ITF Interim Report on Crude Oil
Rapporten är från juli 2008
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Fundamentals have changed in important ways during the past few years. Demand for oil has shifted upward, reflecting strong economic growth in commodity-intensive, emerging market economies, notably China, India and the Middle East. Some nations provide subsidies that hold down fuel prices, thereby further boosting oil consumption. At the same time, supply has not kept pace. World oil production has increased only slightly over the past few years. Consequently, oil prices have risen to keep world oil consumption in line with production (the two must be equal aside from changes in inventories). As oil demand is very insensitive to moves in oil prices in the near term, the rise in oil prices has been disproportionately large in order to offset the robust, income-driven rise in demand. In addition, the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar also has contributed somewhat to the increase in the dollar price of oil.
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