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Jeremy Grantham: Don't Buy Too Soon

What about equities outside the U.S.?

Things are getting cheaper. We score the EAFE [the Europe, Australasia and Far East Index] as absolutely cheap, and it's offering a 7% real annual return over seven years. Emerging-market equities are a bit cheaper, and we see a 9.5% annual real return over the same period.

The problem, though, is that we have so much downside momentum, so many financial problems and so many interlocking relationships, that it is hard to imagine this crisis subsiding because stock prices are digging in their heels and approaching fair value.

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Asked what advice he?d give to chief financial officers overseeing corporate retirement plans, Mr. Grantham said they should recognize that there are bargains to be had now in almost every corner of global equity markets ? even mouthwatering bargains

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" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

The Long Road Ahead

Our conclusion, though, that the S&P is likely to bottom out in the 600
to 800 range within the next two years can unfortunately
be seen as not particularly pessimistic from a historical
perspective.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Fair value 975 undershoot 20-40%, frågan blir ska vi göra en INT. bottom och final low nästa höst eller ska vi ta stora kliv redan nu, ingen aning. Men tänk att hela tillväxten i asien är bortblåst och på 1994 års nivåer. 2,2 miljarder människor.. WOW! 

#0

Att du skriver att HM skall ner är helt ok, inget fel med.

Och jag inte förälskat i nån aktie... för dem som läser mina inlägg vet jag skriver...

Men det du skriver #0 är fel och missvisande...

Var har du läst att Graham börjar köpa...

Läs vad Graham skriver

"Historically, when a market bubble has popped, it has almost always overcorrected. But after the tech bubble burst in 2000, the stock market didn't hit the lows it should have. Before it could, the housing bubble and tax cut that followed 9/11 kicked off the biggest sucker rally in history from 2002 to 2006. So I think the market isn't cheap yet. There is more pain coming. I don't think we'll hit the low until 2010

Därför du borde har förklarat vad Graham menar...så att alla förstår poängen med ditt inlägg...

Läs vad du skrev

En av världens mest brilliant minds börjar köpa, aktier har inte varit så billiga som nu SPX på 20- 30 år. Jeremy Grantham. Ojdå

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Jag läste igenom hans quarterly letter igår och visst skriver han att de börjar köpa nu. Detta på grund av att aktier är billigare än på många många år, (från 10 oktober). Men, Grantham poängterar att han/GMO ofta är för tidiga både med att sälja och köpa. Deras modeller indikerar dessutom att det med hög sannolikhet blir lite lägre priser framöver så det är inte tal om någon "bottom call" han gör. 

#7

Jag har också läst om att han börjar köpa redan i fredags men om man öppnar en sträng så bör man lägga alla kort på bordet...

Nästa fråga hans trategi på att köpa... och vad köpa...

inte vad som helst...

Donald Coxe också börjat köpa... och han rekar mest guld aktier, och en del råvaro aktier...

Stora pengar att hämta om 5 år skriver han...

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Så här skriver Graham

Finally! On October 10th we can say that, with the S&P at 900, stocks
are cheap in the U.S. and cheaper still overseas. We will therefore be steady buyers at these prices. Not necessarily rapid buyers, in fact probably not, but steady buyers. But we have no illusions. Timing is difficult and is apparently not usually our skill set, although we got desperately and atypically lucky moving rapidly to underweight in emerging equities three months ago. That aside, we play the numbers. And we recognize the real possibilities of severe and typical overruns. We also recognize that the current crisis comes with possibly unique dangers of a global meltdown. We recognize, in short, that we are very probably buying too soon. Caveat emptor.

mvh spx970

" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet

Jag skrev att en stor björn "började köpa aktier", inte called bottom! Att multip. började se ut som för 20-30 år sedan.

Som alltid ska man då undersöka vem är Jeremy Grantham?. Kan han ha rätt i det han säger? Do your own homework. Don't shoot the messenger.

SPX nu i 1005 och över fairvalue på 975.  rallyt nu ca 22% från low på 823. Timing is everything och glädjeyran över ny president kan snabbt ge baksmälla.