Oljepriset 2008

Jag valde $140
Når den 150 så innebär det ju att den har nått 140 ;) 

/ slapp hänger längst

#1 Ja, det är väl klart att 140 har nåtts om oljan når 150? Tror man att 150 nås så väljer man det, tror man att 140 nås men inte riktigt 150 väljer man 140. Eller tolkar jag dig fel? 

#2 Slakis påvisar en liten brist i utformandet av frågan.

Mvh Corpsee

#3 Jo, men förklara gärna bristen för jag förstår inte. 

Edit: Man väljer ju bara ett alternativ. Tror man oljan når 140 väljer man det, tror man över 150 väljer man det etc.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#1 haha

Har sett en film som heter "Oil no more".

Ett oljebolag erkände att dom överdrivit reserverna våldsamt och ungefär när oljan passerade 150 USD så stängde man all handel för all framtid. Så därför vågade jag inte välja högre än 150 ;-)

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

#6

Han skojade till det lite eftersom då har man alltid rätt. 

Mvh Corpsee

Vilken nivå på uppsidan tror du kommer nås

Ett alternativ får man bara svara
Då tar man såklart det som är närmst. 

/ slapp hänger längst

George 

Mvh spear of destiny

#8

Ja. Det är uppenbart. Två veckor tog det att glömma den senaste smällen i råvaror. 

Mvh Corpsee

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Vilken högsta nivå tror DU kommer att nås under innevarande år?

Borde det ha stått för att inte få onödigt lång sträng ;-) 

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

#10 som om du inte hade tid att läsa långa inlägg. Dagdrivare där :) 

/ slapp hänger längst

#10 Ja, har förstått det nu. Hoppas det var några som förstod hur jag menade i alla fall.

#12

Det viktigaste är inte huruvida folk förstår utan om det är perfekt framställt. 

Mvh Corpsee

#13 Ja, jag lämnar över det till dig eller någon annan som säkert grejar det galant nästa gång.

#15

Detta kommer vara avgörande i uppsatsskrivande och dylikt. 

:)

Mvh Corpsee

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#12 evil.... den som vill förstå, förstår..... den som vill tjaffsa, tjaffsar ;) 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
mvh
S Borin

#16 finns nog en mellanting,kinda fuzzy logic 

evil, det är svårt att sia om priset för hela året, däremot kan man fråga på vilken nivå toppar vi i pågående uppsving. har även praktiskt betydelse

mvh

en hängiven läsare

don't be a turkey
NNT

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

gekko 

Utvecklingen efter analyspanik har ju visat sig förut 

Mvh Corpsee

undrar om kupongerna från 1979 finns kvar;) 

i framtiden? 

Kan det bli klassiska alla är bull....toppen nådd..:)  mvh

Toppen är knappast nådd:-) eller :-( 

Mvh swan

Many reasons cited for oil price boom: speculation, fundamentals, dollar weakness, fuel subsidies, inflation, low interest rates. All factors may have played a part at some time or another, with different factors dominating at different times. One of the current prime suspects for what's driving the 2008 oil spikes is speculation:

Masters: Index speculators are the primary cause of the recent price spikes in commodities
Herbst: Swaps loophole exempts investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch from reporting requirements and limits on trading positions. The loophole allows pension funds to enter into a swap agreement with an investment bank, which can then trade unlimited numbers of the contracts in futures markets
Weidner, CN: WTI crude oil futures traded on ICE in Europe exempt from regulatory action
Dale/Zyren (via US Senate): Noncommercial traders follow and exacerbate price trends but they don't set them
Coy: Actual costs incurred in producing the most expensive oil is only around $70-$80 a barrel, the rest of the current oil price represents market's risk premium plus speculation
Verleger: Oil price rise in H2 2007 driven not by speculation but by diversion of oil to US Strategic Petroleum Reserve 

don't be a turkey
NNT

IEA som ni bör kolla upp om ni är intresserade av oljepriset, "we see no shortage until 2030".

