Lehman Default Risk

ska inte börja bråka, men förstår inte hur /om du tänker.

En VD som tror som du, dvs. att de försvinner, han avgår eller får sparken.
Det går inte ha en hög befattning och uppdatera affärsplanen med "vi går under snart".

...eller hur tänker du?

#1

Om du tittar på bilden #0 så kan du se Lehman befinner sig i samma situation som Bear Stearn befann sig i innan denna försvann

Lehman lägge är t.om värre.

Default risk as measured by 5-year credit default swap prices är över mars high.

Trots att Fed har öppnat plånboken så blöder Lehman fortfarande. Nån måste ta över... Vem? vi får ett svar inom kort.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

mest intressant varför köpte soros lehman runt 40 dollar 

For his part, Trone said that he expects Lehman's Lehman's hedges to revert to providing gains, "albeit not of the magnitude of the first quarter 2007 through first quarter 2008 period."

Här har folk med mycket kunskap om marknaden och blev helt enkelt lurade eller lurade sig själva...

Jag kommer ihåg när Soros skrev att finans krisen är över... då tänkte direkt att han är ute och cyckla... en finans kris som vi upplever kan inte bara fösvinna på en dag eller natt...

...

Confused? So am I. Soros has been one of the most vocal critics of financial firms. The first page of his latest book warns: "We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred ... but there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion ..." Earlier this year, he described the threads of credit default swaps linking financial firms together as "a sword of Damocles that is bound to fall." Yikes.

...

Having Soros in Lehman's corner is a tremendous vote of confidence, but be careful here. If you're eager to follow Soros, it's probably better to read his outlook on financial companies, rather than follow his trading moves. He's voiced his opinion about their future, and it's terrible at best. If your only justification for owning Lehman is because Soros does, too, you might be setting yourself up for trouble. After all, he won't tell you when he plans on selling.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

gekko 

video

Perspectives on Lehman, Fannie & Freddie, with Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management managing principal 

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Lehman fortsätter falla  senaste med 44%

senaste betalt :4,06

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the worst-performer on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index this year, dropped 39 percent after three analysts said they lowered their recommendations because the firm's credit rating may be cut.  

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Lehman Brothers faller kraftigt i
den inledande handeln i New York på torsdagen och drar med
sig hela finanssektorn nedåt.

Efter cirka 15 minuters handel hade Lehman Brothers
aktie tappat 40 procent till 4:34 dollar per aktie.

Enligt Wall Street Journal ringde Lehman Brothers vd
och ordförande Richard Fuld ringde på onsdagen runt till
bankerna på Wall Street för att försäkra sig om de
fortfarande var villiga att handla med och ge kredit till den
krisdrabbade bank.

Efter att på tisdagen fallit med 45 procent på oro
för investmentbankens kapitalsituation beslutade Lehman
Brothers att det tidigare lägga sin rapport till innan
öppningen på onsdagen.

Resultatet blev betydligt svagare än väntat.
Samtidigt meddelade investmentbanken att den planerar att
sälja en majoritetsandel av sin investment management-
division, att den avser att knoppa av fastighetstillgångar
samt att den sänker sin utdelning.

Men åtgärderna för att försöka säkra upp
balansräkningen fick ett ganska svalt mottagande av
marknaden. Ladenburg Thalmanns analytiker Richard Bove skrev
i ett marknadsbrev på torsdagen att Lehmans åtgärder var ett
"skämt" men anser samtidigt att investmentbankens värde är
långt över det nuvarande aktievärdet.

I spåren av rapporten har flera
rekommendationssänkningar kommit under dagen.

Citigroup sänkte sin rekommendation till behåll från
köp efter rapporten och drog ned helårsestimatet till en
förlust om 11:32 dollar per aktie från 8:26 dollar.

Goldman Sachs sänkte sin rekommendation till neutral
från köp med motiveringen att det finns en "signifikant
osäkerhet" runt ledningens åtgärder att sälja tillgångar för
att stärka balansräkningen.

Med aktuell aktiekurs värderas Lehman Brothers, den
fjärde största investmentbanken i USA, till 3 miljarder
dollar eller 20 miljarder kronor. Det kan jämföras med att
Swedbank värderas till 59 miljarder kronor.

Aktien har med dagens fall förlorat 95 procent av
sitt värde sedan februari 2007 och handlas på samma nivåer
som när banken noterades på börsen 1994.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

LEH

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc is actively shopping itself to potential buyers including Bank of America Corp.The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday on its Web site, citing people familiar with the matter. Shares of Lehman dropped more than 40% on the day as it struggles to shore up confidence with investors and clients. Potential buyers are looking to the U.S. government to help backstop future losses at Lehman, according to the Journal.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Lehman Meltdown No Bear Stearns as Money Markets Show No Panic

Investors are showing less fear after the Fed set up special lending facilities following the Bear Stearns bailout, giving securities firms the same access to its cash as commercial banks. The ability to tap the Fed for funds means financial troubles at one investment bank are unlikely to bring down others. 

 ``We've learned that no dealer's going to fail,'' said Julian Mann, a bond manager at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles, which oversees $11 billion. ``The equity may be worthless, but the trades are honored.''

Lehman's Fuld Races to Sell Firm as Fed Balks at Funding Deal

``Lehman's sale is likely to take a different form because there was serious political fallout from the JPMorgan-Bear deal,'' said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Haverford, Pennsylvania. ``It could be a consortium that buys Lehman, with the Fed's help.''

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Lehman, aktien faller med 15%.

Kommer att ha svårt att hitta köpare...

Vi får kanske ett svar på söndag kväll...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

No Deal Reached Yet to Decide Lehman's Fate

The real fear in the discussions, this person added, was that the fire-sale prices, or "marks" of Lehman's real estate book could set off a cascade of problems for other Wall Street firms. If those marks were made against other banks' portfolios, it could eventually force those firms to raise more capital, too. For firms' considering funding the bad bank, the calculation has thus become the price of that contribution against the price of a widescale markdown.

There could be further effects to such an event, with the banks calling in loans from hedge funds and other clients, in turn setting off more forced selling that further depresses asset and securities prices.

"Unless something is settled, it's going to be a bloodbath Monday," said this person.

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Ett blodbad vore bra då skulle vi få rätta värden på olika tillgångsslag istället för detta gigantiska manipulerande. Det kallas marknadsekonomi. I en marknadekonomi ingår ju faktiskt både uppgång och nedgång av tillgångsvärden även om en del inte vill inse/acceptera detta(därav manipulationer).

Mvh naxos

Ja mycket konstigt denna "marknadsekonomi" som

* jublar åt "socialiseringen" av Freddie & Fannie

* Ränteändringar av centralbanker (ungefär som femårs-planerna i gamla sovjet, några politbyrå-människor tror sig veta vilken räntesats ska gälla under en viss tid) 

* FED ev. hjälpa Lehman Brother: mycket avgörande för "hela" världsekonomin den närmaste tiden

Känns lite lustigt, att när det blir lite tufft, måste staten ändå ingripa in och försöka skapa ordning i hönshuset.

Ingen ska klaga på dagens curlingföräldrar som fördärvar sina barn, vilka aldrig får lära sig att ta motgångar och klara sig själva. Samma sak bedriver ju staten som våran "allas" curling-moder som rycker ut när det börjar gråtas i finanshusen.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

One Wall Street executive involved in the meetings put it this way: "I'm thinking logically; if they do nothing it's Armageddon. That means they do a deal. It will be announced at 6 p.m. (ET) Sunday."

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#15 Tala om att media skapar en set-up inför måndagens börsöppning!  ;-)

Armageddon om inget avtal kommer??  (klart att något kommer att fixas ihop då!)

OK! Man frågar sig då hur ett avtal ska se ut? Och vad det leder till? Enligt Paulson kan man inte förvänta sig ngt från regeringen som med F&F

....Lördagens samtal avslutades utan något tillkännagivande, men det slutliga resultatet kan inkludera en försäljning av Lehmans "dåliga tillgångar" till en "dålig bank", i vilken konkurrerande banker kan förvärva aktier eller till och med tillåta att den att begärs i konkurs, uppger en källa till Reuters....  (Från DN ekonomi idag) 

Tala om att konstruera "paket"! Jag är för dåligt ekonomiskt bevandrad för att begripa för-resp nackdelar med en sådan åtgärd... Skriver man bara bort alla skulder eller dåliga tillgångar?? Finns det inga förlorare då, eller.....

Hålller helt med marcopolo: Det känns onekligen besynnerligt... USA anammar socialism och kanske säljer ut sig till öst dessutom.....

MVH Nisse45

#16 Jag är för dåligt ekonomiskt bevandrad för att begripa för-resp nackdelar med en sådan åtgärd 

Du är inte ensam Nisse. Frågan är om ens de närmsat inblandade kan överblicka konsekvenserna oavsett åtgärd.....om det nu blir nåt....

Jag tvivlar, för i så fall borde situationen aldrig kunnat uppstå.

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

Lehman: Barclays walks
Robert Peston 14 Sep 08, 06:11 PM

I hae learned that Barclays has pulled out of negotiations to buy most of the troubled investment bank, Lehman Brothers.

It's decision, which was described by an executive close to the negotiations as "pretty definitive and unlikely to change", is a setback for attempts to rescue Lehman, which are being coordinated by the US Treasury and the New York Federal Reserve.

Barclays has walked away because it was unable to obtain guarantees - from either the Treasury/Fed or other commercial organisations involved in the rescue attempt - in relation to financial commitments faced by Lehman when markets open tomorow. 

 BBC

Barclays of Britain has pulled out of talks to buy embattled Lehman Brothers, though Bank of America is still involved in the talks, according to several reports. 

Hur blir det nu då? Kommer FED och gänget att tvinga BofA att ta över LEH till urusla villkor eller? BofA kan ju inte få tjäna många dollar på affären för då kan andra bli sura. Men LEH-krisen måste ju lösas tycker man overthere. Så det kan bli en liten  deal där FED (hemligt) lovar att senare stödja BofA om det bli problem men utåt måste det se ut som BofA gör en risig deal.

Fast jag bara gissar......men lite spännande är det......

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

But Barclays, considered the leading contender to buy all or part of Lehman, said Sunday that it could not reach a deal without financial support from the federal government or other banks, making a liquidation more likely.

The leading proposal had been to divide Lehman into two entities, a "good bank" and a "bad bank." Under that scenario, Barclays would have bought the parts of Lehman that have been performing well, while a group of 10 to 15 Wall Street companies would agree to absorb losses from the bank?s troubled assets, according to two people briefed on the proposal. Taxpayer money would not be included in such a deal, they said.

But that plan fell apart on Sunday, making it likely that Lehman would be forced to liquidate

Det återstår Bank of Amerika nu?

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

The surprise decision leaves a consortium led by Bank of America as the only potential buyer for Lehman, whose fate remains precarious. One sourrce suggested that the move could be merely a negotiating tactic by Barclays to force US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to offer a guarantee.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Banks, Brokerages Prepare for Possible Lehman Bankruptcy, Start Net Trades  

#11

Adjö:-))

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Dollarn påbörjar sin nedgång, nästan 3 % mot EUR och SEK nu. 

Både Barclays bank och Bank of America har hoppat av läste jag på di ?

Mvh naxos

#24 Vet inte var du ser det, men på saxobank (realtid) ligger USD/SEK ner mindre än 1% 

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

#26

Avanza visar att  USD/SEK faller med 2,69%

6,68 senaste

lägst 6,64

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

USD/SEK stängde vid 6,6978 i fredags enl saxo och saxo brukar visa rätt. 

