USA valet:final post
Final post:
I had one of those thoughts that there is no way Obama can win and no way the polls are right. Was I just fooling myself ??? My logic was.
1. Palin is incredibly popular among the base republican, her rallies are overcrowded. She is pulling turnout and will draw republicans to the polls
2. The pollsters in thier models give democrats a high party ID. They expect more democratic turnout and less republicans because of the Obama effect. But evidence on the ground says even in purely republican areas early voting has been higher than ususal, which confirms point 1 above. Plus these people just dont like Obama, so they are motivated to not have him there.
3. this is underreported and hard to quantify, but at places like no quarter and hillbuzz (home for Pumas and hillary supporters against Obama), the anti obama democrats are organised. The pollsters arent taking them into account which means the democratic party ID should be a lower.
and then I found this well thought out meaty analysis this morning. lots of insight. A must read. period.
negative - the youth vote may turn up this time, they are motivated. in which case I'll be drinking all day wednesday :-))