Bernanke the Great
Gud vad jag gillar den här mannen !
Han visar tydlig vad är skildnaden mellan: i första hand MIT och Combrige och Keynesianer och supply siders .
Óptimisterna tackar gud att Arthur laffer dog och tog med sig sin kurva till graven och att en MIT Kenynesian sitter som central banks chef ,bättre än så kan det inte bli.
I själva verket världesekonomin och USA har haft mycket tur och ha Bernake.
I sin senaste : Reducing Systemic Risk avslöjar Bernanke sina ideer om inflation och räntan som är exact lik mina ideer :mao räntehöjningarna dröjer och inflations farorna är låga vilket är väldigt bullish både för ekonomin och börsen.
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained a relatively low target for the federal funds rate despite an increase in inflationary pressures. This strategy has been conditioned on our expectation that the prices of oil and other commodities would ultimately stabilize, in part as the result of slowing global growth, and that this outcome, together with well-anchored inflation expectations and increased slack in resource utilization, would foster a return to price stability in the medium run. In this regard, the recent decline in commodity prices, as well as the increased stability of the dollar, has been encouraging. If not reversed, these developments, together with a pace of growth that is likely to fall short of potential for a time, should lead inflation to moderate later this year and next year.
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Från Roy Ashworth's report... 25/8 2008
....Market Timing (Updated 08/24/2008)
I don't buy conspiracy theories but it is interesting how crude prices fell two years ago before the elections and then moved higher after. The current drop in crude is primarily due to the dollar's rally. Nothing has changed fundamentally to indicate the recent dollar rally is any thing other than a bear market counter trend.
The dollars fall below multi-year support in August 2007 was due to Bernanke dropping interest rates while the stock market was at an all time high. The recent dollar rally has not been due to any known action by Bernanke. The actions of the current Fed chairman may be based on his belief that tight money caused the great depression, or he may believe that Greenspan created prosperity (and a positive place in history) with an easy money policy so lets do the same only on a greater scale.
The real hero and the one that was responsible for the bull market that started in 1982 was Paul Volcker who had the insight and the courage to raise rates, kill inflation, and strengthen the dollar. He may have been hated at the time but the Greenspan prosperity would never have occurred without Volcker.
Richard Benson {http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/benson/2008/0811.html} has an interesting article that places the cost of bailing out the financial institutions at $600 Billion. Of that $150 Billion will protect the individual depositors (the innocent). It would seem that Bernanke would save the banks from their disastrous choices and mistakes and bill it to the taxpayers through inflation.
Every one knows that the government's inflation calculation is bogus but now even those numbers are at multi-decade highs but don't expect any thing different from the Fed. The Catch-22 is that while Bernanke may save the banks how will the economy recover if consumers are spending every thing on food and energy?
Visst är han en riktig "hero"! ;-)
MVH Nisse45
eg vill han döpa strängen till 'metod the greatest' dock finns tydligen något i hans uppfostran kvar. det återstår dock att se hur länge ....
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
från the great Bernanke
"subprime is contained"? (3/07)
Or "we do not expect spillovers from the subprime markets to the rest of the economy or to the financial system"? (5/07)
Or "monetary and fiscal policies are in train that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year"? (4/08)
Or "our baseline forecast is for moderating inflation"? (7/06)
Or ".... expect energy and other commodity prices to flatten out"? (7/07
mvh spx970
" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet
#4 vad vill du säga med de här ?
Huvudsaken är hur han har gjort och motverka de negativa effekterna och är beredd och göra det fortsättningsvis.
#1
,=))))))
#6 Du kommer ju ihåg vad Greenspan sagt att han skulle göra om han såg en Kondratiev vinter ,det som han sa skulle göra Benanke både pratar om det och viktigast av allt förverkligar det .
Just därför gillar jag honom ,jätte mycket ,varför håller håller du inte med ?!
Vintern är här och Berny går i snö utan skor
#8 Det var det jag ville höra (Vinter är här) med eller utan skor han gör det som behövs och göra ,så skulle säkert Greenspan gjort oxå om han gjorde som han predika men jag är väldigt osäker om han lyssnade på sin egen predikan.
Han sa så här:om jag var entrak bank chef och upplevde en kondratiev vinter då skulle jag trycka så många dollar så möjligt .
Det har Greenspan sagt som du vet ,det är just det som benny gör ,och det är just det som är fenomenal med honom.
..det hjälper inte med nytrykta dolar iom att all grön färg är slut
Huan och Rubel behövs
#8 Det finns en 72 årig DEBT/GDP cycle som Greenspan brukade ta upp då och då ,väldigt försiktig så att man kulle kunna läsa det bara mellan raderna .
Däremot Bernake har hittils inte nämt nåt om det ,så att säga jag vet inte riktig om han tror på att vinter har kommit annars skulle han tryckt ännu mer.
Men titta på rate of change av ration som är 72 år emellan ,det blir 1930 och 2002 .
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Bernanke Fed still waiting for inflation to moderate
March 28, 2006
... inflation expectations remain contained.
May 10, 2006
... inflation expectations remain contained.
June 29, 2006
... inflation expectations remain contained.
August 8, 2006
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations...
Sep 20, 2006
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...
Oct 25, 2006
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...
Dec 12, 2006
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations...
Jan 31, 2007
... inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time.
Mar 21, 2007
Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.
May 9, 2007
Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.
Jun 28, 2007
... a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated.
Aug 7, 2007
... a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated.
Sep 18, 2007
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...
Oct 31, 2007
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...
Dec 11, 2007
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year ... some inflation risks remain...
Jan 22, 2008
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...
Jan 30, 2008
The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...
Mar 18, 2008
... some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...
Apr 30, 2008
... some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters...
There appears to be no theoretical limit on how long you can continue to expect something to happen, however, practically speaking, at some point in time, people stop believing what you say...
...
mvh spx970
" Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffet