Watching the 30 year yield.

10 Years Yield från 1994:

----------------------------
For the Love of Money

Här kan du jämföra rörelsena  med SPX  denna från 2000.

'Bond markets worldwide are under pressure again, this time because of larger-than-expected increases in core consumer prices in the month of May in both China and the U.K.'

During a speech in New York, Greenspan was quoted by press services as saying that he is not worried that foreigners will sell their Treasurys.
Greenspan, who has been nearly as visible in his retirement as he was in his Fed post, said that the benchmark yield will rise in the future and that recent yield gains have been the result of cyclical factors.
Greenspan also declared that the current liquidity flow will subside at some point.

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Greenspan Defends Economic Comments, Blames Observers

``There's a general view out there that I have more influence than I know I have,'' Greenspan said at an event hosted by the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association in New York today. ``I get accused of inducing market changes, really because I was standing next to the market when something else happens.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akFwy4jpF5Ac&refer=home

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose to the highest in five years as signs of accelerating global growth raised concern central banks will increase borrowing costs.

Yields climbed as high as 5.272 percent after reports in China and Japan showed consumer and producer prices rising, while the head of the U.K. central bank signaled borrowing costs may need to rise to keep inflation from accelerating. The Treasury sold $8 billion in 10-year notes at higher-than-forecast yields.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0VCMsT_CPJE&refer=home

bild tnx

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

TYX's relative strength

bevaka statistik torsdag och fredag... Kraftiga rörelser både upp och ner att vänta...

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Greenspan Says Low Global Long-Term Interest Rates May Not Last

``It's liquidity that is driving the world,'' Greenspan said to a conference in Mexico City. ``It will continue to be strong as long as real long-term interest rates stay low. This is not a permanent feature. It's an intermediate-term period in world economic history that has never occurred before.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDqyyP0SlMoM&refer=home



" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Geithner Says Bond Volatility May Return to `Normal'

``It's possible'' the recent jump in fluctuations marks a return to historical levels, Geithner said in responding to questions following a speech today in Singapore. ``It's hard to know what normal is in a world that's changed so much and what normal will prove to be.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWKTpoTiakQo&refer=home

" When your hairdresser starts giving you stock tips, get out quick and wait..." mvh SPX 970

Alltid samma hysteri så fort långräntorna börjar att dra. Rätt skönt att ha något för marknaden att fokusera på när det är torka på nyheter, rapporter etc.

#1 Där ser man att SPX & kraftigt stigande TNX kan gå hand i hand, men även tvärtom. Beror helt enkelt på vart i konjunkturcykeln vi befinner oss.

#0 Kan du förklara hur räntekostnaderna stiger 12% vid en räntestegring på 1%? För de flesta som faktiskt har långa bundna lån händer inget alls, innan de ska binda om såklart. Men 12% = 1%? 

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

#9 Det där förstår t.o.m jag ;-)

Om räntenivån stiger från 8,5% till 9,5% så ökar räntekostnaden med 12% eftersom 9,5/8,5=1,12. 

mvh

PS: Du som har AG-Pro kan kostnadsfritt testa min Rysslands-grupp.

#10 Ah, man tänkte så :D Haha. Ja men då är ju en hemsk ränteuppgång från 2% till 4%, som vi faktiskt sett, hela 100% ränteuppgång? ;) Låter så överdramatiskt. Faktum är ju att lånet kostar 1% mer av skulden per år, där dessutom ränta kan dras av så netto blir inte effekten lika stor. I Sverige där vi ligger på 4% räntor kalkyleras bolånen hem på 8% innan lån beviljas.

Men de e klart, ska man skrämmas så lär man ta i. Ang. 30-åringen så följer jag mer 10-års. Den tror jag toppar ur på c:a 5,50% mkt snart.

|StRY| "Caveat emptor. Buyer beware."

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.