The Spring Fever för finans är över

Bernanke Fed still waiting for inflation to moderate




March 28, 2006

... inflation expectations remain contained.

May 10, 2006

... inflation expectations remain contained.

June 29, 2006

... inflation expectations remain contained.

August 8, 2006

... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations...

Sep 20, 2006

... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...

Oct 25, 2006

... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...

Dec 12, 2006

... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...

Jan 31, 2007

... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time.

Mar 21, 2007

Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

May 9, 2007

Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

Jun 28, 2007

... a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated.

Aug 7, 2007

... a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated.

Sep 18, 2007

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...

Oct 31, 2007

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...

Dec 11, 2007

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...

Jan 22, 2008

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...

Jan 30, 2008

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...

Mar 18, 2008

... some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...



Apr 30, 2008

... some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...
There appears to be no theoretical limit on how long you can continue to expect something to happen, however, practically speaking, at some point in time, people stop believing what you say.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Några intressanta länker.

1) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke won't call what we're living through a recession. But at Society Hill and other such shops - where they measure economic misery in increasing volumes of pawned bling - they'll tell you that hard times are hard times, whatever label the eggheads affix.

2)

Sarah Jessica Parker's hits the red carpet in a $9 dress

3)

To meet higher gas, food and prescription drug bills, they are selling off grandmother's dishes and their own belongings. Some of the household purging has been extremely painful ? families forced to part with heirlooms.

4)

"Anyone that expects us to come close to replicating the past should sell their stock," Buffett said. "It's not going to happen."

5)

``The worst of the crisis in Wall Street is over,'' Buffett said today on Bloomberg Television. ``In terms of people with individual mortgages, there's a lot of pain left to come.'' Buffett was interviewed before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company's annual meeting, attended by about 31,000 people.

6) Video

THAT ROSE, FANNIE MAE - versusplus.com HOUSING BUBBLE parody

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

1) Video

Food price inflation 

2) Video

Foreclosure

3)Grain:World Markets and Trade

4)

Blaming hard-hit housing markets of California and Florida for slowing sales, the coffee shop chain slashed its quarterly and 2008 profit forecast below Wall Street targets and said it faced the "weakest economic environment" in its history.

5)

The recent actions by the Federal Reserve are only buying time before that infusion of capital to those firms, which might come from the domestic private sector, from abroad, or ultimately from the government. The pity is that some of those actions taken in the heat of our ongoing crisis--importantly including the extension of credit to an investment bank--will have long-lasting consequences.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

spx,

som sagt bearmarket rally. Många som är positiva därute nu det är bara att kolla bs. Tror att det är många som ska gå på bränn snart!!!

Mvh naxos

1)

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2008 (ADVANCE)

2)

Explaining Japan's Recession

3)

Interest-rate derivatives are signaling that the rate banks charge for loans in dollars in London may rise further as financial institutions remain reluctant to lend.

4)  

As Economy Slows, So Do Laser Eye Surgeries

5)

The Imperial Fed: Does It Have Enough Power?

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0 "Och en sak till, jag läst nånstans att antalet veganer i USA och i hela den industriella världen stiger för varje dag och vad tror ni att priset på mat kommer att landa".

Allt annat lika så kommer matpriserna att sjunka då det går åt otroligt mycket mer grödor indirekt för att skapa kött än om vi människor föder oss på grödorna direkt. 

Därtill tror jag, som tidigare påpekat, att matinflationen är kejsarens nya kläder rakt igenom. U-världen står inför samma produktivitetsexplosion som vi genomlevt på 1900-talet och att då tala om matbrist och matinflation igen känns mest som ett desperat sökande efter nästa asset price bubble.
 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

När tror du U- världen kommer med denna produktivitetsexplosion?

Om 6 månader, ett år, två år, 5 år...

Lean times for Minnesota's pork producers

Yet far and away the worst culprit has been the cost of corn, the primary diet for American pigs. Corn futures for May delivery broke through $6 a bushel in trading on the Chicago Board of Trade this week, double the cost from a year ago. A farmer who paid $52 per pig for feed last year now pays closer to $105.

Och det kommer att bli värre...

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#7 Gradvis såklart. Teknologin finns ju redan, så det kan gå relativt fort. Den största bromsen är bristen på stabilt och fritt ägande av den egna marken av bönderna.

Det vore nog mer intressant att höra dig och Malthus anhängare förklara varför det skulle bli annorlunda denna gång?

Lägg därtill mark som legat i träda p g a för låga priser. Det går snabbt att ställa om den produktionen vilket kommer märks redan i år för vissa grödor där produktionen slår rekord. Och vi har sett viss effekt i priserna redan... 

Ang pork... men blev inte fler veganer nu vilket skulle slå mot grödorna och minska efterfrågan på griskött? ;) Hehe.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#8

Angående Malthus redan förklarat min åsikt om det i tidigare inlägg...Och har inte tid för att diskutera det igen.. Jag tar inte ens upp det i mitt inlägg.

Om du tolkar mitt inlägg som jag tillhör denna grupp då har du förstått fel.

Frågan som jag tar upp är inflationen kommer att stiga och har inget vad anhängerna på vad malthus tycker och inte tycker

Att priset på mat kommer att stiga och mest hushållens förväntningarna om inflationen kommer att stiga... Det är det jag tar upp och inte om Malthus kommer att ha rätt eller inte...

Det finns fakta, folk därute i världen har väldigt svårt nu... matpriserna stiger.. vi har sett stora demonstrationer... Malthus eller inte, folk känner att det är dyrt med att köpa mat...

Folk har väldigt svårt att försörja sina barn... Varför? många orsaker... som gör att maten har blivit dyrare...

vad kan man göra... Det få dem ansvarige tar hand om... men om de forstätter hoppas på att priserna skall sjunka utan att göra nåt... då kommer vi att se  det vi ingen vill se...

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Och vad fed kommer att göra om Bank of Amerika ger upp sina planer?

Bank of America Should Skip Countrywide, Analyst Says

Bank of America Corp., the second- biggest U.S. bank, should abandon its $4 billion takeover of Countrywide Financial Corp. because the mortgage lender's loans will hurt earnings, according to Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Vad göra?



Last week ... you probably heard that the Fed was going to get involved with the usury rates and practices being levied by charge card companies. The Fed noted that extremely high credit card rates were harmful to the economy and to consumers and that new restrictive credit card lending rules were going to be put in place relative to increasing credit card rates.

It was about time that somebody sat up and took notice .... however, the Fed said that December would be the earliest these rules would be put into affect.

The proposal was released last Thursday by the Office of Thrift Supervision and the National Credit Union Administration. The first key item in the proposal had this objective:

1. Bar credit issuers from raising interest rates on existing debt, except under certain default conditions.

But ... Credit card companies used this prior announcement to engage in more gouging and harmful activity.

On Friday, Citibank business customers received a "Notice of Change in Terms and Right to Opt Out" Notice. It was an action to raise rates and "get all they could get" before regulatory changes stopped them from these harmful practices.

The NOTICE increased the APR on purchases to the U.S. Prime rate plus 11.99% with a MINIMUM APR of 17.99%. Citibank jumped the gun and started pushing rates up BEFORE the regulators had a chance to do anything.

Citibank will say that they were "fair" about the notice because they gave everyone the "Right to Opt Out" and not accept their interest rate increases.

Fair? Their Opt Out provisions said the following: "To opt out of these changes, you must call or write ups by June 30, 2008. When you do, you must tell us that you are opting out. Call us toll-free at 1-866-XXX-XXXX. (Please have your account number available), or write us at Customer Service Center ...." "If you opt out of these changes, you may use your account under the current terms until the expiration date on the Responsible Officer's card. We will close out the account at that time. You must then repay the balance under the current terms.

So basically, they threatened their business customers ... accept the new rates without complaining or we will cancel your credit card.

I'm sure this is not something the Fed would find supportive of their new mission about curtailing rate increases and fair practices. With the Fed having just lowered rates again by 25 basis points, WHY did Citibank think that meant they should be raising rates?

Citibank's increase raised the business interest rate by half of one percent. It doesn't sound so bad, however, on 17.49% that is an increase of 2.9% on the base amount. What about the future? The Fed has either had its last interest rate reduction or there is possibly one more. After that, we will see increases over time due to inflation. If the Fed raises the prime just 1% in the future, it will translate into an 8.6% increase by Citibank. If the Fed raises the prime just 2% in the future, it will translate into an 14.3% increase by Citibank.

 från

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#9 Du var både för och emot hans teorier den gången om jag inte missminner mig.

Det finns fakta säger du: "Folk där ute har det väldigt svårt.... svårt försörja barnen".... "någon måste göra något åt det".

Det är nog dags att sätta perspektiv på tillvaron! Fattigdom och svält har varit på nedgång under ganska lång tid nu. Lite fakta.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

om många blir veganer så kommer de att leva längre och sätta press på välfärden

schnitzel , nicht danke, but a radeberger

don't be a turkey
NNT

#12

Du skrev själv : #47 Tur för dig att du inte hållet med Malthus då :) För om så skulle du väl ha en ljus framtid utan mat och fylld av svält att se fram emot... skitskoj.

...

De stigande matpriserna i världen har redan omintetgjort flera år av fattigdomsbekämpning. Det internationella samfundet måste vidta omedelbara och långsiktiga åtgärder för att hantera matkrisen, sade FN:s generalsekreterare Ban Ki-moon nyligen.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

1. Var bor det flest fattiga människor, i Indien eller i Afrika?

 
2. Hur stor andel av världens befolkning lever på mindre än en dollar om dagen?
11%, 21%, 41% eller 61%

3. Var är barnadödligheten störst?
a. I Sri Lanka eller i Turkiet
b. I Estland eller i Sydkorea
c. I Malaysia eller i USA

4. Hur många av världens barn går idag i grundskolan?
44%, 64% eller 84%

5. Vilket land gav mest bistånd 2005
- I faktiska kronor och ören?
Sverige, Norge, Japan eller USA
- I procent av landets intäkter?
Sverige, Norge, Japan eller USA

6. Vad är medellivslängden i världen?
55 år, 65 år eller 75 år

7. Medellivslängden i Botswana var 1990 65 år. Idag är den nästan lägst i världen. Hur låg är den?
31 år, 36 år, 39 år eller 43 år

8. 1970 dog nästan vart fjärde egyptiskt barn innan fem års ålder. Hur stort är procenttalet idag?
24%, 19%, 14%, 9% eller 4%

svar

 1. Indien. 360 miljoner människor i Indien lever på mindre än en dollar om dagen. I hela Afrika är motsvarande siffra 320 miljoner.

2. 21 procent. Fattigdomen i världen har minskat från 28 procent 1990. Målet är att minska fattigdommen med hälften till 2015, så att "bara" 14 procent av världens befolkning räknas som fattig.

3a. Turkiet har dubbelt så hög barnadödlighet som Sri Lanka.
3b. Estland har dubbelt så hög barnadödlighet som Sydkorea.
3c. Kuggfråga, USA och Malaysia har lika hög barnadödlighet.

4. 84 procent av alla barn i världen är inskrivna i grundskolan. Målet är att alla barn ska gå i grundskola 2015.

5a. USA gav mest bistånd i dollar räknat, följt av Japan, Storbritannien
och Frankrike. Däremot gav USA nästan minst i förhållande till sin nationalinkomst. Räknat i förhållande till bruttonationalinkomst per capita gav USA däremot minst av givarländerna 2005 - 0,22 procent.
5b. I procent av ländernas intäkter gav Norge mest (0,87%), under
2005, följt av Luxemburg och Danmark. Sverige hamnar på fjärde plats. Sveriges mål är att under 2006 nå 1 procent av BNI.

6. Den uppskattade livslängden i världen är 65 år.

7. Den uppskattade medellivslängden i Botswana har fallit från 65 till drygt 36 år.

8. Fyra procent.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

1) Nytt statistikprojekt kan förändra bilden av världens ekonomier

2)

Haken är denna. När vi säger att vi ska halvera hungern och fattigdomen, är det faktiskt skillnad på andelen och antalet. Millenniemålet utgår från andelen. Men vad gör vi om andelen fattiga minskar till hälften om antalet undernärda barn samtidigt ökar? Har vi lyckats då eller har vi misslyckats? Jag skriver inte det här för att vara näpsig nu när alla kurvor pekar uppåt. Jag skriver det därför att det är ett troligt scenario om dagens utveckling håller i sig. Ska vi korka upp champagnen i alla fall?

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Fed Says `Historical Highs' of Banks Tighten Lending Standards

A net 70 percent of banks increased loan rates over their cost of funds for commercial and industrial borrowing, according to the central bank's quarterly survey of senior loan officers released today in Washington. That compares with 45 percent in the January survey, the Fed said.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#13 Hehe, hur man än vänder sig är ändan bak!

#14 Lika snabbt kan fallande matpriser återställa läget. En så stark trend vi sett av kapitalistisk fattigdomsbekämpning bryts inte av att ris går från jättebilligt till okej. När denna prisbubbla spräng, precis som många andra bubblor du är så noga med att påpeka här gång på gång, så kan det bli annat ljud i pipan. Ett perspektiv som du, och andra för den delen, missar är ocskå vad råvaruexporterande fattiga länder har att vinna på höga råvarupriser. Hur tror du höga priser på risk, kakao och annat påverkar de fattiga bönder som säljer det? De klagar knappast.

Rekomenderar läsning av länken i #12 för att se hur de stora trenderna rör sig.

#15 Vet inte vart du vill komma med det där 1-X-2. Kanske lyfter det något ögonbryn här... Lägger in lita andra perspektiv:

1. Indien har till skillnad från stora delar av Afrika en kraftfull ekonomisk utveckling i ryggen som har potentialen att utradera fattigdomen rekordsnabbt. Så vem som "leder" nu behöver inte betyda något alls.
2. Vad får du för en dollar är den viktiga frågan. PPP.
3. Lägre och lägre...
4. Fler och fler...
5. Bistånd är, i stort, värdelöst slöseri.
6. Stigande...
7. Varför gick det fel i Botswana... Varför sprang tigerekonomierna förbi från att ha haft liknande förhållanden?
8. Bra!

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#14 Ban Ki-moon representerar en korrupt jätte på lerfötter som har en högsta önskan och det är att utöka sitt inflytande och bli större. Sådant bör vi misstro.

Finns en mycket enklare lösning än att klåpare till politiker skall lägga sig i sånt de inte begriper. Låt de fattiga bönderna äga och investera i sin egen mark. Slopa CAP och alla destruktiva jordbrukssubventioner i EU och USA.

Voila. En kostnadseffektiv, anti-byråkratisk lösning som skulle skapa otroligt mycket välstånd samt mäta många barns magar. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#19 är du kvar i LUF?

hur klarar sig sv eller europa för den delen utan jordbruk?

det finns en sociokulturellt dimension, men framförallt beredskapen

eller vill du käka höns fr iowa och tanganyka? 

don't be a turkey
NNT

#20 "är du kvar i LUF"? Vad är det där för jävla trams du håller på med, skärp dig för fan och släpp sargen.

Angående sakfrågan: Vad säger dig att Sverige/Europa skulle bli utan jordbruk om CAP avskaffades?

Sociokulturell? Menar du med det kossor som subventioneras till den milda grad att de kunde få åka 1:a klass jorden runt + cash att handla i tax-freen med? Nej tack, jag avstår. Vill du betala det får du gärna göra det på prislappen i butik.

Transporter och folks miljömedvetande kommer att kvarhålla lokal produktion. Så måla inte upp fan på väggen.

Frågan kokar ned till varför vi skall ha ett Sovjetsystem inom just jordbruket? Varför då inte inom alla andra näringsgrenar?

Datorchips från Taiwan? - Näe fy tusan! 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

:-) ok, ville inte reta dig i den graden

med sociokulturell menar jag att hålla till tiv bönderna, som behövs

det är just i sovjet och omnejd då fria bönderna blev krossade med förödande effekter som följd.

och du vet vad som hände när sockersubventionerna togs bort-då klev in brasilien på banan, inte små glada producenter fr uganda eller bangladesh.

don't be a turkey
NNT

Bernanke, in a speech in New York today, also reiterated his call for lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for some struggling homeowners. He said proposals should be ``tightly targeted'' at borrowers at greatest risk of losing their properties, and avoid providing an incentive for defaults. 

Bernanke also reiterated his call for a stronger role for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-chartered companies that are the biggest sources of money for U.S. mortgages, to ease the crisis.

...

Bernanke's comments seem to ``fit hand-in-glove with the legislation that Congress is going to bring out later this week,'' said Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``He's very concerned about housing, the subprime crisis spreading to the rest of the country.''

.............

Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures

As a consequence of rising delinquencies, foreclosure proceedings were initiated on some 1.5 million U.S. homes during 2007, up 53 percent from 2006, and the rate of foreclosure starts looks likely to be yet higher in 2008.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

vacant homes

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#23

Dollar Declines as Bernanke Signals Growth to Slow on Housing

``We still look for the euro against the dollar to head higher,'' said David Forrester, a currency economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore. ``The U.S. economy isn't out of the woods yet, and Bernanke's comments reaffirm that.''

ha en bra dag

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Fannie Mae to Loosen Policies to Combat Housing

Fannie Mae today reported a first-quarter loss of $2.19 billion amid rising homeowner defaults, and said that it will cut its dividend and raise $6 billion in capital. McLean, Virginia- based Freddie Mac will report results on May 14.

.............................

I'm not sure if I'm more disappointed about the earnings for this quarter or for the (housing) outlook for next year," said Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer of Advisors Capital Management in Paramus, New Jersey. "They are clearly still having repercussions from the subprime and market valuation problems."

Aktien föll fört med 6 % för att vända upp

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Fed's Hoenig Says `Serious' Inflation Risk May Prompt Rate Hike

``There is a significant risk that higher inflation will become embedded in the economy and require significant monetary policy tightening to reduce it,'' Hoenig said in the prepared text of a speech in Denver. Consumers are gaining an ``inflation psychology to an extent that I have not seen since the 1970s and early 1980s.''

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#27

 

K.C. Fed?s Hoenig Worries About ?Inflation Psychology?

A veteran U.S. central bank official said Tuesday he?s worried about a deteriorating inflationary environment, and suggested that when the Federal Reserve begins to raise rates, it could do so swiftly.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said rising inflationary pressures are "troublesome" and a "serious" matter. "The bigger concern is that these increases are beginning to generate an inflation psychology to an extent that I have not seen since the 1970s and early 1980s," he said. Hoenig added that "there is a significant risk that higher inflation will become embedded in the economy and require significant monetary policy tightening to reduce it." He tied rising prices primarily to overseas factors, including a "sizable decline" in the U.S. dollar?s value.

The policy maker spoke in comments prepared for delivery before the Economic Club of Colorado. Hoenig isn?t currently a voting member of the interest rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, which many market participants believe has neared the end of what?s been an extensive campaign of interest-rate cutting.

Hoenig?s views on the economy were relatively upbeat, even as he described the nation as being "at the brink of a recession." He suggested interest rates were close to where they needed to be.

"The current accommodative stance should be sufficient to cushion the economy
from a deeper slowdown and the risks that financial disruptions could spill over to the broader economy," he said. As the economy and markets improve "it will be necessary for the Federal Reserve to remove the policy accommodation in a timely manner."

Citing "room for optimism," Hoenig said "financial markets appear to have stabilized somewhat, and the economy should pick up in the second half of the year as fiscal and monetary stimulus take hold." The official said he believe markets? role in the current turmoil has been overstated, and that higher energy prices and housing woes have exacted the greater toll. He also said he believes the "credit crunch" hasn?t proved as damaging as some had feared.

Hoenig reckoned that housing troubles have had a "large effect" on the U.S. gross domestic product, lowering output by 1% on average over the last two years. The recent surge in oil prices will likely take "at least another full percentage point off of GDP growth."

Hoenig fretted that some of the Fed?s efforts to right conditions in financial markets ? in particular its efforts to save Bear Stearns ? may be leading market participants to believe they?ll be bailed out in the future. "Many of the steps public authorities have taken over the last year to stabilize the financial system seem likely to weaken market discipline and extend moral hazard problems to a much wider financial marketplace," Hoenig said. - Michael S. Derby

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

MVH SPX970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Video

The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought

Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses his book, The Black Swan in relation to predicting the future, learning from the consequences of the unknown, and the power of randomness.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Kevin Phillips on the U.S. shark tank and other ills

Ni kan se eller läsa hela intervju här

"Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism" 

Kevin Phillips, author of "Bad Money - Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism" was interviewed by Amy Goodman at Democracy Now (hat tip DK). A few of the highlights appear below.

First, on the types of sharks that the United States is currently swimming with inside a "shark tank" as it heads into a recession (this would be in contrast to the much preferred "shark cage", where metal bars separate the swimmers from the sharks):


Finance dominates the US economy
Massive debt, both public and private
The collapse of home prices
Global commodity inflation
Lousy economic statistics
The price of oil

He also noted that every time the government says things are getting better or that the worst is behind us, then things get worse. #0 Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson sa de förre veckan: "We are closer to the end of this problem .

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

2008-05-07 20:02:20 - Nyhetsbyrån Direkt
USA: AKUT FAS FINANSKRIS TILL STORA DELAR ÖVER ENL SOROS

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den akuta fasen i den amerikanska
finanskrisen är till stora delar över. Men ekonomin känner
först nu av effekten av en viss ljusning.
Det uppgav Georg Soros för journalister i Washington
på onsdagen, enligt Bloomberg News.
Enligt Georg Soros har den amerikanska finanskrisen
förorsakats av "brister i regelverk". Den senaste tidens mer
positiva börsklimat i USA är ett baissemarknadsrally, menar
den välkände finansmannen.
Enligt Bloomberg sammanställningen har världens
största banker och mäklarhus rapporterat kreditförluster och
nedskrivningar på kring 319 miljarder dollar sedan den
amerikanska marknaden för bolån med hög risk kollapsat./RP  

vet inte vad man ska tro om soros ... men han snackar 99 av 100 ggr ur egen posse gissar jag.

#31

Buffet för några dagar sen, Soros idag och Paul Krugman för  2 dagar sen... och alla säger att  det värsta är över...

Med all respekt för dessa herrar som bara för  några veckor  sade att vi inte har sett det värsta och av nån anledning så är finanskrisen  är över idag

Men jag köpper tyvärr inte det... Fed lyckats stoppa blödninger... och inget mer

THE CRISES WILL BE OVER WHEN IT´S OVER.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

=) 

2008-05-07 21:30:33 - Nyhetsbyrån Direkt
FED: OVÄNTAT STOR ÖKNING KONSUMENTKREDITER I MARS ENL RAPPORT

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Konsumentkrediterna i USA steg
betydligt mer i mars än ekonomerna hade räknat med.
Ökningen blev 15,3 miljarder dollar till 2,56
triljoner dollar i mars, visar en färsk rapport från den
amerikanska centralbanken Federal Reserve.
Ökningen är den största sedan i november i fjol och
mer än dubbelt stor som marknaden hade räknat med, nämligen 6
miljarder dollar.
I februari ökade konsumentkrediterna med 6,5
miljarder, enligt en reviderad siffra.
"Konsumenterna kommer i kläm när inkomsterna inte
hänger med inflationen. Det leder till att de i allt högre
utsträckning lutar sig mot krediter för att ta sig igenom den
värsta nedgången i husmarknaden sedan den stora
depressionen", kommenterade en chefsekonom för Bloomberg News.
"Tiderna är länge förbi när man kunde ta ut pengar
från sina fastigheter för att spendera på varor tjänster",
fortsatte han.
Centralbankens rapport täcker enbart
konsumentkrediter, som kontokortsskulder och krediter
kopplade till bilköp. Inte bolån./RP  

#34 där ser man:-))

Det värsta är över säger dem...

U.S. Consumer Debt Rises More Than Forecast in March

``Consumers are strapped as incomes are not keeping up with inflation and this is leading them to rely increasingly on credit to see them through the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression,'' said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. ``The days of extracting cash from one's home to spend on goods and services are long gone.''

Say hello to credit cards!

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Angående Soros...

The damage done to the global financial system ``has to affect, in my opinion, the real economy,''

...

U.S. stocks are in ``a bear-market rally,'' Soros said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 10 percent since March 10.  

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Fitch sees more red ink for Ford, GM
Credit ratings agency downgrades Chrysler LLC

Although both companies have achieved substantial reductions in fixed costs, primarily through headcount reductions, Ford and GM will continue to experience heavy cash drains in 2008 and reduced liquidity," Chicago-based analyst Mark Oline wrote in a note.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

U.S. Stocks Decline, Led by Financials on New Securities Rules

``The market is obviously worried about what will be disclosed,'' said Janna Sampson, co-chief investment officer at Lisle, Illinois-based Oakbrook Investments LLC, which oversees about $1.4 billion. ``From an investor's perspective, you want to know the firm you are invested has a strong capital standing. Why these firms wouldn't disclose this data is a mystery.'' 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#28 det är jawboning, höja $ lite, my 2c

fattar inte hur konsumenternas inflatjonförväntingar påverkar bensinpriset eller andra dagliga konsumptionsvaror. det är sheichen som bestämmer, och amaranth

ok, det blir mindre botox eller rolex, men köt bröd sprit å bensin  ska man ha

don't be a turkey
NNT

Someone bought a buttload of May VIX 25 CALLs yesterday. A LOT of them. It may have been a hedging transaction, but still, it gives you pause. Those expire in two weeks, and you have to wonder - exactly why would you do that? I didn't catch the other months, so I don't know if it was a calendar spread, but my first reaction when I saw it was "huh?" To put this in perspective for the VIX to go from 18 to 25 would be a huge move upward - and be accompanied by a monstrous sell-off. 

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Vi får väl se om den som bettat gjorde rätt och VIX går norr över. 

Mvh Jamenvisst

kaben kommenterar kredimarknaden

Credit spreads on most instruments peaked in mid March but following the saving of Bear Stearns credit spreads have come down sharply. From this we can read that the bulk of credit bond writedowns have been taken and the acute liquidity problems have abated.

However, the extended period of liquidity problems and of credit market turbulence has resulted in macroeconomic concerns.

Thus we can see that interbank spreads (Ted-spreads) have not normalised, rather widened (at least in Europe) reflecting that banks still do not trust each other.

The credit crunch ha not abated, judging by lending surveys in the US and ECB area it has gotten worse. Banks are tightening lending standards and raising margins while demand is falling.

In conclusion the majority of credit bond writedowns have been taken and hence the acute liquidity crisis has abated. Instead banks are increasingly concerned about rising loan losses and falling revenues and hence unwilling to lend either to clients or to other banks. Asset quality issues are less dramatic and take longer time to cause problems but in absolute terms could cause far more problems for commercial banks (in contrast to investment banks).

Just like with credit bond writedowns and liquidity issues Nordic banks look safer than many others due to stronger economies and less historic excesses but loan losses will hit more evenly on banks with similar geographic and business exposure.  

har fått för mej att kaben är ett 'grundbullat hus' ...  :)    jag har hela rapporten om nån vill ha

#27     #28

IMF Says Inflation Back After Years of `Quiescence'

``This inflation speed-up must be taken seriously as it creates potentially significant challenges to economic stability,'' John Lipsky, the IMF's first deputy managing director, said in a speech in New York today. A return to 1970s- style high inflation and rising price expectations ``cannot be discarded out of hand,'' he said.  

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

AIG Will Raise $12.5 Billion After Quarterly Loss

 AIG had a first-quarter net loss of $7.81 billion, or $3.09 a share, compared with earnings of $4.13 billion, or $1.58, a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. The company wrote down the value of contracts to protect fixed-income investors by $9.11 billion.


...

Sullivan's job may be on the line unless he stems losses from the subprime mortgage collapse and reverses a 12-month stock decline of 38 percent. Financial products head Joseph Cassano stepped down after AIG reported the biggest loss in its 89-year history in the fourth quarter as so-called credit-default swaps issued by the insurer were written down by $11.1 billion.

...

AIG, which bought 76.4 million shares in 2007 and 12.2 million more through Feb. 15, said Feb. 28 it plans to halt repurchases after meeting commitments from last year.

Aktien faller nu med 6,68%

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Försäkringsjätten American
International Group, AIG, får sitt kreditbetyg sänkt till AA-
från tidigare AA av ratinginstitutet Standard & Poors.

Det skriver Bloomberg News.

Sänkningen kommer efter att AIG på torsdagen
presenterat en förlust på 7,8 miljarder dollar.

S&P uppger vidare att ytterligare sänkningar kan bli
aktuella längre fram./

AIG reports $7.8 bln net loss; to raise $12.5 bln
Insurer hit by $9.11 bln write-down, $6.09 bln of realized investment losses

The worse-than-expected results were driven by a $9.11 billion write-down on a credit derivatives portfolio and $6.09 billion of net realized losses from AIG's investment portfolio.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#32

Angående Buffet

För några dagar sen sa buffet följande:

Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said May 3 the global credit crunch has eased for bankers. De Rato, in an interview yesterday in Madrid, said the worst is over and that the recent strengthening in the U.S. dollar is justified, after the currency gained almost 2 percent against the euro in the past month.

 Men läs detta

2:35 pm: Buffett - "There's going to be more pain" in the banking sector involving write-downs, but "no one knows" exactly how much. Some of the investment banks still have losses to be taken but a lot of it has already been taken. Depends on what happens with the economy in the future. But, Buffett says, the fear of a major financial panic has been squelched by the Fed's move to prevent Bear Stearns from collapsing.

2:38 pm: Buffett says Wells Fargo (in which he has a stake) will have larger than usual losses, but that won't be the end of the world and he'll keep owning it over the next 5-10 years.  "I would predict that Wells will be earning a lot more money ten years from now than it is now."  It wouldn't matter to him if Wells Fargo was delisted for three years and he could just watch the business.  He doesn't feel that way about every bank, of course.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Terminerna pekar nedåt när handeln
i New York inleds på fredagen efter att försäkringsjätten AIG
skapat förnyad oro för finanssektorn genom att meddela
behovet av 12,5 miljarder dollar i kapitalinjektion. Dessutom
pressas en rad konsumentaktier av ett rekordhögt oljepris.

"Nyheterna från AIG visar att allt ännu inte kommit
upp till ytan vad gäller finanssektorn. Det som krävs är en
period utan den här typen av nyheter samt större klarhet
kring bolagens finansiella ställningar", säger Chirin Gill
vid Daiwa SB Investments till Bloomberg News.

Det var efter torsdagens stängning som American
International Group kom med sin rapport för det första
kvartalet. Rapporten visade på en förlust på 7,8 miljarder
dollar samt behovet av en kapitalinjektion på 12,5 miljarder
dollar. Dessutom fick bolaget se sitt kreditbetyg hos
Standard & Poors sänkas till AA- från tidigare AA.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

det är närmare sec som har skapat oron

don't be a turkey
NNT

#26

Stupid Investment of the Week
Commentary: Investors should foreclose on troubled lender Fannie MaeStupid 

The stock is way down, the housing market is in the toilet, the dividend is being cut, the loss is worse than expected, and now the stock goes up 10%," he said at an investment seminar I attended this week. "Now I know the market is crazy."

...

Forget the quick little pop -- the stock had pretty much given that money back to the market within two days of the announcement -- Fannie Mae is the story of a stock that everyone has high hopes for, but which is currently too bogged down by trouble for the average investor to get involved.

...

As analyst Paul Miller of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. told Investor's Business Daily: "The market wants to be positive, so people listen when Fannie Mae hints that we're in the belly of this crisis, But we caution not to listen to what Fannie says, because they've been saying it for a couple quarters.

Their credit losses continue to go up and will continue to go up."

....

In fact, Fannie Mae officials warned that they expect "severe weakness" in the housing market for the rest of the year, with increased foreclosures and mortgage defaults. The apparent sense of optimism comes from investors feeling that things can't get any worse.

...

Morningstar Inc., the Chicago research firm, uses mathematical formulas to determine its "stock grades," measuring what's on a company's balance sheet rather than subjectively analyzing its prospects. Fannie Mae gets an "F" for growth and a "D" for profitability, and Morningstar isn't even trying to give it a grade for "financial health."

....

En fråga finns den nån som vet bankernas Balance sheet.?  Och för att svara på denna fråga svara på följande varför bankerna vill inte låna ut pengar...

Vi har två stora problem banker som inte vill låna ut pengar och länder som  hamstrar ris och olika mat produkter för att undvika inhemsk brist på mat vilket kommer att drabba andra länder som är beroende av denna import... Det senaste jag läst att Saudi-Arabien köpt ett fält ris i Thailande -om jag nu minns rätt- för att kunna försörja eget folk när krisen förvärras...

Råvaropriser fortsätter upp, Food priser fortsätter upp... Lönerna hänger inte med, folk förlorar sina hem... förlorar sina jobb...

Bernanke och andra chef banker har värre problem att handskas med...

Och jag tror att närmaste 6 månaderna kommer vi att få ett klarare bild... en bild som ingen vill se...

...

JAG UPPREPAR NI HAR INTE SETT DET VÄRSTA...OCH ATT FÖRSÖKA FÖRLÖJLIGA ALLA INLÄGG SOM  VARNAR PÅ ATT DET VÄRSTA ÄR INTE ÖVER ELLER ATT BEAR ÄR DESPERATA KOMMER TYVÄRR BARA VARA NÅGRA TOMMA ORD .

STAY CASH... DET ÄR DET BÄSTA RÅDET JAG KAN GE TILL DEM SOM TÄNKER KÖPA LÅNGSIKTIGT...

TIDEN TALAR TYVÄRR INTE FÖR BULLSCENARIO JUST NU. OCH JAG HAR SAGT I TIDIGARE INLÄGG, JAG KOMMER ATT ÄNDRA MIG NÄR JAG SER ATT LÄGGET HAR FÖRÄNDRAS.

But it won't happen without tremendous volatility, and trauma, and Fannie Mae is likely to make investors nauseous long before it makes them rich.

läs #45

Allt hänger ihop... Det är många bitar av många bilder som man måste samla för att se helheten och mer att vänta...

It WILL BE OVER WHEN IT´S OVER.

Ha en trevlig helg

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

håller med dig i det stora, men det är faktist inte uteslutet att us gör en higher high. tror att tran är på väg av att göra dubbel top, och de gjorde det även 1999, och undu toppade först 2000.

om hystorien skall upprepas

annars tror jag att sp kommer att tangera sina ma100/200 i månad

don't be a turkey
NNT

#49

Den som utesluter nåt bör sluta följa marknaden.

FedEx Corp. Revises Earnings Guidance

"Since we provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter in March when the crude oil price was slightly above $100 per barrel, our estimated fuel costs for the quarter have increased more than 7 percent, or $100 million from our previous estimate, and the weak economy has restrained demand for U.S. domestic express package and LTL freight services," said Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer. "While we have dynamic fuel surcharges in place, they cannot keep pace in the short-term with rapidly rising fuel prices. This revised outlook assumes no additional increases to the current fuel price environment and no further weakening of the economy."

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Strakars konsumenter...

Americans are now forced to spend a large and rising portion of their disposable income on necessities: food, fuel and debt service. Such expenses now require 31.5% of disposable personal income (DPI), the most in 25 years. While outside factors may also affect consumer sentiment (red line), it closely tracks spending on necessities (blue line). As prices for such items rise faster than income, less money is left over for everything else and confidence drops.

Both measures are now back to levels last seen in 1982-83 se bild

vad är lösningen?

Att råvaropriser, food priser faller...   eller höja lönerna och här bör olika fackorganisationer agera...

Hoppas att Fed inte väntar för länge med att fortsätta baila out wall street medan inflationen stiger...

#1  klockan tickar...  herre Ben.

I Sverige vi har sett två bilder senaste dagrana den ena dagen talar man om en höjning av räntan och dagen efter talar man om en säkning...

Vi får väll se...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

VERSALER ÄR BRA 

HSBC to Take $4.6 Billion Subprime Writedown, Observer Reports

The writedowns will take the total amount of credit losses linked to the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market at the London-based bank to almost $17 billion over the past 15 months, the British newspaper said today. HSBC may have to make writedowns totaling $15 billion this year, taking losses to $27 billion over two years, the Observer said, citing James Hutson, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#53

Despite the huge write-offs, HSBC's profits are again expected to be ahead of last time, reflecting a strong performance in its Asian business - which accounts for half the group's profits - and some market share gains in the UK. 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Så mycket har matpriserna ökat

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

MBIA Posts Loss of $2.4 Billion as CDO Slump Deepens

 May 12 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc., the bond insurer whose market value tumbled 87 percent in the past year, posted a net loss that was wider than analysts estimates as the slump in mortgage securities deepened.

...

``Earnings pressure will remain for several quarters as writedowns continue,'' Peter Plaut, senior vice president at Imperial Capital, wrote in an e-mail today. ``This is no longer a AAA industry for the players that diversified into volatile financial derivatives.''

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#55 Ökat? Beror väl på närifrån du mäter :) Sätt ett minustecken framför siffrorna i bilden så hamnar du på en annan sanning. Som dessutom är mer trendmässigt/långsiktigt korrekt.

Och fortfarande är ju varorna på bilden billiga basvaror. Jag vet då ingen som skurit ned på riset eller mjölet pga dessa "höga pris".

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Citi's Pandit Faces `Impossible Feat,' Whitney Says

``I think it's an impossible feat,'' Whitney said. ``They don't have the revenue power, they don't have the earnings power in so many of their businesses. Even Stephen Hawking could not pull this off,'' she said, referring to the British physicist.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

GE exit from boat lending bad, but won't sink sector

CHICAGO (Reuters) - General Electric Co's (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) decision this week to no longer lend consumers money to buy motorhomes and boats was more bad news for the recreational vehicle and boat industry.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

1)

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den amerikanska ekonomin kommer
att förbättras något under det andra halvåret 2008.
Det sade Fedchefen i San Fransisco Janet Yellen på
tisdagen, rapporterar Bloomberg News.

Vidare sade hon att marknaderna är långt från
normala, men att det finns strimmor av hopp. Inflationen
bedömer Yellen kommer att lugnas under kommande kvartal.

Under talet i Vancouver sade den icke-röstande
Fedchefen för San Fransisco även att centralbankens
ränteinställning är "lämplig" för att den ekonomiska
tillväxten ska återupprättas medan kreditoron gradvis
lättar./CM

2)

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Nedgången i den amerikanska
ekonomin är kanske inte djup, men utdragen och krisen kan
komma att sluta med en högre inflation än önskvärt.

Det säger Fed-chefen i Dallas, Richard Fischer,
rapporterar Bloomberg News

3)

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Inflationen är på oacceptabla
nivåer enligt Fedchefen i Kansas City, Thomas Hoenig då han
talade i Oklahoma.

Samtidigt sade han att det är en stor utmaning för
Fed att begränsa inflationen, rapporterar Bloomberg News.

"Det finns en fara att psykologin kring inflationen
håller på att förändras", sade han när han talade vid ett
Rotary-möte.

Han sade även att ekonomin växer betydligt mindre än
dess potential

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Bank of England varnar för att
inflationen kan stiga upp till 4 procent i år, mer än två
procentenheter över centralbankens mål, trots att de i
praktiken halverat sina prognoser för tillväxten.

Det framgår av Bank of Englands inflationsrapport som
presenterades på onsdagen, enligt Thomson Financial News.

Enligt BOE:s huvudscenario väntas KPI-inflationen
stiga till runt 3,6 procent i höst på grund av högre
energipriser och importkostnader, förutsatt att räntorna
utvecklas på det sätt marknaden förväntar sig.

Det finns dock, enligt prognosspannet, en verklig
risk för att inflationen kan stiga till 4 procent eller till
och med över, vilket innebär en markant uppgång jämfört med
föregående inflationsrapport i februari.

Men inflationsproblemet är inte BOE:s enda problem,
eftersom centralbanken samtidigt varnar för att den brittiska
ekonomin kan köra fast i år och möjligtvis sjunka ned i
recession, som en följd av krisen på kreditmarknaderna.

Enligt BOE finns det en hög risk för att BNP-
tillväxten kan falla till en årstakt på 1 procent.

Om styrräntorna lämnas på dagens nivå väntas
inflationen falla ned mot 2-procentsmålet, medan BNP-
tillväxten antas sjunka till 1 procent i år och återhämta sig
till precis över 2 procent inom två år, enligt centralbanken.

När inflationen överstiger 3 procent måste chefen för
Bank of England, Mervyn King, skriva ett brev till
finansministern, Alistair Darling, och förklara sig. BOE:s
inflationsprognoser visar att ett antal brev kommer att
behöva skrivas framöver då inflationen väntas överstiga 3
procent under "ett antal" kvartal.

"Sammantaget ligger riskerna mot tillväxten på
nedsidan på medellång sikt, medan inflationsriskerna ligger
på uppsidan", skriver Bank of England./SP-ED

....

``The Monetary Policy Committee is facing its most difficult challenge yet,'' King told reporters in London after the bank published its quarterly forecasts. ``We are traveling along a bumpy road as the economy rebalances. Monetary policy shouldn't try to prevent that adjustment.'' It ``must focus on bringing inflation back to the target in the medium term.''

...

``It's going to be extremely difficult to be cutting rates at the same time as writing letters because inflation is so high,'' said Simon Hayes, an economist at Barclays Capital who formerly helped compile the Bank of England's forecasts. ``On the credibility front that's a very difficult point to get across.''





mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Konsumentpriserna i USA steg med
0,2 procent i april, jämfört med månaden före. Jämfört med
samma månad 2007 steg KPI med 3,9 procent.

Det visar siffror från den amerikanska
statistikmyndigheten.

Analytiker hade räknat med att priserna skulle stiga
med 0,3 procent jämfört med månaden före och stiga med 4,0
procent jämfört med samma månad i fjol, enligt Bloomberg News
snittprognos.

Kärn-KPI, exklusive livsmedel och energi, ökade med
0,1 procent i april, och ökade 2,3 procent jämfört med samma
månad i fjol.

Analytikernas konsensusprognos låg på en uppgång med
0,2 procent respektive 2,4 procent.

I mars steg konsumentpriserna 0,3 procent jämfört med
månaden före och kärn-KPI steg 0,2 procent. Inflationstakten
var 4,0 procent för KPI och 2,4 procent för kärn-KPI./PD-KBR

 ``The effects from slowing growth are starting to pull down inflation,'' Zach Pandl, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said before the report. ``Companies aren't in a good position right now'' to raise prices.

...

Food prices, which account for about a fifth of the CPI, jumped 0.9 percent, the most since January 1990. The increase was paced by rising costs for fresh fruits and pork.


