0815 N(ews)A(analysis)
Friday, April 4, 2008 SIVs Appear To Be DEAD! HEEEELLLOO!!!
SCORE ONE FOR THE GOOD GUYS!
To those of you who say that PETITIONS DON'T WORK and BLOGGING DOESN'T WORK and NOBODY LISTENS.
It appears that the FASB has removed the concept of QSPEs, which is the enabling "piece" to make off-balance-sheet securitizations possible, from the FASB set of regulations, specifically, FAS 140.
This appears to have happened TODAY.
As such it appears that all financial institutions will have to reclaim all SIVs back onto their balance sheets no later than the start of 2009.
This is a watershed event, in that these vehicles, when they are reclaimed onto bank balance sheets, is likely to lead to the P/Es of these firms skyrocketing north, and consequently, a far more realistic view of both share price AND capitalization.
In short Investment Banks have ~6 months to get their act together and their capital up, and then they are going to have to start integrating these vehicles back onto their consolidated financial statements.
I'm impressed.
Beware - the XLF and BIX are not cheap or even reasonably priced with this change coming down the tube.
The next step of rationalization of the share prices of Investment Banks is about to begin.
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
PM DETTA HÄNDER 8-15 APRIL
TISDAG 8 APRIL
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UTLÄNDSKA RAPPORTER
- 888, Bang & Olufsen
STÄMMOR
- Beijer Alma, Capital Oil, Cybaero, Home Properties, NCC,
SCA, SEB (kl 14.00), Svensk Internetrekrytering, Uniflex
BÖRS ÖVRIGT
- Skog: prisindex från Foex kl 11.00
- Hakon Invest: ICA omsättningssiffror för mars
- Obducat: sista dag för handel i teckningsrätter, i
anslutning till pågående konvertibelemission
EXKLUSIVE UTDELNING
- Cardo (9:00 kr), Carnegie (7:50 kr), Skanditek (0:30 kr)
STATISTIK
- Finland: BNP-indikator januari kl 8.00
- Litauen: KPI mars kl 10.00
- Riksbanken: reparesultat kl 10.00
- ECB: reparesultat kl 11.20
- Lettland: KPI mars kl 12.00
- USA: ABC/WP konsumentförtroende veckosiffra kl 23.00
MAKRO ÖVRIGT
- BOJ: penningpolitiskt möte kl 6.00
- Riksbanken: direktionen sammanträder kl 13.00
- Fed: FOMC-protokoll från 18 mars kl 20.00
ONSDAG 9 APRIL
==============
RAPPORTER
- Midway (under eftermiddagen)
UTLÄNDSKA RAPPORTER
- Acergy (kl 13.00)
STÄMMOR
- B&M Impex, Ericsson (kl 15.00), Midway, Nexus, Ramirent,
Ratos, SAS, Tripep, Volvo
BÖRS ÖVRIGT
- Ericsson: presskonferens i samband med bolagets stämma kl
11.30
- Olja: veckostatistik amerikanska oljelager kl 16.30
- NSP Holding: presenterar försäljningssiffror för mars
EXKLUSIVE UTDELNING
- Beijer Alma (5:00 kr), Home Properties (3:50 kr), NCC
(11:00 kr + extra 10 kr), SCA (4:40 kr), SEB (6:50 kr),
Svensk Internetrekrytering (0:30 kr), Uniflex (5:00 kr)
STATISTIK
- Tyskland: handels-, bytesbalans februari kl 8.00
- Storbritannien: industriproduktion februari kl 10.30
- EMU: BNP(rev) 4 kv kl 11.00
- USA: grossistlager februari kl 16.00
MAKRO ÖVRIGT
- BOJ: räntebesked
- BOJ: månadsrapport kl 8.00
- RGK: resultat växelemission kl 11.10
- RGK: villkor obligationsemission kl 16.20
- Fed: Richard Fisher talar om USA-ekonomin kl 19.30
TORSDAG 10 APRIL
================
RAPPORTER
- Bioinvent (kl 8.30), Investor (kl 8.30)
UTLÄNDSKA RAPPORTER
- Genentech (efter USA-börsernas stängning)
STÄMMOR
- Björn Borg, Clas Ohlson, Intrum Justitia, Lovisagruvan,
Lundbergs, Net Entertainment, Net Insight, NKT Holding, Sweco
BÖRS ÖVRIGT
- MAN: pressträff med vd Håkan Samuelsson i Köpnhamn angående
ytterligare investeringar i de skandinaviska verksamheterna
kl 12.00
- Fondbolagens förening: nysparande i fonder i mars
- Detaljhandel: månadsförsäljning Gap, Limited Brands, TJX,
Wal-Mart
- RNB: presenterar försäljningssiffror för mars
- Vostok Nafta Investment: presenterar substansvärde
EXKLUSIVE UTDELNING
- Ericsson (0:50 kr), Midway (5:00 kr), Ramirent (0:50 EUR),
Ratos (9:00 kr), Volvo (5:50 kr)
STATISTIK
- Storbritannien: NIESR BNP-estimat mars kl 1.01
- Japan: maskinorder februari kl 1.50
- Japan: bytesbalans februari kl 1.50
- Frankrike: industriproduktion februari kl 8.45
- Danmark: KPI mars kl 9.30
- SCB: industriproduktion februari kl 9.30
- SCB: industriorder februari kl 9.30
- AF: arbetslöshet mars kl 10.00
- Norge: KPI mars kl 10.00
- Irland: KPI mars kl 12.00
- USA: handelsbalans februari kl 14.30
- USA: nyanmälda arbetslösa veckostatistik kl 14.30
MAKRO ÖVRIGT
- BOE: räntebesked kl 13.00
- ECB: räntebesked kl 13.45
- Riksdagen: statsministerns frågestund kl 14.00
- ECB: presskonferens med Jean-Claude Trichet kl 14.30
FREDAG 11 APRIL
===============
RAPPORTER
- Luxonen (kl 11.00)
UTLÄNDSKA RAPPORTER
- General Electric (före USA-börsernas öppning)
STÄMMOR
- Ancora Energispar, Bringwell, Catech, Net Insight, Nextlink
BÖRS ÖVRIGT
- Obducat: förlängd teckningstid konvertibelemission gå ut
- Olja: IEA:s månadsrapport
- Rederi: rater vecka 15
EXKLUSIVE UTDELNING
- Björn Borg (1:50 kr), Intrum Justitia (3:25 kr),
Lovisagruvan (0:50 kr), Lundbergs (9:00 kr), Net
Entertainment (0:75 kr), NKT Holding (11:00 DKK), Sweco (2:00
kr)
STATISTIK
- Mäklarstatistik: bostadspriser mars kl 8.00
- Spanien: KPI mars kl 9.00
- SCB: aktivitetsindex februari kl 9.30
- USA: importpriser mars kl 14.30
- USA: Michiganindex (prel) april kl 16.00
POLITIK
- Riksdagen: statsministerns frågestund kl 14.00
- IMF: håller möte tillsammans med Världsbanken, bl a
finansminister Anders Borg deltar (10-13/4)
MAKRO ÖVRIGT
- G7: möte i Washington
LÖRDAG 12 APRIL
===============
MAKRO ÖVRIGT
- IMF: IMFC-möte i Washington
MÅNDAG 14 APRIL
===============
UTLÄNDSKA RAPPORTER
- Philips
STÄMMOR
- Bioinvent, Labs2, Poolia
BÖRS ÖVRIGT
- Tysk beklädnad: veckostatistik Textilwirtschaft
- Svolder: presenterar substansvärde
- Vostok Gas: presenterar substansvärde
STATISTIK
- Finland: KPI mars kl 8.00
- SCB: KPI mars kl 9.30
- SCB: betalningsbalansen februari kl 9.30
- Storbritannien: PPI mars kl 10.30
- EMU: industriproduktion (prel) februari kl 11.00
- USA: detaljhandel mars kl 14.30
- USA: lager av osålda varor februari kl 16.00
MAKRO ÖVRIGT
- BOJ: protokoll penningpolitiskt möte mars kl 1.50
TISDAG 15 APRIL
===============
RAPPORTER
- Avanza, HL Display, Öresund
UTLÄNDSKA RAPPORTER
- Intel
STÄMMOR
- Avanza, Haldex, Industrivärden, Saab, Sampo, Scirocco,
Seamless, Securitas Direct, Telelogic, Topdanmark, Wallenstam
BÖRS ÖVRIGT
- Hennes & Mauritz: presenterar försäljningssiffror för mars
kl 8.00
- Skog: prisindex från Foex kl 11.00
- Clas Ohlson: presenterar försäljningssiffror för mars
- Fordon: registreringsstatistik personbilar mars från ACEA
- Olja: Opecs månatliga oljeprognos
EXKLUSIVE UTDELNING
- Poolia (1:00 kr+bonus 1:50 kr)
STATISTIK
- Frankrike: KPI mars kl 8.45
- Italien: KPI (def) mars kl 10.00
- Riksbanken: reparesultat kl 10.00
- Storbritannien: KPI mars kl 10.30
- Tyskland: ZEW-index april kl 11.00
- ECB: reparesultat kl 11.20
- USA: PPI mars kl 13.30
- USA: Empire Manufacturing Index april kl 14.30
- USA: TICS-data februari kl 15.00
- USA: NAHB:s husmarknadsindex april kl 19.00
- USA: ABC/WP konsumentförtroende veckosiffra kl 23.00
POLITIK
- Riksdagen: Regeringen presenterar ekonomisk vårproposition
kl 10.00
#4 direkt har missat dagens usa stat kl 16:00 pending home sales
"When this bill was introduced we were hopeful that the Senate would preserve
the good ideas in the initial proposal, and remove the parts that we believed
would do more harm than good," Perino said.
She lauded lawmakers for striking a provision that would allow bankruptcy
judges to alter mortgage terms, but said changes in White House-backed language
on modernization of the Federal Housing Administration and an expansion of
mortgage revenue bonds were problematic for the administration.
"In the end, it appears that the Senate versions of even those proposals,
because of changes that they made to it, raise concerns here, and therefore
this is not a bill that we could support," Perino said.
FED: SVAGARE EK UTSIKTER, SVÅRT KALIBRERA PENNINGPOL - PROT
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Utsikterna för den ekonomiska
aktiviteten hade försvagats avsevärt vid tidpunkten för
Federal Reserves senaste räntemöte, och ledamöterna bedömde
att nedåtriskerna mot tillväxten hade ökat. Vissa av
ledamöterna ansåg till och med att en "utdragen och
allvarlig" nedgång inte kunde uteslutas, givet
kreditbegränsningarna och de fortsatta problemen på
husmarknaden.
Det framgår av protokollet från Federal Reserves
penningpolitiska möte den 18 mars, som publicerades på
tisdagen, enligt Bloomberg News.
En oenig räntekommitté beslutade vid mötet att sänka
styrräntan med 75 punkter till 2,25 procent.
Charles Plosser, Fedchef i Philadelphia, och Richard
Fisher, Fedchef i Dallas, förordade en mindre aggressiv
sänkning vid detta mötet.
Reservanterna hänvisade de förhöjda
inflationsriskerna. De instämde i bedömningen att inkommande
data tydde på en svagare ekonomisk utveckling, men räntan
hade redan sänkts med totalt punkter sedan i september, och
den fulla effekten av dessa sänkningar hade inte märkts ännu.
De flesta ledamöterna ansåg dock att inflationen
troligen skulle komma att avta även med en kraftig
räntesänkning vid det aktuella mötet, men de noterade
samtidigt att inflationstrycket hade stigit samtidigt som
utsikterna för tillväxten hade försämrats.
"Givet osäkerheten i utsikterna för den ekonomiska
aktiviteten och den förhöjda inflationen noterade ledamöterna
att det var svårt att lämpligt kalibrera den penningpolitiska
hållningen, delvis på grund av att vid någon punkt skulle
krävas en utvärdering av den substantiella lättnaden i
policyn hittills", framgår det av protokollet./PD
EIA Chief: Agency Forecasts 'Small Recession' In US Economy
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- The head of the U.S. government's top energy
forecasting agency said Tuesday that an expected decline in gasoline
consumption this summer would in part be due to a "small recession" projected
for the first half of the year.
While Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week for the first time
that the U.S. could slip into recession this year, most government officials
have gone to great lengths to avoid even using the word - including President
George W. Bush.
"Our macroeconomists are projecting a small recession in the first half of
the year," Guy Caruso, the administrator of the Energy Information
Administration, said at an energy conference here.
The EIA said in its Short Term Energy Outlook Tuesday that U.S. gasoline
demand would drop by around 35,000 to 38,000 barrels a day this summer from a
year earlier, the first decline since 1991. It said the drop was tied to
expectations of continued record high prices and sluggish U.S. economic growth.
Caruso said the decline in projected consumption this year was similar to
that in 1991 in that there was also a relatively slight recession that year.
The administrator's comments come despite macroeconomic data from the EIA's
energy outlook forecasting that real gross domestic product will grow 1.2% in
the second quarter compared with the same period last year. Recession is
generally described as a period of economic contraction, rather than growth.
National average gasoline prices are expected to peak at $3.624 a gallon in
June and average at a record $3.54 a gallon this summer. On Monday, the EIA
said gasoline prices in the latest week averaged $3.332 a gallon, up 4.2
cents from a week earlier and 53 cents above a year ago.
EIA said April-September gasoline demand is expected to drop by 0.4% to 9.4
million barrels a day this year.
On average, EIA data show, summer gasoline demand has increased by an average
of 129,000 barrels a day since 1992.
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
usa var en gång i världen, världens verksta'
under wwII så tillverkade åt UK, ryssarna och kina, efter kriget-åt alla
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The nation's top two bond insurers - and among the
most toxic in investors' eyes - are working with the issuers whose short-term
bonds they guaranteed to convert the securities into more palatable forms.
MBIA Inc. (MBI) said it has helped convert more than $1 billion in
variable-rate securities into long-term fixed rate bonds. In addition, it is
working on turning auction-rate securities into variable-rate securities, the
firm said in a statement Tuesday.
Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) also said Tuesday it's providing assistance
to clients trying to convert both auction-rate and variable-rate securities.
The insurer didn't say in its release how many issuers are involved or how much
in notes has been converted. A spokeswoman didn't immediately return a call for
comment Wednesday.
MBIA and Ambac said their insurance policies remain on the converted
securities.
The auction-rate securities market and the variable-rate securities market,
which are two distinct kinds of adjustable-rate markets, both have been thrown
in turmoil in recent months. Concerns spread as bond insurers exposed to bad
subprime investments faced ratings downgrades, and as liquidity problems hit
leveraged players.
As a result, issuers of debt insured from most of the bond insurers have been
forced to pay higher rates.
The impact of MBIA and Ambac's efforts hasn't yet been seen in the
marketplace, said Gary Pollack, head of fixed-income trading and research at
Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. He noted that 65% to 70% of auctions
for auction-rate securities continue to fail.
An insured auction-rate security needs an additional form of credit
enhancement such as a bank letter of credit or a standby purchase agreement to
be converted into a variable-rate demand note. Pollack said the insurer on the
bond will still remain a factor for investors deciding if they should purchase
a converted security.
"An investor should look at the issuer, the liquidity provider, and lastly,
the insurer," he said.
MBIA and Ambac have retained their top triple-A ratings from Moody's
Investors Service and Standard & Poor's, but the uncertainty around their
ratings has led to investor mistrust.
Worse off are Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. and Security Capital Assurance
(SCA), which have been stripped of their top ratings. Meanwhile, Financial
Security Assurance and Assured Guaranty (AGO), whose triple-A ratings have been
affirmed with stable outlooks, have steadily increased their market share in
new municipal debt.
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The International Energy Agency Friday made its biggest
cut to world oil demand growth in seven years, underlining the extent to which
weaker U.S. and European economic growth prospects are eroding crude
consumption in the world's wealthiest nations.
World oil demand growth, a key metric closely followed by the global crude
market, was revised down by 460,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day,
the Paris-based IEA said in its widely watched monthly oil market report.
That's down 35% from the agency's January forecast for world oil demand growth
of 2.0 million barrels a day.
"It's the biggest downward revision we've had on demand growth since the
September 11th attacks" on the U.S., Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA's oil
market division, told Dow Jones Newswires. Key to the downward revision is the
U.S.'s sharply lower economic growth prospects.
Visa sida
Ogilla! 1
Gilla!
UK darling
"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette