SPX vecka 47

Vågräkningen har du koll på, liksom bredd o annat nyttigt....

Jag fick en köpsignal i P&F-diagrammet idag....när 1108 passerades

Jag ser ett motstånd redan vid ca 1120, men annars är potentialen mot 1133.

MVH Nisse45 

Efter en halvtimme (1600) var index upp 1,36 aiss 97% avol 97%  70/0

 Fin bredd och uppvol i starten.

 Omsättningen har jag inte riktigt koll på ännu men återkomer senare.

Kl1900

spx +1,60 aiss 93% avol 91%  92/0

rut +2,67 aiss 88% avol 80% 

Fortfarande bra bredd och uppvol  men omsättningen är fortfarande väldigt

låg jag fortsätter min defensiva räkning ända tills jag får bevis på att vi fått med

dom stora för det måste till för att vi skall kunna visuellt radera alla divergenser

och få till en längre stabilare uppgång.

kl19

 spx -0,27 aiss 27% avol 39%  39/0 

Omsättning lägre än igår här finns inga tecken på någon större nedgång

säljarna finns inte dom större pappren som styr index säljs inte.

Tendensen är att i väntan på bättre tider så fuskar man bort tiden.

The Effect of Stimulus

A $trillion in stimulus (not counting bank bailouts) and other stimulus measures not labeled "stimulus" because everyone is getting tired of the word, only got us 2.5%-3.0% of GDP growth.

Heightened appetite for risk does not mean that credit problems have gone away as we see the global speculative-grade corporate default rate rise 12 basis points in October, to 9.71%. And Fitch just published a report indicating that the U.S. banks can expect to see 10% of their $1.1 trillion of direct commercial real estate loans default and that the regional banks can expect to see "significant" cuts in their credit ratings.

DOWNGRADE TO GROWTH FORECASTS? THAT DOES SEEM TO BE THE CASE

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Fisher suggested yesterday that the Q3 real GDP print will be taken down from 3.5% at an annual rate to 2.5% ? despite massive government stimulus. (Is that all you get for your money?) And the Philadelphia Fed survey of professional forecasters shows that this collection of 41 economists just took down their 2010 Q1 GDP call to 2.3% from 2.5% and for next year?s Q2 to 2.4% from 2.8%.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is currently trading as if the economy is going to expand at nearly a 5.0% rate in the coming year. If the consensus is right, then fair-value in the S&P 500 is closer to 900 than it is to 1,100. This by no means suggests that the speculative run is over; it only means that the folks allocating their capital to the stock market today do not adhere to the adage of ?buying low and selling high? and are very likely the same folks who were buying at the top back in 2007 when "excess liquidity" themes were all the rage.

fan

"Luck is when preparation meets opportunity" Seneca

Right on Schedule: Revisiting 3 Stages of Bear Market Rally
By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing
November 17, 2009

Here are three stages of bear market rallies we identified. As you?ll notice, at the end, all signs point to the current rally coming to an end sooner than later.

Stage 1: "This will never turn around."
The first stage of a bear market rally starts when we get the first signs of a turnaround. This happens when everyone thinks it will never turn around. We hit that point in early March. Since then the markets have been so beat up in such a short period of time that any bit of good news can get things rolling higher again.

As the "Obama rally" turned into a sucker?s rally, each passing week brought progressively worsening economic news. There was nothing to look forward to. Expectations were low and headed lower.

We hit this point in March and once the market started moving up on "not as bad as expected" news, it was clear a bear market rally had begun. And since the S&P 500 was down more than 55% from its 2007 highs, the set-up was in place for an extended, sharp, and lucrative rally.

Stage 2: It?s a Bear market rally, "The easy money has been made."

This is the stage where you?ll see most commentators admit we?re in a bear market rally. Many of them freely cite some warning about the coming rally they issued and it was to be expected. Most of them go on to warn this is a bear market rally and advise against buying now.

By May 9th, two months into the rally, the S&P was up 36%. That?s a decent return for two years in a good market. In two months, it?s downright fantastic.

By this time no one could deny the rally was real. Anyone, however, could quite easily make a case where the rally had gone too far, too fast and it was too late to get in.

This is also the stage where volatility plays a greater role. The markets quit bounding up day after day and there were real corrections (at least 5%) just to keep the herd on the sidelines.

Stage 3 - "All clear! Don?t miss this."

This is the final stage. It?s when the bear market has been forgotten by most investors. It?s when the "panic buying" sets in as the big money fears 1) it has missed all the chances to buy low, 2) their performance will suffer, and 3) customers will take their money elsewhere.

To make up for lost time, they buy more aggressively than ever. This is an extremely profitable stage. Yet when the big money runs out of cash to buy shares, watch out, the end of a bear market rally is near.

The clearest indicator we?re in the third and final stage is the stagnating upward momentum. The S&P 500 rose 36% in the first two months of the rally. It rose a respectable 13% in the next three months. It rose 6% in the last three months.

The rally appears to be running out of steam. At this time, however, most investors feel more comfortable buying stocks than they have since the rally began. GDP is up, earnings are up, and corporate executives are issuing positive guidance about their near-term growth prospects (most refused to even venture a guess last year).

The "all clear" has been sounded by executives, analysts, and many others. And investors continue to put more money to work (or, from our philosophy, at risk). Last week was the 34th week in a row in which investors put more money into mutual funds than they took out.

As for the aggressive, panic-style buying we expected, it has been largely masked by the rebound in share prices. For instance, a mutual fund manager who wants to buy 10 million shares of Bank of America only had to put up $40 million in March. A few weeks ago, the same stake would cost $180 million. As a result, a lot more money may be going in, but it?s having a significantly less noticeable impact.

It?s Never Different This Time

As this rally shows greater and greater weakness, the risk and reward situation continues to turn against going "all in" now.

Also, since most of them have the wind at their backs and a renewed confidence, they?re sure they will be able to achieve the nearly impossible and get out at the top.

Kl 1900

spx -1,61 decl iss 94,8 % decl vol 93,4%  6/0

ndx -1,91            96                     91,5    2/0

rut  -2,5              93,2                  87,2    9/6

Siffrorna säger ju att det är surt men omsättningen är låg.

Jag tolkar det som att det finns inga köpare längre . Då tar man hem lite vinster

men sånt här kan ju accellerera det är bra att ha koll på

baskomponenten omsättningen stiger den så är det möjligt att det blir en större

rekyl som vi väntat på ?!?!   ;)

#7 klarar du att summera texten på en rad? Hinner inte läsa nu..:) 

Möjligt tanke så länge vi har dessa låga omsättningar . 

#10 Ja... då kanske man kan få se SPX upp mot fib 0,62/log vid 1135 där vi också har en trendlinje som möter. 

Mvh, /Leif