USA makro
New home construction near a 17-year lowupdated 8:41 a.m. ET Aug. 19, 2008Font size: However July?s performance was better than analysts expectedWASHINGTON - The government says that construction of homes and apartments fell in July to the lowest level in more than 17 years.
The Commerce Department report says that builders in July broke ground on 965,000 housing units on an annualized basis. That was down from a pace of 1.08 million in June and the weakest showing since March 1991.
However, July?s performance was better than analysts expected. Wall Street economists forecast that housing starts would drop to a pace of 950,000.
Högsta inflationen i USA på 27 år (2008-08-19 14:44)
Producentpriserna i USA steg 0,7 procent i juli, jämfört med månaden före. Jämfört med samma månad föregående år steg priserna 9,8 procent, vilket är den högsta årstakten sedan juni 1981.
Analytiker hade räknat med att priserna skulle stiga med 0,6 procent jämfört med månaden före, och stiga med 9,3 procent jämfört med samma månad 2007, enligt Bloomberg News genomsnittsprognos.
Kärn-PPI, exklusive livsmedel och energi, steg 0,7 procent jämfört med månaden före. Analytikerna hade väntat sig att kärn-PPI skulle stiga 0,2 procent. Jämfört med samma månad 2007 steg kärn-PPI 3,5 procent. Analytikernas förväntningar var 3,2 procent.
Energipriserna steg med 3,1 procent i juli, bensinpriserna sjönk 0,2 procent.
I juni steg producentpriserna med 1,8 procent, medan kärn-PPI steg 0,2 procent jämfört med månaden före.
Five-Year Swap Spread Tops 100 on Risk Aversion
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Interest-rate derivatives are showing that investors are preparing for another round of turmoil in credit markets amid renewed concern that the U.S. will have to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
``Risk aversion is continuing in the market,'' said Suvrat Prakash, an interest-rate strategist in New York at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a unit of France's largest bank. ``These firms really may very well be closer to insolvency than we thought.''
Mvh, /Leif
Bostadsbyggandet i USA sjönk 11,0 procent i juli, jämfört med månaden före, till en säsongsjusterad årstakt på 965.000 bostäder. Analytiker hade räknat med att byggandet skulle ha sjunkit 9,9 procent, till en årstakt på 960.000 bostäder, enligt Bloomberg News snittprognos.
Antalet bygglov sjönk samtidigt med 17,7 procent jämfört med månaden före, till en årstakt på 937.000 (väntat 970.000).
I maj uppgick bostadsbyggandet till en årstakt på reviderade 1.084.000 bostäder (1.066.000).
Byggandet av flerfamiljshus minskade 32,4 procent, till en årstakt på 324.000 medan byggandet av enfamiljsbostäder minskade 5,2 procent, till en årstakt på 641.000.
(DI 2008-08-19 14:35)
[BRIEFING.COM] Just hitting the wires, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales in July rose 3.1% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted 5.00 million annual rate, which follows the 2.8% decline in June. Economists expected sales to increase 1.1% to 4.91 million.
Existing home sales are down 13.2% year-over-year, and have a inventory supply of 11.2 months, compared to the 2007 average inventory supply of 8.9 months. The median sales price fell 1.3% month-over-month to $212,400, and is down 7.1% compared to last year.
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Svårt att tala om hyfsad statistik när det gäller amerikanska bostadssektorn just nu. Däremot kunde de tas som förevändning till ett litet rally om marknaden är på det humöret. Dvs, ifall man vill läsa in en att situationen stabiliserar sig. Borde strömma in en del kapital därför att vi är i slutet av månaden. Men bristen på momentum gör att det mer känns som om marknaden möjligen toppar idag eller imorgon och sedan faller.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home prices fell a record annual 15.9 percent in June, but the monthly rate of decline slowed from May which suggested the decimated housing sector may be stabilizing, according to Standard & Poor's on Tuesday.
"While there is no national turnaround in residential real estate prices, it is possible that we are seeing some regions struggling to come back, which has resulted in some moderation in price declines at the national level," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, in a statement.
Konfindensindikatorn för de amerikanska hushållen steg mer än väntat i augusti.