#25 De gick väl ut häromdan och sa att de behöver revidera sina prognoser? Skulle väl komma med någon större rapport i november, men hintade att deras prognoser för supply är alldeles för höga. 

(26)Stämmer,vissel vissel titta en fågel finns inga problem! 

Mvh swan

a software bug? 

don't be a turkey
NNT

"Oljepriset handlas fortsatt över 130 dollar på fredagsmorgonen. Och nu tror allt fler analytiker att priset på olja kan öka till 200 dollar." 

IEA KRYPER TILL KORSET OCH SÄNKER PROGNOS 2030!
MEN RÄCKER DET?

SvD 2008-05-23

"IEA tar ett steg i taget. Även prognosen om en oljeproduktion på
100 miljoner fat per dag 2030 är helt orea­listisk. Det kommer nog fler nedjusteringar, säger Kjell Aleklett, som leder forskningen på globala energisystem vid Uppsala universitet".

Oljeproduktion 2030

IEA (nuvarande prognos) 116 miljoner fat/dag.

IEA (ny prognos) 100 miljoner fat/dag

Uppsala universitets (Aleklett, Robelius) prognos 60 miljoner fat/dag

--------------------------------------

SvD

Trots att oljepriset under de senaste tre åren mer än fyrdubblats och
trots att alla oljeriggar som finns används för att leta efter mer olja, har
det inte hittats nya oljefält i den takten som behövs.

-Vi tror inte att folk känner till vilken roll den fallande produktionen
för existerande fält har för tillgången på energi. Det är dessutom en
utveckling som bara kommer att accelerera i framtiden,
säger Fatih Birol på IEA.

Han skulle egentligen presenterat prognosen först i november,
men väljer att gå ut med resultatet redan nu.

---------------------------------------------

SvD

-Oljeinvesteringarna som ­behöver göras kommer att bli mycket,
mycket högre än vad folk har trott. Det här är en farlig ­situation,
säger Fatih Birol, som är IEA:s chefsekonom, till tidningen.

-------------------------------------------

SvD

Enligt Wall Street Journal kommer IEA, som representerar 26 industriländer,
att justera ned den beräknade oljeproduktionen 2030 från 116 miljoner fat
olja per dag till 100 miljoner fat. Världens produktion av olja ligger idag på
87 miljoner fat per dag.

---------------------------------------

SvD

-Varje år minskar produktionen från de existerande, konventionella
oljefälten i världen med 3,5 procent. För att hålla produktionen på
den nuvarande nivån måste man därför hitta nya oljefält som kan
producera 2,5 miljoner fat olja varje år, säger Kjell Aleklett.

Mvh swan

http://www.alternet.org/environment/85841/

http://www.reason.com/news/show/125414.html

Det den sista artikeln "glömmer" är det här:

Print This Post
Vicious Circle: Middle East Affluence Drive Up M.E. Oil Use and Price etc.
from McClatchy:
GLOBAL ECONOMY
More demand for oil in Mideast hikes prices
Mideast oil producers increasingly consume their own oil to fuel their fast-growing economies, driving up oil prices.
Posted on Fri, Apr. 18, 2008
BY KEVIN G. HALL
khall
WASHINGTON -

Middle Eastern oil-producing nations are behind today?s record high oil prices, but not for the reason you might think. Taken together, oil-rich nations represent a bloc of fast-growing economies that are now sucking up new energy supplies almost as fast as they?re coming to market.

Together, the six nations that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are now consuming about as much oil as China, whose thirst for oil frequently gets the blame for tight global supplies.

These GCC countries ? Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates ? have grown at a 7 percent annual clip since 2002. They boast a per-citizen income ? $19,000 ? that is three times China?s. Demand for oil in the Middle East has risen by almost 6 percent annually since 2004.

Here?s what that means for Americans: The Bush administration has leaned on the Saudi Arabian monarchy to step up oil production, but much of the output will stay in the Persian Gulf region to power newly dynamic economies. That means global demand for oil will continue to strain supply. Oil prices are likely to stay high.

For the last three summers, Americans have paid more at the gas pump in part because of this spike in Middle Eastern demand for oil. These increasingly affluent nations have seen enormous summer spikes in demand for air conditioning. A full third of electricity generation in the region comes from oil-fired power plants.

STEEP SUBSIDIES

Because these countries produce oil, they often sell its byproducts at a subsidized discount. Oman sells its oil-fired electricity at a 40 percent discount.

Throughout the Persian Gulf states, consumers enjoy steep subsidies of more than $1.44 a gallon at the gas pump.

"Rising income plus cheaper fuel equals subsidized gasoline and more cars," said Adam Robinson, an energy analyst with investment bank Lehman Brothers. He provided a wide array of data on Middle East demand trends at an April 7 conference in Washington about the world energy outlook.

Another spike in oil demand is expected in the Middle East this summer, Robinson said. This spike is one reason why the U.S. Energy Information Administration last week projected record-high gasoline prices for American motorists throughout this summer ? even if we drive less, as expected.

MORE CONSUMPTION

Lehman Brothers forecasts global oil consumption will grow by 1.1 million barrels per day this year. China and the Middle East each will account for about one-third of the increase. The Middle East should see consumption grow by 350,000 barrels per day, Lehman projects.

Signs abound of the growing clout of Middle Eastern oil economies. An expansion in Dubai, part of the United Arab Emirates, will create the world?s largest airport, bigger than London?s Heathrow, by 2017. It?ll include a cargo hub three times larger than the cargo headquarters of FedEx in Memphis.

Also in the United Arab Emirates, competing projects each claim to be building the world?s largest aluminum smelter, fired by natural gas.

Saudi Arabia is investing more than $100 billion in petrochemical facilities that will allow it to move from today?s 4 percent of global production to 12 percent by 2010. The Saudi monarchy has been ramping up its oil-production capacity from about 9 million barrels a day in 2006 to at least 12 million barrels per day by the end of next year.

The National Bank of Kuwait projects that a staggering $1.75 trillion will be spent on regional development, industry and energy projects in the Persian Gulf states over the next six years.

Middle East oil exporters are increasingly recycling their petrodollars into their own economies. The value of the U.S. debt and securities held by Mideast oil-exporting nations stood at about $125 billion in June 2007, according to the Treasury Department. That?s just a bit more than the $121 billion in U.S. financial investments they held in June 2004, when the run-up in oil prices began. They used to invest their profits largely here. Now they?re keeping them home.

"It starts to create unbelievably really serious demand. And then every time you jump 1 million barrels per day of energy demand in the Middle East, your supply [for export] falls by 1 million barrels per day," said Matthew Simmons, an investment banker specializing in oil.

TIGHT BALANCE

The tight balance between global supply and demand has allowed financial markets to run up the price of oil ? now trading above $115 a barrel ? on concerns that an accident or international incident could trigger shortages.

If there?s a bright spot for U.S. motorists, it?s that the high oil prices have triggered a wave of new energy investment around the globe that eventually will increase supplies and should lower prices.

"I?ve never seen so much investment going into all parts of the energy spectrum ? from renewables and alternatives to conventional energy," said Daniel Yergin, an oil historian. "And I think we need a sustained high level of energy research and development to really build resilience. For the foreseeable future, we?re going to be a significant importer of energy."

Lehman?s Robinson expects that after this summer, oil prices may fall back as more supplies become available. He believes prices could fall by $30 a barrel, which could return gasoline to $2.50 a gallon or less.


www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/04/20/vicious-circle-middle-east-affluence-drive-up-me-oil-use-and-price-etc/#more-467

Tillsammans med förra inlägget blir det ganska intressant,för alla tycker jag!

Mvh

Last week, the average daily volume of crude oil contracts on the Nymex was almost eight times daily oil demand.  

don't be a turkey
NNT

läsvärt mauldin

don't be a turkey
NNT

VILKEN NIVÅ PÅ UPPSIDAN STÅR DET!

SÅ OM EN VÄLJER 140 OCH EN ANNAN 150 SÅ HAR DEN SENARE RÄTT MEN INTE DEN FÖRRE. 

Momentum

kollade på discovery och då hade de ett program om gubbarna som först tog fram ett mekanisk tryckeri. det var strax efter 1810, då en frnsman uppfann enn metod för mekanisk framställning af papper-robet hetter han

2 tyskar, koenig och bauer, tog fram ett metallgygt maskin för att trycka tidningar

firman finns än idag. intressant att robert, och tyskarna fick åka till london för att hitta finansiärer.

sen en tysk till clockmakare kom med linotype maskinen, som hade ett tangenbord, och som heltmekanisk gjöt rader av bokstäver från hett bly . han fick åka till jänkarlandhan

fram till dess så satte man ihop bokstäver för hand.

blybokstäverna förvarades i lådor, och den översta hette UPPERCASE. det andra, lowcase

don't be a turkey
NNT

linotype

don't be a turkey
NNT

Det ska bli intressant att se hur producenterna kommer att agera.

Tidigare hade OPEC problem med att vissa länder producerade över kvoterna. Alla visste att om priset gick upp skulle vissa passa på att producera lite extra. Så höll det på i 20 år, och det fanns inga särskilda förväntningar på uppgångar.

Nu är det en helt annan situation där majoriteten tycks förvänta fortsatt uppgång. På kortare sikt har vi ett spekulationstryck som inte funnits innan, men det viktigaste är väl kanske hur producenternas strategier förändras.

För varför ska man producera nu, om man inte har stort behov av pengarna, och om det blir ännu dyrare i framtiden? Är det inte smartare att hålla igen och spara resurserna till framtiden, när vi får ut mer?

Och kanske ska vi inte ens exportera så mycket? Om energin utgör en större andel av priset för att producera, varför ska vi inte då se till att kapa åt oss av produktionen? Vi måste ju ändå börja producera annat än olja förr eller senare. Vi hade inte någon större fördel innan när oljan var billig, men nu... Aluminiumsmältverk som i #31 är ju klockrent. Kina har billig arbetskraft, men kanske blir det helt nya regioner som tar över som världens verkstad.

Vi har inte sett så mycket sådana tankegångar än, men det skulle vara underligt om de inte ökade markant med tiden. Sedan kommer förstås frestelsen att förstatliga bli allt större. Ska bli spännande att se hur jänkarna kommer att reagera på den utvecklingen... 

Today's Featured Article

Unsolved Contango Mysteries
By Phil Flynn



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About the Author
Who knew? What did they know? And when did they know it? No, I am not talking about the Soviet style show trial in Washington with oil company executives. What I am talking about is who knew about the upcoming adjustments to the International Energy Agency's long-term supply forecast. It's obvious based on the markets quick dramatic move from backwardation to contango over the last few weeks that someone had a very good idea that the IEA was about to make a major announcement. This week I have been asking why the market in just a few short weeks had this sudden epiphany that the world was running out of oil. I have been asking why oil in the deferred contracts had an almost unprecedented gain of almost $8 a barrel on the front month contracts in just a few weeks. Now I think we all know why. Obviously some one knew something.

In a shocker that the International Energy Agency is lowering their long-term oil supply forecast for oil production raising fears that oil production will not be able to keep up with future demand. The kicker is that the IEA says that oil companies will only produce 100 million barrels of oil a day in 2030, which is 16 million barrels a day lower than their previous forecast. The IEA has been analyzing more than 400 oilfields that provide more than two thirds of crude today to determine how much they are likely to produce in the future.) The Journal says that "for several years, the IEA has predicted that supplies of crude and other liquid fuels will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day currently". Now the agency is worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to surpass 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.

That is why Washington that oil companies need to make record profits. Because what this says that is oil companies are going to meet the oil demand needs of the future we will need record investment and much more than we originally thought. If oil companies are not making those profits investment dollars may end up going else ware leaving our national security and energy security more fragile. 




Has the market finally priced in peak oil... again? Welcome back to the world of oil market contango where the far out futures are trading at a higher price than the front end of the market. One of the reasons why we kept hearing that oil has made this unprecedented and historic run was that the world was running out of oil. Of course you had to wonder if that was indeed the reason then why in heavens name were the further out futures contracts trading as much as a ten dollar discount to the front month contracts. The far out futures which are supposed to have mystical powers of predicting the future were actually signaling lower prices in the far out future ignoring the buying frenzy that was basically confined to the front end of the crude oil curve. If the world was running out of oil than why was cheaper next year as opposed to this year? If we had less then should it not cost more? Well that was at least until yesterday when the market after the fronts wild bull ride somehow decided that yes indeed we are running out of oil and it decided that, well official basically yesterday.

Of course what use is this for the normal human being? Seeing that until yesterday the market was in backwardation (a phenomena where the front month futures contracts trade at a premium or higher price to the back month futures) one must wonder if this signals just more wild bullishness to come or should we worry that the change is a sign that at long last a top is near in the front end of the oil curve. Because lets face it if the backwardation signaled a falling market as oil futures rallied almost $50 a barrel from the low perhaps the switch to contango could signal the opposite.

When I got bullish oil when we were trading the twenties my critics said you can not be bullish oil because we were in backwardation and the far out futures are signaling lower prices. If you believed the backwardation you would have been bearish when you should have been bullish. The same was true for recent times.

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So maybe the change to contango is a significant sign that perhaps we are closer to the end of the run at least in the front end of the market. What it also could be signaling is that right now that demand for oil is much weaker than expected.

Oil supply is plentiful and the truth is demand is lousy here in the US yet stronger than expected growth numbers in Europe and business confidence in Europe is showing that they have been shielded somewhat by the strong Euro. Still that may not matter as the market is betting on more dollar weakness. Oil got a boost by the fact that the June contract was expiring and inflation fears gripping the globe. The Dollar got pummeled on the perception that inflation wary Europe would not cut rates putting further pressure on the weak dollar. Of course in a weird way that may fuel more inflation as the weak dollar is actually a major cause of a lot of the inflation in the first place. If Europe stays behind our curve it is the classic catch 22. The bottom line is that if Europe raises rates it will hit the dollar harder thereby driving up commodity prices putting more pressure on over all inflation. Europe's tough stance on inflation may actually create more inflation.

So if the world is indeed running out of oil and oil producers cannot keep up with demand then what is one to do? Ah yes, that's the ticket! Sue OPEC! That's right! That would be your first and brightest thought. Well at least that's what the US House of Representatives Brightest thought was. The House passed a bill that would subject OPEC oil producers to the same antitrust laws that US companies to follow. Now all we have to do is get the OPEC boys to come to court and watch those oil prices come tumbling down.


About the Author

Phil Flynn is Vice President, Energy and General Market Analyst with Alaron Futures and Options and is one of the world's leading energy market analysts. Phil heads the Alaron Energies Futures Brokerage Division offering brokerage services to individual investors, professional traders and institutions. Phil provides up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

Phil and his energy team were one of the first to predict that global crude oil prices would exceed $30/barrel in the year 2000, a correctly predicted market milestone that has highlighted the economic scene in the new millennium. Phil also called the rise of retail gas prices in 2001. Most recently, Phil Flynn has again accurately predicted that global crude oil prices would reach close to $40/barrel ($39.99/barrel) in 2004. Through hundreds of media interviews, Phil Flynn and Alaron Futures and Options have become familiar names in living rooms and boardrooms worldwide. The world's print, broadcast, online media and small businesses have come to rely on Phil's accurate and animated forecasts, analysis, speculative and hedging opportunities.

Mvh spear of destiny

#39

Är det oljans "spear of destiny" man ser rödmålat på bilden eller?

Nja, det tror jag inte. Ville bara påvisa volatilitetens utveckling.  

Mvh spear of destiny