Stark US ekonomi II

Kul att du nämner 1982, vem var det som var chef för FED då? Och hur såg han på det här med inflation?

Från nisse45s inlägg i din bernake tråd

"The real hero and the one that was responsible for the bull market that started in 1982 was Paul Volcker who had the insight and the courage to raise rates, kill inflation, and strengthen the dollar. He may have been hated at the time but the Greenspan prosperity would never have occurred without Volcker. "

31 På Paul Volcker,s tid det fanns en inflation och bekämpa ,räntan var länge en hel del under potential GDP vilket var kraftig inflationary  ,han gjorde rätt i och höja räntan kraaftig och få inflationen under kontrol ,det var mitt i en kondratiev sommar .

Just nu är det vinter ,det är annorlunda och ni jämför dagensläge med 1982 !

skakar på huvet väldigt kraftig ochjag vet inte om jag ska skratta eller gråta.

Man kopplade bort dollarn från guldreserven under 80 talet  och har ändrat "hur" man räknar fram inflation allt eftersom.  Greenspan själv har sagt att "vi måste spara oss ur krisen" Men US sparar allt mindre, i stort sätt spenderas allt man producerar och lite till. Där av underskotten. Men så är inte längre fallet, från 1999 har amerikanarna spenderat mer än de tjänat.Ett företag som sköttes så illa skulle aldrig få fortsätta i det långa loppet. Detta sagt:

Generally, the household sector, or individuals, provides funds to the economy,
because individuals save part of their income, while the business sector uses those
funds to invest in plant and equipment that, in turn, serve as the building blocks for .
the production of additional goods and services.
Over the past decade, the United States experienced a decline in its rate of
saving and an increase in the rate of domestic investment. The large increase in the
nation?s current account deficit would not have been possible without the
accommodating inflows of foreign capital.

Väntar man tillräckligt kanske utländska investerare äger allt av värde i landet. Inte sagt att så är fallet just nu. Men ägandet har varit stort.
Foreigners now own slightly less than 50% of the total amount of
outstanding U.S. Treasury securities that are publicly held and traded.

När man sänkte räntorna i den grad man gjort och efter 2001 har uttflödet av utländska pengar ökat. Undantag år 2006. Detta gör att US kommer tvingas att höja räntan för att locka investerare av treasuries mm. Detta har också satt tryck på dollarn som fallit kraftigt under perioden.

Detta sägs i en rapport: Given the current mix of economic
policies, the loss of capital inflows would affect U.S. interest rates, domestic
investment, and the long-term rate of growth of the economy. Such a loss of capital
inflows would be especially troublesome if it occurred during a time when concerns
over the rate of growth in the economy were increasing. During periods when the
rate of economic growth is slowing, the Federal Reserve generally resorts to reducing
interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, the loss of capital inflows would
tend to push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to attract more capital inflows.
A reduction in the inflow of foreign investment would tend to push down the prices of stocks and
bonds and push up interest rates since those wanting credit would be competing for
a smaller pool of funds. The price of Treasury securities would fall as the Federal
government would be required to raise interest rates in order to attract domestic and
foreign investors to acquire Treasury securities, which would raise the cost of
financing the Federal government?s budget deficit.

Men vi kommer nog få se mer av nya ungdjur som vill ta över makten som ledarhanne i flocken. Det kommer provoceras en del som nu i Georgien mm.
Dom nya stormakterna kan enkelt med sina ekonomiska investeringar mycket snabbt påverka den amerikanska ekonomin. Iallafall när ekonomiska utvecklingen vacklar i US.

Om man nu tycker att detta inte påverkar så mycket kan ett datum i November 2007 kanske ses som en ledsagare:

Sudden Withdrawal from U.S. Treasury Securities. The large holdings
of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign governments have led some observers to
consider the prospect of a withdrawal from the U.S. Treasury securities market by a
single foreign government. At the first hint that a foreign government was
attempting to liquidate all or even a large part of its holdings of U.S. Treasury
securities, the price of such Treasury securities likely would plummet in U.S.
securities markets and the market rate of interest would rise, perhaps appreciably, in
the first few hours or days. For instance, on November 7, 2007, a report, that was
later repudiated, asserted that Chinese officials were considering shifting some of
China?s foreign currency reserves, reportedly worth $1.4 trillion, in dollars and in
such dollar-denominated assets as Treasury securities, out of dollar-denominated
securities. Acting on the report, investors sold securities and the dollar. As a result,
the broad Dow Jones industrial average plunged 360 points in one day and the dollar
sank against other major currencies. In response to the fall in the exchange value
of the dollar, indexes of equities markets in Europe and Japan also fell.

Vad man säger vidare är att troligen finns två senarios en väldigt snabbt utflöde ge en tillfällig utblåsning
på marknaden som sedermera skulle dra till sig investerare och flödet skulle vända. Och detta skulle
ske när dollarn bottnar och räntorna skjutit i höjden.

Alternativt detta: Should a foreign investor with large financial holdings in the United States or
a group of investors attempt to liquidate abruptly their holdings of assets such as
Treasury securities, they would experience a severe loss in the value of those assets
first as they attempted to sell their large holds in the market and then as they
attempted to convert their dollar holdings into other currencies. As a result of these
losses, it seems unlikely that a foreign investor with large holdings or a group of
foreign investors would attempt to liquidate their securities quickly. A more likely
course of action would be for foreign investors to adjust the composition of their
portfolios slowly over time. A higher level of interest rates would lead some firms to reduce their
level of borrowing and investing and spur some households to curtail their
consumption, especially of such interest sensitive products as housing and
automobiles, which usually are financed over long periods of time. Over the long
run, the lower level of investment by firms could be expected to result in a lower rate
of growth in productivity and, therefore, in a lower rate of growth in the economy.

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