De amerikanska hushållens konfidensindikator steg till 56,9 i augusti, enligt Conference Boards mätning. Indexsiffran för månaden före uppgick till oreviderade 51,9. Analytikernas förväntningar pekade mot ett index på 53,0 i augusti, enligt Bloomberg News snittprognos. (DI)
"Nästa gång den amerikanska centralbanken ändrar sin styrränta kommer det att innebära en höjning. Tidpunkten för denna åtgärd är dock mer oklar.
Det framgår av protokollet från Federal Reserves penningpolitiska möte den 5 augusti, som publicerades på tisdagen, enligt Bloomberg News.
Av protokollet framgår att ett flera ledamöter oroades för att inflationen inte kommer att minska nästa år, ifall att penningpolitiken inte åtstramas mer än vad de finansiella marknaderna för tillfället räknar med. Samtidigt rådde enighet om att tidpunkten för den eventuella räntehöjningen kommer att avgöras av den ekonomiska och finansiella utvecklingen.
Vidare framgår det av protokollet att stora delar av den amerikanska ekonomin, däribland exporten, har det tufft och att centralbanken hela tiden försöker balansera målet med låg inflation och målet med en tillväxt som maximerar sysselsättningen i ekonomin." (Direkt)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-first-reported 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, as consumer spending and net exports were more robust than initially estimated and inventories fell less sharply, a government report showed on Thursday.
Gross Domestic Product or GDP for the April-June period was first reported as growing at a 1.9 percent rate. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting the annual rate to be revised to 2.7 percent.
GDP grew at a sluggish 0.9 percent rate in the first quarter after a 0.2 percent contraction in the final three months of 2007. The fourth quarter of last year was the weakest since July-September 2001, when the economy was in recession.
Consumer spending, which fuels two-thirds of the U.S. economy, grew at an upwardly revised 1.7 percent rate rather than the 1.5 percent pace first reported.
Meanwhile, exports grew at a 13.2 percent annual rate instead of the 9.2 percent pace initially estimated.
Many analysts believe that exports and consumer spending, which have helped the economy skirt recession, are likely to taper off in the second half of the year as spending from government stimulus checks dries up and weakening global growth and a stronger U.S. dollar crimp demand from abroad.
In evidence the severe housing slump continues to weigh on the economy, residential construction was down by an annual 15.7 percent pace, slightly more than the 15.6 percent decline reported earlier.
Meanwhile, inventories dipped at an annualized $49.4 billion in the quarter, rather than the $62.2 billion drop first reported, a possible sign that businesses are less pessimistic than believed.
Lagging Incomes Signal U.S. Economy Weaker Than GDP Suggests
mvh spx970
" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008,(that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.
Before we all get really excited about this, let's take a look at how we get the 3.3% number.
The GDP number is the end result of the following sub-areas.
Personal consumption expenditures: these are responsible for 1.24 of the 3.3% increase or 37.57% of the total. However, let's remember we had the government stimulus checks hit the economy last quarter. Without the stimulus checks, personal income growth would have been stagnant.
Gross Private Domestic Investment: this category was responsible for -1.82 of the 3.3 growth figure. In other words, this category completely eliminated any growth from personal consumption expenditures (which were also rigged higher by stimulus checks). So after these two figures, we have a net change -.58
Exports: This was the big reason for the change in the number. Exports were responsible for 3.10 of the increase -- or 93% of the 3.3% change. When we look a bit deeper into these numbers, we see that exports rose 13%. That's good. But imports dropped 7.6%. That's one of the biggest drops in a long time and indicates demand is dropping in the US. That's not good.
Government expenditures: are responsible for .76 of the 3.3 number or 23% if the increase. When government spending is responsible for nearly 25% of your GDP growth, you have big problems.
On the domestic side, we have an increase in consumer spending that was juiced with government stimulus. Domestic investment subtracted from growth.
On the trade side, a big drop in imports led to a larger increase in exports.
In other words, the great growth rate is the result of a mathematical construct, not solid growth.
mvh spx970
" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet
# 10-11
Stort tack för dessa inlägg! Du hittade den analys som jag hade velat infoga ifall jag bara hade haft tid att leta upp dem. Alltid intressant att analysera komponenter bakom ett mätetal och det finns helt klart ingenting som talar för att konjunkturen i USA skulle vara på väg uppåt. Exporten kommer säkert fortsättningsvis att gå bra, på bekostnad av europeiska företag eftersom det är den svaga dollarn som är orsaken, men större delen av amerikanska ekonoin är konsument- och hemma marknad så det förmår inte rädda ekonomin i sin helhet.
:-)))
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Privatkonsumtionen i USA steg med
0,2 procent i juli, jämfört med föregående månad. Samtidigt
sjönk de privata inkomsterna 0,7 procent.
Det visar statistik från det amerikanska
handelsdepartementet.
Analytiker hade räknat med att konsumtionen skulle
öka med 0,2 procent och att inkomsterna skulle sjunka med 0,2
procent, enligt Bloomberg News snittprognos.
I juni steg privatkonsumtionen med oreviderade 0,6
procent jämfört med föregående månad. Inkomsterna steg med
reviderade 0,1 procent.
Sparandet uppgick i juli till 1,2 procent av de
privata inkomsterna, jämfört med oreviderade 2,5 procent
månaden före.
Index för kärninflationen, (core PCE), steg 0,3
procent jämfört med i juni och noterades 2,4 procent över
nivån under samma månad året innan.
Analytiker hade väntat en prisökning med just 0,3
procent jämfört med i juni, och 2,4 procent på årsbasis. I
juni uppmättes kärninflationstakten till oreviderade 2,3
procent.
Inflationstakten enligt PCE-deflatorn var 4,5 procent
i juli, jämfört med samma månad 2007, jämfört med reviderade
4,0 procent månaden före (4,1)./SP-KBR
U.S. Consumer Spending Slows, Inflation Accelerates
mvh spx970
" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet
Oväntat nöjda inköpschefer i Chicago (2008-08-29 15:59)
Index från inköpscheferna i Chicago steg till 57,9 i augusti, från oreviderade 50,8 månaden före. Det rapporterar Bloomberg News. Analytikerna hade räknat med ett index på 50,0, enligt Bloomberg News genomsnittsprognos.
Prisindex sjönk till 80,6 i augusti från 90,7 månaden före.
Produktionsindex steg till 63,4 från 49,2, index över nya order steg till 60,2 från 53,5, medan orderboksindex steg till 63,0 från 45,7. Lagerindex sjönk till 52,2 från 54,9.
Sysselsättningsindex sjönk till 39,2 från 45,9.
Eonomic numbers - can any be trustet?
If you believe this "report" from the BEA your IQ must be smaller than your shoe size.
mvh spx970
" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet
Citat från länken "Including $160 billion in stimulus checks, which incidentally, is about 1% of GDP." Dvs, att BNP-tillväxten exklusive denna stimulans hade varit rejält negativ i USA.
...
Consumer spending was reported to be slow in most Districts, with purchasing concentrated on necessary items and retrenchment in discretionary spending. Districts reporting on auto sales described them as falling or steady at low levels. Tourism activity was mixed but received support from international visitors in several Districts, and the demand for services eased in most Districts. The transportation industry was also adversely affected by rising fuel costs. Manufacturing activity declined in most Districts but improved somewhat in Minneapolis and Kansas City. Most Districts reported that residential real estate markets remained soft. Commercial real estate activity was slow in most Districts, and some reported further slackening in demand for office and retail space. Most Districts reported easing loan demand, especially for residential mortgages and consumer loans; lending to businesses was mixed. Districts reporting on the agricultural sector noted some relief from drought conditions. Districts reporting on energy and mining activity recorded increased activity
...
Almost all Districts continued to report price pressures from elevated costs of energy, food, and other commodities, although some noted that there have been declines or slower increases in prices for several industrial commodities and energy products. Business contacts in a number of Districts indicated that they had increased selling prices in response to the high costs for their inputs. Wage pressures were characterized as moderate by most Districts amid a general pullback in hiring, although several Districts noted continued strong demand for workers in the energy sector.
mvh spx970
" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities on Tuesday released the following seasonally adjusted weekly data on U.S. chain store retail sales. WEEK ENDING INDEX 1977=100 YEAR/YEAR CHANGE WEEKLY CHANGE (percent) (percent) Aug 16 493.8 2.4 0.1 Aug 09 493.5 2.6 -1.1 Aug 02 499.2 2.9 0.0 July 26 499.2 2.6 1.2 The ICSC-UBS weekly U.S. retail chain store sales index is a joint publication between ICSC and UBS Securities LLC. It measures nominal same-store sales, excluding restaurant and vehicle demand, and represents about 75 retail chain stores.