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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Freddie Mac Posts Loss, Plans to Raise $5.5 Billion

Freddie Mac rose in early New York Stock Exchange trading after reporting a first-quarter net loss of $151 million, or 66 cents a share, beating the 84 cent average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The McLean, Virginia-based company will raise the capital through the sale of common and preferred shares ``in the near future,'' according to a statement today.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Den estniska regeringen hade
räknat med en inbromsning i den ekonomiska tillväxttakten,
men att den skulle sjunka till 0,4 procent under första
kvartalet, jämfört med motsvarande kvartal året före, var en
överraskande stark inbromsning.

Det sade Estlands premiärminister Andrus Ansip i en
skriftlig kommentar till Bloomberg News.

"En fortsättning av tillväxttakten från de senaste
åren skulle oundvikligen ha lett oss in i en ekonomisk kris.
Men det preliminära estimatet från statistikkontoret på 0,4
procent var överraskande lågt", skrev Andrus Ansip.

Han konstaterade att trots den låga tillväxten under
det första kvartalet så är arbetslösheten i Estland fortsatt
"minimal", 4,2 procent.

"I den nuvarande fasen av den ekonomiska utvecklingen
bör vi alla bidra till att en hälsosam andhämtningspaus följs
av en ny snabb uppgång. Det är viktigt att arbeten och
produktionsresurser flyttas till sektorer som konkurrerar mer
på utländska marknader. Det är nödvändigt att vår
arbetsmarknad blir mer flexibel. Därför bör vi anta den
planerade arbetsmarknadslagstiftningen snabbare än tidigare
planerat", sade Andrus Ansip.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#62

Today's report showed energy expenses were unchanged after a 1.9 percent increase in March as gasoline prices dropped 2 percent. Fuel oil costs jumped 4.4 percent and natural gas prices climbed 4.8 percent.

Hur han man skriva att gazoline prices föll med 2% när vi vet att priset steg faktiskt med 9,5%   från 3,29 dollar till 3,60% dollar

This Week In Petroleum

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#65

Rensat för säsongsmönster? 

Mvh, /Leif

.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

The number of Americans on food stamps just hit an all-time high. During January and February 2008 an average of 27,675,000 Americans participated in the program, 1.4 million more than at the same time last year. se bild

The US Food Stamp Program is a federal assistance program that provides food to low and no income people living in the United States.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Freddie Mac Aktien upp med över 9% 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

U.S. Foreclosures Rise 65 Percent as Vacated Homes Add to Glut

The collapse of the U.S. housing market, the worst since the Great Depression, is contributing to the economic slowdown and may push the economy into a recession. Median prices for a single- family home fell 7.7 percent in the first quarter, the biggest drop in 29 years, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday. There were 4.06 million U.S. homes for sale at the end of March, 40,000 more than the prior month, the Realtors association said in an April 22 report.

``Inventory levels have soared to unprecedented levels'' Brian Fabbri, chief North American economist for BNP Paribas, said in an interview. ``Builders and homeowners have to lower their prices significantly to sell that inventory out.''

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#62

Ingen inflation...30 year bond yield  säger nåt annat

lånat bilden

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#71

TNX  

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Former Fed chairman Volcker says financial engineering failed test of stability

'I believe there is no escape from the conclusion that, faced with the kind of recurrent strains and pressures typical of free financial markets, the new system has failed the test of maintaining reasonable stability and fluidity,' Volcker said in prepared testimony to the Joint Economic Committee.

Financial system needs more regulation, Volcker says

"The underlying problem, I believe, is that mathematic modeling ... cannot easily take account of the human element of markets -- the episodes of 'irrational exuberance' or conversely 'unreasoned despair' that characterize extreme financial disturbance," he testified.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Bernanke `Strongly' Urges Banks to Raise More Capital

``I strongly urge financial institutions to remain proactive in their capital-raising efforts,'' Bernanke said in a speech in Chicago today. ``Doing so not only helps the broader economy but positions firms to take advantage of new profit opportunities as conditions in the financial markets and the economy improve.''

...

Bernanke said the credit crisis continues to confound the economy. ``Events continue to unfold,'' he said, adding that ``the financial stress we continue to experience'' stemmed from a separation of lending and distribution of credit to investors.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

White House Proposes Wall Street Overhaul; Interview With Joseph Stiglitz


DOBBS: Let's start with this proposal. I -- I have to tell you, I'm just shaking my head as I think about Henry Paulson, the treasury secretary, saying it's neither accurate nor fair to suggest that this is a failure of regulation, what's happening with our credit markets

STIGLITZ: He's wrong. It is a failure of regulation. In fact, one of the ironies of this whole discussion is they want to give more power to the Fed. The Fed, which flooded the market with liquidity, which did not put in regulations until after the crisis, In fact, closing the barn door after the horse is out. And now to reward them for their excellent job, they want to give them more power.

 DOBBS: Is -- the arrogance and the incompetence of this administration. I have seen incompetent administrations, of course, before in various quarters, but it's so pervasive in this one.

But when talking about regulation, the idea that first of all this administration after of its nonsense about free markets unfettered and free trade, irrespective of cost, to be coming back to even talking about regulation, there is -- the lack of intellectual honesty here is just, to me, horrific.

STIGLITZ: Well, one aspect that I -- they bailed out Bear Stearns.

DOBBS: Right.

STIGLITZ: So you know, if you believe in free and unfettered markets, why not let it just collapse? Well, good reason. The good reason is that it might have led -- led to the collapse of the whole financial market.

But that's why you have regulation. You just don't build better hospitals. You try to stop the diseases before they lead you to be in the hospital.

DOBBS: There are so many, I guess, pandemics at large right now, whether it is in terms -- in terms of economic policy, foreign policy, domestic policy, as a result of this administration's misguided policies. But nothing more toxic, more corrosive than the war in Iraq where we've lost, as I just reported and as I report each night, more than 4,000 fatalities and almost 30,000 wounded, and more than 13,000 of them seriously.

But the economic costs, as well. It is, again, just simply tremendous, as you document in your new book, "The Three Trillion Dollar War."

STIGLITZ: It's hard to conceive...

DOBBS: Three trillion dollars.

STIGLITZ: It's hard to conceive of what that number means. But just to put a couple of examples, to put it in a frame, you know, a few years ago the administration said we have a fundamental problem with our Social Security system.

DOBBS: Right.

STIGLITZ: They wanted to scare the American people.

DOBBS: Right.

STIGLITZ: Well, in the last five years, we've created an unfunded entitlement...

DOBBS: Right.

STIGLITZ: ... for our veterans, the people who fought for us.

DOBBS: And many of whom -- whom will have to -- will require intensive care for the rest of their lives.

STIGLITZ: Yes. And we're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars.

DOBBS: Right.

STIGLITZ: This is the first war in America's history when, as we went to war we already had a deficit, the administration asked our young people to go fight, but didn't say we ought to have shared sacrifice. Instead, it gave a tax cut for the richest Americans.

DOBBS: Right.

STIGLITZ: And so every dollar of this war has been financed by borrowing; 40 percent of this has been borrowing from abroad. First time since the Revolutionary War.

DOBBS: For the first time since the Revolutionary War, as well, we have a -- we have a national debt of $9 trillion, a trade debt of $6 trillion. And that trade debt is rising faster, including the capital that we have to borrow to sustain ourselves. That -- that debt is rising faster than our national debt.

I mean, is there at any point at which we're going to come to terms with the devastating reality of our economy? Whether it's $53 trillion in unfunded liabilities or that $9 trillion national debt, a $6 trillion trade debt, and a $3 trillion war?

STIGLITZ: No. But the war is in one sense at the core of the problem we're facing today, because it's the one thing that is a single, you know, the single biggest piece.

Over $1 trillion of the amount of the increase in the debt, national debt, in the last five years, going forward, is due to the war alone. By 2017, the war, itself, will be responsible for over $2 trillion of the national debt.

DOBBS: And we don't have an election until November, I might point out. Joseph Stiglitz, it's always good to have you here.

STIGLITZ: Nice to be here.

DOBBS: Thanks.

The book is "The Three Trillion Dollar War.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

In the Eye of the Economic Hurricane

There seems to be sentiment developing that the U.S. has weathered the worst of the current cyclical economic storm and blue skies are ahead. We disagree. Any blue skies you see are likely to be short lived. The economy is in the relative calm of the eye of the business-cycle hurricane. The mortgage credit problems are not over. And credit problems in other sectors are just beginning as the housing recession spreads to the rest of the economy. When the economy recovers from the current recession, perhaps in the first half of 2009, that recovery is likely to be muted as financial institutions are still rebuilding their capital and, therefore, will not be able to extend much credit to the private sector.

...

Although we believe the FOMC is on hold for an extended period, if it were to change the funds rate over the remainder of the year, we would put the probabilities of a reduction in the rate much higher than the probabilities of an increase in the rate.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Det index som University of
Michigan publicerar varje månad över stämningen bland de
amerikanska konsumenterna sjönk till 59,5 i maj jämfört med
62,6 i april.

Det framgår av preliminära siffror på fredagen.

Analytiker hade väntat sig en nedgång till 62,0
enligt en enkät från Bloomberg News.

Undersökningen visar vidare att konsumenterna väntar
en inflationstakt på 5,2 procent på ett års sikt, jämfört med
4,8 procent föregående månad. På fem års sikt väntar
konsumenterna en inflationstakt på 3,3 procent, jämfört med
3,2 procent föregående månad./KBR-ED

och jag skrev #0 Det är inflation förväntnigarna som kommer att ställa till det för fed...
 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

PRESS CONFERENCE on ?world economic situation and prospects?

For country groups, there would be a slowdown in all regions, he said. In the Africa region, if the pessimistic scenario were to work out, economic growth would almost come to a standstill, dropping to 2.2 per cent in 2008 and 1.1 per cent in 2009, which would be a major obstacle to the prospects of those countries achieving the Millennium Development Goals. In East and South Asia, a major slowdown was expected from 11 per cent in 2007 to about 8.5 per cent in 2008, with India suffering. Latin America, which did better than expected in 2007, but had close trade linkages with the United States economy, was expected to suffer the very strong negative impacts of lowered demands for its exports into 2008 and 2009, leading to lowered growth performance.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#77 jänkare har alla inopererade chips i arslet

hur fasen kan en konsument räkna inflatjonen om några år om de inte kan peka washington dc på kartan?

bara undrar 

don't be a turkey
NNT

Bra fråga men jag tror man vänder sig till folk som vet eller har en aning vad frågorna handlar om.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 

...

En sak jag inte förstår, om nu finans krisen ärö över varför BKX är närmare Januari botten än Augusti toppen?

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#73

Video

Paul Volcker on the Financial Crisis

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#62 #65

Inflation, Bob Pisani, Conspiracy, and,  

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#82 Killen bör nog ta en grundkurs i statistik så att han förstår vad säsongsjustering av data innebär och varför den görs. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

As Prices Rise, Crime Tipsters Work Overtime

For this year, everyone that?s called has pretty much been just looking for money," said Sgt. Lawrence Beller, who answers Crime Stoppers calls at the Sussex County, N.J., sheriff?s office. "That?s as opposed to the last couple of years, where some people were just sick of the crime and wanting to do something about it."

...

"When the economy gets rough, people have to be creative," she said. "They might give a tip where they wouldn?t have in the past."

...

Jim Cogan, director of the Silicon Valley Crime Stoppers program in California, said most of the rewards offered by his program used to go unclaimed. But with large numbers of foreclosures and heavy job losses, Mr. Cogan said, "now we?re seeing rewards get picked up right away and our tipsters being frustrated when tips aren?t available as quickly as they need the money."

...

Last week, the Crime Stoppers coordinator there, Trish Routte, got a call from a man reporting drug activity, a tip that paid him $450. It was his second call in a week, said Ms. Routte, who recognized the caller?s voice.

"He told me he really didn?t want to call but he just had a new grandbaby and he needed the money," Ms. Routte said.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Today?s results of the Conference Board?s Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.1% from March but declined 1.83% compared to April 2007.

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Oil Producers Mask Decade's Worst S&P 500 Profit Drop

Without the $70 billion that oil producers earned in the last two quarters, profits at companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled 26 percent and 30.2 percent, the biggest decreases for any quarter since Bloomberg started compiling data in 1998. Energy companies made up almost half the income growth reported by S&P 500 companies in the first three months of 2008 as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, the data show.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

U.S. Producer Prices, Minus Food, Energy, Rise 0.4%

Businesses ``have considerable pipeline cost pressures,'' said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. While companies may find it tough to pass the costs on to consumers given the economic slowdown, today's figures are ``a reminder that inflation pressures reside even as we have slower growth,'' he said.

...

The core index was up 3 percent in April from a year earlier, the biggest gain since December 1991.

...

So far this year, wholesale costs are up 8.5 percent at an annual pace compared with 8.4 percent for the same time last year. The core rate has increased at a 5.2 percent annual pace, compared with 2.1 percent in the first four months of 2007.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Credit Crisis Will Extend Into 2009, Oppenheimer Says

``The real harrowing days of the credit crisis are still in front of us and will prove more widespread in effect than anything yet seen,'' analysts led by Meredith Whitney wrote in a research note today. ``Just as strained liquidity pushed so many small and mid-sized specialty finance companies to beyond the brink, we believe it will do the same with the U.S. consumer.''

...

``As the securitization market remains effectively closed for most asset classes, we believe more consumers will face the threat of default and banks will simply face far higher loss rates,'' Whitney said in the report. 

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Fed minutes signal lack of desire for more rate cuts

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- There was a lack of desire expressed at the Federal Reserve policy meeting for additional rate cuts in June or beyond, especially in light of the inflation outlook, according to an official summary of the meeting released Wednesday. Even more signs of weakness would not be a reason for addition cuts, the minutes said. "[S]everal members noted that it was unlikely to ease policy in response to information that the economy was slowing further," according to the summary. Fed officials did vote to cut rates at quarter-point at the April 29-30 meeting, but that was viewed as a "close call." FOMC members were clearly worried about the inflation outlook. Their forecast for headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption index jumped to a range of 3.1 to 3.4%, much higher than their previous forecast of a 2.1 to 2.4% rise.

The risk of higher inflation was just about even with the risks of an economic downturn, members said. Fears of an economic meltdown from a credit crunch had lessened, members added

...

Shift in Language

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Moody's Falls Most Ever After Ratings Error Probe

Moody's Corp. plunged the most since going public in 1998 in New York trading after the ratings company said it is conducting ``a thorough review'' of whether a computer error caused it to assign Aaa rankings to debt securities that later fell in value.

...

``If it is true, does that mean other products haven't been rated correctly?'' said Puneet Sharma, Barclays Capital's head of investment-grade credit strategy in London. ``Will they be downgraded? It could lead to turmoil.''

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Intressant fråga

How will financial institutions make money now that the securitization food chain is broken?

Nouriel Roubini | May 19, 2008

The most severe financial crisis in decades has not only damaged the balance sheet of financial institutions. It has also severely affected their P&L, i.e. the process of generating revenues and profits.

In the old "originate & hold" model (before securitization) financial institutions made money from the investment income of holding the credit risk of loans and mortgages. But in the brave new world of securitization where you "originate & distribute" the credit risk rather than hold it on balance sheet an increasing fraction of the income of financial institutions was coming from the fees and commissions involved in this securitization process. This food chain of fees on top of fees is now broken: securitization of mortgages, that was running at the annual rate of $1,000 billion in January of 2007, was down 95% to an annual rate of $50 billion by January of 2008. So the process of generating fees and commissions is broken.

Let?s consider in more detail this loan origination and securitization chain for residential mortgages, commercial real estate mortgages and leveraged loans financing LBOs?


In residential mortgages the process started with peddling mortgages that were toxic in every aspect of their features: no down payment, no verification of income, assets and jobs (the "no doc" loans that were effectively "liar" loans), interest rate only mortgages, negative amortization mortgages, and teaser rates. Why were these toxic mortgages peddled, originated and distributed after being sliced and diced? Because everyone in this securitization food chain was making a fee and transferring the credit risk to someone else down this food chain.

Think of this fee generation process along this long food chain: it started with mortgage brokers whose income/fee was based on maximizing the volume of mortgages being generated and approved; they had all the incentive to ignore the creditworthiness of the borrowers and maximize mortgage volume and their personal income. The fee generation machine then passed to the bank originating the mortgage that was packaging these mortgages into MBS and thus making a fee in this process and transferring the risk down the line to someone else; again the bank care little about the quality of it own origination as it was transferring the credit risk. The fee generation machine included the home appraisers who were being paid by the mortgage originators and had all the incentive to inflate the appraised value of the home to get more and more fees and more and more business; this fee machine also included the mortgage servicers who got fat fees from servicing the mortgages and getting even fatter fees when the hapless borrower falls behind in its mortgage payments and who thus have no incentive to prevent foreclosure. The securitization food chain continued with the investment banks slicing and dicing the MBS into the equity, mezzanine and senior tranches of CDOs and making fat fees on that process and on managing such CDOs. The fees compounded when the CDOs became CDOs of CDO (CDO squared) and CDOs of CDOs of CDOs (CDO cubed). Then the rating agencies that blessed these CDOs chains and tranches with AAA rating were getting their fat fees (and most of their profits) from rating - or better misrating - these toxic products and converting - via voodoo magic -bundles of BBB subprime mortgages into AAA rated tranches of CDOs. Along this fee generation machine the monoline insurers were making fat fees insuring these toxic instruments and providing additional AAA blessing on this garbage and trash. And finally if this garbage of CDOs (or CDOs cubed) was not fully distributed to clueless and greedy investors banks created off-balance sheet SIVs and conduits that would buy the leftover trash that no investor wanted to touch and repackaged it into structures that were financed with the most short term ABCP; these SIVs were then blessed with credit enhancement and guarantees of liquidity lines from the banks that made them de facto on balance sheet items even if they were de jure off balance sheet; but there were extra fat fees to be made from managing this toxic SIVs and conduits and thus the fee generation machine kept on rolling.

In this securitization food chain - or better scam - every institution made a fee and transferred the credit risk down the line. Then no wonder the credit risk was transferred to those who were the least able to understand it: somehow greedy and clueless investors searching for yield bought tranches of instruments - CDO or CDO cubed - that were new, exotic, complex, illiquid, marked-to-model rather than marked-to-market and misrated by the rating agencies. Who could then ever be able to correctly price or value a CDO cubed? And for all the talk about the benefits of financial innovation what was the social value of a CDO cubed? There was indeed zero social value in this type of financial innovation that is closer to a con game than to a financial product of any use.

So now that this credit house of cards has collapsed this securitization food chain is effectively dead and the process of generating fees - and thus profits - for financial institutions is severely hampered: fees are collapsing for mortgage brokers, home appraisers, mortgage originators, mortgage servicers, CDO managers, monoline insurers, rating agencies, SIV managers and so on.

A similar securitization food chain with fees upon fees and credit risk transfer was created for the credit bubble in commercial real estate mortgages and for leveraged buyouts.

In the case of commercial real estate mortgages the process started with a similar reckless origination based on high loan to value ratios and inflated expectations of rent increases. Then the commercial real estate mortgages were sliced and diced and repackaged into CMBS and the CMBS into CMOs and CDOs and then SIVs with all the related set of fees as in the residential mortgage food chain.

In the case of leveraged buyouts (LBOs) the process started with LBOs that should have never occurred in the first place as the last vintage of LBOs had reckless debt to earnings ratios of 8-10 as opposed to the historical average of 3-4. Thus highly leveraged buyouts with tons of debt and little equity took private borderline profitable corporations that should have never been loaded with such massive amounts of debt. And since credit was cheap - junk bond yield spreads bottomed at 250bps relative to Treasuries in June of 2007 - and investors were searching for yield hundreds of billions of dollars of LBO deals were generated with terms that did not make any sense (including covenant lite terms and PIK toggles). Then these LBOs were financed with leveraged loans and bridge loans; and then further sliced and diced into CLOs that were then stuffed into SIVs and conduits when they could not be sold to investors. Too bad that eventually - by early 2008 when this LBO and private equity bubble went bust - hundreds of billions of dollars of frozen leveraged loans and bridge loans were still sitting on the balance sheets of financial institutions being valued at 70 or 80 cents on the dollar.

So how will all these financial institutions generate revenues and profits now that this effective scam has mostly collapsed? Origination of new subprime and near prime (Alt A) mortgages is effectively dead; origination of new commercial real estate mortgages is nearly frozen; securitization of mortgages has collapsed by 95%; the entire CDO, CMO and CLO market is frozen with almost no new issuance; while the SIVs and conduits have collapsed with the rolloff of the ABCP paper that was financing these scams.

So how will mortgage brokers, banks, broker dealers, monoline insurers, rating agencies generate revenues and profits now that this slice & dice scheme has unraveled? The current market delusion that the worst is behind us for financial institutions is based on the view that most of the writedowns of the toxic assets have already been done. But this is not just a balance sheet problem. Now financial institutions have a more severe P&L problem, i.e. how to generate income and earnings from now on when they cannot originate junk any more. The entire income generating model of financial institutions - make income out of securitization fees rather than by holding the credit risk - is broken now that the generalized credit bubble (not just subprime mortgages) has burst; thus, how will these financial institutions generate earnings over time? Capital losses are one-time problems; but destruction of the income generation process is a more severe and persistent problem that will require banks and other financial institutions to rethink their overall business model of credit risk transfer. But there is no clear and sound new business model for them: going back to the old days of "originate and hold" is not fully possible while the new "originate and distribute" model has shown all of its wrong and distorted incentives, risks and systemic failures. So banks and other financial institutions will have to seriously rethink their business model and how they are going to make money: the model of slice and dice and pile fees upon fees and transfer the credit risk is broken. It is not clear if banks and other financial institutions have a better model. May they will have to go back to old fashioned banking: carefully assess the creditworthiness of their borrowers, lend on sensible terms and hold a good part of the credit risk now that the easy fee/profit generating machine of securitization is terminally broken
How will financial institutions make money now that the securitization food chain is broken?
Nouriel Roubini | May 19, 2008
The most severe financial crisis in decades has not only damaged the balance sheet of financial institutions. It has also severely affected their P&L, i.e. the process of generating revenues and profits.

In the old "originate & hold" model (before securitization) financial institutions made money from the investment income of holding the credit risk of loans and mortgages. But in the brave new world of securitization where you "originate & distribute" the credit risk rather than hold it on balance sheet an increasing fraction of the income of financial institutions was coming from the fees and commissions involved in this securitization process. This food chain of fees on top of fees is now broken: securitization of mortgages, that was running at the annual rate of $1,000 billion in January of 2007, was down 95% to an annual rate of $50 billion by January of 2008. So the process of generating fees and commissions is broken.

Let?s consider in more detail this loan origination and securitization chain for residential mortgages, commercial real estate mortgages and leveraged loans financing LBOs?


In residential mortgages the process started with peddling mortgages that were toxic in every aspect of their features: no down payment, no verification of income, assets and jobs (the "no doc" loans that were effectively "liar" loans), interest rate only mortgages, negative amortization mortgages, and teaser rates. Why were these toxic mortgages peddled, originated and distributed after being sliced and diced? Because everyone in this securitization food chain was making a fee and transferring the credit risk to someone else down this food chain.

Think of this fee generation process along this long food chain: it started with mortgage brokers whose income/fee was based on maximizing the volume of mortgages being generated and approved; they had all the incentive to ignore the creditworthiness of the borrowers and maximize mortgage volume and their personal income. The fee generation machine then passed to the bank originating the mortgage that was packaging these mortgages into MBS and thus making a fee in this process and transferring the risk down the line to someone else; again the bank care little about the quality of it own origination as it was transferring the credit risk. The fee generation machine included the home appraisers who were being paid by the mortgage originators and had all the incentive to inflate the appraised value of the home to get more and more fees and more and more business; this fee machine also included the mortgage servicers who got fat fees from servicing the mortgages and getting even fatter fees when the hapless borrower falls behind in its mortgage payments and who thus have no incentive to prevent foreclosure. The securitization food chain continued with the investment banks slicing and dicing the MBS into the equity, mezzanine and senior tranches of CDOs and making fat fees on that process and on managing such CDOs. The fees compounded when the CDOs became CDOs of CDO (CDO squared) and CDOs of CDOs of CDOs (CDO cubed). Then the rating agencies that blessed these CDOs chains and tranches with AAA rating were getting their fat fees (and most of their profits) from rating - or better misrating - these toxic products and converting - via voodoo magic -bundles of BBB subprime mortgages into AAA rated tranches of CDOs. Along this fee generation machine the monoline insurers were making fat fees insuring these toxic instruments and providing additional AAA blessing on this garbage and trash. And finally if this garbage of CDOs (or CDOs cubed) was not fully distributed to clueless and greedy investors banks created off-balance sheet SIVs and conduits that would buy the leftover trash that no investor wanted to touch and repackaged it into structures that were financed with the most short term ABCP; these SIVs were then blessed with credit enhancement and guarantees of liquidity lines from the banks that made them de facto on balance sheet items even if they were de jure off balance sheet; but there were extra fat fees to be made from managing this toxic SIVs and conduits and thus the fee generation machine kept on rolling.

In this securitization food chain - or better scam - every institution made a fee and transferred the credit risk down the line. Then no wonder the credit risk was transferred to those who were the least able to understand it: somehow greedy and clueless investors searching for yield bought tranches of instruments - CDO or CDO cubed - that were new, exotic, complex, illiquid, marked-to-model rather than marked-to-market and misrated by the rating agencies. Who could then ever be able to correctly price or value a CDO cubed? And for all the talk about the benefits of financial innovation what was the social value of a CDO cubed? There was indeed zero social value in this type of financial innovation that is closer to a con game than to a financial product of any use.

So now that this credit house of cards has collapsed this securitization food chain is effectively dead and the process of generating fees - and thus profits - for financial institutions is severely hampered: fees are collapsing for mortgage brokers, home appraisers, mortgage originators, mortgage servicers, CDO managers, monoline insurers, rating agencies, SIV managers and so on.

A similar securitization food chain with fees upon fees and credit risk transfer was created for the credit bubble in commercial real estate mortgages and for leveraged buyouts.

In the case of commercial real estate mortgages the process started with a similar reckless origination based on high loan to value ratios and inflated expectations of rent increases. Then the commercial real estate mortgages were sliced and diced and repackaged into CMBS and the CMBS into CMOs and CDOs and then SIVs with all the related set of fees as in the residential mortgage food chain.

In the case of leveraged buyouts (LBOs) the process started with LBOs that should have never occurred in the first place as the last vintage of LBOs had reckless debt to earnings ratios of 8-10 as opposed to the historical average of 3-4. Thus highly leveraged buyouts with tons of debt and little equity took private borderline profitable corporations that should have never been loaded with such massive amounts of debt. And since credit was cheap - junk bond yield spreads bottomed at 250bps relative to Treasuries in June of 2007 - and investors were searching for yield hundreds of billions of dollars of LBO deals were generated with terms that did not make any sense (including covenant lite terms and PIK toggles). Then these LBOs were financed with leveraged loans and bridge loans; and then further sliced and diced into CLOs that were then stuffed into SIVs and conduits when they could not be sold to investors. Too bad that eventually - by early 2008 when this LBO and private equity bubble went bust - hundreds of billions of dollars of frozen leveraged loans and bridge loans were still sitting on the balance sheets of financial institutions being valued at 70 or 80 cents on the dollar.

So how will all these financial institutions generate revenues and profits now that this effective scam has mostly collapsed? Origination of new subprime and near prime (Alt A) mortgages is effectively dead; origination of new commercial real estate mortgages is nearly frozen; securitization of mortgages has collapsed by 95%; the entire CDO, CMO and CLO market is frozen with almost no new issuance; while the SIVs and conduits have collapsed with the rolloff of the ABCP paper that was financing these scams.

So how will mortgage brokers, banks, broker dealers, monoline insurers, rating agencies generate revenues and profits now that this slice & dice scheme has unraveled? The current market delusion that the worst is behind us for financial institutions is based on the view that most of the writedowns of the toxic assets have already been done. But this is not just a balance sheet problem. Now financial institutions have a more severe P&L problem, i.e. how to generate income and earnings from now on when they cannot originate junk any more. The entire income generating model of financial institutions - make income out of securitization fees rather than by holding the credit risk - is broken now that the generalized credit bubble (not just subprime mortgages) has burst; thus, how will these financial institutions generate earnings over time? Capital losses are one-time problems; but destruction of the income generation process is a more severe and persistent problem that will require banks and other financial institutions to rethink their overall business model of credit risk transfer. But there is no clear and sound new business model for them: going back to the old days of "originate and hold" is not fully possible while the new "originate and distribute" model has shown all of its wrong and distorted incentives, risks and systemic failures. So banks and other financial institutions will have to seriously rethink their business model and how they are going to make money: the model of slice and dice and pile fees upon fees and transfer the credit risk is broken. It is not clear if banks and other financial institutions have a better model. May they will have to go back to old fashioned banking: carefully assess the creditworthiness of their borrowers, lend on sensible terms and hold a good part of the credit risk now that the easy fee/profit generating machine of securitization is terminally broken

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Ford said it now plans to produce 690,000 vehicles in North America during the second quarter, a further reduction of 20,000 units from previously announced planned production levels and a decline of 15 percent from the second quarter of 2007. The company plans to produce between 510,000 and 540,000 units in the third quarter, down 15 to 20 percent from the same period last year.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

1)

Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch
IEA Official Says Supplies May Plateau Below Expected Demand

By NEIL KING JR. and PETER FRITSCH
May 22, 2008; Page A1

The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world's top 400 oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.

A pessimistic supply outlook from the IEA could further rattle an oil market that already has seen crude prices rocket over $130 a barrel, double what they were a year ago. U.S. benchmark crude broke a record for the fourth day in a row, rising 3.3% Wednesday to close at $133.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

For several years, the IEA has predicted that supplies of crude and other liquid fuels will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day currently. Now, the agency is worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to surpass 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.

The decision to rigorously survey supply -- instead of just demand, as in the past -- reflects an increasing fear within the agency and elsewhere that oil-producing regions aren't on track to meet future needs.

"The oil investments required may be much, much higher than what people assume," said Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist and the leader of the study, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. "This is a dangerous situation."

The agency's forecasts are widely followed by the industry, Wall Street and the big oil-consuming countries that fund its work.

The IEA monitors energy markets for the world's 26 most-advanced economies, including the U.S., Japan and all of Europe. It acts as a counterweight in the market to the views of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The IEA's endorsement of a crimped supply scenario likely will be interpreted by the cartel as yet another call to pump more oil -- a call it will have a difficult time answering. Last week, the Saudis gave President Bush a lukewarm response to his plea for more oil, saying they were already adding 300,000 barrels a day to the market, an announcement that did nothing to cool prices.

At the same time, the IEA's conclusions likely will be seized on by advocates of expanded drilling in prohibited areas like the U.S. outer continental shelf or the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge.

The IEA, employing a team of 25 analysts, is trying to shed light on some of the industry's best-kept secrets by assessing the health of major fields scattered from Venezuela and Mexico to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. The fields supply over two-thirds of daily world production.

The findings won't be definitive. Big producers including Venezuela, Iran and China aren't cooperating, and others like Saudi Arabia typically treat the detailed production data of individual fields as closely guarded state secrets, so it's not clear how specific their contributions will be. To try to compensate, the IEA will use computer modeling to make estimates. It will also collect information gathered by IHS Inc., a major data and analysis provider based in Colorado, as well as the U.S. Geologic Survey, a smattering of oil and oil-service companies, and national petroleum councils.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#93

2)

Supply-Side Gloom

But the direction of the IEA's work echoes the gathering supply-side gloom articulated by some Big Oil executives in recent months. A growing number of people in the industry are endorsing a version of the "peak-oil" theory: that oil production will plateau in coming years, as suppliers fail to replace depleted fields with enough fresh ones to boost overall output. All of that has prompted numerous upward revisions to long-term oil-price forecasts on Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs grabbed headlines recently with a forecast saying that oil could top $140 a barrel this summer and could average $200 a barrel next year. Prices that high would add to the inflationary pressures weighing on the world economy and to the woes of fuel-sensitive industries such as airlines and autos.

The IEA's study marks a big change in the agency's efforts to peer into the future. In the past, the IEA focused mainly on assessing future demand, and then looked at how much non-OPEC countries were likely to produce to meet that demand. Any gap, it was assumed, would then be met by big OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran or Kuwait.

But the IEA's pessimism over future supplies has been building for some time. Last summer, the agency warned that OPEC's spare capacity could shrink "to minimal levels by 2012." In November, it said its analysis of projects known to be in the works suggested that the world could face a shortfall by 2015 of as much as 12.5 million barrels a day, unless there was a sharp drop in expected demand. The current IEA work aims to tally the range of investments and projects under way to boost production from the fields in question to get a clearer sense of what to expect in production flows.

"This is very important, because the IEA is treated as the world's only serious independent guardian of energy data and forecasts," says Edward Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers. Examining the state of the world's big oil fields could prod their owners into unaccustomed transparency, he says.

Some critics of the IEA, while praising its new study, say a revision in the agency's long-term forecasting is long overdue. The agency has failed to anticipate many of the big energy developments in recent years, such as the surge in Chinese demand in 2004 and this year's skyrocketing prices. "The IEA is always conflicted by political pressures," says Chris Skrebowski, a London-based oil analyst who keeps his own database on big petroleum projects and is pessimistic about supply. "In this case I think they want to make as incontrovertible as possible the fact that we are facing a real crunch."

U.S. Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Department's own forecasting shop, the Energy Information Administration, has long stuck to the same demand-driven methodology as the IEA, assuming that supply will keep up with the world's growing hunger for oil. But the U.S. agency also has embarked on its own supply study, which it hopes to complete this summer. Like the IEA, its preliminary findings are somewhat gloomy: They suggest daily output of conventional crude oil alone, now about 73 million barrels, will plateau at 84 million barrels, and that it will take a significant uptick in production of nonconventional fuels such as ethanol to push global fuel supplies over 100 million barrels a day by 2030.

"We are optimistic in terms of resource availability, but wary about whether the investments get made in the right places and at a pace that will bring on supply to meet demand," says Guy Caruso, the U.S. agency's administrator.

In Paris, analysts at IEA also fret that a lack of investment in many OPEC countries, combined with a diminished incentive to ramp up output, casts serious doubt over how much the cartel will expand its production in the future. The big OPEC producers have been raking in record profits, creating a disincentive in many countries to sink more billions into increased oil production.

Meanwhile, politics and other forces are delaying projects that could bring more oil on-stream. Continued fighting in Iraq has stymied efforts to revive aging fields, while international sanctions on Iran have kept investments there from moving forward. Rebel attacks in Nigeria and political turmoil in Venezuela have cut into both countries' output. Big non-OPEC producers such as Mexico and Russia, which have either barred or sidelined international operators, are seeing production slump. The U.S., with a legal moratorium barring exploration in 85% of its offshore waters, is struggling to keep its output steady.

The IEA study will try to answer one question that bedevils those trying to forecast future prices and the supply-demand balance: How rapidly are the world's top fields declining? The rates at which their production dwindles over time are a much-debated barometer of the health of the world's oil patch.

Depletion Rate

A study released earlier this year by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm and unit of IHS, concluded that the depletion rate of the world's 811 biggest fields is around 4.5% a year. At that rate, oil companies have to make huge investments just to keep overall production steady. Others say the depletion rate could be higher.

"We are of the opinion that the public isn't aware of the role of the decline rate of existing fields in the energy supply balance, and that this rate will accelerate in the future," says the IEA's Mr. Birol.

Some analysts, however, contend that scarcity isn't the issue -- only access to reserves and investment in tapping them. "We know there is plenty of oil and gas resource in the world," says Pete Stark, vice president for industry relations at IHS. He says the difficulties of supply aren't buried in oil fields, but are "above ground."

Mr. Morse at Lehman Brothers notes that there are plenty of questions about supply yet to be answered. "However confident the IEA may be about the data it has, they know nothing about the resources we've yet to discover in the deep waters or in the arctic," he says.

från THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

10:00U.S. April existing-home inventory rises 10.5%
10:00U.S. April existing-home median price down 8% in past year
10:00U.S. April single-family homes for sale highest in 23 years
10:00U.S. April existing-home sales stronger than 4.83M expected
10:00U.S. April existing-home sales fall 1% to 4.89M pace

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Försäljningen av befintliga
bostäder i USA sjönk med 1,0 procent i april, till en
beräknad årstakt på 4,89 miljoner enheter.

Analytiker hade räknat med att försäljningen skulle
ha sjunkit 1,6 procent, till en årstakt på 4,85 miljoner,
enligt Bloomberg News prognosgenomsnitt.

Medianpriset sjönk 8,0 procent i april till 202.300
dollar, jämfört med motsvarande månad föregående år.

Försäljningstakten i mars uppgick till oreviderade
4,93 miljoner enheter

Unsold houses rise to 23-year high in April

The inventory of unsold homes jumped 10.5% to 4.55 million, an "uncomfortably high" level, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate trade group.

Inventories represented an 11.2 month supply at the April sales pace, the highest since the records began in 1999.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

1)

Roubini still pessimistic over economy  

2)

Roubini still pessimistic over economy

3)

Roubini still pessimistic over economy

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Fed Should Increase Rates If Inflation Accelerates, Fisher Says

``If inflationary developments and, more important, inflation expectations continue to worsen, I would expect a change of course in monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, even in the face of an anemic'' economy, Fisher said yesterday in a speech in San Francisco. 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 
Dallas Fed's Fisher warns of quick 'change of course' if inflation gets worse

All of the Fed speakers have emphasized their particular concern about inflation expectations and the risk that if they begin to rise, they will set off a wage price spiral that could require drastic action by the Fed to stop.

'No central banker can countenance it,' Fisher said, 'not least the men and women of the Federal Reserve.'

The financial markets now, are paying the price for 'complacency and recklessness' Fisher said. 'Few scanned the horizon for trouble brewing as we proceeded along a path of unparalleled prosperity fuelled by an unsustainable housing bubble and unbridled credit markets.' 

...

Most of Fisher's speech was devoted to a warning considerably more dire than his inflation fears. 'I see a frightful storm brewing in the form of untethered government debt,' he said. 

se bild

Huge-sand-storm-approaching-neighborhood.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Oil Shock Debate: Recession, Inflation or Both?

...

Jag har redan nämnt om att oil future moved into cantango och jag märkte att ingen reagerade... hoppas jag har fel...

Tar upp den och man bör följa denna fråga mycket nograbt närmaste tiden.

 A Clue from Contango

Normally, the oil futures curve is in "backwardation," which means that futures prices for distant delivery dates trade below the current spot price for oil. Occasionally though, longer-term futures trade well above spot prices, even adjusted for interest rates and cost of carry. Often a contango emerges during a period when the spot price of crude is declining - usually with a resulting acceleration in the decline (as we observed several times during the 1990's). In recent days, we've observed a contango develop between spot crude and futures expiring in 2010 and beyond, while the spreads between near-term futures have narrowed sharply and may also move into contango soon. This is worth monitoring. It is a sign that traders have accepted the bullish case so thoroughly that they have become frantic to bid up oil for delivery well into the future.

Contango creates immediate incentives to buy oil for near delivery and store it in inventory. Producers don't particularly like markets in contango, because that tendency to build inventories reduces their ability to control prices through their own actions.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Peak oil eller inte,,, bäst att  man tänker på det värsta än att förneka det värsta... för då kommer att bli väldigt sent att agera.

NOVA - Peakoil Interview ASPO NL president Koppelaar

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) De amerikanska inköpschefernas
index noterades till 49,6 i maj, upp från 48,6 månaden före.

Analytiker hade spått att index skulle sjunka till
48,5 under månaden, enligt Bloomberg News prognosgenomsnitt.

Prisindex steg till 87,0 jämfört med 84,5 månaden
före. Analytikerna hade väntat sig att prisindex skulle uppgå
till 82,0.

Index över sysselsättningen steg till 45,5 från 45,4.
Index över nya order steg till 49,7 från 46,5.
Produktionsindex steg till 51,2 från 49,1.

Orderboksindex sjönk till 46,0 från 51,5.

Lagerindex sjönk till 48,0 från 48,1.

"Tillverkningsindustrin lyckades inte växa i maj då
PMI föll under 50 procent för fjärde månaden i följd...
Produktionsindex var en ljuspunkt eftersom det rörde sig över
50 procent efter två månader med nedgång. Tillverkarna finner
sig själva fångade mellan stigande kostnader och minskad
efterfrågan i många industrier", sade Norbert Ore, ordförande
för ISM:s undersökningskommitté.

Han konstaterade att exporten var fortsatt stark med
stöd av den svaga dollarn, utan den svaga dollarn skulle
läget inom tillverkningsindustrin vara "mycket mer negativt".

Indexen beräknas av the Institute for Supply
Management och speglar planerna hos en lång rad inköpschefer
inom tillverkningsindustrin under den senaste månaden.

Grovt kan sägas att värden under 50 tyder på
avmattning och över 50 på ekonomisk tillväxt./PD-JBA

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 #65

JULY FIREWORKS: INFLATION RATE WILL REFLECT GAS COSTS

Next month's CPI could be friendly to Wall Street. Seasonal adjustments will take out 3.4 percent of the gasoline increase.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

General Motors May U.S. sales drop 27.5%

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

Remarks on the economic outlook
At the International Monetary Conference, Barcelona, Spain (via satellite)
June 3, 2008

The challenges that our economy has faced over the past year or so have generated some downward pressures on the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which have contributed to the unwelcome rise in import prices and consumer price inflation. We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer-term inflation expectations 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Bernanke  och inflationen ...

marknaden reagerar med att sälja.

Bernanke Says Inflation `Significantly Higher' Than Fed Wants

``Maintaining confidence in the Fed's commitment to price stability remains a top priority,'' Bernanke said. ``We see little indication today of the beginnings of a 1970s-style wage- price spiral.''

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Olja steg kraftigt beror också på detta...

Israeli minister says alternatives to attack on Iran running out 

Jag själv tror inte att Israel kommer att göra nåt.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Video

Poole Says He Would Prepare Markets for Rate Increases

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Financial Econometrics, Financial Innovation, and Financial Stability
Presented by Charles I. Plosser,
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Fortunately, central banks do not have to act as a lender of last resort very often. However, recent events suggest to me that we should review very carefully this responsibility in light of the global developments and advances in the nature of our financial markets. How do we define an institution that is systemically important and therefore an appropriate candidate for lender-of-last-resort loans from the central bank? What do we need to know about those institutions and their balance sheets in such circumstances? Do we need to know only the value of the collateral they post or something more? These are difficult questions, and I do not pretend to know the answers. 

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Economic Forecasting Survey: maj 2008

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

``The inflationary impulses that we have are beginning to dampen our economic activity,'' Fisher said. ``Nobody at the Fed wants to countenance inflation.'' 

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Swedish central bank Monday scrapped its focus on underlying inflation, in a suprise move aimed at improving clarity in the aftermath of a housing market boom.

Sweden?s central bank aims to have the country?s consumer price index rise "around 2%" per year. But in the past, it looked closely at an index of Sweden?s underlying inflation rate, called CPIX, as a better indicator of where inflation in Sweden is headed. That made the CPIX index, which excludes mortgage interest expenditure and the effects of indirect taxes and subsidies from the headline consumer index, a closely monitored figure for watchers of the Swedish market.

Riksbank Deputy Governor Barbro Wickman-Parak said Monday in a speech that the Riksbank no longer feels CPIX offers a good sign of where Sweden?s CPI will go, and that it will no longer focus the indicator when setting policy. "The Riksbank has previously assumed that the CPI and the CPIX will converge in the long-term," said Wickman-Parak in a speech Monday. "We no longer believe that this will be the case," she said, adding that the opinion change regarding the CPIX and CPI relationship "is mainly because the sharp rise in house prices in recent years will affect mortgage interest expenditure for a long time to come."

Monday?s focus shift indicates a continued move away from central-banker focus on core inflation indicators, which exclude food and energy price movements. Some theorize that central banks shouldn?t focus on factors that they can?t control, such as global commodity price fluctuations. However, others argue that consumers have to deal with those commodity price changes, such as the current strong rise in global food and energy prices, and the movements bleed into household?s inflation expectations. - Joel Sherwood 

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Fed-chefen Ben Bernanke sade i ett tal efter
stängningen i New York att det ekonomiska läget har
förbättrats sedan en månad tillbaka, och risken för en
"ordentlig nedgång" i den amerikanska ekonomin har minskat.
Men han lade samtidigt till att centralbanken "starkt kommer
att motverka en erosion av de långsiktiga
inflationsförväntningarna" och det har pressat ned terminerna
för USA-indexen i den tidiga handeln.

Bernanke Says Fed to `Strongly Resist' Price Expectations Surge

Central bankers ``will strongly resist an erosion of longer- term inflation expectations,'' Bernanke said yesterday at the Boston Fed's annual economic conference in Chatham, Massachusetts. Any public anticipation of accelerating price gains ``would be destabilizing for growth,'' he said.

#0

Nu börjar Bernanke lyssna... 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Amerikanska marknadsräntor
fortsatte upp på tisdagskvällen, för andra dagen i följd, då
allt fler på marknaden började räkna med att räntehöjningar
är på väg och dessutom mycket tidigare än väntat.

Tvåårsräntan, som är mest känslig för förändringar i
penningpolitiken, steg mest. Handlare som talat med tidningen
Wall Street Journal var förbryllade över den kraftiga
ränteuppgången, med nästan en halv procentenhet hittills
under veckan.

"Jag har svårt att förklara en tvåårsränta på 2,90
procent, men marknaden prisar in (ränte-)höjningar", sade
Scott Gewirtz, chef för räntehandeln vid Lehman Brothers i
New York, till tidningen.

Även räntor med längre löptider steg, en effekt av
oro för att ökad inflation kommer att gröpa ur värdet på
tillgångarna.

Fed funds-terminerna gick under tisdagen från att
till 28 procent prisa in en höjning med 25 punkter under det
kommande kvartalet, till att vara helt säker på en höjning.

Scott Gewirtz sade att det är en "verklig chock" att
centralbanksretoriken svängt så snabbt från tillväxt till
inflation.

I onsdagens asiatiska handel var ränterörelserna små
och tidigt på onsdagsmorgonen noterades den amerikanska
tvåårsräntan till 2,93 procent, upp 8 punkter från tisdagens
svenska stängning, medan tioåringen stigit 6 punkter till
4,11 procent.

I kväll, svensk tid, presenterar Federal Reserve sin
regionala konjunkturrapport "Beige Book".

Japanska räntor steg svagt på onsdagen, vilket
handlare hänvisade till uppgången i USA-räntorna på grund av
den tilltagande oron för att Fed ska höja styrräntorna senare
i år.

Bank of Japan, däremot, väntas dock inte höja sina
styrräntor eftersom inflationsoron inte har nått samma nivå
som i USA och euroområdet.

Investerare väntas noga lystra till BOJ-chefen
Masaaki Shirakawas kommentarer på fredag, efter bankens
tvådagarsmöte.

Däremot uppgavs den japanska räntemarknaden ha
reagerat lugnt på uppgifterna att BNP-tillväxten för första
kvartalet reviderats upp till 1,0 procent, från preliminära
0,9 procent. Bakom upprevideringen låg främst en uppgång i
företagens kapitalinvesteringar.

Många ekonomer tror att tillväxten kommande kvartal
kan komma in lägre och kanske till och med visa en nedgång
under innevarande kvartal på grund av avmattningen i den
globala ekonomin och höga råvarupriser.

På valutamarknaden var dollarn stabil mot andra
storvalutor i onsdagens asiatiska handel, och konsoliderades
efter att ha stärkts på hökaktiga kommentarer från Fed-
företrädare dagen före. Dessutom fortsatte USA:s
finansminister Henry Paulson att "prata upp" dollarn inför
helgens G8-möte i Osaka. Han sade att amerikanska ekonomiska
fundamenta "är fördelaktiga i jämförelse med andra stora
industriländer" och höll fast vid sina tidigare kommentarer
om att interventioner är en möjlighet.

Tidigt på morgonen handlades dollarn strax under 1:55-
strecket, medan yenen låg en bit över 107-nivån.

Kronan har samtidigt försvagats cirka 3 öre mot
dollarn och 2 öre mot euron, jämfört med noteringarna på
tisdagseftermiddagen.

På onsdagens agenda finns också fransk och spansk
KPI, brittisk arbetslöshet och bytesbalans från euroområdet.

Här hemma offentliggör SCB aktivitetsindex för april
Svenskt Näringsliv publicerar en konjunkturrapport och Nordea
sin Baltic Rim Outlook.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Det råder ingen tvekan om att
inflationsförväntningar står i fokus för världens
centralbanker för närvarande. Från flera håll betonas att
inflationsförväntningarna måste vara förankrade, men man är
inte lika utförliga om varför det är så väldigt viktigt.

En vanlig synpunkt är visserligen att höga
inflationsförväntningar riskerar att bli självuppfyllande,
men vad vet man egentligen om vad som driver
inflationsförväntningarna och vilka effekter de kan få? Inte
tillräckligt mycket enligt Fedchefen Ben Bernanke.

Mycket uppmärksamhet har riktats mot Fedchefens tal
vid en ekonomikonferens vid Federal Reserve i Boston natten
till tisdagen. Där fastslog han att Fed med kraft kommer att
motverka en försämring i de långsiktiga
inflationsförväntningarna - om dessa "tappar förtöjningarna"
skulle det vara "destabiliserande för tillväxt såväl som för
inflation".

Men Ben Bernanke fastslog också: "Det är mycket vi
inte förstår om inflationsförväntningarna, vad avgör dem och
vilka implikationer får de".

För det första vill Ben Bernanke bättre förstå vilka
faktorer som påverkar allmänhetens inflationsförväntningar.
Inflationsförväntningarna är nu visserligen väsentligt bättre
förankrade än de var för omkring 20 år sedan, men de är inte
perfekt förankrade.

"Det skulle vara mycket användbart för centralbanker
att veta mer om hur inflationsförväntningarna påverkas av
penningpolitiska åtgärder, penningpolitisk kommunikation och
andra ekonomiska skeenden - som oljeprischocker", sade Ben
Bernanke.

Den andra frågan gäller genom vilka kanaler
inflationsförväntningar påverkar den faktiska inflationen.

"Går den primära länken från inflationsförväntningar
till löneförhandlingarna, eller är andra kanaler viktiga?",
frågade sig Fedchefen.

Han konstaterade att en studie om företagens
prissättningsbeteende, som bland annat förre Fedledamoten
Alan Blinder står bakom, visade några förbryllande resultat.
Endast en liten andel av de företag som deltog i
undersökningen svarade att förväntningarna om inflationen
påverkade deras prissättningsbeslut över huvud taget.

"Hur sammanför vi dessa resultat med vårt starka
antagande om att förväntningarna är av central vikt för att
förklara inflationen? Kanske påverkar förväntningarna den
faktiska inflationen via någon kanal som är relativt
indirekt", sade Ben Bernanke.

Ytterligare frågor handlar om hur en centralbank bäst
kan följa allmänhetens inflationsförväntningar. Ben Bernanke
konstaterade att det finns ett flertal enkätundersökningar i
ämnet som genomförs bland hushåll, därtill finns prognoser
från professionella ekonomer och information som kan räknas
fram i marknaden för inflationsskyddade värdepapper. Men
dessvärre finns endast mycket begränsad information
tillgänglig om inflationsförväntningarna bland dem som
verkligen sätter priserna, företagen.

"Vilka av dessa gruppers förväntningar är viktigast
för inflationsdynamiken, och hur kan centralbanker bäst få
fram relevant information från de olika tillgängliga måtten?"
undrade Ben Bernanke./PD

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

India Raises Interest Rate to 8% to Rein in Inflation 

The Reserve Bank of India increased the repurchase rate to 8 percent from 7.75 percent from today, according to a statement in Mumbai. The move came seven weeks before the bank's scheduled monetary policy meeting on July 29.

Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy joins central bankers in Brazil, China and Russia, the so-called BRIC nations, in raising borrowing costs. The urgency signals Reddy's concerns after India raised fuel prices at the sharpest pace in at least six years.

``It would have been impossible for the central bank to ignore that,'' said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore. ``Particularly with inflation being so sensitive a subject politically in India.''

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Will Israel Attack Iran?s Nuclear Facilities Before the End of the Bush Administration? Joschka Fischer Argues Yes

Now, it is not certain - as argued by Fischer - that Israel will strike that early; this is just a guess and a prediction by one observer even if many others think likewise. But if such action were to be taken by Israel the consequences outlined above would be the clear outcome: a major global recession, wars throughout the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, Israel, etc.) and a major increase in geopolitical instability.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#116 Recession pga krig? Hur gick börsen efter att WW2 startade? Irak 2003? Märklig slutsat... visst världsundergång kan man väl snacka om mellanöstern går upp i rök men krigsmaskineri leder generellt till ökad ekonomisk-industriell aktivitet. 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#117 Nej, tvärtom. Krig pga recession! 

Ju större nedgång desto större krig. Krig kommer i slutet av (eller efter) stora nedgångar. WWI och WWII kom i slutet av en 200-årig björnmarknad som i själva verket var en mastodontisk kraftsamling/produktivitetsutveckling (industriella revolutionen) som vi fortfarande lever gott på.

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

djia 1940-1949

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

HBOS Sinks to Low, Putting Morgan Stanley, Dresdner in a Jam

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, fell to a record low in London trading, meaning underwriters of its 4 billion-pound ($7.9 billion) rights offering may be forced to buy stock at a loss.

Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Kleinwort Group Ltd. agreed in April to guarantee the sale of 1.5 billion shares at 275 pence apiece. Edinburgh-based HBOS dropped 12 percent yesterday to 258 pence, putting the gap between the market and offering price at 255 million pounds. Morgan Stanley, Dresdner and a group of unidentified sub-underwriters agreed to assume risks for any shares that aren't sold to investors when trading begins July 21.

...

The U.K.'s Financial Services Authority, the industry regulator, said it is monitoring HBOS.

``Hypothetically, if a bank's share price dips below its rights issue price, the FSA officially doesn't have to do anything,'' said FSA spokeswoman Teresa La Thangue. ``It's completely up to the underwriter. Unofficially, we monitor the situation very closely.''

Share declines at RBS, Bradford & Bingley and HBOS may indicate that rights offerings aren't a good way for banks to raise new capital, said Roger Lawson, spokesman for the U.K. Shareholders' Association.

``The massive discount offered on these rights issues is a problem,'' he said. ``It's a psychological negative signal suggesting all is not well with the business.''

Mvh, /Leif

Fed's Plosser pushes for quick rate hikes

He said the Fed made a serious mistake in the 1970s when it let a relative price shock in oil translate into higher inflation.
"We have to be careful that in our accommodative policies and our efforts to support our economy, we don't make the mistake of creating inflation pressures," he said.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

AIG's Bernard Connolly: "Crisis of Capitalism is Upon Us"

We have lost count of how many notes we have, in the past few years, written with some reference to a crisis of capitalism. Tragically, that crisis is now upon us, and the pace of unravelling seems to be accelerating. The next highly foreseeable development is that there will be a worldwide crimping of central bank independence as the political process increasingly sees -- rightly or wrongly, but in our view largely rightly -- central banks as having fouled up.

The yob culture of Britain?s streets seems to have spread to several of the central banks. Those banks are behaving like gangs of brutish, feral fifteen-year-olds who egg each other on, claiming "respect", by knocking down elderly passers-by and kicking the life out of them. So far, governments have reacted...by saying that we have to let these young people express themselves. But the tide may be turning...

The ultimate fons et origo of the present mess is, arguably, the very existence of central banks, for that existence is a token of a decision taken by society, in virtually all countries, that financial risk must be at least to some extent socialised and that central banks are necessary to prevent or alleviate financial crises. Moral hazard is thus inherent in all, or virtually all, our societies. But the proximate reason for the mess, ironically enough, is that central banks have reinterpreted their mission, largely perversely, and have fallen prey to the totemism of inflation targeting. That totemism is essentially imposing on the world a version of Bundesbank philosophy that is proving highly malignant in the moral-hazard-ridden but innovative and, in most circumstances, beneficial financial system we actually have...

One implication worth stressing from the very outset is that while Trichet told us all last week that he will, if he is allowed to get away with it, impose 1930s-like conditions in the euro-area cads, the Fed has, in its recent pronouncements, come close to saying that it is prepared to impose some aspects of 1930s conditions -- and not least a stock market crash -- on the US. And while Trichet can argue that he is only doing what the politicians have, through the treaty, told him to do, however stupid or destructive that may be, the Fed will have only itself to blame.... In our note of a month ago, "The Fed: Damned If It Does and Damned If It Doesn't?", we argued that while the vicious circle posited by Fisher might well exist, another, and more dangerous, vicious circle would be created if the Fed were to give the impression of being constrained by the dollar...

But who has won the argument in and about the ECB? Our understanding is that Trichet sprang his announcement on surprised ECB Council members at the real Council meeting -- the dinner on the Wednesday evening preceding the formal meeting2. We further understand that even those who welcomed Trichet's announcement -- such as Weber -- were taken aback by it (though not as taken aback as banks' exotic rate structures desks, which were ripped up and torn into shreds by the sudden reversal of the shape of the euro curve; one presumes that Trichet did not anticipate the wild movements in the curve, for those movements were very unwelcome from the point view of a global financial system which in some ways looks even more vulnerable than before the Bear Stearns rescue). Many others were appalled by it. Significantly, it seems the Irish said (as we suggested last Friday) they could accept Trichet's decision, but not this month -- in other words, not until after today's referendum.

Implicitly, what Trichet did at his press conference was something along the lines of, "Forget anything you thought you knew about the euro: it is from now on going to be a hard, Germanic currency. The ECB is the Bundesbank and the euro is the DEM. The value of the euro and the level of interest rates will be no more affected by the fact that countries such a Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Italy are members of the euro zone than were the dollar and US rates affected by the fact that at various times countries such as Nicaragua were dollarised." If Trichet were allowed to get away with that, the status of the euro would be radically transformed. Even more important, Trichet was in effect announcing a coup d?état in EMU. The question of whether the euro would be hard or soft, and whether the ECB would respond to conditions in the area as a whole, to conditions in weak countries or to conditions only in Germany - at bottom, the question of whether France or Germany would predominate in EMU - was the subject of many years of detailed - and, it has to be said, inconclusive - political discussion and negotiation, though admittedly not politically accountable discussion and negotiation. Now Trichet, a jumped-up civil servant, though admittedly the high priest of the caste of civil servants, or at least of énarques, appears to be saying, "I don?t care about all that: This question is not being decided by my personal diktat, and my decision is in favour of Germany."

Will Trichet be allowed to get away with it? Does he want to get away with it (recall our suggestion made last Friday that Trichet, who is known to have been worrying about divergence within the euro area for the past couple of years, may in effect have decided to force the politicians to make the decisions about the future of EMU before an uncontrollable economic and financial crisis develops, knowing as he must that the ECB cannot resolve the problems and contradictions now so clearly exposed within it). The stakes are now very high indeed. Lagarde's implication that the G8 would force Trichet to change his mind represents a very considerable upping of the ante. If the ECB goes ahead and hikes, Lagarde (and Sarkozy) will look foolish. If that were to happen, the rumours that have been swirling for some months, to the effect that Sarkozy might threaten Merkel that France could withdraw from monetary union, might begin to have some substance. But if Trichet backs down, he will have made a political -- though entirely unaccountable -- forum, the G8, the arbiter of ECB policy. ECB independence will be gone. Thus the G8 is shaping up to be potentially as climactic as the famous Bath Ecofin meeting of September 1992. Then, the pressures on Schlesinger, and his reaction to them, precipitated the ERM crisis.

What might the line-up at the G8 be? The belief in the market that the US government and the Fed were disconcerted and discommoded by Trichet's announcement seems credible. For what that announcement did, coming immediately after Bernanke's comments on the dollar (to which we shall return in Part 2 of this note), was potentially to re-create the conditions of the summer and early autumn of 1987. Then, the market perception that the Fed would be obliged by the Louvre Agreement to support the dollar, by following Bundesbank rate moves, was very definitely a factor ccontributing to
the Wall Street Crash of October of that year (true, the US stock market had gone parabolic in the months preceding the 1987 crash and was thus very vulnerable; but the factors of vulnerability now, though different from those of 1987, are very considerable; more obviously, the parabolic variable recently has been the oil price -- a sharp fall in that price would reduce equity vulnerability, but, as noted earlier, we defer substantive discussion of the oil/inflation/dollar/rates/stocks nexus to Part 2).

We suspect that the US, or at least the US government side, will want to make it clear to Trichet (or perhaps in reality to Weber) that it will not look kindly on any attempt by the ECB,.... to push up not just euro rates but dollar rates.

Equally clearly, the Italians will side with the French. So, too, will the British government, which has troubles of its own with the turbulent monetary priest of Threadneedle Street. The Canadian government, too, will not wish to endorse an ECB role as global rate-setter. The Japanese -- including, we suspect, the BoJ - will have been aghast at what one can consider the collective loutishness of some of the other major central banks. So Trichet and the Germans may well be isolated.

That said, we cannot predict the G8 outcome with any confidence whatsoever. But Lagarde has ensured that its outcome -- whichever way it goes - could be dramatic. The politicians will strike back against the central banks, whether at Osaka or later. The central banks (again with the exception of the BoJ, for reasons we hope to develop in a subsequent note) have, in putting the entire global economic and financial system at risk in pursuit of "respect", over-reached themselves.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#122

Morgan Stanley warns of 'catastrophic event' as ECB fights Federal Reserve

 The clash between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve over monetary strategy is causing serious strains in the global financial system and could lead to a replay of Europe's exchange rate crisis in the 1990s, a team of bankers has warned.

Morgan Stanley said the biggest risk lies in the arc of countries from the Baltics to the Black Sea where credit growth has been roaring at 40pc to 50pc a year. Current account deficits have reached 23pc of GDP in Latvia, and 22pc in Bulgaria. In Hungary and Romania, over 55pc of household debt is in euros or Swiss francs

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Stage Two of the Mortgage Collapse: $500 Billion in Pay Option ARMs Meet the Piper in 2008 with 60 Percent Being in California.

The next stage of the mortgage debacle is only starting to rear its ugly head and all early signs tell us that this is going to be even worse than the subprime mortgage collapse. We need to remember that the subprime mortgage debacle was only one facet of a global debt boom that has taken a stranglehold over the industrialized world. The United Kingdom is now starting to realize that even they are going to face a housing meltdown. Yet there is still a perception out there from pundits and those in the media that this housing meltdown was caused purely by subprime loans, which could not be anything further from the truth.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Att följa Greenspans spår med att sänka räntan har visat sig vara en katastrof för usa? och det kommer inte att bli bättre nu

Bernanke bör börja med att höja räntan? Greenspan var som Gud för finans världen? Inte nu längre?

Bernanke May Regret Rate Cuts as Inflation Rises, Lawson Says

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Former U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be ``regretting'' the fastest pace of U.S. interest-rate cuts since 1984 as global inflation accelerates.

...

``The Bank of England has been very cautious and careful and it has been much closer to the views of the European Central Bank,'' Lawson, 76, who was finance minister from 1983 to 1989 under former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, said in a telephone interview. ``It has not gone conspicuously the way of the Fed, where I suspect that Mr. Bernanke's now regretting it.''

...

The slowdown in the U.K. is going to last ``longer than most people expect,'' while remaining ``shallow,'' Lawson said. The economy, the second-largest in Europe, grew 0.4 percent in the first quarter, its weakest pace since 2005, as higher credit costs hurt construction and business services slowed, according to the Office for National Statistics.

``This is the hangover after the binge,'' Lawson said. ``It's going to be very, very difficult for the next two to three years for the global economy.''

Jag är rädd att det lite sent för Fed att agera men jag hoppas att jag har fel...

Jag därför utgår från att Fed inte kommer att lyckas istället för att bygga förhoppningar på att Fed kommer att lyckas...

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

HIGH COST OF CARGO SHIPPING COULD "REVERSE GLOBALISATION," REPORT SAYS

"In a world of triple-digit oil prices, soaring transport costs, not tariff barriers, pose the greatest challenge to trade," argue the study's authors, Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Incredible Shrinking Airlines

Some airlines have publicly trumpeted their cutbacks, all the better to underscore their parlous finances. But not everything is announced. Delta Air Lines, for example, is making sizable schedule reductions at its Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, and New York hubs. The carrier has been mum on details, however, because it wants to merge with Northwest Airlines and promised various government agencies that the combination wouldn't affect capacity. The lesson: Assume nothing. The flight you thought was there yesterday may not be on the schedule tomorrow. 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson, founder of hedge fund Paulson & Co., said global writedowns and losses from the credit crisis may reach $1.3 trillion, exceeding the International Monetary Fund's $945 billion estimate.

``We're only about a third of the way through the writedowns,'' Paulson said, speaking at a hedge fund conference in Monaco today. ``There are a lot of problems out there and it will continue to be felt through the year. We don't see any signs of stabilizing.''

Paulson, 52, whose company Paulson & Co. manages about $33 billion, returned 12 percent in his Advantage Plus Fund through May, according to investors. Last year, Paulson's Credit Opportunities Fund climbed almost sixfold. He has been betting on an increase in corporate defaults and a slowdown in the U.S. economy as home prices and consumer-spending to decline.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Mortgage arrears rise to record high

Australia's mortgage arrears rate rose to a record in March as borrowers struggled to make repayments because of rising inflation and higher interest rates, according to Standard & Poor's.

...

About 1.1 million Australians are paying more than 30% of their income in rent or home-loan costs, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said in a speech on March 3.

 MVH SPX970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Merrill calls capitulation on bank stocks, slashes outlooks

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Analysts at Merrill Lynch on Friday said investors appear to be capitulating with regards to banks stocks, frustrated into selling them down to levels below their real values as the credit crisis continues to wreck balance sheets. The analysts also slashed their earnings outlooks for several large regional banks and said they will continue boost loss reserves and cut dividends. Specifically, the analysts said they expect dividend cuts at Bank of America. Regions Financial. SunTrust and Wachovia Corp  

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#116

U.S. Says Exercise by Israel Seemed Directed at Iran

Any Israeli attack against Iran?s nuclear facilities would confront a number of challenges. Many American experts say they believe that such an attack could delay but not eliminate Iran?s nuclear program. Much of the program?s infrastructure is buried under earth and concrete and installed in long tunnels or hallways, making precise targeting difficult. There is also concern that not all of the facilities have been detected. To inflict maximum damage, multiple attacks might be necessary, which many analysts say is beyond Israel?s ability at this time.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Goldman Reverses Its `Clearly Wrong' Call on U.S. Financials

``We boosted our consumer discretionary and financials weights in May on the belief the sectors would benefit from bank recapitalization and fiscal stimulus,'' New York-based analyst David J. Kostin wrote in a note to clients today. ``Our thesis was clearly wrong in hindsight.''

Mer senare

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Price Of Food: 2007 - 2008

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#133 Matpriser är jäkligt volatila saker. Upp som en sol, ned som en slanggurka är väl ett begrepp som i detta fall ter sig ganska tillämpbart.

Har du statistik över den inflationsjusterade relativa prisutvecklingen på mat de senaste, säg 30-åren? Något säger mig att detta vi ser nu är en blipp... inget jag sett klara siffror på dock. Ännu.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Jag har faktiskt  frågat en vän om dem så jag hoppas att jag får dem innan min semester börjar.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#135 En bild från The Economist som visar 30-år. Dock lurar den ögat lite, iom att man bör beakta att matpriserna sjunkit i 30-år samtidigt som övriga priser generellt sett stigit. Så det intressanta vore ju relativ-baserade priser.

En sådan kan iofs vara hur stor del av inkomsten som går till mat/basmat. Där finns ju också ett samband där folk i fattiga länder spenderar en större andel på mat. Men ju rikare man blir ju mindre andel går till mat. Varför ju också vissa vill argumentera att CPI inflationen i Kina som är jättehög nu är överdriven av pga detta faktum.

Alltitd två sidor av ett mynt :) Men min känsla är att mat har blivit bara billigare o billigare, tills nu. Som jag ser som en paus. Återkommer när/om jag orkat gräva i arkiven efter vettig data att bekräfta eller slå hål på denna teori med. Har massor av data att tillgå, men inte alls lika mkt tid :( 

EDIT: Länkade t bilden också :)

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Donald Coxe senaste rapport...basic point för juli

Värt att läsa. Gör mig en tjänst vill inte att ni sprider denna rapport...

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Who?s on the Other Side of That Trade, Anyway?

Posted by MarketBeat Staff

Donna Kardos reports:

A growing proportion of U.S. firms are seeing credit-default-swap counterparty risk as a serious threat to global markets, and think another major financial company will go under due amid the global-markets crisis, according to a study by research firm Greenwich Associates.

The study?s results, which say the proportion seeing CDS counterparty risk as a serious threat is approaching 85%, highlight the perceived concern of another financial firm going down. Only 27% of the institutions surveyed think there won?t be another casualty along the lines of Bear Stearns, Greenwich consultant Frank Feenstra said in a statement.

The research firm said of the 146 U.S. and European banks, hedge funds and investors it surveyed, most "believe another major financial-services firm will fail as a result of the ongoing crisis in global markets ? and they expect it to happen sooner rather than later."

Almost 60% of the respondents expect another big financial firm will collapse within the next six months, while another 15% see it happening in six to 12 months.

"If you are looking for a silver lining in these findings, it seems that most institutions think we are currently in the most dangerous period for global financial-services firms," Feenstra said. "Perhaps if the markets can make it through the next six months, the level of pessimism may begin to subside."

Greenwich said nearly 80% of the firms in the study say their banks have tightened margin or collateral requirements since the outbreak of the global credit crunch. More than a quarter of those companies said the new requirements have caused them to reduce their trading activity.

Concerns about counterparty risk have caused institutions to cut back on their CDS use. Among fixed-income survey participants that employ such swaps, 62% said higher counterparty risk has caused them to limit their use.

Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of the firms in the survey said they try to limit their concentration of exposure to a single counterparty, while three-quarters said the establishment of a centralized clearing entity would be effective in mitigating credit-default swap counterparty risk.

In Europe, institutions are "at least slightly more sanguine," Greenwich said compared with U.S. firms surveyed. It said just more than 55% of the European companies surveyed see CDS counterparty risk as a significant danger.

 The Wall Street Journal

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

David Altig är tillbaka

Altig is now Senior Vice President and Director of Desearch at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.


Altig describes the new role of Macroblog as follows:

"I originally launched macroblog in 2004 as an independent blog, but it will now be run through the Atlanta Fed on our Web site. Macroblog will feature commentary by me as well as other members of the Bank?s research department. The purpose of the blog is to help inform readers with commentary and observations on a variety of current economic topics, including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, financial issues, and Southeast regional trends. I do need to emphasize that the views expressed in macroblog will not necessarily be those of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve System - feel free to quote me on that."

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet