Housing Starts
´Statistiken visar att houisng starts gick ner kraftig men den här statistiken är missledande faktumär att nedgången berodde mest på ovanlig nedgång för multiple family units i North east och som bekant Newyork city fick en ny så kalade construction code fom 1 juli och buiders föratt slippa nya tuffa regler startade många multi units i juni pga det starts gick upp krafitg i juni och nu är den tillbaka från ovanlig högnivå i juni till normala nivåer .
Nedgångs takten för starts har sjunkit krafti den senaste tiden tex i de senaste sex månaderna takten var minus 27% medan i de föregående sex månaderna takten var hela 50% ,detta beräftarmin prognos om at housing kommer och bidra POSITV till real GDP i början av 2009.
Komersiella fastigehetsmarknaden,s nedgång hmm.
berätta mer ,jur kommer det sig att denna markanden ska åt helvete ?!
GDP - liten del, men regionala banker har stor exponering mot sektorn varför ringar på vatten
The current non-residential boom has gone on a little longer than normal, probably for two reasons: 1) there was a slump in investment following the bursting of the tech bubble, and 2) loose lending standards kept non-residential investment lending strong until mid-year 2007, and it takes time to build non-residential structures.
All signs suggest that the bust is now here, and non-residential investment will probably be a drag on GDP for the next year or more.
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Ett utdrag av en artikel nedan. Sista stycket verkar sammanfatta det hela rätt bra: "The first step in the housing markets recovery will come when banks get back to the job of lending"
"NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The surprise in Tuesday's July housing starts data wasn't the sharp 11% drop. It was that any new homes were started at all.
After all, in June, builders had a 10-months' supply of unsold new houses. At the current sales pace, it would take nearly a year to clear out inventories even if Bob the builder left his hammer in the tool box for the entire time.
Supply isn't the problem in the housing market, it's the demand side of the equation that continues to falter. There's little prospect of improvement there, given the steady rise in mortgage rates, the woes besetting the Congressionally-chartered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and banks' overall reluctance to lend.
It's not that people don't want to buy homes, it's that they aren't able to.
According to a survey of consumers by the University of Michigan, the percentage of people who think it is a good time to buy a home has been rising since mid-2007. Yet the percentage of consumers planning to buy a home in the next six months has declined this year, a Conference Board survey found. According to the National Association of Home Builders, buyer traffic through new homes in August stayed at the record low set in July.
At the heart of the problem is mortgage availability, or put differently, banks' reluctance to lend. Seventy-four percent of senior loan officers surveyed by the Fed in July said their banks had tightened lending standards for prime home mortgages, from 62.3% in the April survey."
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
kreditförluster inom den komersiella fastighetssektorn i USA kommer snart öka kraftigt..
The CMBX is a CMBS (Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities) credit default index
Since its launch in March 2006 the CMBX Index of commercial mortgage-backed securities has helped cause capital inflow to the CMBS market to dry up, according to an analysis by Standard & Poor?s.
Less than two years after its debut, trading spreads have just come down from record levels, but remain high enough to deter new loan origination, according to the analysis.
Like the ABX Index in the subprime residential mortgage sector, the CMBX is often used as a proxy for the health of the overall commercial mortgage market. The movements of the yield spreads on the various series that make up the CMBX can provide a sense of the market?s current climate. Each series contains credit default swaps that are based on classes of like-rated CMBS.
While it?s often used as a gauge of the market?s health, the CMBX was primarily intended to create liquidity that participants in the CMBS could use for various trading or hedging strategies-including taking long and short positions at targeted rating levels.
"While the CMBX facilitated investment strategies that weren?t previously available, it?s only been used by a small handful of traditional investors to date," said credit analyst James Manzi, a director in Standard & Poor?s CMBS group. "
artikel
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Foresight Analytics estimates that land- and construction-loan delinquencies reached 8% in the second quarter for commercial banks, up from 7.1% in the first quarter and 2.3% in the year-earlier period.
Foresight Analytics estimates that land- and construction-loan delinquencies reached 8% in the second quarter for commercial banks, up from 7.1% in the first quarter and 2.3% in the year-earlier period.
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Commercial real estate prices continued falling in June, according to the Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI), which recorded a 3.3% monthly decline Commercial real estate prices continued falling in June, according to the Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI), which recorded a 3.3% monthly decline
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USA: Antalet påbörjade husbyggen föll 18,9 % i november
S&P/Case Schillers index visade att huspriserna i 20 storstadsområden i USA sjönk 18,7 procent i mars jämfört med samma månad 2008, väntat var minus 18,3 procent.
jag saknar haussaren metod. vart är han?
han snickrar på sitt hus, kanske
det är marknaden som står för tolkandet av nyheterna och du tradar marknaden
TWA
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Ogilla! 2
Gilla!
det blir knappast någon studsboll..
dessutom lär en kommande nedgång i den komersiella fastighetsmarknaden ta över och belasta GDP.
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