Vix igår +8%

SP satte högre topp igen (1410) men stängde -0,01%

Bra statt från USa igår > Inga QE?

Goldman:  "Slightly Stronger Data Reduce Probability of QE3 in September"

Futures Dax/Omx ner ca 0,4%, usa futures kring noll.

 Jackson Hole Key

Focus is now on the Fed’s meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 31^st, which has become an annual check point on the state of play in the U.S. economy. Indeed, a speech by Bernanke at Jackson Hole in 2010 laid the ground work for the Fed’s bond-buying program to revive the economy – one that also triggered weakness in the dollar.

“This year’s speech is highly anticipated because the Fed appears to be on the fence when it comes to further monetary easing,” said Callow. “So when you get good numbers like the retail sales data, that does lower the chances of further quantitative easing and that is a good sign for the dollar.”

 The positive data, together with signs of improvement in the U.S. jobs market and no further bad news from the euro zone, may give Bernanke reasons to be optimistic, Lien at BK Asset Management said.

 “Originally, many economists and traders believed that Jackson Hole would be the forum at which Bernanke laid the foundation for QE3 in September. But if these improvements in U.S. data continue and Spanish bond yields remain below 7 percent, the Federal Reserve has very little reason to rush into another round easing,” said Lien, referring to a third round of expected quantitative easing by the Fed.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48669343

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Overbought but still bullish

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/overbought-but-still-bullish-2012-08-14?link=MW_latest_news

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Asian stocks traded lower Wednesday, as investors scaled back expectations of central-bank stimulus to support the global economy, with the resource and financial sectors among those declining.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.8%.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.7% while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index  lost 0.4%. The South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.

"This is a market that's up on eggshells. People I talk to are still very nervous," said Alan Valdes, director of floor operations at DME Securities.

“If [ECB President Mario Draghi] takes the disaster scenario off the table for the euro, investors can just look at the economic data—jobs report was better, retail sales were good, corporate earnings are still positive…we can move ahead,” said John Fox, co-manager of the FAM Value Fund.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48659413

Man ska inte dra någon slutsats av indexen

SP 60 min

Svedala 15 min

Hamburg Harbor Hurt as Europe Debt Crisis Hits China

Growth in Hamburg is stalling asEurope’s fiscal crisis spreads into China and other Asian countries, threatening the recovery of Germany’s biggest port.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/hamburg-harbor-hurt-as-europe-debt-crisis-hits-china.html

World shipping crisis threatens German dominance as Greeks win long game

Germany’s shipping industry faces a wave of bankruptcies over coming months as funding dries up and deepening economic woes across the world cause a sharp contraction in container trade.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9473476/World-shipping-crisis-threatens-German-dominance-as-Greeks-win-long-game.html

Greece to Exit Euro Zone Next Month?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48671308

Food Price Shocks— Is Asia Bracing for an ‘Acute’ Jolt?

Food inflation will start hurting Asian economies by the end of the year if the current high prices are sustained over the next few months, with Vietnam, China and Hong Kong the most vulnerable, economists tell CNBC.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48669561

Goldman

 "The US economic data continue to look a bit stronger. Tuesday’s retail sales report for July beat expectations, while inventory accumulation showed a further slowdown in June. Our Q3 GDP tracking estimate edged up to 2.3%. The recent news also has implications for Fed policy. While QE3 at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting remains possible, our best estimate is that it will take until late 2012/early 2013 before Fed officials return to balance sheet expansion."

Traders are pointing to the SNB as the source of this wave of euro selling. No comment from the SNB.

31. juli

SNB in a bind with euro holdings

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/07/31/snb-in-a-bind-with-euro-holdings/

Bolåneskulderna ökar bland unga
 
  Den totala bolåneskulden i Sverige har
  ökat med 72 procent sedan 2006, enligt
  en undersökning från kreditupplys-
  ningsföretaget UC. Framför allt är det
  unga i storstäder som skuldsätter sig.
 
  Villalånen har ökat med 60 procent och
  bostadsrättslånen med 121 procent.
  Bland personer i åldrarna 18-35 är
  skulderna i genomsnitt 2,7 gånger
  högre än årsinkomsten.
 
  Unga i åldrarna 18-35 med bostads-
  rättslån i Stockholm har i genomsnitt
  3,9 gånger högre skulder än
  årsinkomst.     

                      
             Källa Svt Text TV

CPI 0.0%, Exp. 0.2%

STOCKHOLM (Direkt) Affärsförhållandena för industrin i delstaten New York försämrades i augusti jämfört med månaden före. Federal Reserve New Yorks Empire State Manufacturing Index sjönk till -5,85 från oreviderade 7,39 månaden före, enligt Bloomberg News. Analytiker hade väntat en nedgång till 7,00, enligt Bloomberg News enkät. Makroredaktionen +46 8 5191 7931 Nyhetsbyrån Direkt

Biggest Empire Manufacturing miss in 14 months

Don’t Be Afraid to Bet on a Rising VIX: Najarian

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/don-t-afraid-bet-rising-vix-najarian-135701736.html

Just nu är Vix prick 14

blev fel sorry....

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.