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

Ny game

Väldigt smart

Bank of America and Merrill Lynch in merger talks - WSJ - MarketWatch

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#29

Du har rätt, fallet är räknat sen torsdagskursen.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

pdf

CONDITIONAL TRANSACTIONS PROTOCOL AGREEMENT

ISDA confirms a netting trading session will take place between 2 pm and 4 pm New York time for OTC derivatives. Product classes involved are credit, equity, rates, FX and commodity derivatives. The purpose of this session is to reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. bankruptcy filing. Trades are contingent on a bankruptcy filing at or before 11:59 pm New York time, Sunday, September 14, 2008. If there is no filing, the trades cease to exist. These trades are subject to a protocol which is being distributed by ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association). Traders should execute the protocol and return to ISDA

 mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#30 Ja, nu är det dramatiskt. BOA är inte längre möliga köpare till (delar av) Lehman. De kommer kanske att köpa Merrill Lynch i stället. 

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. abandoned talks to buy Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., according to a person with knowledge of the matter, less than three hours after Barclays Plc said it wouldn't buy the faltering investment bank.

Bank of America, the biggest U.S. consumer bank, and Barclays, the U.K.'s third-largest lender, had been among the leading candidates to acquire all or parts of New York-based Lehman. The Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of America had entered into merger talks with Merrill Lynch & Co., citing unidentified people.

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - In a strange twist, Bank of America on Sunday reportedly launched merger talks with Merrill Lynch Co. after withdrawing from the bidding for Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America, which wants to acquire its own investment-banking business, had participated in negotiations over the weekend to buy part or all of Lehman. The bank withdrew after the U.S. government, which was trying to broker a deal, declined to provide financial guarantees in case Lehman's losses mushroomed in the future. Its since turned its attention to Merrill Lynch which Bank of America considers a better fit, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday in its online edition

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

#30 #34

Merrill's merging with a well-capitalized bank like Bank of America could prevent a broader fallout because most executives feel that Merrill's shares would have tanked after Lehman's decline. It is widely believed that would create a massive fallout int he overall market.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Also numbers are changing. Last night the numbers being reported by the press were that Lehman had $50bb in bad Real Estate assets. Now, suddenly a few are reporting $85bb. That makes all the difference in the world. No wonder they can?t get a deal through with their $30bb ?bad bank? idea.

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Det ser ut som om man nu gett upp hoppet om Lehman och i stället inriktar sig på att hindra att andra viktiga aktörer (Merrill Lynch, AIG) dras med i fallet. Hör jag historiens vingslag?

video

Lehman, Bank America, Merrill and Idiot Nation

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

 `Tectonic' Shift on Wall Street as Lehman Fails, Merrill Sold

Lehman, which employed 25,935 people at the end of August in 61 offices around the world, had a balance sheet totaling $786 billion as recently as February. Merrill Lynch, with 60,000 employees, is known for its ``thundering herd'' of financial advisers that brought Wall Street financial products to Main Street investors.

 Vaporized'

``I've been on Wall Street for many years, and I've never seen a weekend like this one,'' said Michael Holland, 64, chairman and founder of New York-based Holland & Co. ``We are unwinding what has been years of silliness in the financial markets, and the silliness is being vaporized as we speak, unfortunately with the stock price of a number of companies involved in it.''

To help cushion the fallout, 10 banks created a $70 billion fund to lend to firms that are having trouble financing their assets in the markets. The Federal Reserve also said it will be willing to lend money in return for a wider array of collateral including stocks.

Still, the repercussions may be widespread.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

"Kassan räcker inte till lönen"

...

- Som det verkar just nu räcker antagligen inte balansräkningen till för att betala ut några löner, säger en Lehman-banker i London som föredrar att vara anonym. 

...

Vad händer nu?
- TJa, vi får väl gå hem om någon timme. Vi är som bekant under likvidation. Nej, nu måste jag sätta mig ned och skriva ihop ett CV. Hör av dig om du ser några jobb. Det lär bli gott om bankers som kommer ut på marknaden den närmsta tiden.

...

Mvh, /Leif

Lehman Files Biggest Bankruptcy Case as Suitors Balk

There is likely to be a domino effect as other firms and individuals who relied on Lehman for financing feel the effects of its meltdown,'' said Charles ``Chuck'' Tatelbaum, a bankruptcy lawyer with Adorno & Yoss in Florida and former editor of the American Bankruptcy Institute Journal. ``The whole thing is frankly frightening for the U.S. economy.''

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

yeh:-))

mvh spx970 

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet