Djia mot 11000?

 

The Road To Revulsion
by James Montier

"We have seen the heads of virtually all financial institutions stand up over the last few months and claim the worst is behind us. Why would anyone listen to these people? They didn't see the disaster coming, and yet somehow they are qualified to tell us it is all alright! Perhaps I am just unduly sceptical, but this reeks of a conspiracy of optimism. The recession has barely started, let alone reached its nadir. The market moves of late have all the hallmarks of a classic sucker's rally. This isn't discounting the recovery, this is denial! Far from being behind us, the worst may well still be ahead!"  

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Follow the Leader?If One Can Be Found

The concept of leadership in the equity market is a bit of an ephemeral one. After all, it?s the ultimate in self-fulfilling analysis: stocks that are doing well continue to do well. But there?s no question that investors look for it as an indication that the market is healthy.

Right now, the market doesn?t have any leadership. For the month-to-date, seven of the 10 industry sectors as classified by Standard & Poor?s are down, and none of the three positive sectors have gained more than 0.5%.

Analysts say that the dearth of an area of the markets motivating buying interest is discouraging risk-taking and dampening volume, leading to the range-bound malaise that?s been the pattern for several weeks.

"The way the market is acting, nobody wants to buy anything," says Tony Dwyer, market strategist at FTN Midwest Securities. "Nobody wants to get involved and what that leads to is less volume and greater whipsawing, more volatility."

Part of the current problem, strategists say, is that the market may be transitioning from sectors that had been successfully leading the market higher, particularly the energy and materials stocks, to other areas that have not been performing well.

But investor attempts at identifying which sectors will outperform have been thwarted ? witness the short-lived rallies in consumer-discretionary stocks and the beaten-down financials.

"Everybody wants to be the guy who buys at the low, who gets the trade of a year and a lifetime," says Linda Duessel, equity market strategist at Federated Investors. "So they buy these ? like cyclicals ? which ought to start working again. And then you get the news that retail sales aren?t any good, and this or that financial services company is going under, and it throws water on the whole thing."

Those conflicting economic signals are precisely what keeps investors caught in limbo. Each session brings its combination of good news (such as Tuesday?s earnings reports from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Best Buy), but tends to be offset by worrisome issues, such as high oil prices, the unpredictable dollar, lackluster jobs data, and rising rates.

"It just seems like right now that the market is in a mixing bowl," says Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson. "Analysts now are pretty confused as to what second quarter earnings are going to look like, and consequently what we?ve seen, other than the big selloff in financials, is a minor rotational selloff among the other nine sectors."

And that kind of activity isn?t going to inspire anyone.

Från THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

................................

SE bild

McHugh is big fan of Hindenburg Omens and is constantly watching them. As the name implies, they aren't good, and therefore fit in perfectly with his view of the world.

Unfortunately, there have been three since June-6. Apparently, one Omen is a warning, but two or several close together is a confirmed Omen with very negative implications. 

 Cash is king.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Djia bröt under senaste low...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Att bevaka transport.

The poor trading may continue to spell bad news for the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which is in danger of dropping through significant resistance levels, according to analysts at Asbury Research. They identify the 5073 level on the DJTA as the one to watch (of late it was at 5088).

"If it is broken, it would imply that investors are betting on an economic slowdown going into the second half of the year, and would suggest that the October 2007 downtrend in the US stock market is resuming," they write.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Djia stängning under 12000 bekräftar fortsätt nedgång 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#4

Transport under 5073

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Djia

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 Djia...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#0

Lite inside information hjälpte ...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

behövdes inte, det räcker att använda TA

frågan är vad man gör med sina grafer 

don't be a turkey
NNT

#54 av:
dragspel
2008-04-05 12:38

[ Ta bort ]
Inlägget/kommentaren är äldre än 90 dagar.


då får vi titta hur det gick till på 70-80talet när latinamerika krisen satte jänkarbankerna i teknisk konkurs

sp studsade på ma100-200, ibland långt under-typ 74

översatt i dagens kurser så är det ma100 @1220, ma200 @970 i månad

låt oss be för ma100

på uppsidan är 1428 en absolut gräns på månadsbasis och going down

"Bach divine machine à coudre"
Colette


Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Bra inlägg [2] Bryter mot AG's skrivregler [0] 
 

don't be a turkey
NNT

gimme cliks, folks 

don't be a turkey
NNT