to fight inflation in the commodity-rich economy, to boost its key rate from 7.25% to 7.5% later this year.

"We are marking down our forecast for economic growth?in many industrial countries," the bank?s economists said in their latest "Global Economic Outlook and Strategy:"

"The U.S. recession is likely to be deeper than previously expected, with growth staying below trend until late 2009. European growth is likely to slow below trend this year, with little or no recovery in 2009 unless financial conditions improve sharply. Emerging markets growth remains likely to outperform industrial countries by a side margin in 2008 and 2009. This will cushion the industrial country slowdown, but also reduces the extent to which the slowdown will yield the usual disinflationary windfall of large commodity price declines," the economists said.

Märkligt att man kritiserat Alan Greenspan för han sänkte räntan men applåderar Bernanke sänkning av räntan? Oh Boy!

Och vi skall absolut inte glömma att USA redan hamnat i recession. frågan som ställs nu, hur djup är denna recession och hur länge processen skall fortsätta.
Jag själv tror utifrån vad jag har läst att USA kommer att landa mellan recession och depression dvs." värre än recession men bättre än depression".

Är det värsta över? Robin Rubin former Treasury Secretary berättar.

Mr. Hunt asked whether ? following the Bear Stearns debacle ? the worst of the credit crisis has passed. Might we see more financial institutions fail?

 "I don?t know the answer to that, Al, and neither does anybody else. I think there?s also a very real possibility that a lot of trouble could lie ahead. And at least my view, since we?re in uncharted waters, and I don?t think there?s a way to make a probabilistic judgment about where you are in that spectrum, I think we need to take these risks very seriously and I think that we should - from a policy perspective - take whatever measures we can find that we think are sensible to try to reduce that risk," Mr. Rubin said.

Vi är faktiskt som han skriver in uncharted Waters och jag därför tror starkt att många begravda hundar skall dyka upp, oavsett vad Fed gör. Att tillföra Likviditet kommer inte att lösa problemet, det bara kommer att förvärra dem.
Glöm inte att man förväntar sig mer än 100 banker skall gå bankrutt? vilka är dessa?
Kom ihåg att Fed Bernanke sa det finns banker kommer att gå bankrutt och att dem inte tillhör dem stora? Min fråga vilken Kategori tillhör Bear Stearns?


Ett gott råd lita inte på vad Fed säger eller skriver, hans jobb är inte att berätta för oss att det går dåligt, att lägget är kaotiskt och att vi måste skydda oss. Nej, hans uppgift och ansvar är att lösa krisen som USA befinner sig och under ytan att baila out Wall Street för the wrong doing?

och jag säger inte att den situation som finans sektors befinner sig i - är Feds fel men det kommer att bli Feds fel när de tappar kontroll över det hela och jag har en stark känsla att dem kommer att göra det.

Vet ni varför? Enkelt? att man hade noll koll när subprime mess exploderade? och man väntat länge med att agera? Att det var inflationen det största problemet, att hus marknaden kommer att stabilisera sig ? och nu håller man på att sänka räntan som galningar?

Läs här t.o.m. Bernanke är illa ute?

Bernanke lives in Washington's Capitol Hill area in a four- bedroom, 2,600-square-foot house he bought new in May 2004 for $839,000. Almost four years later, it may not be worth any more, according to real estate records and local agents.

Att man hade kontroll och att man inte behövde oroa sig?

 
Katastrofen kommer att inträffa?vi vill det eller inte? ni såg vad som hänt med Bear Stearns aktie kurs, Och vi lär se fler? På mer än ett år har en bank som klarade de värsta depression som USA upplevd men inte denna kris? Det berättar faktiskt mer om vad som väntar oss. Den storsta finans kriserna som världen aldrig skådat är här framför oss. Bäst att man förbereder sig.


Jag säger inte att världen kommer att gå under. Nej absolut inte men jag tror starkt att vi kommer att få en bättre värld att leva i när denna kris är över?
Och som jag skrev i ett gammalt inlägg, girigheten måste utplånas?

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

boken finns att köpa 

"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette

Del 3 

Nästa bomb att bevaka kommer att handla om Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)

Och om MBS

Fed May Buy Mortgages Next, Treasury Investors Bet


Investors, averse to holding most any debt except Treasuries, drove rates on three-month bills to 0.387 percent on March 20, the lowest since 1954. Rates on the securities, the safest assets next to cash, tumbled 0.59 percentage point last week to 0.57 percent. They were as high as 4.29 percent as recently as Oct. 15. The rate was 0.68 percent as of 1:59 p.m. in Tokyo.

`Very Helpful'

``Something like that would be very helpful, but the Fed was not designed to and shouldn't assume a huge amount of risk on behalf of taxpayers,'' said Alan Blinder, a Princeton University professor and former vice chairman of the central bank. ``That should come out of the elected parts of the government, which means the administration and Congress.''

Men det räcker inte, For Pimco's Gross that's not enough. ``If Washington gets off its high `moral hazard' horse and moves to support housing prices, investors will return in a rush,'' he wrote in a note to investors published Feb. 26. Gross,
Och som ni märker varje gång man vänder på en sten så finns ännu värre problem att lösa?

Partying like its 1929

Men varför är vi här? Varför vi befinner oss i denna kaotiska situation?

Paul Krugman försöker ge en del svar

The answer, at a fundamental level, is that we?re paying the price for wilful amnesia. We chose to forget what happened in the 1930s ? and having refused to learn from history, we?re repeating it.
In fact, however, we were partying like it was 1929 ? and now it?s 1930.
The financial crisis currently under way is basically an updated version of the wave of bank runs that swept the nation three generations ago. People aren?t pulling cash out of banks to put it in their mattresses ? but they?re doing the modern equivalent, pulling their money out of the shadow banking system and putting it into Treasury bills. And the result, now as then, is a vicious circle of financial contraction.

Not everyone is convinced that Bernanke has managed to turn the tide for financial firms.

PAUL KRUGMAN igen

The Fed?s economic power rests on the fact that it?s the only institution with the right to add to the "monetary base": pieces of green paper bearing portraits of dead presidents, plus deposits that private banks hold at the Fed and can convert into green paper at will.
When the Fed is worried about the state of the economy, it basically responds by printing more of that green paper, and using it to buy bonds from banks. The banks then use the green paper to make more loans, which causes businesses and households to spend more, and the economy expands.
This process can be almost magical in its effects: a committee in Washington gives some technical instructions to a trading desk in New York, and just like that, the economy creates millions of jobs.

But sometimes the magic doesn?t work. And this is one of those times.

Har ingen länk till detta men Alan Blinder former Fed vice chairman a Princeton University professor sa följande om Fed agerande: ``He has taken extraordinary measures, things that we haven't seen since the Great Depression,''. ``He's working overtime, literally and figuratively, to get this panic under control. But so far, it's not under control.''

Och allt handlar: ``This is all about money,'' said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois, who has been trading gold since 1973. ``The Fed can control the price of money but the banks still don't want to lend.''

Där har du en ett stort problem som Fed försöker lösa och tror inte att dem kommer att lösa det? vet ni varför? För att alla banker vet att dem har stora problem. Dem äger många värdelösa papper och de vet att andra banker upplever samma problem. Och dem vet att de inte kan sälja dessa papper för dem är värdelösa.
Att skriva ner värdet av dessa papper kommer helt enkelt att sänka betyget AAA till junk?

Det enda dem kan göra nu är att vänta, vinna tid. Dem har inga papper av värde dem kan sälja för att öka Likviditet och därmed undvika kollaps. Och de papper som har ett värde kommer inte att fylla på kassan, därför hoppas man at FED och dem andra investerare hjälper till. Man hoppas med på att krisen helt försvinner och värdet av alla papper dem äger kanske stiger igen? men förgäves.

Det senaste fall för råvaror har mest att göra med Margin Call

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Del 4

PAUL KRUGMAN igen

So Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues have been doing the usual thing: printing up green paper and using it to buy bonds. Unfortunately, the policy isn?t having much effect on the things that matter. Interest rates on government bonds are down ? but financial chaos has made banks unwilling to take risks, and it?s getting harder, not easier, for businesses to borrow money.

As a result, the Fed?s attempt to avert a recession has almost certainly failed. And each new piece of economic data ? like the news that retail sales fell last month ? adds to fears that the recession will be both deep and long

Between 2002 and 2007, false beliefs in the private sector ? the belief that home prices only go up, that financial innovation had made risk go away, that a triple-A rating really meant that an investment was safe ? led to an epidemic of bad lending. Meanwhile, false beliefs in the political arena ? the belief of Alan Greenspan and his friends in the Bush administration that the market is always right and regulation always a bad thing ? led Washington to ignore the warning signs.

Och det finns inget bättre för att förstå det hela än nämna Nouriel Roubini kommentar när han skrev: 'The lack of trust in counterparties -- driven by the opacity and lack of transparency in financial markets, and uncertainty about the size of the losses and who is holding the toxic waste securities -- will add to the impotence of monetary policy and lead to massive hoarding of liquidity that will exacerbate the liquidity and credit crunch.'

Och sist men inte minst John P. Hussman kommentar

If the market was "certain to crash" in the event that Bear Stearns failed, then the market is certain to crash anyway, because Bear Stearns wasn't the last shoe to drop - it was one of the first. Unfortunately, we're standing in a shoe store. Wasn't the market "certain to crash" without the Fed's surprise rate cut in January too? At what point will investors figure out that the liquidity problems are nothing but the precursors of insolvency problems? At what point will investors stop begging the government to save private companies and recognize that the losses should be taken by the stock and bondholders of the offending financial institutions? If the Fed and the Treasury are smart, they will act quickly to figure out how to respond to multiple events like we've seen in recent days, to expedite turnover in ownership and quickly settle the residual claims of bondholders, without the kind of malfeasance reflected in the Bear Stearns rescue.

Vänta tills stormen är över... ni har bara sett den första delen... fler delar lär komma...

Jag kommer förstås att ändra min åsikt när lägget förändras. jag kan inte vara positiv till nåt som inte finns, jag kan inte bygga min framtid på förhoppnigar på att det värsta är över...

Not yet...

ha det så gott

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Wall Street Firms Cut 34,000 Jobs, Most Since 2001 Dot-Com Bust

``This crisis is much worse than 2001 and we don't know how long it's going to last,'' said Jo Bennett, a partner at executive search firm Battalia Winston International in New York. Job cuts ``could be more than 100,000 in a few years.''

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Existing Home Sales Rise In February

Total Total housing inventory fell 3.0 percent at the end of February to 4.03 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.2-month supply in January.

The data for March will be much more important since that is the beginning of the Spring selling season.

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Sweden banking crisis law closer to completion

Minister for Financial Markets Mats Odell estimates the Riksdag will make a decision on the law sometime next year.

"There?s no connection to the current troubles with American and British banks," said Odell.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

THE RED MENACE

COME BACK Karl Marx, all is forgiven. Just when everyone thought that the German philosopher's critique of capitalism had been buried with the Soviet Union, suddenly capitalism reverts to type. It has laid a colossal, global egg and plunged the world economy into precisely the kind of crisis he forecast.

The irony, though, is that this time it isn't the working classes who are demanding that the state should take over, but the banks. The capitalists are throwing themselves on the mercy of government, demanding subsidies and protection from the capitalist market - it's socialism for the banks. Hedge fund managers of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your bonuses.

,,,

According to the Bank for International Settlement in Basel, the global derivatives market is worth some $516 trillion - 10 times the value of all the world's stock markets put together. And much of it is based on very little but leveraged optimism; pieces of paper theoretically based on the price of an empty house in Cleveland, Ohio.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

JPMorgan Chase & Co. quadrupled its offer for Bear Stearns Cos. to $10 a share and struck a deal to buy 39.5 percent of the company without a shareholder vote, making it unlikely opponents can block the takeover.

``It is a done deal,'' said Bruce Foerster, president of South Beach Capital Markets in Miami. ``If JPMorgan lets go, Bear Stearns will go bankrupt. The agitation by shareholders got a better price but this ends the uncertainty.''

Moral hazard reaches comedic proportions

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#5 Sen kanske du missade att Bear Stearns-folk blev erbjudna 1,5-2x årsintäkterna för att gå över? Typ $2 millar för att byta jobb...

Men det är klart, här ska ju visas en sanning ;)

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#10

Förstår inte vad du menar

Sen kanske du missade att Bear Stearns-folk blev erbjudna 1,5-2x årsintäkterna för att gå över? Typ $2 millar för att byta jobb...

menar du 14000 blev erbjudna gå över?

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#11 Oh ja, varenda kotte ned till receptionisten och städaren.

Doh. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- As more than 14,000 Bear Stearns Cos. employees watch the value of their stock sink and brace for firings, some of the company's 550 brokers who handle individual investors' accounts are receiving job offers from competitors promising windfalls of $2 million or more.  

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#13 Du som verkar gilla blomman kan väl kolla upp lite stats. Skulle, utan att ha forskat i detta, tro att denna grupp anställda sällan går arbetslösa mer än enstaka veckor. Jänkarna går väl i snitt arbetslösa < 10 veckor? Dessutom är arbetslösheten inom sektorn låg, typ 2-4%.

Ganska härdat folk också som varit med i berg-och-dalbanan förr. Ger man sig in i leken... 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Reached by phone in Stockholm, Mr. Roubini spoke about current conditions and what he expects next.

Q. Will we see more major banking institutions collapse or get taken out at fire sale prices?


A. Certainly some of the other broker-dealers, like Lehman Brothers [Inc. of New York], have exposure to toxic stuff like mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, as Bear Stearns did. And all of the institutions have the characteristics of being highly leveraged, having funded themselves in forms that are very short and liquid and having done investments that are now highly liquid and highly risky. So I see other institutions being at risk ? absolutely.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"Svenska banker hotas också av finanskrisen"

.....

Morning Coffee

Professor Delong

Sounding the Alarm on the Financial Crisis

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den globala finansiella krisen kan
dämpa tillväxten i Tyskland eftersom det nu är svårt för
företagen att få banklån till investeringar.

Det sade chefen för den tyska
arbetsgivarorganisationen Gesamtmetall, Martin Kannegiesser,
i en tidningsintervju på tisdagen.

"Situationen är extremt obekväm. En sak är klar:
bankerna finner det svårare att ge lån till företag för
investeringar. Det kan kosta tillväxt", sade han till
tidningen Bild, enligt Thomson Financial News.

Han sade att han är för ingripande av regeringen om
krisen skulle eskalera ytterligare.

"Krisen kan bli farlig för alla på grund av bristen
på pengar och förtroende. Därför är jag för en nära
samordning och om det är nödvändigt en samordnad åtgärd av
regeringar så att inte den finansiella krisen spiller över
ytterligare", sade Martin Kannegiesser

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Chicago Fed 

pdf

The three-month moving average index was below the -0.70 threshold in February. Such an occurrence following a period of economic expansion indicates an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. In addition, downward revisions to previously published data, particularly employment-related indicators, lowered the index for the previous two months below the -0.70 threshold. Thus, February marked the third consecutive month the three-month moving average remained below this threshold.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#17

Corporate liquidity begins to dry up

Verklighet 1

Corporate liquidity had risen steadily, from $3.9 trillion in 1999 to $5.5 trillion in June 2007. But at the end of last year, it had fallen to $5.25 trillion, a 5% drop.

Verklighet 2

Despite these incidents, Mr. Carfang notes that for the most part, balance sheets are in remarkably good shape, especially in a recessionary environment. "Corporate balance sheets are the strongest we?ve ever seen for non-financials heading into an environment such as this one," he said. But while the higher costs won?t be fatal to most companies, "in some cases it hurts."

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#18 #19

Junk Bond Losses Top $35 Billion as JPMorgan Says More to Come 

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- High-yield, high-risk bonds are off to their worst start ever, and the biggest investors say there's no recovery in sight.

While the Federal Reserve has slashed benchmark interest rates by 3 percentage points since September, it has been unable to get investors to increase their purchases of the riskiest assets. The declines are choking off financing for speculative- grade companies, boosting defaults. The debt is likely to ``struggle'' for months as the economy enters a recession, according to JPMorgan Securities Inc., the top high-yield research firm in Institutional Investor magazine's annual poll. 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

WASHINGTON (AP) ? Federal bank regulators plan to increase staffing 60 percent in coming months to handle an anticipated surge in troubled financial institutions.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. wants to add 140 workers to bring staff levels to 360 workers in the division that handles bank failures, John Bovenzi, the agency's chief operating officer, said Tuesday.

"We want to make sure that we're prepared," Bovenzi said, adding that most of the hires will be temporary and based in Dallas. 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#21 Tyder på god framförhållning. Det tar tid att rekrytera. 

#17 #18 #19

1)

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Finanskrisen i USA har förvärrats
och det är bara en tidsfråga innan den påverkar företagen i
USA och så småningom eventuellt även andra marknader i
världen.

Det menar Volvos vd Leif Johansson i en intervju med
Dagens Industri som publicerades på onsdagen.

"Det som bara varit en finansoro har nu blivit mer.
Nu börjar det också märkas i likviditeten i det amerikanska
banksystemet, och det är inte en fråga om, utan när det här
påverkar företagen. Genom nedgången i USA och den starka
tillväxten på övriga marknader stod Nordamerika för inte mer
än 20 procent av omsättningen i slutet av 2007. All visdom
och konventionell erfarenhet säger att vad som sker i USA
sprider sig till andra delar av världen. Vi kan redan se
tendenser till detta", sade Leif Johansson till tidningen.

Vad gäller Europa är tonen fortsatt optimistiskt. EU
håller på att skapa bättre spelregler och tillväxten och
demokratiseringen i öst bådar enligt Volvo-chefen gott.

"Utifrån vad vi tror oss veta om världen i dag, med
till exempel Asiens framväxt, så tror jag på ett rätt
framgångsrikt Europa", säger han.

Volvo har fortfarande problem att fullt ut möta den
starka efterfrågan på marknaderna utanför Nordamerika.

"Vi bygger gradvis upp en allt större kapacitet men i
takt med att vi får bort tidigare flaskhalsar så kommer det
nya. Inom den egna produktionen är det till exempel motorer
och växellådor och från underleverantörer axlar och däck",
säger Leif Johansson till Dagens Industri.

En av Volvos större ägare, Cevian med vd Christer
Gardell, har ett flertal gånger framfört kritik mot Volvos
division VCE. Leif Johansson säger att bolaget inte heller
tycker att resultatet var särskilt bra och pekar på att
flaskhalsarna vid fabriken i Eskilstuna ger problem. Men han
har fortsatt förtroende för VCE-ledningen.

2)

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den internationella
likviditetskrisen har förstärkts de senaste veckorna och har
övergått i en finanskris. Mer spiller över till Norden än
tidigare, men man kan vara lugn för de nordiska bankerna.

Det sade Nordeas vd Christian Clausen till Dagens
Industri i onsdagens upplaga.

"Importgraden har ökat och det skapar oro. Hur mycket
vi kommer att importera av den ekonomiska krisen vet vi inte.
Men realekonomiskt syns det inga spår av krisen när man går
på Biblioteksgatan eller när man träffar storföretag", sade
han.

Norska staten, Nordea och DNB Nor har som delägare i
Eksportfinans meddelat att de deltar som garanter för det
norska finansinstitutets värdepappersportfölj, som drabbats
av orealiserade förluster.

"Vi får en resultateffekt på cirka 10 miljoner euro i
januari och februari. Sedan kommer effekterna för mars", sade
Christian Clausen.

Hur länge finansiella företag i Norden kan förbli
oberörda av krisen i USA kan Nordeas vd inte svara på.

"Priset på credit default-swaparna ökar. Det har
ganska stora betydelse för kreditmarknaderna och påverkar
finansbranschen och företagen också. Men Nordea har
tillsammans med andra nordiska banker de lägsta kostnaderna
för upplåning i Europa"./AJ

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's biggest bank, said the U.S. subprime market collapse and slowing economic growth will make it harder to reach a full-year profit forecast.

Further possible asset writedowns and less favorable economic conditions would ``adversely affect our ability to achieve our pretax profitability objective,'' said Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann in the annual report published today by the Frankfurt-based bank. The near-term outlook continues to be ``very challenging.''

Aktien faller med  4%

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

 sticker shock and awe

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

TREASURY CHIEF EXPRESSES DOUBT ON LAWMAKERS' EFFORTS TO FIX MORTGAGE CRISIS

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Wednesday continued to resist Congressional efforts to stem the negative consequences to homeowners of the housing market collapse.

Opposition from the White House could make it difficult for Congress to pass any legislation to help homeowners battling the mortgage crisis. "We will continue to pursue policies that strike the right balance: that do not slow the housing correction, yet also help avoid preventable foreclosures and unnecessary capital market turmoil," he said in a speech at the U.S.

Chamber of Commerce. Paulson said the Federal Reserve needs more information from investment banks now that the central bank is lending funds to the institutions

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Recession stimulus check. se bild

Paulson resists more government steps in mortgage crisis

Paulson repeated his call for U.S. financial institutions to raise additional capital to strengthen their balance sheets. "Go out and get it where it's available," he said. "It's available today."

Vem om inte fed skall göra det...

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Dennis P. Lockhart
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The Rotary Club of Chattanooga
Chattanooga, Tenn.
March 27, 2008

Looking ahead, my forecast has been affected both by an economic slowdown that has been sharper than I had expected and the recurring spells of financial market turmoil. A few months ago our forecast at the Atlanta Fed saw growth slow in the first half of 2008, then pick up in the second half of the year. But it now appears to me that the contraction in housing and the dampening effects of financial turmoil on household and business spending could persist through the remainder of this year.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Obama cites recession

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Det är inte första gången man varnar...

Merrill may write down billions more: analysts

Merrill Lynch & Co. may record $4.5 billion to $6 billion in write-downs from exposure to mortgage-related securities and troubled bond insurers during the first quarter, analysts said Thursday.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

bubble på bubble på bubble...

Banks Fail to Lower Mortgage Rates as Bernanke Cuts

``The Fed is trying to drive a car with only slight control of the steering wheel and no control of the gas or the brakes,'' Clive Granger, the 2003 Nobel laureate in economics and professor emeritus at University of California, San Diego, said in an interview. ``In order to stabilize the economy, people need access to mortgages at rates they can afford, and so far the Fed hasn't been able to do much about that.''

......

``Mortgage rates should be dropping more, because of how bad the economy is,'' said Killian, 53, who now rents an apartment and wants to buy a house or a condominium in San Diego for $350,000 to $400,000. ``I'm going to sit tight and see what happens.''

Vernon Eagle, of Cambridge, Massachusetts, is among the many move-up buyers who are waiting out the housing decline. He owns a three-bedroom house near Harvard University and wants to move to a larger home in a Boston suburb. His plan is on hold until prices and rates reach bottom.

``I don't see us moving to a bigger place until the shakeout ends,'' said Eagle, 59, a Harvard doctoral candidate.

Och det finns många som väntar...

bubble på bubble

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#31 Kan du, eller någon annan, förklara för mig varför man mäter 30-årsräntan på bolån vs 10-årsräntan (istället för 30-årsräntan) på statsobligationer? 

Blir inte det äpplen vs päron?

Spreaden Freddie Mac 30-år mortage vs. 30-år statspapper är nere på -169 punkter nu. År 2000 var den nere på -260 bps. Så det är låga nivåer nu, men inga sjukt låga nivåer. Ungefär samma som varit sen år 2005.

Och sen är det väl ändå ganska så självklart varför boräntorna inte följer med ned i riktigt samma takt? Eller hur?

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Tror att det har med fast och rörlig ränta att göra.

eller helt enkelt man får kanske bättre betalt.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#33 Att inte räntan hängt med ned har såklart att göra med den justering av priset på risk som gjorts i marknaden. Inget med ökad vinstmarginal etc. att göra, bankerna har dyrare upplåning. Högre spread mot statspapper, än tidigare. Måste därmed ta bättre betalt.

Frågan kvarstår varför man jämför spreaden, och därmed riskpålägget, på en 30-årig bostadsobligation med en 10-årig statsobligation. 30 år vs 30 år vore väl mest korrekt för att se riskpålägget på den tidshorisonten.

Lite källkritik är bra ibland, även om det är Bloomberg som är källan :) 

 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Credit crunch

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#35 Försöker du aktivt låta bli att föra en seriös diskussion?

Ibland undrar man ju. Rolig bild. Skulle kanske ha målat frågan i #33, #34 istället? :P 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Du får hitta svaret själv...

Så du bidrar med nåt jag kan lära mig från dig...

Sen en viktigt sak... Jag har aldrig uppfattat du är här för att diskutera... du har en annan agenda som jag tyvärr inte har tid med det...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#37 Jag försöker då och då ställa frågor på det du kopierar rakt av från tidningar vi alla kan läsa på nätet gratis. Men möts ständigt av icke-svar eller tystnad.

Jag agenda? Är det inte Du som flera gånger per dag kopierar in utdrag ur artiklar som alla pekar på en och samma sak?

Sen när man försöker gå lite med på djupet, då är det stopp. Häpp. 

Klart jag kan skriva något du kan lära dig av, men till vilken nytta när det sen inte blir någon diskussion utan bara möts av ännu en tidningsartikel?

I all välmening, jag är inte här för att provocera enbart. Även om det kan uppfattas så när jag ställer mina frågor :) 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Bara för att det är fredag så gör vi väl ett, nytt, försök då :)

Appropå rubriken till #0 om svart svan: TED-spreaden, som vi normalt/historiskt finner ligga kring 25-50 bps, ett bra likviditetsmått och kan även ses som mått på riskaptit. Finns andra och ev. bättre mått också. Mattas av ordentligt just nu, men med viss tvekan kulle jag säga om man ser till vilken komponent som drar ned spreaden just nu....

Så oavsett vad som skrivs i tidningarna och i svarta rubriker här dag in och ut så är detta ett mått på vad marknaden säger själv. Och det är väl det som är viktigt, inte vad en journalist väljer att skriva om för stunden och egna syften? =)

Fria tolkningar, varsågod. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

38 stry, kan du ställa dina frågor till internet o sedan komma med svaren, där finns det miljoner människor som har tid 

Mvh werik1

bravo 

Mvh werik1

#36 Måla :) haha. Nice one. 

Mvh Corpsee

#39

Kallar du följande fråga en djup diskussion " varför man jämför spreaden, och därmed riskpålägget, på en 30-årig bostadsobligation med en 10-årig statsobligation. 30 år vs 30 år vore väl mest korrekt för att se riskpålägget på den tidshorisonten.

eller en teknisk fråga...

sen angånde #31

Har du förstått poängen med länken...

Som avlutades med bubbel bubble...???

Sen, det inte första gången jag kopierar länker...men har inte dessa länker ett värde eller?

Om du inte tycker det så varför läser dem...

Man ska vara lite ödmjuk...

Jag är inte här för granska alla källor...

Du vet vad jag tycker om börsen och ekonomin... jag svänger inte höger och vänster.

Och jag vet vad som håller på att hända...och jag vet att du tycker att jag har fel...

Innerst inne så hoppas jag att jag kommer att ha fel... men jag rädd att jag kommer att ha rätt...

Det värsta har inte börjat...

Du eller jag eller Bernanke kommer inte att stoppa det...

Varför startar du inte en sträng där du kan skriva dina tankar om börsen och ekonomin...

Och berätta för oss varför allt är underbart...

Svaret på din fråga finns på bilden

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Du Vet vad som kommer hända?

Nice! Skriv din slutsats för jag tror du är ensman i världen att veta.

Att Du inte kommer stoppa hyser jag inga som helst tvivel inför.

Att granska källor ska nog ses som en nödvändighet.

Du svarade inte på frågan om 30åringen.

Mvh Corpsee

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#43 Ja, såklart jag fattade poängen med länken. Man löser inte en bubbla med att skapa en nu låge-ränte-bubbla. Det fattar alla när man ser FED sänka, utan att läsa en kilometerlång artikel i Bloomberg. Men nu har ju FED plockat fram lite andra verktyg ur arsenalen är bara räntesänkningar. Om dem kunde vi ha en djupare diskussion? Finns mycket negativt att säga om dem, men också bra saker. Men att jmf 10-års ränta mot 30-års ränta är fortfarande fel, teknisk fråga eller ej.

Sanningen är sällan svart eller vit. Läser man dina strängar är det dock mycket svart. So be it, om det vore för att andra gav sig in i diskussionen och nyanserade det hela något. Blir lite väl mycket monolog annars.... för detta är väl ett forum (SAOB: "där frågor diskuteras o. avgöras")?

Jag har startat strängar där jag sagt vad jag tror. D v s att OMX skall ned -30% längre fram. Kallar du det att jag tycker ekonomin och allt är så "underbart"? I så fall läser du vad jag skriver som fan läser bibeln.

Att du inte är här för att granska källor är väl rätt uppenbart? Då de ofta används till att styrka din önskade vinkling i frågan. Och det är ju ganska lätt nu när det kommer så mycket negativa nyheter :)) Straffspark.

Så om vi kan skita i diskussionen om diskussionen och återgå till ämnet istället? Jag gjorde ett försök i #39. Något som dels styrker din negativa syn på ekonomin i allmänhet och finanssektorn/bankerna i synnerhet, men även har en del motsägelser.... Nå?

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

The clever boys at the Fed...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Vad skriver du om i din grupp? 

det krävs mer för att lösa det hela...

en av dem är saving,,,

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#46

Vad betyder den bilden? 

Mvh Corpsee

#47

förstår inte vad du menar.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Just det, vad betyder bilden? Vad säger den, jag förstår inte bilden. Som du la in. 

Mvh Corpsee

Jag undrar eftersom du väcker så pass många "känslor" i övriga forumet och bad om ursäkt förra veckan för att du startat en grupp och av den anledningen inte skulle skriva så mycket i övriga, därav undrade jag vad man missar med att inte vara med?

Din syn på det hela går inte direkt att misstolka, så jag undrade bara vilken information man då går miste om.

Mvh 

#51

the great reflation #46

Man försökte undveka depression genom att inte upprepa samma misstag men vad blev det ...

buble på bubble...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Stry - Det är meningslöst att diskutera med spx970.

Mvh Silicon Valley

#53

svar på #51 tack? 

Mvh Corpsee

#52

 Det var aldrig tal om starta egen grupp.

Och jag bad inte om ursäkt...

Jag vill att denna forum skall utvecklas bättre så ag därför bestämde att en del av mina inlägg kommer att vara tillgängliga bara för dem som betalar den fria medlemsavgiften...

Om ja väcker starka känslor... Det är inte mitt problem...

Det är dem som har problem... och behöver nog hjälp...

jag glad att vi inte lever i en diktatur... då har jag blivir stopat direkt...

Det fria ordet lever vidare...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#55 svar på #53 via #51 tack. Förstår inte sambanden. Och vad är det du pratar om?

Och mad menas med #53? 

Mvh Corpsee

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

>> spx970: Var #39 totalt o-intressant eller är det något jag bör förtydliga/förklara? Trodde den skulle vara bensin på din brasa, men väcka lite dubier ändå?

#56 Så var man klassad som psykiskt störd i behov av hjälp nu också? Den tackar jag för och sätter in på pluskontot. Mycket ska man höra...

Leve det fria ordet! Men då skall man också stå till svars och inte sky debatten som pesten.

#53 Facit har vi ej ännu. Inflation är en möjlig effekt av FEDs agerande, ja. Men facit har bara du tydligen.

#46 Ja det där är ju ett klassiskt samband. Nu har vi dock en effekt som påverkat långa delen av yieldkurvan, nämligen asiatiska och arabiska m fl köpare. Recession är vi i nu, det vet vi med stor sannolikhet. Sen är gold bugs så roliga, märks att de är jänkare och tänker allt i fallande USD :) För undra hur Gold deflaterat med Euro ser ut. Eller varför inte Yen :))

#48 Jupp den där måste upp, har det snackats om i flera år. Kommer förmodligen nu. Vart tror du de sparpengarna tar vägen spx970?

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#58

 #56 Så var man klassad som psykiskt störd i behov av hjälp nu också? Den tackar jag för och sätter in på pluskontot. Mycket ska man höra

Jag har inte tänkt på dig men om du känner att du tillhör denna grupp så det är väldigt tråkigt...

ha en trevlig helg.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 #58

Vart tror du de sparpengarna tar vägen?

Jag har ingen bra svar... men man bör börja här

se bild.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Folks, LISTEN UP, because THIS IS THE TRUTH AND IT CAN NO LONGER BE DENIED:

The credit default swaps written to "protect" the ratings on the CDOs and other complex instruments out there are WORTHLESS.

THEY ARE WORTH ZERO.

ZERO.

Drill that into your head until it sticks, because IT IS A FACT. They are worth ZERO because the people who wrote them DO NOT HAVE THE MONEY TO PAY AND THEY HAVE NO PRAYER IN HELL OF BEING ABLE TO EARN IT BEFORE THE PAYMENTS MUST BE MADE.

The model of EVER INCREASING LEVERAGE is and ALWAYS WAS bankrupt.

It was a FICTION. .................................. osv    

Bra sida men många grejer kan jag inte bedöma då man bara kan plus å minus.
 

Mvh Jamenvisst

#61

redan den 23/ 9 la jag följande hans video här på AG

här

Fedsday Stupidity

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#61= Mayyyybe! Oh, And CDS Explosion, Part 2      karl denninger

600 triljoner dollar, ekonomerna lånar ekvationer från termodynamiken, fysiken o matematiken, sedan får dom nobelpris för stölden som dom inte förstår, LTCM

This has been proven over and over again, from the crash of 1929 to the '87 "portfolio insurance" blowup to LTCM and 00-03 Tech Wreck. The story is never different

There is no way that a financial system geared at 20 or 30:1 is stable or sustainable. Regulators need to step in here and now to FORCE that crap to stop by whatever means are necessary = den nya regulatorn är FED, dom gör presis vad dom vill, folk fattar nada

varifrån plockade FED 450 miljarder dollar,  råkade dom ha det i fickan, ja där finns 600 triljoner dollar om sä behövs

verkligheten är parodi på YOUTUBE videorna, FED är presis den ' outrageous conspiracy theories ', av bankirer som alla följer som förhäxade, vad skall dom hitta på nu, skall dom sänka räntan under 0 (noll) eller skall dom tafsa, eller baila, eller plungeprotecta, hemligt som fan är det

tolstoi kallar det för girighet, faraorna hade bra koll på slavarna

Mvh werik1

Germany Fears Global Meltdown 

Mvh werik1

#62 Haha, låg den snubben snorkort eller? Jösses. Blanda in politik i sin daytrading, killen är pank inom 1 år.

Även om han har rätt angående bailouts så... stackarn. Jamen det är väl självklart, har man själv ingen accountability så kan man ju chansa på att faller en bank så faller inte resten. Men som ansvarig så tar man inte gärna ett sånt bet?

#61 Djup analys :) Det som står där säger implicit att alla underliggande obligationer skulle defaulta. Troligt? Det får man nog själv avgöra.

#60 Ja nog finns hål att täppa där.... sen bör man ju se bakomliggande till financial debt. Kanske har du siffrorna till din graf, eller var den kopierad?
Savings = Investment + Budget deficit - Trade deficit. Något måste ge sig :)

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#65 

Den 23/09  skrev du följande om videon

#0 Vilken nöt. Han har inte många rätt den killen...

Olja ATH? I reella termer och för resten av världen (ja det finns andra länder än USA) dollarjusterat? Knappast.

Räntesänkning bailar ut? Vad snackar han om, det är för att om möjligt rädda och tillföra likviditet för dem sin inte gjort bort sig utan bara behöver finansiera sin dagliga verksamhet som vanligt.

Sitter där vid sina TA-charts och svär över politik? Trada på politik, vilket skämt.

.


|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Och idag skriver du

#62 Haha, låg den snubben snorkort eller? Jösses. Blanda in politik i sin daytrading, killen är pank inom 1 år.

Även om han har rätt angående bailouts så... stackarn. Jamen det är väl självklart, har man själv ingen accountability så kan man ju chansa på att faller en bank så faller inte resten. Men som ansvarig så tar man inte gärna ett sånt bet?

Så du märker alla som tänker annorlunda är nötter, alla som har en annan åsikt är dumma...

När skall du lära dig möta en annan åsikt med respekt... när.... när...

Så jag är nte ensam.. alla som inte håller med dig har fel... är nöt...

Det värsta jag vet hos en människa när människan tittar ner på en annan människa pågrund att hon har en annan åsikt...

Har du aldrig haft fel...? Och det viktigaste har du lärt dig nåt från dina fel...

Det verkar inte så...

-----

Angånde sparande. Du stälde en fråga och jag besvarade men graf som redan säger mycket

Och vad är ditt svar...Kanske har du siffrorna till din graf, eller var den kopierad?

Du hela tiden kommer med personliga angrepp... och det är inte första gången...

Du har ett stort problem stry...

Du sitter högst upp på en träd... den dagen du kommer ner från träden då kan jag diskutera med dig...

Den dagen du lär använda ett neutralt språkbruk  då kan jag diskuterara med dig.

Sen det viktigt att man måste visa respekt...

Jag kräver inte att du svarar på mina frågor och du har inte rätt att att kräva ett svar från mig...

Respekt, utifrån mina ögon och inte dina...

Det är mina krav... om det inte passar dig så kör vidare...

Adjö

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#52

Det var aldrig tal om starta egen grupp, ser att den nu halverats i antal medlemmar, vad beror det på?

Och jag bad inte om ursäkt..., det kanske kan vara nyttigt när åsikterna ger en never ending story, min kompis hade alltid kört 10km fortare än jag.., en gång i tiden.

Jag vill att denna forum skall utvecklas bättre så ag därför bestämde att en del av mina inlägg kommer att vara tillgängliga bara för dem som betalar den fria medlemsavgiften... , ok det var kanske en opponent som då inte betalade den avgiften som kommenterade.

Om ja väcker starka känslor... Det är inte mitt problem... , det går väl alltid att provocera i skrift, och när man förhållandevis ofta hamnar i en liknade situation, kan ju debatten hamna i ett läge som inte var syftet.

Det är dem som har problem... och behöver nog hjälp... , den kommentaren ger inte direkt pluspoäng om man vill komma framåt.

jag glad att vi inte lever i en diktatur... då har jag blivir stopat direkt... , den återkommer jag till.

Mvh

#67 

Ser att den nu halverats i antal medlemmar, vad beror det på?

Det är inte mitt fel i alla fall.

Den fråga du bör ställa till dem som har varit länge på denna forum. Om  du tror eller nån annan, att folk flyr forumet pågrund av mina inlägg så bara att säga det. 

Din fråga bör diskuteras i en speciell  sträng... .. titta bara vem som skriver på chaten... vad skriver man om... sällan jag läser nåt vettigt...

ok det var kanske en opponent som då inte betalade den avgiften som kommenterade. 

Nej, för det finns många av sådana opponenter som betalar avgiften.

AG gav mig en möjlighet att skriva... jag tackar och försöker hjälpa...

Det går väl alltid att provocera i skrift, och när man förhållandevis ofta hamnar i en liknade situation, kan ju debatten hamna i ett läge som inte var syftet.

jag tar inte andras inlägg som provocerande... Det en åsikt som jag måste respektera  men provocerande när man börjar nedvärdera folk... eller se ner på dem eller man skall bestämma över vad som skall skrivas och inte skrivas.

det kanske kan vara nyttigt när åsikterna ger en never ending story, min kompis hade alltid kört 10km fortare än jag.., en gång i tiden.

Jag hoppas att era bromsar fungerar... så ni inte kör över ett barn som ute och leka...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Trevlig helg!

Har fått tillräckligt med svar.. 

Tack detsamma.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

En intressant som jag glömde lägga som handlar om en jämförelse mellan krisen som Japan upplevde och dagens kris i USA.

Fofattaren till texten tror att USA kommer att klara sig bätter än Japan...

US can fast exit from bad times

Personally, I think the US situation is shameful, messy. It does reflect hubris, greed, arrogance - all those bad things that some people associate with Wall Street, that everybody thought were really great until the market turned bad. And there are some similarities with Japan. But the bottom line is I think we will be out of this problem far, far faster than Japan was and that the cost of the losses in the economy will be much smaller than they have been in Japan.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

citat CGVR:

Dock ligger OMX fortfarande i läge där en vändning uppåt - eller om ej vändning - så fortsatta sidledes rörelser är inneliggande alternativ.

Eftersom jag hela tiden tidigare - sedan inledningen av nedgången från toppen - angivit det nu aktuella kilintervallet som lägsta naturliga korrnivå på hela uppgången sedan 2002/2003, finns det ingen anledning att ändra på denna grundsyn.

Det man kan säga med grafen som grund för ett FA-perspektiv är att OMX och många av de övriga börserna nu dalat till nivåer där de flesta av marknadens analytiker anser att läget är så avgörande att konkreta kraftfulla insatser måste göras för att undvika en ordentligt negativ fortsatt spiral.

Alltså: FishNet®-grafen ligger helt i balans med hur FED och marknaden i övrigt tycks se på läget. Nu gäller det! Får vi inte stopp på fallen innan exempelvis OMXS30 går igenom kilgolvet, så innebär det inledningen till en serie riktigt allvarliga signaler. Vinna eller försvinna - ner i djupets mörker?
Dock ligger OMX fortfarande i läge där en vändning uppåt - eller om ej vändning - så fortsatta sidledes rörelser är inneliggande alternativ.

Eftersom jag hela tiden tidigare - sedan inledningen av nedgången från toppen - angivit det nu aktuella kilintervallet som lägsta naturliga korrnivå på hela uppgången sedan 2002/2003, finns det ingen anledning att ändra på denna grundsyn.

Det man kan säga med grafen som grund för ett FA-perspektiv är att OMX och många av de övriga börserna nu dalat till nivåer där de flesta av marknadens analytiker anser att läget är så avgörande att konkreta kraftfulla insatser måste göras för att undvika en ordentligt negativ fortsatt spiral.

Alltså: FishNet®-grafen ligger helt i balans med hur FED och marknaden i övrigt tycks se på läget. Nu gäller det! Får vi inte stopp på fallen innan exempelvis OMXS30 går igenom kilgolvet, så innebär det inledningen till en serie riktigt allvarliga signaler. Vinna eller försvinna - ner i djupets mörker?

Det här skrevs i mitten av mars när vi var strax under 900-nivån, med mitt öga och min hjärna anser jag det vara en intressant och balanserad bedömning, huruvida detta stämmer med verkligheten eller ej framöver det vet jag inte, dock förefaller det väl med bl.a Slakhanes bedömning om att bottenläget var vid densamma.

Citat ChrisL

Japp man skall försöka hålla sig till en vinnande strategi i den mån det nu går. Apropå det där chartet, den stora den kan likväl utvecklas åt andra hållet med lite fantasi och då talar vi om en 2100 i Omx. Det hade varit något att ta position för i morgon. Mmm 2100 i Omx kanske skulle skriva en trovärdig analys :-)).

Den bästa HS-formationen ur positiv synvinkel är inte det när den visar sig felaktig och det drar vidare uppåt?

Om vi nu påbörjat en vändning kan det ju vara intressant att inte låsa sig vid det negativa scenariot utan se möjligheterna med en eventuell trendvändning, att den ekonomiska situationen och dess flöde är aningen annorlunda idag rent tekniskt sett och då syftar jag till de tekniska förutsättningarna, snabbheten världen över med nyhetsflödet på internet samt att avstånden krymps alltmer, så ger det naturligtvis ytterligare möjligheter till korruption av ett helt annat slag som fanns tidigare, intressant häromdagen när man rånar banken på en miljard med lite dessinfo, girigheten är sannolikt den största boven framgent, och med tanke på att marknadsaktörerna kan tjäna pengar på nedkörningar likväl som uppkörningar, så tenderar marknaden, grundidén att börsen alltid går upp att dö ut, om girigheten blir för stor.

Bara några tankar och funderingar

Hälsar..

Om vi nu påbörjat en vändning kan det ju vara intressant att inte låsa sig vid det negativa scenariot utan se möjligheterna med en eventuell trendvändning. 

Jag kan bara hålla med dig och har sagt det flera gånger om jag märker att processen på en botten är klar så kommer att skriva och högt och tydlig att nu är dags tt gå lång.

Men jag kan inte ta det ansvaret nu för några från CNBC, bloomberg eller olika blog skriker på att vi har sett botten .

Sen dem kommer aldrig att skriva och tala om botten om dem var verkligen sett botten...

Det är gerigheten som driver dem till att ropa botten och inget annat...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#66 Mitt svar var för att det men önskvärd tydlighet framgick att han torskat stort den dagen och ägnade hela "talet" till att spy galla över det som han ansåg gått emot honom. 90-95% av daytraders går torsk, i min värld är han förmodligen en av dem. Nog svårt att daytrada på systematiska grunder, hur ska det då inte vara på politisk känsla? Tillåt mig att tvivla.

"Har du aldrig haft fel...?", jag har dagligen fel. Lär mig gärna av egna och andras misstag, varför är det då fel att påtala när man upplever att någon annan upprepar något man tror är fel? Som att daytrada på känslogrund. Been there, done that. Då gick jag minus.

Anledningen till mina provokationer som ", eller var den kopierad", är för att den vanliga vägen får jag inget svar från dig. Bara total tystnad, ännu en skämtteckning eller att du fortsätter din monolog igen. Så då försöker jag provocera lite i hopp med att du skall svara iaf. Men återigen hoppade du över huvudfrågan och började prata debatteknik.

Klart man inte kan utkrävas svar. Men vi kan väl ändå förväntas föra den löpande diskussion kring det som läggs upp här på AG av dig/mig/andra?

#39 struntade du helt i, även fast det var ett seriös försök från min sida att snacka lite om USA:s finansiella stabilitet. I #58 svarade du dock konstruktivt på i #60. Hoppfullt tänkte jag :) Men så är vi på ruta ett igen nu.

Så du får väl skriva dina strängar i fred nudå, fria från debatt. Adjö.

 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inget botten i sikte...

En del svar finns att läsa på John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter

It's time to hit the send button. So, let's wrap things up. Those who think we are close to a bottom in the housing bubble are engaged in wishful thinking. You read above what those who really do their homework are saying. If we had more space, I could give you even more statistics and forecasts from Gary Shilling, Greg Weldon, Dr. Nouriel Roubini and others who do their homework, rather than trying to see a trend in one month's statistics. Many of the home sales from February are foreclosures. Those are going to rise. The key pieces of data to look at will be the months of supply of homes for sale and foreclosures. Until the supply of homes gets back to 6 months, we will probably not have seen the bottom. Until we have worked through the millions of foreclosures that are in front of us, it is hard to think in terms of a bottom.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Svaren är väl finns väl först när man sett vad som hänt, innan dess är det väl endast en bedömning av tidigare fakta innan det hänt ?

En i mängden fria tolkningar av det s.k läget.

#74

I #58 svarade du dock konstruktivt på i #60

Om jag svarade konstruktivt varför kan du inte fortsätta vara konstruktivt...?

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#77 "Savings = Investment + Budget deficit - Trade deficit. Något måste ge sig :)" var mitt konstruktiva svar i #65 som vi kanske kunde snacka vidare utifrån?

Vad gäller gliringen om kopierad så var det som jag sagt en reflexartad provokation baserad på tidigare svar, en onödig sådan. Så den ber jag om ursäkt för.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

600 triljoner dollar, liten del går i rätta fickor

business daily, bbc radio

hon som höll med dom konservativa förlorade allt,

han som höll med spx970 vann $500 000 000 på

put derivatives där idioten merril lynch var utställaren  

Mvh werik1

bankirernas massmedia beättar sällan om vinnarna , men är väldigt snabba  när bankirerna behöver hjälp, annars raseras hela världen 

men vi har ju bara en gud o det är bankiren, detta är en vits om nån undrar

Mvh werik1

In principle, credit-default swaps help banks and other investors pass along risks they don't want to keep. But in the case of subprime mortgages, the derivatives have magnified the effect of losses, because they allowed bankers to create an unlimited number of CDOs linked to the same mortgage-backed bonds

 The second-biggest CDO and MBS underwriter, 85 year-old New York investment bank Bear Stearns .....


merrils exempel

Mvh werik1

#78

Tack, och vi kan snacka vidare ,,, det är det viktigaste...

#79

The Man Who Shorted Subprime

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Dessa rader i Mauldins brev tycker jag är värda att läsa om man nu tror på någon slags moral!

One final thought: If we do end up with a government bailout, and I agree that it's likely, I sincerely hope that no one who cannot document that the information they submitted for their no-documentation loan was accurate will be given any assistance. If you lied, you do not deserve taxpayer money. If you took out a loan on which you could not demonstrate that you could make the payments, just because you wanted to profit from a resale of a home which was "surely" going to rise, you should not get tax-payer money. For every person we help like that, we keep a house from going down to a price that someone who deserves a home and has played by the rules could buy. Just my take.

MVH nisse45

Joseph Stiglitz  

Mvh werik1

#79 "Idioten Merrill Lynch var utställare..."

Nu är jag inte insatt i detaljerna i just denna deal och om några egentliga fakta finns offentliga. Men hur stor sannolikhet tror du det är att dessa s k "idioter" (Merrill & JPM) tog en sådan position o-hedgat och/eller på egen bok?

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#75

Buyers' Revenge:
Trash the House
After Foreclosure

"We expect them to be trashed," Mr. Haddad says of the homes he buys. He prefers to call in the sheriff when he needs to evict hold-out occupants; for him, paying cash is a "last resort." 

Titta också på Videon

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Davidowitz Says Stores Face `Apocalypse' With Consumers: Video 

Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., talks with Bloomberg's Betty Liu from New York about the outlook for U.S. department stores, the impact of Federal Reserve monetary policy and tax rebates on consumer spending and the economy. J.C. Penney Co., the third-largest U.S. department-store chain, plunged the most in three weeks in New York trading after the retailer cut its quarterly sales and profit forecasts on slower consumer spending. Bloomberg's Julie Hyman also speaks.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#87

Allt hänger ihop...

Monetary policy and the state of the economy

Nouriel Roubini Testifies to Congress

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is calling for extensive, wide-ranging reforms to the way the government regulates financial markets, including proposals to give the Federal Reserve more power and create new bodies to monitor mortgages and other transactions 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

En av det roligaste jag har sett...Men det talar om det som väntar många...

The Job

------

Recession: The Movie

Trailer: Recession: The Movie 

Det är en politisk trailer , men tycker att trailor är väl gjord

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Lång artikel att läsa... innehåller mycket information om

The 1929 Stock Exchange Crash, The Great Depression and lessons for today

fall of the GREATEST MONETARY "TOWER OF BABEL", the

Wednesday October 30 1929 - R.W. Mc Neel, a market analyst with the New York Herald Tribune says - This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J.P. Morgan - that any man that is bearish on America will go broke!"  

....

To make matters worse, 9 000 banks went bankrupt, as they had invested their clients' money on the stock exchange. Many bank customers that had not invested in the stock market but left their money safely in the bank, so they thought, also lost over $140 billion due to a run on the banks and uninsured bank failures. The money was gone, it had been lent out or was sitting in the stock market It seemed like the entire country was bankrupt

"You'll see! You'll see! You'll see!"

How could this have happened? Did nobody see the crash coming? Where were the economists and advisers? Were they all blind?

Benjamin Anderson, Senior economist for Chase National Bank accurately summed up the problem after the crash when he said

"Basically, our present troubles grow out of the excessively cheap money and unlimited bank credit available for capital uses and speculation from early 1922 until 1928. There is no intoxicant more dangerous than cheap money and excessive credit".

...

John Maynard Keynes, the father of macroeconomics lost £1 million in the crash. He was reportedly warned about a possible crash but said "There will be no more crashes in our lifetime".

Irvin Fisher, the great American economist, who had said that Wall Street will not experience anything in the nature of a crash, lost $140 million on the stock market

In June of 1930, U.S. President Herbert Hoover declared The depression is over".

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#31

#32

#34

 Frågan kvarstår varför man jämför spreaden, och därmed riskpålägget, på en 30-årig bostadsobligation med en 10-årig statsobligation. 30 år vs 30 år vore väl mest korrekt för att se riskpålägget på den tidshorisonten.

#45

Men att jmf 10-års ränta mot 30-års ränta är fortfarande fel, teknisk fråga eller ej.

En del av svaret hittar du här...

the 30 year fixed rate mortgage is based on the 10 Year Treasury note?s yield. The 10 year?s yield or effective interest rate is determined on the open market, and is constantly changing and represents what large institutional investors are willing to pay for a "risk free" 10 year investment. Why is it "risk free?" The 10-year is considered risk-free because it is issued by the US Government in US Dollars, which the government prints. There is no default risk because the Government prints the money.

-----------------------------------------

eller här

Mortgage-backed security prices are highly correlated with the prices of U.S. Treasury bonds. This means the price of a mortgage-backed security backed by 30-year mortgages will move with the price of the U.S. Treasury five-year note or the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond based on a financial principal known as duration. (In practice, a 30-year mortgage's duration is closer to the five-year note, but the market tends to use the 10-year bond as a benchmark.) This also means that the interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages offered to consumers should move up or down with the yield of the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond. (A bond's yield is a function of its coupon rate and price.)

.....................

Mortgages are priced for sale to attract investors who seek fixed income investments. The competition for the investor's money is all the other options in the bond market. So, the mortgage rates (yields) rise and fall with those competing investments to a greater or lesser degree. Fixed mortgage rates, like other bonds, track US Treasury bonds quite well. Since Treasury obligations are backed by the 'full faith and credit' of the United States, they are the benchmark for many other bonds.

When you hear or see bond prices displayed, make sure you understand that bonds have both a price and a yield, and they move opposite of each other. So, when you hear that 'the bond market rallied today' or that 'bonds closed up 2/32nds today', that means that the price of the bonds went up, so the yield went down. A decrease in the yield is good news for mortgage rates. Professional money managers constantly strive to obtain high-yielding instruments at a given level of risk and thus money shuffles from place to place (or from a US Treasury to a MBS and visa versa) in search of the highest paying yield. Although the relationship isn't a fixed one, mortgage rates follow similar patterns as the YIELD of the 10-year US Treasury.

Jag sa att det är en teknisk fråga för det viktigaste är inte om 30 åriga eller 10 årige

So what moves mortgage rates? The economy, the expectations of the economy, supply and demand of the bond market, inflation, and how you and your neighbors pay your mortgages on your personal homes all have a factor in where the mortgage rates will be tomorrow.

Jag vet inte om du hjälper men du får avgöra...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Hedge fund legends hit by financial crisis 

One industry expert told The Sunday Telegraph: "This is just beginning. Somewhere been 40 and 100 hedge funds will liquidate shortly. It's a bloodbath and it will get worse."

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Elephant Paints Self Portrait 

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

HECK OF A JOB; ECONOMY!

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#89

Battle lines form around Paulson's reforms
Tough sell on Wall Street, Main Street and Capitol Hill

Two things are clear, however. It's not going to happen overnight and it's already too late to ease the turbulence currently buffeting the financial, mortgage and banking sectors.

"It's going to take a long time to get this through. Entrenched interests will have to be assuaged or diffused. It's like merging Exxon and Mobil or Chrysler and Daimler. There are going to be winners and losers," Peter Morici, professor of international business at the University of Maryland, said in an interview.

"But the basic problem is that it doesn't fix what's wrong. This is regulatory reform as seen through the eyes of a banker. It really entails less regulation than more. It provides no constraints on banks or mortgage companies from bundling loans into arcane or complex securities," he added.

Állt hänger på vem kommer att ta över Bush

John McCain  redan sagt att han vill inte att regeringen ska blanda sig,,, its a fri market...

Sen. Barack Obama, speaking Saturday in Johnstown, Pa., dismissed the plan as "inadequate" for not proposing investment banks satisfy the same strict liquidity and capital requirements that retail banks face when they seek to borrow money from the Fed.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#91

Now add a derivative market problem that did not exist in the 1920s. According to the Bank of International Settlement data there are $600 trillion derivatives sitting on a wall just waiting for somebody to give them a push. Today, every time a derivative trade goes bad, the losses run into billions of dollars. A recent mal-investment on a derivatives bet in South Africa cost the trader R200 million. A derivative collapse is on the cards and nobody knows the exact damage it will cause.  

Mvh werik1

#91

In fact Mr Bernanke, please tell us in your own words why we do not have to fear any form of financial collapse:




"Like gold, US. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the US. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many US. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost ByJncreasing the number of dollars in circulation, or even credibly threatening to do so, the US. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is the equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation." (iii) 

 

Mvh werik1

warning , endast för dom troende, sorry

Greenspan's Role in US Dollar Collapse  

Mvh werik1

warning , endast för dom troende, sorry

BILDERBERG: BIG, BAD & UGLY: Daniel Estulin (#2  

Mvh werik1

Bernanke's Next Big Bail Out Plan

"Bear Stearns had total (derivatives) positions of $13.4 trillion. This is greater than the US national income, or equal to a quarter of world GDP - at least in 'notional' terms. The contracts were described as 'swaps', 'swaptions', 'caps', 'collars' and 'floors'. This heady edifice of new-fangled instruments was built on an asset base of $80bn at best.

"On the other side of these contracts are banks, brokers, and hedge funds, linked in destiny by a nexus of interlocking claims. This is counterparty spaghetti. To make matters worse, Lehman Brothers, UBS, and Citigroup were all wobbling on the back foot as the hurricane hit 

It is worth noting that derivatives contracts are a fairly recent addition to US financial markets. In 2000, derivatives trading accounted for less than $1 trillion. By 2006 that figure had mushroomed to over $600 trillion. And it all can be traced back to legislation that was passed during the

Clinton administration.

"A milestone in the deregulation effort came in the fall of 2000, when a lame-duck session of Congress passed a little-noticed piece of legislation called the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. 

 

Mvh werik1

från avanza

Lägget är allvarligt... väldigt alvarligt....

Fed funderar på bankakut

Publicerad: 2008-03-31 10:09

NYHETER: Federal Reserve är djupt bekymrad av läget i de amerikanska bankerna. Nu vill den amerikanska centralbanken lära av den svenska bankakuten som inrättades i samband med bankkrisen i början av 1990-talet. Det uppger tidningen Daily Telegraph.

Federal Reserve undersöker de nordiska bankförstatligandena på 1990-talet. De kan komma att stå modell för en möjlig tillfällig lösning på den finansiella krisen i USA. Det skriver tidningen Daily Telegraph i sin nätupplaga på måndagen.

En senior tjänsteman vid en av de skandinaviska centralbankerna har, enligt tidningen, sagt att strateger från Fed har intensifierat kontakterna för att få reda på mer om hur "Norge, Sverige och Finland hanterade sina traumatiska kriser från 1991 till 1993, som fick regionens ekonomi på knä".

Enligt tidningen förstås det att Federal Reserves vicechef Donald Kohn fortfarande är mycket bekymrad över den amerikanska krisens djup, och blickar mot Norden för eventuella möjliga alternativ.

..............

Två olika kulturer... det kommer att bli väldigt svårt...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#102

Varför slår du inte en signal dit och hjälper till? 

Du vet ju hur det kommer att gå.  

Mvh Corpsee

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) USA:s finansminister Henry Paulson
presenterade finansdepartementets plan för en förnyad
regelstruktur för finansmarknaden på måndagen. Planen
innehåller endast ett fåtal omedelbara åtgärder, och
finansministern betonade att dessa åtgärder inte vidtas som
respons på kreditproblemen eller på turbulensen på
finansmarknaderna.

Det rapporterar Thomson Financial News.

Finansdepartementets första prioritet är att arbeta
sig igenom nedgången på husmarknaden, och det kommer att
fortsätta att vara första prioritet tills problemen är över.
Henry Paulson konstaterade att komplexa långsiktiga frågor
frågor "Inte ska beslutas mitt under en stressad situation
och lägga ytterligare börda på en marknad som redan är under
press".

Planen innehåller endast tre kortsiktiga

rekommendationer, som avses träda i kraft redan i år; den
första gäller en förändring i den instruktion som etablerade
presidentens arbetsgrupp om de finansiella marknaderna för
att formalisera dess roll som koordinator för frågor som
systemrisker, marknadsintegritet, konsumentskydd och
konkurrensen på kapitalmarknaderna.

Den andra rekommendationen gäller att etablera en
bolånekommission, Federal Mortgage Oversight Commission, för
att övervaka och uppgradera den statliga regeleringen av
bolånemäklare.

Den tredje rekommendationen gäller att ge Federal
Reserve utökade möjligheter till informationsinsamling från
investmentbanker, det ska inkludera möjlighet till
utvärdering "på plats", liksom andra alternativ som Fed
behöver för att utvärdera "icke-bankers" så väl som bankers
finansiering och likviditet.

Förslaget fastslår också att Feds utlåning till icke-
banker "bör vara kalibrerad och transparent".

Henry Paulson sade vidare att utkastets avsikt på
längre sikt var att lägga fram en avsiktsmodell, "som endast
kan uppnås efter flera år

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Dilbert Strategy

The financial events of the last seven months, and especially the past few weeks, have convinced all but a few diehards that the U.S. financial system needs major reform. Otherwise, we?ll lurch from crisis to crisis ? and the crises will get bigger and bigger.

....

So, will the administration?s plan succeed? I?m not asking whether it will succeed in preventing future financial crises ? that?s not its purpose. The question, instead, is whether it will succeed in confusing the issue sufficiently to stand in the way of real reform.

Let?s hope not. As I said, America?s financial crises have been getting bigger. A decade ago, the market disruption that followed the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management was considered a major, scary event; but compared with the current earthquake, the L.T.C.M. crisis was a minor tremor.

If we don?t reform the system this time, the next crisis could well be even bigger. And I, for one, really don?t want to live through a replay of the 1930s.

..............................

Titelfiguren Dilbert är ingenjör som jobbar med diffusa arbetsuppgifter i ett kontor på ett stort och byråkratiskt företag. Chefen har makt men är inkompetent, de anställda är kompetenta men har ingen makt. De anställda lär sig att uppfinningsrikedom och spontanitet alltid bestraffas, och status quo bevaras till varje pris. En dråplig figur är den talande hunden Dogbert, Dilberts ständige följeslagare.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Fed Rules to Cut Wall Street Profits, Boost Costs, Gross Says

Investment banks' invitation to borrow at the Fed's discount window will ``come with a price tag,'' Gross wrote on Pimco's Web site today. ``There seems no way that current reserve requirements for banks will not in some nearly uniform way be imposed on investment banks. Leverage and gearing ratios of securities firms therefore, will in a few years resemble those of commercial banks themselves resulting in reduced profitability for major houses such as Goldman, Lehman and Merrill Lynch,'' said Gross, who is based in Newport Beach, California. The three securities firms are all based in New York. 

........................................

Paulson's plan to revamp financial oversight "doesn't get to underlying causes of the mortgage crisis" and besides "nothing is going to happen anytime soon." So says Burt Ely, the president of Ely and Company, a financial services consultancy. He tells Steve Potisk the proposed "regulatory monopoly" may end up "a dampener on innovation within the financial services industry. Ely adds such changes won't forestall another crisis down the road since the problems we are seeing now lie "with the rules of the game rather than how the game is being refereed."

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#106

:) Vem tror Du tjänar på saken istället?

Mvh Corpsee

Inte många en del tror på Paulsons själv och den som kommer efter honom och Fed förstås...

Den myndighet dem representerar kommer förmodligen att bevaka " alla misstänkte terorister" som kan tänka sig förstöra den amerikanska systemet,,,

Mer makt

Om dem nu lyckas...???

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#108

Kanske ska hejda sig ibland och se till vem som säger vad.

Många republikaner som uttalar sig?  

Mvh Corpsee

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#108

John McCain redan sagt  att regeringen inte ska blanda sig #96

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#111
Ja, märkligt land det där, ingen partipiska, eller kontrollerad åsiktsmaskin, folk tycker olika!
Rena rama åsiktsfriheten:-)

Tror du att det övergripande målet med förslaget är mer makt?
Utesluter du att det är den folkvalda maktapparaten som gör vad de kan för
sitt lands bästa?

varför är inte den här med

The Way We Live Now

Firms now do much of their business off the balance sheet. The swashbuckling Bear Stearns was a party to $2.5 trillion ? no typo ? of a derivative instrument known as a

credit default swap.

Such swaps are off-the-books agreements with third parties to exchange sums of cash according to a motley assortment of other credit indicators. In truth, no outsider could understand what Bear (or Citi, or Lehman) was committed to. The thought that Bear?s counterparties (the firms on the other side of that $2.5 trillion) would call in their chits ? and then cancel their trades with Lehman, perhaps with Merrill Lynch and so forth ? sent Wall Street into panic mode. Had Bear collapsed, or so asserted a veteran employee, "it would have been the end: pandemonium and global meltdown." 

Huge pools of capital have been permitted to operate virtually unregulated. Mortgages have been written to the flimsiest of credits. Swelling derivative books have made a mockery of disclosure 

Mvh werik1

Lehman will offer 3 million convertible preferred shares, the New York-based firm said in a statement today. It didn't identify the investors.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Lehman Brothers sjönk i
efterhandeln till måndagens börs efter nyheten om en
nyemission.

Finanshuset säljer 3 miljoner nyemitterade aktier
till institutionella investerar, som inte är namngivna,
enligt Bloomberg News.

Emissionen torde inbringa kring 3 miljarder dollar
och finanshuset hoppas därigenom förbättra kapitalsitsen och
den finansiella flexibiliteten.

Aktien faller med över 3,64%

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Housing is imploding.
There are $500 Trillion in derivatives that no one can possibly understand the financial risks on.
A huge portion of those derivatives are with JP Morgan (JPM).
Bear Stearns stock went from $170 to $10 in a year in Shotgun Wedding between Bear Stearns and JP Morgan arranged by the Fed

Questions Linger Over Lehman's Balance Sheet as Lehman Brothers (LEH) is leveraged 31.7 times.

Citigroup (C) had to be bailed out by Abu Dhabi Deal Raises Questions About Citigroup's Health
Merrill Lynch needed $6.6 Billion Bailout From Kuwait, Mizuho.
Cost of Capital "Ratchets Up" at Citigroup and Merrill
Morgan Stanley (MS) sold 9.9% of the firm to China after handing out huge bonuses.
People are walking away from homes
Businesses Are Advised To Walk Away from agreed upon deals.
There is an open public debate on Moral Obligations Of Walking Away
1 in 10 of the entire state of Ohio is on food stamps.
Florida, Ohio, and Michigan are in an economic depression.
There is No market for Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP)
German Banks Fears Global Meltdown caused by US subprime debt
There is a $1.1 Trillion HELOC Problem
Unemployment is poised to soar.
Commercial real estate is massively overbuilt and poised to plunge.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is calling for another $460 billion in writedowns.

The SEC Openly Invites Corporations To Lie. 
 

Mvh werik1

Greenspan May 5th 2005: "Perhaps the clearest evidence of the perceived benefits that derivatives have provided is their continued spectacular growth." 



Buffett in stark contrast to Greenspan called the explosive use of derivatives an "investment time bomb". 

It's perfectly clear now who was right. For those who have not pieced the story together properly, it was fear of a dominoes style chain reaction collapse of

Credit Default Swaps

starting with Bear Stearns that caused Bernanke to force a shotgun wedding between Bear Stearns and JP Morgan.

So what does the Treasury Department propose? The Orwellian answer of course is to give the Fed still more power to wreak havoc. 
 

Mvh werik1

UBS Says Ospel Resigns After Writedowns Lead to Loss

UBS rose the most in two weeks in Swiss trading after announcing plans today to seek 15 billion francs in a rights offer to replenish capital, on top of 13 billion francs already raised from investors in Singapore and the Middle East. Zurich-based UBS will write down $19 billion on debt securities, bringing the total to almost $38 billion since the third quarter of 2007.

....................................

New UBS Losses Push Out Ospel 

A spokesman for the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. said the fund hadn't decided whether to participate in the stock offering and that it supported the decision for Mr. Ospel to depart. "GIC will examine the terms of the rights issue and obtain other necessary information before we decide," the spokesman said. "The rights issue is required to restore the capital position of the bank to a strong level."

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Gissar på ATH på SP500 iår jag. 

Mvh Corpsee

Gissar du!?

Varför inte, inget fel med det...

mvh spx 970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Se det som en gissning. Egentligen det det är. 

Mvh Corpsee

Jag tror dig.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Japanese bank lending lifted by global turmoil
Nikkei: Overseas financing activity rose from a year earlier amid credit crisis

Japanese banks had nearly 32 trillion yen ($320 billion) in outstanding loans overseas as of Feb. 29, a roughly 24% increase from a year earlier -- marking its highest level in eight years, Nikkei said. 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
The economic outlook
Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress
April 2, 2008

Overall, the near-term economic outlook has weakened relative to the projections released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the end of January. It now appears likely that real gross domestic product (GDP) will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly. ... However, in light of the recent turbulence in financial markets, the uncertainty attending this forecast is quite high and the risks remain to the downside.

Det betyder helt enkelt att usa befinner sig in recession...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#123 Vilket vi alla redan visste varför nyhetsvärdet i Bernankes uttalande är lika med noll. Centralbankschefer är notoriskt försiktiga i sina uttalanden, finns ingen anledning att tro något annat här heller.

Intressantare är snarare vad FED säger om H2 2008, är det realistiskt? Jag tvivlar. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Stry, du menar Ben "There's no housing bubble to go bust" Bernanke? (Oktober 27, 2005)

;-)

hittade en gammal länk;) 

från 

 look back at a few Fed quotes from prior periods:

For the recession that started in April 1960:

"By and large, however, the economy seems quite solid."
Federal Open Market Committee, May 1960

"[Chairman Martin] was by no means convinced that the situation was serious."
Federal Open Market Committee, July 1960

"The Chairman reiterated his views ... There was a declining picture, ... but the economy was not going over a precipice by any means."
Federal Open Market Committee, October 1960

For the recession that began in July 1990:
"In the very near term there?s little evidence that I can see to suggest the economy is tilting over [into recession]."
Chairman Greenspan, July 1990

"...those who argue that we are already in a recession I think are reasonably certain to be wrong."
Greenspan, August 1990

"... the economy has not yet slipped into recession."
Greenspan, October 1990

pdf

Chairman Greenspan] said yesterday

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Manhattan Condo, Co-op Sales Decline Most in 18 Years 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Han har fler

"Greenspan said, however, that there was only a low risk of recession. "It is a low probability." (Jan 25, 2001) 

Fast det överraskande är väl inte att dom kör med positivt spinn in i det sista. Det överraskande är att dom 3 till 6 månader efter att lågkonjungturen startat fortfarande inte vet om att den startat.

de vet visst det, men vill inte orsaka ras 

"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette

Garv

ja huvudsyftet med fed verkar ju vara att skydda dom finansiella "marknaderna"  (bankerna) så det kan ju stämma ;-)

#125 Just han ja :) Men man ska inte tro att han är dum i huvudet som det antyds här (och där) ibland.

#129 Jämför det med vad han sagt denna gång, när han inte är chef för centralbanken.

#130 Huvudet på spiken. 

#131 Nu kan man ju tycka så, men vad hade man/du/jag gjort i samma skor? "Ja för fan, det ser ju för d-vligt ut. Så nu..." :P Han har det nog hett om öronen och jag avunda inte hans jobb.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Nåt att läsa under helgen...

World Economic Outlook
Housing and the Business Cycle
April 2008

Chapter 3. The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's largest bank, and the nation's five other major lenders may report a 40 percent decline in combined profits due to losses related to U.S. subprime mortgages, Nikkei English News said.

The major banks' combined net income is likely to be about 1.5 trillion yen ($14.7 billion) in the year ended March 31, missing their January forecasts that totaled more than 2 trillion yen, the Nikkei reported, without saying where it got the information.

The banks' subprime losses have expanded to as much as 800 billion yen, including about 400 billion yen at Mizuho Financial Group Inc., the report said. The banks may write down their shareholdings by 100 billion yen, it said.

Japan's six major banks also include Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Resona Holdings Inc., Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. and Chuo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Bankruptcies Jump 30% in March, Led by Housing-Bust States

``We're seeing fairly high readings in these measures of distress like bankruptcies, foreclosures and mortgage defaults,'' said Chris Low, chief U.S. economist at FTN Financial in New York. The most affected states are ``also where the most housing-related business growth was,'' said Low.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#73 Finns en del kunniga skribenter som såg en botten vid 890-nivån (bl.a Slakhane även om han har mest tur så var det rätt även den här gången..:-)), vidare så finns ju en potential på runt 130 punkter upp nu mot 1110 som en del andra signaturer jag följer tror på.

Nu undra jag lite om när din plan om vändning verkställs enligt din utsago om att vi inte sett botten? Skall vi inte få glädjas av en eventuell uppgång på 130 punkter härifrån på några månaders sikt, kanske ett kvartal, eller är din plan att det inte vänder förrän vi toppar i den här möjliga upprekylen från botten  vid 890 och man skall varna ett kvartal framåt vid en sannolik uppgång eller hur tänker du dig framtiden.

Undrar lite, du får gärna utveckla hur din plan ser ut...!

Trevlig helg!

#136

Jag såg inte botten men en möjligt bear rally...efter 10 mars varnade jag för köp av säljisar...

Sen vad menar man med botten... hur länge det kommer att hålla...Min plan är enkel... vi har inte sett botten...men en bear rally

För spx redan noterat 38,2 retracement, 50% retracement runt 1425 och 61,8 runt  1453

Samma mönster för ndx nära 38,2% runt 1886. 50% runt 1953. 61,8 % runt 2021

SPX kommer som max att orka till 1450 och inget mer... men först nivåer runt 1400.

I den situation finans världen befinner sig, att köpa långsiktigt är inga bra strategi...

In a bear market man skall försöka hitta nivåer för att sälja...

Vi har sett hur bear stearn försvann..Bernanke tror inte på en ny Bear Stearn...

Han har haft  fel tidigare... och kommer att ha fel igen.

Ner första varningen är brott under 1440

Under 1410 så räkna med 1170 som nästa mål...

Jag är just nu neutral... inga köp och inga sälj...

Vill man ta lite risker då skall man sälja runt ovan nämda nivåer med stop loss...

Just nu tillhör marknaden Daytrader, swing trader.

Dem som tänker långsiktigt bör välja defensiva aktier och glöm finans aktier för dem kommer att falla mer...  eller stay CASH

Samma personen på cnbc som tyckte att finans krisen är inte så allvarligt vågar nu tala om botten...

Jag kan inte lita på en person som inte varnade mig för senaste ras...

Dem som talar för en botten ala 2003 har inte förstått den finaciela krisen i usa och världen befinner sig i... Dem jagade botten i flera månader nu... nån gång kommer dem att ha rätt men inte denna botten

Att man jämför det med USA under depressions åren säger mycket...

Det betyder helt enkelt mer nedgång att vänta...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Tack för ditt svar.

Mvh 

If the Rules are Inconvenient, Change the Rules

Several times in the past few months I have reminded readers of the problem that developed in 1980 when every major American bank was technically bankrupt. 

John Mauldin 

Mvh werik1

Rice Run Prompts Curbs to Rival Credit Market Seizure

China, Egypt, Vietnam and India, representing more than a third of global rice exports, curbed sales this year, and Indonesia says it may do the same. Investigators in the Philippines, the world's biggest importer, raided warehouses last month to crack down on hoarding. The World Bank in Washington says 33 nations from Mexico to Yemen may face ``social unrest'' after food and energy costs increased for six straight years.

...

``Just like in the credit markets back in the first quarter of this year where people were not lending money to each other, they're not giving rice to each other,'' David Darst, chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Global Wealth Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in New York.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Washington Mutual aktier stiger med  över 32%, on reports that the company will receive a $5 billion infusion of capital from a group of private-equity investors in exchange for stock.

 "There is good and bad news here," writes Hale Stewart, in his Bonddad blog. "The good news is people are still willing to put money into the financial sector. The bad news is one of the largest financial institutions in the country has to raise capital. And we?re not talking about chump-change ? we?re talking about $5 billion."

...


Shares have lost 74% over the past 52 weeks. The pessimism is reflected in the short interest ? 19% of the company?s float was being shorted as of mid-March, according to Yahoo Finance.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

CHRONOLOGY-Bond insurers' credit ratings

MBIA Inc's (MBI) MBIA Insurance Corp

Feb. 26 - Moody's removes Aaa rating from review for DOWNGRADE, assigns NEGATIVE outlook.

Feb. 25 - S&P removes AAA rating from review for DOWNGRADE, assigns NEGATIVE outlook.

Feb. 5 - Fitch puts AAA rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Jan. 31 - S&P puts AAA rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Jan. 17 - Moody's puts Aaa rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Jan. 16 - Fitch affirms AAA rating with stable outlook.
Dec. 19 - S&P changes outlook on AAA rating to NEGATIVE from stable.
Dec. 14 - Moody's affirms Aaa rating, changes outlook to NEGATIVE from stable.

Ambac Financial Group's (ABK) Ambac Assurance Corp

Mar. 12 - S&P removes AAA rating from review for DOWNGRADE, outlook NEGATIVE.

Mar. 12 - Moody's ends DOWNGRADE review, confirms AAA rating, outlook NEGATIVE.

Mar. 12 - Fitch affirms AA rating, outlook NEGATIVE.
Feb. 25 - S&P affirms, leaves on review for DOWNGRADE.
Jan. 18 - Fitch CUTS AAA rating to AA.
Jan. 18 - S&P puts AAA rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Jan. 16 - Moody's puts Aaa rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Dec. 14 - Moody's affirms Aaa rating with stable outlook

Dexia's (DEXI) Financial Security Assurance (FSA)
Jan. 24 - Fitch affirms AAA rating with stable outlook.
Dec. 19 - S&P affirms AAA rating with stable outlook.
Dec. 14 - Moody's affirms Aaa rating with stable outlook.

FGIC Corp's Financial Guaranty Insurance Co

Mar. 31 - Moody's CUTS A3 rating to "Baa3," on review for further DOWNGRADE

Mar. 28 - S&P CUTS A rating to BB with NEGATIVE outlook.
Mar. 26 - Fitch CUTS AA rating to BBB with NEGATIVE outlook.
Feb. 25 - S&P CUTS AA rating to A, on review with developing implications.
Feb. 14 - Moody's CUTS AAA rating to A3.
Jan. 31 - S&P CUTS AAA rating to AA.
Jan. 30 - Fitch CUTS AAA rating to AA.
Dec. 19 - S&P puts AAA rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Dec. 17 - Fitch puts AAA rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Dec. 14 - Moody's puts Aaa rating on review for DOWNGRADE.

Assured Guaranty Ltd's (AGO) Assured Corp

Dec. 19 - S&P affirms AAA rating with stable outlook.
Dec. 14 - Moody's affirms Aaa rating with stable outlook.
Dec. 12 - Fitch affirms AAA rating with stable outlook.

Security Capital Assurance's (SCA) XL Capital Assurance

Mar. 26 - Fitch CUTS to BB from A.
Mar. 5 - Moody's puts A3 rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Feb 25 - S&P CUTS AAA rating six notches to A-minus, remains on review for DOWNGRADE.

Feb. 7 - Moody's CUTS AAA rating six notches to A3.
Jan. 31 - S&P puts AAA rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Jan. 24 - Fitch CUTS to A from AAA.
Dec. 19 - S&P changes outlook on AAA rating to NEGATIVE from stable.
Dec. 14 - Moody's puts Aaa rating on review for DOWNGRADE.

Radian Group Inc's (RDN) Radian Asset Assurance

Mar. 28 - Moody's affirms Aa3 rating changes outlook to NEGATIVE from stable.
Jan. 31 - S&P affirms AA rating with stable outlook.
Dec. 14 - Moody's affirms Aa3 rating with stable outlook.
Sept. 5 - Fitch DOWNGRADEs to A-plus from AA.

Banque Populaire and Caisse d'Epargne's CIFG Guaranty

Mar. 31 - Fitch CUTS rating to A-minus, outlook NEGATIVE
Mar. 12 - S&P CUTS AAA rating four notches to A-plus, outlook NEGATIVE.
Mar. 7 - Fitch CUTS AAA rating three notches to AA-minus, leaves on review for further DOWNGRADE.

Mar. 6 - Moody's CUTS Aaa rating four notches to A1, outlook stable.
Feb. 25 - S&P affirms, retains NEGATIVE outlook.
Feb. 22 - Moody's puts Aaa rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Feb. 5 - Fitch puts AAA rating on review for DOWNGRADE.
Dec. 19 - S&P affirms AAA rating with NEGATIVE outlook.

Dec. 14 - Moody's affirms Aaa rating, changes outlook to NEGATIVE from stable.
Nov. 22 - Fitch affirms AAA rating with stable outlook.

mvh spx970
 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers once again took on more credit card debt in February, pushing up total seasonally adjusted consumer debt for the month. Total consumer credit increased by $5.2 billion, or a 2.4% annual rate, to $2.54 trillion, the Federal Reserve reported Monday. Of the total increase, credit card debt rose by 6% and accounted for $4.7 billion. Nonrevolving credit like student and auto loans climbed by 0.4%, or $496 million, the Fed said

..........................................................

According to a survey by the American Bankers Association released April 3, consumers fell behind on credit-card, home- equity and auto loans at the fastest pace in 15 years during the fourth quarter of last year. Banks and other lenders, in turn, increased their reserves against losses.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den fördröjda återhämtningen i den
amerikanska husmarknaden förvånar.

Det sade Eric Rosengren, chef för Federal Reserve i
Boston, i en intervju med Bloomberg News på måndagen.

"Folk har räknat med en återhämtning i husmarknaden
betydligt tidigare än vad som skett och det fortsätter att
överraska på nedsidan", uppgav han.

Att husmarknaden ännu inte visar tecken på en
återhämtning, trots centralbankens sex räntesänkningar sen i
september i fjol, är "gäckande", menade han.

"Husmarknaden är fortfarande svagare än vi skulle
vilja att den var och det har också bidragit till en del av
de finansiella problemen", sade Eric Rosengren.

Beträffande den amerikanska ekonomin var Eric
Rosengrens besked att första halvan av 2008 "verkar bli något
svagare än vad jag hade räknat med i december".

Tillväxten under de första två kvartalet väntas bli
"lägre än potentialen" och därefter successivt förbättras
under resten av året

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

IMF Says Financial Losses May Swell to $945 Billion

The International Monetary Fund said losses stemming from the U.S. mortgage crisis may approach $1 trillion, citing a ``collective failure'' to predict the breadth of the crisis. 

Dem ligger förstås efter

Roubini's forecast, in his recent testimony to Congress, were losses close to $1 trillion: The Current U.S. Recession and the Risks of a Systemic Financial Crisis

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Plosser: Already too late if inflation expectations rise

Two Fed dissenters saw rising inflation expectations as risk
Two FOMC dissents focused on hightened price risks
Inflation expectations did edge higher in March, FOMC says
FOMC majority still sees price gains moderating later in '08

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Behind closed doors last month, top Federal Reserve officials confronted new projections of a sharp and severe slowdown, leading them to brush aside worries about rising prices and cut rates aggressively, according to minutes of the meeting released Tuesday.

The majority of FOMC members said the substantial easing in March was justified given the deteriorating economic outlook, the minutes said. No one seemed in any way comfortable with recent rising prices. But the majority said it still viewed a moderation in price increases later in the year as likely.

There had been no real wage gains, they noted. The decision provoked a sharp dissent from two of the Fed's most hawkish regional bank presidents. Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser and Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher both warned that the public was beginning to think that rising prices were here to stay and this sentiment would be strengthened with another aggressive rate cut.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Volcker Says Fed's Bear Loan Stretches Legal Power

Volcker said the Fed's loan may send investors the wrong message.

``The extension of lending directly to non-banking financial institutions -- while under the authority of nominally `temporary' emergency powers -- will surely be interpreted as an implied promise of similar action in times of future turmoil,'' he said.


Volcker said the modern financial system has ``failed the test'' of the marketplace. When asked whether he predicts a ``dollar crisis,'' he said, ``you don't have to predict it, you're in it.''

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

How The Entire Housing Mess Happened  

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m t

There are a few people who "get it", but of course their pique is a bit late. Here's just one example:

"Americas Watchdog is demanding the the Securities & Exchange Commission & every State's Attorney General start investigating "auction rate preferred shares" & the fact that citizens in every US state were sold these extremely risky investments by a bank or stock broker as, "same as cash". Now tens of thousands of US citizens are being told by a bank or stock broker, "we don't know when you will get your money back". Why is this the biggest single case of fraud in US history? Its because the investors did not want risk, they wanted safety, and instead of that they were given an exotic risky investment device by greedy Wall Street investment houses & US banks. Why does this story deserve to be on NBC, CBS, ABC, & CNN? Its because this is by far the largest case of outright fraud in US history." 
 

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FED/Kroszner: The Fed gov is telling Congress they should turn the

FHA   Federal Housing Administration

 into a world class mortgage insurer, and the FHA should have
the flexibility to insure refis as well. Fannie and Freddie, he
says, can be asked to do more and they should raise more capital.

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USA:s råoljelager överraskar
2008-04-09 16:33


De amerikanska lagren av råolja sjönk med 3,1 miljoner fat under förra veckan.
Det visar statistik från USA:s energidepartement, DOE.
Enligt Bloomberg News väntades en ökning av råoljelagren med 2,3 miljoner fat.


De amerikanska lagren av bensin gick ned med 3,4 miljoner fat. Här väntades en minskning med 3,0 miljoner fat.

Lagren av destillat sjönk med 3,7 miljoner fat under veckan. Här var en minskning med 1,5 miljoner fat väntad.

Kapacitetsutnyttjandet vid raffinaderierna steg med 0,67 procentenheter till 83,03 procent. Här var en uppgång på 0,58 procentenheter väntad. 

 

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American Airlines canceled more than 1,000 flights Wednesday, mostly at its hubs in Dallas and Chicago, as the airline conducted more inspections of its fleet of MD-80 jets. 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inside the Middle Class: Bad Times Hit the Good Life

Americans feel stuck in their tracks. A majority of survey respondents say that in the past five years, they either haven't moved forward in life (25%) or have fallen backward (31%). This is the most downbeat short-term assessment of personal progress in nearly half a century of polling by the Pew Research Center and the Gallup organization.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Bernanke and Paulson turn to G-7 for ideas to stem global financial meltdown  

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In fact, the deleveraging of financial institutions is accelerating at a pace that no one expected, threatening some of Wall Streets' biggest players and putting

$600 trillion

in counterparty agreements at risk. And it all began with eliminating the basic standards for issuing loans to credit-worthy applicants -- the straw that broke the camel's back. Now the whole system is crumbling and an ominous sense of doom pervades trading floors across the planet. Everyone is just waiting for the next shoe to drop.

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 Something Big out There

Things are NOT looking pretty right now. I can tell you from a consumer spending point of view something is definantely going on.... All these changes tell me the people at the top are trying to brace for something big that is going to be happening to the economy.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Subprime Bank Losses Reach $245 Billion With WaMu, HSH: Table 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Hedge Funds
Make It Hard

To Say GoodbyeHedge Funds

If you thought getting into a hedge fund was tough, try getting out of one.

With the markets sputtering, some high-profile hedge funds are rejecting withdrawal requests, with some telling investors that it could be years before they will see all their cash again. And it isn't just big institutions and the wealthy that are getting rebuffed. Some smaller investors who took advantage of lower minimum investments by putting their cash into so-called funds of funds, which invest in numerous hedge funds, are also getting blocked.


-----

Meanwhile, Russell Investments has told investors in two of its funds of funds that they can have only 10% of their money back right now, with the rest available down the road, after losses and investor withdrawals forced the huge investment firm to close the funds.

The moves by the funds are legal. When investors sign up, they usually give a hedge fund the right to bar the exits, or limit the amount that can be withdrawn. But the gates are still catching some people by surprise.


......

Some investors have moved to withdraw money even from secure funds as fears grow about all kinds of financial firms. Some funds are trying to slow the redemptions to avoid the type of situation that felled brokerage firm Bear Stearns Cos., which ran into deep problems after nervous clients bolted.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#127

THE FED: Bernanke: Nothing Broken On Wall Street That Can't Be Fixed 

Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, said that, although there are similarities between the current credit crunch and the 1930s, the U.S. "will not experience" anything like the Depression, which lasted for 12 years. 

...

Nåt att komma ihåg 

...

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Jaa, särkilt för dig:-) du behöver inte vara rädd!

Fitch warns on darker outlook for home builders

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Home builders are facing the twin specters of a slowing U.S. economy and a housing contraction that looks likely to extend through 2008, Fitch Ratings said Friday. "Continued low mortgages rates, some improvement in affordability, proposed government support for beleaguered mortgage holders and the economic stimulus program may signal a possible step in the right direction for U.S. housing," said Bob Curran, Fitch's lead home-building analyst, in a statement. "That said, a modest recession, declining home prices, tighter mortgage standards even for conventional loans, poor buyer psychology and record levels of new and existing homes for sale will continue to define the current environment for housing." An exchange-traded fund tracking builder stocks, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction  was up nearly 19% year to date through Thursday's close.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#147

Volcker's Speech

Video 1 av 5

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

G7 sees difficult time, unhappy with currency swings
Anxiety doesn't stay behind closed doors; more bumps ahead, Paulson says

Even Paulson was more downbeat than usual. He told reporters at a press conference after the meeting that the first two quarters of the year would be "tough." The first quarter was a tough quarter and I expect the second quarter to be a relatively tough quarter," he added. "There may be more bumps in the road."

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Vi fick igår en liten Black Swan och mer lär komma..

Mest intressant att ingen anade att GE,s ´skulle komma med sämre resultat trots att företaget är verksam inom finans sektor...

Så faran som som en del analyser skrivit om att det värsta är över är bara en illusion...

Så mina varningar står kvar... Tänker man långsigikt så håll dig från att köpa... korsiktigt från några timmar till en vecka... har inget emot om man använder sig av stopp loss och att man sätter ett mål... var inte girig... har du en vinst så ta den...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Wall Street, recently basking in optimism that the credit crisis may have turned a corner, got rained on Friday after a surprise drop in earnings from bellwether General Electric Co. renewed fears of persistent economic aftershocks.

The fear now in the markets is that we won't only have recession, but we'll have deep and prolonged recession. ... It's the knock-on effect of the credit squeeze," Quinlan added.

General Electric, the largest U.S. corporate borrower, showed that convulsions in the financial world can derail even the most diversified of firms. The conglomerate said that "extraordinary disruption in the capital markets in March" hurt its financial division's ability to sell assets and caused it to take higher losses on the current market value of its assets

#137

Gäller fortfarande

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

U.S., Europe Warn of Further `Bad News;' Strengthen Regulation

``The market is still adjusting, the turmoil has not yet settled down,'' Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn told reporters in Washington. ``It's still a fragile situation out there.''

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Professor Meltzer concurred. "Bernanke is under tremendous pressure from the Congress, from the market, and from the president likely," he said. "As Greenspan has discovered, even after you leave, you run into people who criticize what you did even though they may have applauded it when you did it."

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

We need a Basel III for a new order

We are probably having recession and food price inflation at the same time. That is what makes this different. This is a serious financial crisis of our lifetime. It is the end of an era," he added. He said the Basel II agreement that governs how banks have to maintain capital is totally misconceived. "It will have to be reworked and we need a Basel III for a new order." 

......

Basel I

.....

Basel II Accord

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Want to Save the Economy?

 "With the Federal Reserve System's latest proposal, presented to the public by Secretary of the Treasury Henry "Goldman Sachs" Paulson, the Fed is asking the United States government to make it the Great Protector of Capital....The new proposals will centralize power over finance in the hands of an agency that is officially run by the government but in fact is run by agents of the largest fractional reserve banks. ...Regulation by tenured staff economists will not make the system less fragile. It will make it more top-heavy and less flexible..

"Some version of this plan will probably pass in the next Congress. No matter whether it does or does not, the direction is the same: toward an economy controlled by the federal government in conjunction with titular private ownership of the means of production, that is, toward fascism." 



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Swaps Tied to Losses Became `Frankenstein's Monster' (Update1)  

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Deutsche ska sälja krediter för 200 mdr dollar sen de kommit köpare.

Carlalye o firmorna har tagit en högar med kapital för att köpa undervärderade lån. Deras största problem är att det inte finns tillräckligt många samt att folk inte vill sälja till dessa priser.

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George "vi har jätteproblem i marknaden som jag bara upplyser om i största välmening" Soros

Två på listan är levande legenden George Soros med 2,9 miljarder dollar.  

Hey! , im not short i dollars! I promise

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Ron Paul slams PRIVATE FED on making YOU WORTHLESS 4/1/08 

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The Fed ``will have to be careful not to leave monetary accommodation in place longer than it is needed,'' Yellen said to reporters after a speech in Alameda, California. Otherwise, policy makers may ``put upward pressure on inflation'' or create ``a bubble'' of speculation in the economy.  

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

 Black Swan" author Nassim Nicholas Taleb says: "Anyone who knows anything about the history of banking ... will tell you that the subprime crisis was so bound to happen [but] banks have a tendency to sit on 'time bombs' while convincing themselves that they are conservative."

Ja mycket har hänt sedan mars 2008 ...

EFter Bear Stearn #136  marknaden fick se många stora banker med en lång historia försvinna...

ff, Lehman ...

En investemnet bank som Lehman som upplevt the great depression, två stora krig, kalla kriget, sen bara paff,,, Det käns att man vaknat från en mardröm...

Mer negativa Black Swan att vänta...

Samt jag också väntar på positiva black swan...

Och ni ser vad som händer med dow ikväll

Ner med över 4,28%  453 punkter

SPX ner 57 punkter 4,98%

Nasdaq comp ner 104 punkter 4,99%

A black swan för många som levde i en fantasi värld och värst att de trodde att jag levde i fantasi värld, att jag bara litade efter negativa nyheter...

Med facit i hand, jag tackar alla länkar från bloomberg och andra håll som hjälpte mig att förstå vad som händer... 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

bra

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 Worst Crisis Since '30s, With No End Yet in Sight

Many of the CEO types weren't willing...to take these losses, and say, 'I accept the fact that I'm selling these way below fundamental value,'" said Anil Kashyap, a University of Chicago Business School economics professor. "The ones that had the biggest exposure, they've all died."

...

Not Enough

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Jan Hatzius estimates that in the past year, financial institutions around the world have already written down $408 billion worth of assets and raised $367 billion worth of capital.

But that doesn't appear to be enough. Every time financial firms and investors suggest that they've written assets down enough and raised enough new capital, a new wave of selling triggers a reevaluation, propelling the crisis into new territory. Residential mortgage losses alone could hit $636 billion by 2012, Goldman estimates, triggering widespread retrenchment in bank lending. That could shave 1.8 percentage points a year off economic growth in 2008 and 2009 -- the equivalent of $250 billion in lost goods and services each year.

"This is a deleveraging like nothing we've ever seen before," said Robert Glauber, now a professor of Harvard's government and law schools who came to Washington in 1989 to help organize the savings and loan cleanup of the early 1990s. "The S&L losses to the government were small compared to this." 

 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

The new sage of Wall Street

The trader turned author has emerged as the guru of the global financial meltdown. Not only is he riding high in the bestseller lists, his theory of black swan events has become the most seductive guide to our uncertain times

...

A brush with throat cancer preceded the publication of his first book, Fooled by Randomness, that became a surprise hit in 2001. It established Taleb as a new thinker. The author even found his views adopted by strategic planners at the Pentagon. In February 2002, then Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld offered this hybrid of Taleb thought: 'There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don't know.'

...

Even globalisation, which was supposed to make the economic machine more resilient, may be having the opposite effect, he thinks. 'Things are way too efficient, so the smallest mistake blows up. Tomorrow, if there's a problem in Bangalore, we're toast for a long time, you see?

'Economics is a tragedy for me. Because look at how the whole world now is designed according to some ideas that have not proved adequate. The whole financial system. We don't understand economic policy, do you realise that? When Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates thinking it would help the economy, all it did was push banks to take risks-hidden risks.'

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Video

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (12 oktober 2008)

Finans krisen kanske bara börjat...  och mer lär komma...

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet